The ECB was established during the third phase of the economic and monetary union and its activities launched on 1. 7. 1998. It has become a new independent institution whose primary task became the conduct of monetary policy for countries that have accepted the euro currency. This master thesis examines the impact of monetary policy of the euro area and its asymmetric effects. ECB affects individual national economies using its strategies and instruments. Using especially interest rates makes monetary policy expansive or restrictive. For every country, belonging to euro area, has this policy different implications. Although ECB attempts to implement monetary policy for every country equally, for some countries has a monetary policy asymmetric effect. Using the Taylor rule of monetary policy, we can find contradictory effects of monetary policy.

While numerous studies have investigated the impact of oil prices on the stock market, Chapter 2 is the first to examine the association between corporate bond yields and oil returns. We examine the association between oil-returns and corporate bond yields of four major U.S. industrial and financial sectors (including thirteen sub-sectors). Chapter 3 examines the reaction of stock markets in the U.K. and the Netherlands to a major composite event in the oil industry – the merger of the Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA) and the BG Group (BRGYY) on April 8, 2015, and the subsequent discovery of oil in southern England on April 9. We employ an exponential autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic (EGARCH (1, 1)) framework in both Chapters, which allows for asymmetry of the effects between positive and negative external shocks including oil return shocks, shows the effects on both the yields/stock returns and their volatilities, and permits the persistence of the shocks to be measured. Three main results are obtained in Chapter 2. First, oil returns are significantly associated with the yield levels of corporate bonds issued in ten out of the thirteen sub-sectors considered within the oil-substitute, oil-related, oil-user, and financial services sectors. The three exceptions are the Petroleum Refinery, Building, and Chemical sub-sectors. Second, the return volatilities of corporate bonds issued in the Plastic & Rubber sub-sector demonstrate asymmetric responses to positive and negative shocks. To elaborate, negative shocks lead to lower volatility in the Plastic & Rubber sub-sector than positive shocks of the same magnitude. Third, the half-life, or the time it takes for the volatility of the portfolio of bonds in the Industrial Machinery sub-sector to move halfway back to its conditional mean after a shock is introduced, is 8.6 months. For bonds in all other sub-sectors, the half-life is less than 2.5 months. We obtain several results in Chapter 3. First, the composite event of merger and oil discovery generated significant abnormal returns in six out of the thirteen sub-sectors considered in the U.K. and three out of ten sub-sectors in the Netherlands. The remaining seven sub-sectors in the U.K. and the other seven sub-sectors in the Netherlands show no sensitivity in returns to the shock. Second, there is evidence of some information leakage about the composite event as demonstrated in the significant abnormal returns for Coal, Oil & Gas Extraction, Depository Institute, Chemical and Plastic & Rubber sub-sectors in U.K. and Coal, Depository Institute and Air Transportation sub-sectors in the Netherlands up to three days before the announcement of the composite event. Third, the behavioral patterns of four of the thirteen sub-sectors considered in the U.K. and four of the ten sub-sectors considered in the Netherlands demonstrate asymmetry in response to external shocks to their respective returns. These results have three main implications. First, investors holding bonds issued by the two sub-sectors with asymmetric oil shock effects need to add bonds from oil-related and oil-substitute sectors to lower the volatility of their bond portfolio because the latter do not exhibit asymmetry. Second, considering the overall finding of sensitivity to oil price changes, institutional investors need to examine the sensitivity of their bond portfolios to oil return changes and to guard against excessive risk. Similarly, corporations should monitor oil price variations and hedge the volatility risk accordingly. Finally, stock investors in the U.K. and the Netherlands might benefit from monitoring the key events that may affect the oil supply and oil prices, and acting accordingly. / Economics

This thesis focuses on analysis and comparison of volatility on selected European stock markets. At first paper briefly introduces the reader to the specific features of financial econometrics and the importance of asset returns volatility analysis. Further chapters precisely cover the construction of linear and nonlinear conditional heteroscedasticity models as an appropriate tool for describing the volatility in financial data. The empirical part of the thesis analyze four stock exchange indices from various European regions and seek appropriate models to express volatility behavior in period before the financial crisis in 2008 and also during the crisis phase. Based on selected models, the paper tries to compare the volatility in both periods within the specific stock market index and moreover between different regions. The last section examines asymmetric effects in volatility of stock indices using their graphical representation.

