This report offers a comparative valuation of two bitumen production technologies, using real options analysis (ROA) techniques to incorporate strategic flexibility into the investment scenario. By integrating a probabilistic cost model into a real options framework, the value of an oil recovery facility is modeled to reflect the realistic alternatives available to decision-makers, where the course of the investment can be altered as new information becomes available. This approach represents a distinct advantage to traditional discounted cash flow (DCF) estimation, which is unable to capture operational adaptability, including the ability to expand, delay, or abandon a project. The analysis focuses on the energy inputs required for the recovery of heavy oil bitumen from Alberta, Canada, and examines both natural gas and nuclear steam plants as heat sources. The ACR-1000 reactor is highlighted as a substitute for conventional natural gas-fueled means of production, in light of the recent volatility of natural gas prices and the potential for emissions compliance charges. The methodology includes a levelized cost assessment per barrel of bitumen and estimation of cost ranges for each component. A mean-reversion stochastic price model was also derived for the both natural gas and oil price. By incorporating cost ranges into a ROA framework, the benefit of retaining project flexibility is included in its valuation. Formulated as a decision tree, built-in options include the initial selection to pursue nuclear or natural gas, site selection and licensing, the ability to switch heat source in the planning stage, and the final commitment to construct. Each decision is influenced by uncertainties, including the course of bitumen and natural gas price, as well as emissions policy. By structuring the investment scenario to include these options, the overall value of the project increases by over $150 million. The ability to switch technology type allows for an assessment of the viability of nuclear steam, which becomes economically favorable given high natural gas prices or high emissions taxes. Given an initial selection of natural gas SAGD, there is a 25% probability that a switch to nuclear steam will occur, as evolving financial conditions make nuclear the optimal technology. / text

The second international m-Libraries conference schedule & guidebook features the conference program; pre-conference workshops; and, local/UBC tours, events and attractions. A listing of the various conference committees and sponsors including the names of the organizing committee chair members, the graphic artist, the conference staff, and the consultant are shown on pages 27 and 28.

Attached is the list of 15 session abstracts and proposals from the second international m-Libraries Conference, held and sponsored on 23 & 24 June 2009, by the University of British Columbia in conjunction with Athabasca University, The Open University and Thompson Rivers University.

Reclaimed oil sands landscapes are perceived to be low in plant diversity compared with naturally occurring plant communities. Approximately 66 Carex species inhabit the oil sand region. This thesis is unique and represents the first large scale study of Carex establishment on reclaimed oil sands landscapes. Research compared diversity and habitat variables between natural ecosystems and reclaimed landscapes, and examined the colonization mechanism for Carex establishment on reclaimed landscapes (i.e., ingress from adjacent natural ecosystems or emergence from the soil seed bank). Low positive associations between the presence of Carex in natural and reclaimed landscapes, and the presence of species on reclaimed landscapes not accounted for in either the forest or edge plots, suggests Carex established from the soil seed bank and less so from natural ingress. Carex share the same seed dispersal mechanisms as many plants, so the implications may apply to a broader range of plant species.

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A multi-integrative approach was used to identify spatial and temporal relationships of natural and anthropogenic environmental variables affecting riverine ecosystem structure and function in the Athabasca Oil Sands Region (AOSR). A series of inter-related field studies were conducted to assess three key components of the freshwater food web (physico-chemical environment, basal productivity, benthic macroinvertebrates) utilizing an a priori environmental disturbance gradient experimental design. The gradient design was formulated to best discriminate the possible effects of natural and anthropogenic environmental variables on two river basins (Steepbank and Ells Rivers) each having different levels of oil sands (OS) land use disturbance. Findings from this study showed that natural variation explained most longitudinal and seasonal responses of physico-chemical environmental variables for both rivers, including possible mechanisms such as physical and chemical effects from the OS geological deposit and inputs from shallow groundwater upwelling. Basal productivity was likely controlled by natural variables within the Steepbank and Ells Rivers, such as potential OS deposit effects, nutrient availability and influences from turbidity and physical factors, with disturbance from OS development either negligible or not detected. Longitudinal and seasonal differences in benthic macroinvertebrate community composition were mostly related to natural variation, including possible mechanisms such as high discharge and sediment slump events on the Steepbank River, and community shifts from elevated metal concentrations from natural sources at upstream sites on the Ells River. This study demonstrated that developing baseline information on watersheds can be essential at discriminating sources of disturbance, with natural variation potentially confounding with anthropogenic factors. This study also highlights the need for further research to obtain an improved understanding of mechanistic pathways to better determine natural and anthropogenic non-point source disturbances and cumulative effects on the structure and function of tributary ecosystems in the AOSR at relevant spatial and temporal scales. / Graduate / 0329 / clsuzann@uvic.ca

This interdisciplinary project offers new insights into the reclamation history of two of the most controversial and contaminated sites in Canadian history: the Sydney tar ponds and coke ovens and the Athabasca oil sands. It argues that Canada’s natural resource-dependent economy, combined with jurisdictional uncertainty, created a hesitant, fragmentary site cleanup regime, one that left room for different ideas about landscapes to shape and even distort reclamation’s goals and processes. In the absence of substantive reclamation standards and legislation, researchers struggled to accommodate the unique challenges of the oil sands during the 1960s and 1970s. Ambitious goals for reclamation faltered, and even the most successful examples of oil sands reclamation differed significantly from the pre-extraction environment; reclamation was not restoration. Planners envisioned transforming northeastern Alberta into a managed wilderness and recreation nirvana, but few of these plans were realised. The Sydney tar ponds experience suggests that truly successful reclamation cannot exist unless past injustices are fully acknowledged, reparations made, and a more complete narrative of contamination and reclamation constructed through open deliberation. Reclamation, after all, does not repair history; nor can it erase the past. Effective oil sands reclamation, then, requires a reconsideration of the site’s past and an acknowledgement of the perpetuated vulnerabilities and injustices wrought by development and reclamation.