Bitcoin is an unregulated digital currency originally introduced in 2008 without legal tender status. Based on a decentralized peer-to-peer network to confirm transactions and generate a limited amount of new bitcoins, it functions without the backing of a central bank or any other monitoring authority. In recent years, Bitcoin has seen increasing media coverage and trading volume, as well as major capital gains and losses in a high volatility environment. Interestingly, an analysis of Bitcoin returns shows remarkably low correlations with traditional investment assets such as other currencies, stocks, bonds or commodities such as gold or oil. In this paper, we shed light on the impact an investment in Bitcoin can have on an already well-diversified investment portfolio. Due to the non-normal nature of Bitcoin returns, we do not propose the classic mean-variance approach, but adopt a Conditional Value-at-Risk framework that does not require asset returns to be normally distributed. Our results indicate that Bitcoin should be included in optimal portfolios. Even though an investment in Bitcoin increases the CVaR of a portfolio, this additional risk is overcompensated by high returns leading to better return-risk ratios.

The crude oil, natural gas, and electricity markets are among the most widely traded and talked about commodity markets across the world. Over the past two decades each commodity has seen price volatility due to political, economic, social, and technological reasons. With that comes a significant amount of risk that both corporations and governments must account for to ensure expected cash flows and to minimize losses. This thesis analyzes the portfolio risk of the major US commodity hubs for crude oil, natural gas and electricity by applying Extreme Value Theory to historical daily price returns between 2003 and 2013. The risk measures used to analyze risk are Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall, with these estimated by fitting the Generalized Pareto Distribution to the data using the peak-over-threshold method. We consider both the univariate and bivariate cases in order to determine the effects that price shocks within and across commodities will have in a mixed portfolio. The results show that electricity is the most volatile, and therefore most risky, commodity of the three markets considered for both positive and negative returns. In addition, we find that the univariate and bivariate results are statistically indistinguishable, leading to the conclusion that for the three markets analyzed during this period, price shocks in one commodity does not directly impact the volatility of another commodity’s price. / Graduate

Satisfactory collaboration regarding children and youth in need of a comprehensive support is particularly important. Despite extensive research on collaborative work, knowledge of long term development of the collaboration process is lacking. The present thesis concerns inter-organizational collaboration within the framework of a former Swedish policy effort – focusing collaboration between schools, social services, police and the child and youth psychiatry – for the benefit of children and young people in distress or at risk. Applying a critical realist perspective, the overall aim of the thesis is to describe how former collaboration projects develop over time, and to identify significant mechanisms within this development. Through three questionnaire studies, the collaborative process development within the same collaborative settings is described (n=66) over a period of close to seven years. Estimations of 58 collaboration quality indicators within three categories *rules and regulations, *structural aspects and *shared perspectives/ consensus were collected at baseline in 2008, after one year at the final project stage in 2009, as well as five years after the project period (and the policy effort) ended, in 2014 (n=38). Two developmental trends occur: I) an overall positive trend and II) a negative trend on a comprehensive level. I) Collaboration on the target group has increased over time, are mainly incorporated into permanent organizational structures and is judged to have worked well/very well over time. II) Overall deteriorations of high estimates of the 58 quality indicators for collaborations is seen over the five year period, following the project period. However, less dramatic changes is noted on quality indicators concerning shared perspectives/consensus than on matters regarding rules and regulations and structural aspects. Five mechanisms of particular importance for the collaboration development are identified: anchoring, holistic perspectives, engagement, knowledge and clarity.

The volatility model approach to forecasting Value at Risk is complemented with modelling of Expected Shortfalls using an extreme value approach. Using three models from the GARCH family (GARCH, EGARCH and GJR-GARCH) and assuming two conditional distributions, normal Gaussian and Student t’s distribution, to make predictions of VaR, the forecasts are used as a threshold for assigning losses to the distribution tail. The Expected Shortfalls are estimated assuming that the violations of VaR follow the Generalized Pareto distribution, and the estimates are evaluated. The results indicate that the most efficient model for making predictions of VaR is the asymmetric GJR-GARCH, and that assuming the t distribution generates conservative forecasts. In conclusion there is evidence that the commodities are characterized by asymmetry and conditional normality. Since no comparison is made, the EVT approach can not be deemed to be either superior or inferior to standard approaches to Expected Shortfall modeling, although the data intensity of the method suggest that a standard approach may be preferable.