During the year of 2007, the world has experienced historically high oil prices both in nominal and in real terms, which has reopened discussions about energy sustainability. We therefore found it interesting to research oil dependencies and elasticities for Brazil, China, Norway, South Korea, Sweden and USA; and their possible oil consumption response to a Peak Oil phenomenon. Peak Oil in this thesis, implies that oil production will reach its climax and decline thereafter. To help draw conclusions, appropriate statistical analysis on macroeconomic variables was used as well as the modified Nerlove’s partial adjustment equation to calculate price and income elasticities both in the short and long-run. Regression results have shown that short-run price elasticities were low in all countries; in addition income elasticities were also inelastic but more elastic in relation to oil price elasticities. This indicates that oil consumption is more sensitive to changes in income than to changes in oil price. It was concluded that oil dependencies among nations differ and the trend is that developing countries are increasing their oil dependency while developed countries tend to decrease their oil dependency over time. Peak Oil will lead to higher oil prices, which in the short-run will change developing countries oil consumption to a greater extent than developed countries, but in the long-run their response are more similar. It was also noticed, that when GDP decreases in net-oil-importing countries, oil consumption will decrease even further. The opposite could be true for net-oil-exporting countries like Norway and Brazil. / Under år 2007 har världen upplevt historiskt höga oljepriser, både i nominella och reala termer, vilket återigen har lyft upp energiförsörjningen på agendan. Vi fann det därför intressant att undersöka oljeberoenden i Brasilien, Kina, Norge, Sydkorea, Sverige, USA och se hur dessa länders oljekonsumption kan påverkas av Peak Oil. Peak oil betyder att oljeproduktionen når sitt maximum och minskar därefter. För att kunna dra slutsatser har lämpliga statistiska verktyg använts på olika makroekonomiska variabler och applicerat ”Nerlove’s partial adjustment model” på data har pris-och inkomstelasticiteten av olja i varje land både på kort och lång sikt kunnat utvinnas. Från regressionen har framträtt; priselasticiteten var låg på kort sikt i alla länder och detta gäller även för inkomstelasticiteten, dock var inkomstelasticiteten relativt mer elastisk i alla länder. Detta indikerar att oljekonsumtionen är mer känslig för förändringar i inkomst än för förändringar i pris. Slutsatsen från studien är att olika länder har olika nivåer av oljeberoende och att utvecklingsländer tenderar att öka sitt relativa oljeberoende över tid medan de industrialiserade länderna tenderar att minska sitt relativa oljeberoende över tid. Peak Oil leder till högre oljepriser vilket på kort sikt kommer att påverka utvecklingsländernas oljekonsumtion mer än de industrialiserade ländernas, dock minskar skillnaden på lång sikt. En observering från denna forskning är att när BNP minskar hos olje-importörerna kommer även oljekonsumtionen att minska. För oljeexportörer som Brasilien och Norge kan oljekonsumptionen öka när BNP inkomsterna ökar från Peak Oil.

<p>During the year of 2007, the world has experienced historically high oil prices both in nominal and in real terms, which has reopened discussions about energy sustainability. We therefore found it interesting to research oil dependencies and elasticities for Brazil, China, Norway, South Korea, Sweden and USA; and their possible oil consumption response to a Peak Oil phenomenon. Peak Oil in this thesis, implies that oil production will reach its climax and decline thereafter. To help draw conclusions, appropriate statistical analysis on macroeconomic variables was used as well as the modified Nerlove’s partial adjustment equation to calculate price and income elasticities both in the short and long-run. Regression results have shown that short-run price elasticities were low in all countries; in addition income elasticities were also inelastic but more elastic in relation to oil price elasticities. This indicates that oil consumption is more sensitive to changes in income than to changes in oil price. It was concluded that oil dependencies among nations differ and the trend is that developing countries are increasing their oil dependency while developed countries tend to decrease their oil dependency over time. Peak Oil will lead to higher oil prices, which in the short-run will change developing countries oil consumption to a greater extent than developed countries, but in the long-run their response are more similar. It was also noticed, that when GDP decreases in net-oil-importing countries, oil consumption will decrease even further. The opposite could be true for net-oil-exporting countries like Norway and Brazil.</p> / <p>Under år 2007 har världen upplevt historiskt höga oljepriser, både i nominella och reala termer, vilket återigen har lyft upp energiförsörjningen på agendan. Vi fann det därför intressant att undersöka oljeberoenden i Brasilien, Kina, Norge, Sydkorea, Sverige, USA och se hur dessa länders oljekonsumption kan påverkas av Peak Oil. Peak oil betyder att oljeproduktionen når sitt maximum och minskar därefter. För att kunna dra slutsatser har lämpliga statistiska verktyg använts på olika makroekonomiska variabler och applicerat ”Nerlove’s partial adjustment model” på data har pris-och inkomstelasticiteten av olja i varje land både på kort och lång sikt kunnat utvinnas. Från regressionen har framträtt; priselasticiteten var låg på kort sikt i alla länder och detta gäller även för inkomstelasticiteten, dock var inkomstelasticiteten relativt mer elastisk i alla länder. Detta indikerar att oljekonsumtionen är mer känslig för förändringar i inkomst än för förändringar i pris. Slutsatsen från studien är att olika länder har olika nivåer av oljeberoende och att utvecklingsländer tenderar att öka sitt relativa oljeberoende över tid medan de industrialiserade länderna tenderar att minska sitt relativa oljeberoende över tid. Peak Oil leder till högre oljepriser vilket på kort sikt kommer att påverka utvecklingsländernas oljekonsumtion mer än de industrialiserade ländernas, dock minskar skillnaden på lång sikt. En observering från denna forskning är att när BNP minskar hos olje-importörerna kommer även oljekonsumtionen att minska. För oljeexportörer som Brasilien och Norge kan oljekonsumptionen öka när BNP inkomsterna ökar från Peak Oil.</p>

