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Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Wisconsin--Madison, 1983. / Typescript. Vita. eContent provider-neutral record in process. Description based on print version record. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 273-279).

Bibliography : p. 333-342. / xiii, 342 p. : ill. (some col.) ; 30 cm. / Title page, contents and abstract only. The complete thesis in print form is available from the University Library. / Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Adelaide, Dept. of Physics and Mathematical Physics, 1994?

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Washington, 2000. / Vita. Includes bibliographical references (p. 130-136).

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Adelaide, Mawson Institute for Antarctic Research, 1990. / Copies of author's previously published articles inserted. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 219-226).

The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) are two key modes of variability in the tropical atmosphere. The MJO, characterized by propagating, planetary-scale signals in convection and winds, is the main source of subseasonal variability and predictability in the tropics. The QBO is a ~28-month cycle in which the tropical stratospheric zonal winds alternate between easterly and westerly regimes. Via thermal wind balance these winds induce temperature anomalies, and both wind and temperature signals reach the tropopause. Recent observational results show a remarkably strong link between the MJO and the QBO during boreal winter: the MJO is stronger and more predictable when QBO winds in the lower stratosphere are easterly than when winds are westerly. Despite its important implications for MJO theory and prediction, the physical processes driving the MJO-QBO interaction are not well-understood. In this thesis, we use a hierarchy of models – including a cloud-resolving model, a forecast model, and a global climate model – to examine whether models can reproduce the MJO-QBO link, and better understand the possible mechanisms driving the connection. Based in part on our modeling findings, we further explore observed QBO temperature signals thought to be important for the MJO-QBO link. After providing necessary background and context in the first two chapters, the third chapter looks at the MJO-QBO link in a small-domain, cloud-resolving model. The model successfully simulates convection associated with two MJO events that occurred during the DYNAMO field campaign. To examine the effect of QBO, we add various QBO temperature and wind anomalies into the model. We find that QBO temperature anomalies alone, without wind anomalies, qualitatively affect the model MJO similarly to the observed MJO-QBO connection. QBO wind anomalies have no clear effect on the modeled MJO. We note however that the MJO response is quite sensitive to the vertical structure of the QBO temperature anomalies, and for realistic temperature signals the model response is very small. In the fourth chapter, we look at the MJO-QBO link in a state-of-the-art global forecast model with a good representation of the MJO. We conduct 84 hind-cast experiments initialized on dates across winters from 1989-2017. For each of these dates, we artificially impose an easterly and a westerly QBO in the stratospheric initial conditions, and examine the resulting changes to the simulated MJO under different stratospheric states. We find that the effect of the QBO on the model MJO is of the same sign as observations, but is much smaller. A large sample size is required to capture any QBO signal, and tropospheric initial conditions seem more important than the stratosphere in determining the behavior of the simulated MJO. Despite the weak signal, we find that simulations with stronger QBO temperature anomalies have a stronger MJO response. In the fifth chapter, we conduct experiments in recent versions of a NASA general circulation model. We find that a version with a high vertical resolution generates a reasonable QBO and MJO, but has no MJO-QBO link. However, this model has weaker-than-observed QBO temperature anomalies, which may explain the lack of an MJO impact. To explore this potential bias, we impose the QBO by nudging the model stratospheric winds towards reanalysis, leading to more realistic simulation of QBO temperature anomalies. Despite this, the model still fails to show a strong MJO-QBO link across several ensemble experiments and sensitivity tests. We conclude with discussion of possible reasons why the model fails to capture the MJO-QBO connection. The sixth chapter examines QBO temperature signals in a range of observational and reanalysis datasets. In particular, we are motivated by two elements of the MJO-QBO relationship which are especially puzzling: the seasonality (i.e. that the MJO-QBO link is only significant in boreal winter) and long-term trend (i.e. that the MJO-QBO link seems to have only emerged since the 1980s). By examining QBO temperature signals around the tropopause, we highlight changes to the strength and structure of QBO temperature anomalies both in boreal winter and in recent decades. Whether these changes are linked to the MJO-QBO relationship, and what more generally might explain them, is not presently clear. Overall, we demonstrate that capturing the MJO-QBO relationship in a variety of models is a difficult task. The majority of evidence indicates that QBO-induced temperature anomalies are a plausible pathway through which the QBO might modulate the MJO, but the theoretical description of precisely how these temperature anomalies may impact convection is lacking and likely more nuanced than the literature to date suggests. Most models show only a weak modulation of the MJO associated with changes in upper-tropospheric temperatures, and even when those temperature signals are artificially enhanced, comprehensive GCMs still fail to show a significant MJO-QBO connection. Our observational study indicates that temperature anomalies associated with the QBO show striking modulations on various timescales of relevance to the MJO-QBO link, but do not conclusively demonstrate a clear connection to the MJO. This difficulty simulating a strong MJO-QBO connection suggests that models may lack a key process in driving the MJO and coupling the tropical stratosphere and troposphere. It is further possible that the observed link may be in some regards different than is currently theorized -- for example statistically not robust, due to non-stratospheric processes, or driven by some mechanism that has not been suitably explored.

<p>The Earth's middle atmosphere at about 10-100 km has shown a substantial sensitivity to human activities. First, the ozone layer has been reduced since the the early 1980s due to man-made emissions of halogenated hydrocarbons. Second, the middle atmosphere has been identified as a region showing clear evidence of climate change due to increased emissions of greenhouse gases. While increased CO₂abundances are expected to lead to a warmer climate near the Earth's surface, observations show that the middle atmosphere has been cooling by up to 2-3 degrees per decade over the past few decades. This is partly due to CO₂ increases and partly due to ozone depletion.</p><p>Predicting the future development of the middle atmosphere is problematic because of strong feedbacks between temperature and ozone. Ozone absorbs solar ultraviolet radiation and thus warms middle atmosphere, and also, ozone chemistry is temperature dependent, so that temperature changes are modulated by ozone changes.</p><p>This thesis examines the middle atmospheric response to a doubling of the atmospheric CO₂ content using a coupled chemistry-climate model. The effects can be separated in the intrinsic CO₂-induced radiative response, the radiative feedback through ozone changes and the response due to changes in the climate of the underlying atmosphere and surface. The results show, as expected, a substantial cooling throughout the middle atmosphere, mainly due to the radiative impact of the CO₂ increase. Model simulations with and without coupled chemistry show that the ozone feedback reduces the temperature response by up to 40%. Further analyses show that the ozone changes are caused primarily by the temperature dependency of the reaction O+O₂+M->O₃+M. The impact of changes in the surface climate on the middle atmosphere is generally small. In particular, no noticeable change in upward propagating planetary wave flux from the lower atmosphere is found. The temperature response in the polar regions is non-robust and thus, for the model used here, polar ozone loss does not appear to be sensitive to climate change in the lower atmosphere as has been suggested recently. The large interannual variability in the polar regions suggests that simulations longer than 30 years will be necessary for further analysis of the effects in this region.</p><p>The thesis also addresses the long-standing dilemma that models tend to underestimate the ozone concentration at altitudes 40-75 km, which has important implications for climate change studies in this region. A photochemical box model is used to examine the photochemical aspects of this problem. At 40-55 km, the model reproduces satellite observations to within 10%, thus showing a substantial reduction in the ozone deficit problem. At 60-75 km, however, the model underestimates the observations by up to 35%, suggesting a significant lack of understanding of the chemistry and radiation in this region.</p>

The Earth's middle atmosphere at about 10-100 km has shown a substantial sensitivity to human activities. First, the ozone layer has been reduced since the the early 1980s due to man-made emissions of halogenated hydrocarbons. Second, the middle atmosphere has been identified as a region showing clear evidence of climate change due to increased emissions of greenhouse gases. While increased CO2 abundances are expected to lead to a warmer climate near the Earth's surface, observations show that the middle atmosphere has been cooling by up to 2-3 degrees per decade over the past few decades. This is partly due to CO2 increases and partly due to ozone depletion. Predicting the future development of the middle atmosphere is problematic because of strong feedbacks between temperature and ozone. Ozone absorbs solar ultraviolet radiation and thus warms middle atmosphere, and also, ozone chemistry is temperature dependent, so that temperature changes are modulated by ozone changes. This thesis examines the middle atmospheric response to a doubling of the atmospheric CO2 content using a coupled chemistry-climate model. The effects can be separated in the intrinsic CO2-induced radiative response, the radiative feedback through ozone changes and the response due to changes in the climate of the underlying atmosphere and surface. The results show, as expected, a substantial cooling throughout the middle atmosphere, mainly due to the radiative impact of the CO2 increase. Model simulations with and without coupled chemistry show that the ozone feedback reduces the temperature response by up to 40%. Further analyses show that the ozone changes are caused primarily by the temperature dependency of the reaction O+O2+M-&gt;O3+M. The impact of changes in the surface climate on the middle atmosphere is generally small. In particular, no noticeable change in upward propagating planetary wave flux from the lower atmosphere is found. The temperature response in the polar regions is non-robust and thus, for the model used here, polar ozone loss does not appear to be sensitive to climate change in the lower atmosphere as has been suggested recently. The large interannual variability in the polar regions suggests that simulations longer than 30 years will be necessary for further analysis of the effects in this region. The thesis also addresses the long-standing dilemma that models tend to underestimate the ozone concentration at altitudes 40-75 km, which has important implications for climate change studies in this region. A photochemical box model is used to examine the photochemical aspects of this problem. At 40-55 km, the model reproduces satellite observations to within 10%, thus showing a substantial reduction in the ozone deficit problem. At 60-75 km, however, the model underestimates the observations by up to 35%, suggesting a significant lack of understanding of the chemistry and radiation in this region.

Copies of author's previously published articles inserted / Bibliography: leaves 219-226 / xvi, 22l leaves, [5] leaves of plates : ill. (some col.), maps ; 30 cm. / Title page, contents and abstract only. The complete thesis in print form is available from the University Library. / Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Adelaide, Mawson Institute for Antarctic Research, 1990