The purpose of this study was to determine if students who participated in language arts remediation which was infused with critical thinking activities and metacognition would make greater gains in skills and achievement than those students who were remediated with a regular language arts curriculum. The population for this study was a group of at risk students who were fourteen to sixteen years old and who were participants in the 1987 summer Youth Opportunities Unlimited project at the University of North Texas. Their progress was measured with California Achievement Test and Iowa Test of Basic Skills pretests and posttests. The organization of the study includes a statement of the problem, a review of the literature, the methods and procedures used to collect the data, the analysis of data, and a summary of the findings, conclusions, educational implications, and recommendations tor additional research. Data from the eight hypotheses were treated with an analysis of covariance. The analysis of data revealed the following: 1. The infusion of critical thinking activities and metacognition did not improve students' skills or achievement in the following areas: spelling, capitalization, and punctuation. 2. The infusion of critical thinking activities and metacognition did not improve students' skills in usage and expression as tested with items focusing on subject/verb agreement, verb tense, pronoun case, and pronoun degree. 3. The critical thinking activities and metacognition made a significant difference in students' achievement in language expression. The education implications are that lessons designed with mechanics objectives such as capitalization and punctuation should include independent practice. However, lessons designed with objectives focusing on usage, subject/verb agreement, double negatives, verb tense, and pronoun case and degree should include critical thinking activities and metacognition.

Individual differences in temperament can be a risk or a protective factor for a child, especially for children at-risk who possess single or multiple risk factors that may interfere with their educational success and affect their healthy development and their life-long outcomes. This research study examined the concurrent and longitudinal relationships between temperament, school adjustment, and academic achievement in children at-risk. Seventy-seven children, ages five to 11 years, were reassessed two years after an initial study. Their teachers completed the Temperament Assessment Battery for Children (TABC), the Behavior Assessment System for Children (BASC), and reported on the children's academic achievement. The results for the concurrent relationships showed significant relationships between the children's temperament and their school adjustment; negative emotionality significantly correlated with and predicted school adjustment. Children's temperament was also found to have a significant relationship with academic achievement; persistence and activity level had significant correlations with academic achievement. Persistence, however, was the only predictor of academic achievement. In contrast, the longitudinal relationship between the children's temperament and their educational outcomes in terms of both school adjustment and academic achievement showed no significance. The concurrent relationships were found to be consistent with previous research; whereas the longitudinal relationships were found to vary from previous research. Implications for practice and considerations for future research directions are discussed.

ABSTRACT A crucial issue facing our educational system is the changing family structure, particularly the increase in the number of children being raised by their grandparents. Many of these children live in a situation that places them at risk academically. Thus, it is vital that the educational system consider identifying the special needs of these children to provide supports. This study aimed to identify support services that middle school and high school grandparents perceived they needed from school systems and school personnel to ensure the educational success of their grandchildren. I developed a survey based on concerns and issues that were cited in the literature to determine grandparent's awareness of the services provided by the public schools, the extent to which their student utilized them, and other services that the grandparents themselves needed. Participants were a convenience sample of 56 mostly African American grandparents from four high schools and five middle schools in a southern urban school district who were primarily responsible for raising their grandchildren. These grandparents contacted me to participate after receiving a recruitment flier that was sent home with each student at the participating schools. Over half of the grandchildren had received a failing grade on their report card in at least one of the core subjects the previous year. About one fourth of these children also had an Individualized Education Plan (IEP). The study found statistically significant differences in the awareness of middle school and high grandparents regarding whether their grandchild utilized the academic services of tutoring, pull-out classes, and study skills classes. According to the grandparents, high school students used the services less than middle school students. In addition, of the 29 students with discipline issues, more middle school than high school grandparents indicated that their grandchild “received help for behavior problems.” Both groups of grandparents requested support groups for their grandchildren to address behavior and provide assistance with school work. Middle school grandparents also requested support groups for teasing/ bullying. Both groups of grandparents requested that a Grandparent Education Council be formed, information on community resources, and training for teachers regarding the issues of both grandparents and grandchildren.

This was a multi-faceted mixed methods study that investigated several aspects associated to class size and the perceived effects on student achievement in Title I elementary schools. The data collection in this study was conducted through two separate phases. The first qualitative phase was a case study that was comprised of teacher interviews and classroom observations. The case study took place at a Title I school in Central Virginia, chosen for its diverse representativeness of the student population. Classroom interactions were coded during five-minute segments in each full-day classroom observation, as well as field notes made for specific types of instructional methods being used within each Title I classroom: individualized instruction, small group instruction, connecting personally with students, and incorporating technology into daily instruction. While a majority of the interactions within each classroom were positive, patterns emerged within the negative interactions that occurred. Interview responses indicated that the perceived ideal class size for Title I schools is 12-18 students, as well as provided explanations behind the perceived effects of class size on student achievement. Findings from the first phase were used to create a survey that was distributed during the second qualitative phase of this study. This survey was distributed to the larger Title I teacher population within the same school district to generalize the findings from the case study. Finally, systematic student assessment data was collected to compare the perceived effects of class size to the observed effects of class size on student achievement data. Although the findings from the student achievement data were inconclusive, there were several factors associated to class size that are discussed to explain the observed effects on student achievement data in the case study Title I school.

College student engagement is an important factor that contributes to student success. This study is one of the first to explore student engagement in undergraduate social work education by examining engagement levels among at-risk social work students. In this study, two types of at-risk student groups were studied: First Generation College Students (FGCS) and transfer students. A cross sectional research design was used. Secondary analysis was performed on data gathered by the National Survey of Student Engagement (NSSE) from five accredited, Bachelor of Social Work (BSW) programs in one southeast state. A sample of 135 BSW seniors were included in this study and their levels of engagement were measured using four engagement types (peer to peer, student with faculty, student with university, and student with profession). Univariate and bivariate statistical procedures were used to examine the data and describe the sample. Hierarchical and logistic regression were used to test whether membership in an at-risk group could predict student engagement. There was a moderate to strong relationship between the four types of student engagement. Together, they indicated a good measure of BSW student engagement. FGCS had statistically significant lower levels of student engagement in three out of the four engagement types (peer to peer, student with faculty, and student with profession) than their non-FGCS counterparts. Practice implications for BSW programs to address low student engagement for FGCS through specific programming were provided. Transfer students had no statistically significant differences in any of the four types of student engagement compared to their non-transfer counterparts. Two explanations were posited for these findings; that social work programs are small in size and facilitate targeted student engagement that act as engagement “protective factors” and, by the time transfer students completed this survey they had already adopted the academic and cultural expectations requisite for success. Lastly, membership in an at-risk group, specifically FGCS, may predict lower levels of engagement in certain engagement types. The overall findings identify areas of low student engagement which afford BSW programs opportunities to create tailored programming to address it, especially among FGCS. Suggestions for future studies are also discussed.

This study employs Extreme Value Theory and several univariate methods to compare their Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall predictive performance. We conduct several out-of-sample backtesting procedures, such as uncondi- tional coverage, independence and conditional coverage tests. The dataset in- cludes five different stock markets, PX50 (Prague, Czech Republic), BIST100 (Istanbul, Turkey), ATHEX (Athens, Greece), PSI20 (Lisbon, Portugal) and IBEX35 (Madrid, Spain). These markets have different financial histories and data span over twenty years. We analyze the global financial crisis period sep- arately to inspect the performance of these methods during the high volatility period. Our results support the most common findings that Extreme Value Theory is one of the most appropriate risk measurement tools. In addition, we find that GARCH family of methods, after accounting for asymmetry and fat tail phenomena, can be equally useful and sometimes even better than Extreme Value Theory based method in terms of risk estimation. Keywords Extreme Value Theory, Value-at-Risk, Expected Shortfall, Out-of-Sample Backtesting Author's e-mail ozturkdurmus@windowslive.com Supervisor's e-mail ies.avdulaj@gmail.com