The last ten years have been extremely challenging for both researchers in monetary economics and policymakers.The Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2009, in spite of its size and severity, was initially widely perceived in the Euro Area (EA) as an imported and transitory crisis: it was frequently predicted that the EA economy would recover once the US and the World Economy rebounded. Instead, after a brief period of recovery, the Euro Area was hit by the Sovereign Debt Crisis of 2011-12, a domestic crisis which widened the divide already existing between core and peripheral countries up to the point of threatening a break-up of the euro. Thanks to the bold monetary policy response of the ECB this fear gradually vanished, but the sudden fall in oil price and the uncertain economic outlook led to the low inflation period, particularly severe in the EA, in which inflation, both in terms of headline and core measures, is well below the ECB target of 2%. This prompted the ECB to launch its Quantitative Easing program, at the beginning of 2015, much later than what the FED implemented to offset the impact of the 2007-09 crisis.This dissertation consists of two different but interlinked parts, which contribute to the empirical literature on monetary policy, low inflation and the business cycle. The first part is composed by Chapters I and II, and it is devoted to analyse the EA economy, both before the Global Financial Crisis and during the most recent low inflation period. The second one, composed by Chapters III and IV, focuses on the US economy to evaluate the possible negative consequences of the extraordinary monetary stimulus undertaken by the FED. In particular, we study the risks for both price and financial stability of the effects of the so called lift-off, i.e. the gradual normalization of monetary stance. In the first Chapter, we provide novel evidence on the different effects of the ECB common monetary policy on euro-area core and peripheral countries even before the eruption of the crisis.We estimate a structural dynamic factor model on a large panel of Euro Area quarterly variables to take into account both the comovement and the heterogeneity in the EA business cycle, and we then simulate the model to investigate the possible existence of asymmetric effects of ECB monetary policy on member states' economies. Data stop before the eruption of the Global Financial Crisis in order to only assess conventional monetary shocks, which are identified by means of sign restrictions. Although the introduction of the euro has changed the monetary transmission mechanism in the individual countries towards a more homogeneous response, we find that differences still remain between North and South Europe in terms of prices and unemployment. These results are the consequence of country-specific structures, rather than of European Central Bank policies.In the second Chapter we use a Bayesian VAR model to analyse the transmission of global and domestic shocks in the euro area, with a particular focus on the drivers of inflation, especiallyin the recent period labeled as low inflation. We identify several shocks by means of sign restrictions, and we account for the role of ECB unconventional monetary policies by using a shadow interest rate. We document that the recent low inflation phase was not entirely attributable to falling oil prices, but also to slack in economic activity and to insufficiently expansionary monetary policy, because of the Zero Lower Bound of interest rates. Interestingly, we show that the launch of the ECB Quantitative Easing turned the monetary stance into more accommodative, preventing deflationary outcomes. In the third Chapter we provide an empirical evaluation of the existence of a "dark side" of monetary policy, i.e. the possibility that credit spreads abruptly rise following a monetary tightening, after being compressed by an extraordinary period of monetary easing. This would create a problematic trade--off for the central bank, as temporary monetary expansions might at once stimulate the economy and sow the seeds of abrupt and costly financial market corrections in the future in terms of risks for financial stability (Stein, 2014).We investigate this possibility using data for the US by exploiting non-linear methods to examine the propagation of monetary shocks through US corporate bond markets. Across different methodologies, we find that the transmission of monetary shocks is mostly symmetric. What is asymmetric is instead the impact of macroeconomic data releases: spreads respond more to bad news. Crucially, these responses anticipate economic slowdowns rather than causing them directly.However, empirical evidence points to the possibility of larger effects of expansionary monetary shocks depending on (i) the type of non-linear estimation technique (ii) the identification of the shock and (iii) the inclusion of unconventional measures in the analysis. Finally, in the fourth Chapter, we ask whether the FED has riskily delayed the exit from its large monetary easing, increasing the probability of a future inflationary burst. We do so by means of medium and larger scale Bayesian VAR, which we use for both structural analysis, i.e. the evaluation of monetary policy shocks, and forecasting, i.e. the running of counterfactuals and scenario analysis.We show that expansionary monetary policy did not trigger a large deviation of inflation from its steady state. Furthermore, the FED monetary stance is totally in line with the concurrent macroeconomic dynamics. Last, our model predicts that US core inflation will lie well below its 2% target in 2017, a finding only recently acknowledged by the FOMC projections. / Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished