Climatic variation is an important driver of avian life history and population dynamics. Climate change models predict increased variability for many regions and to predict the effects on species, we need to examine how their life history characteristics influence their response to climate. I studied how environmental conditions influenced the ecology of white-tailed (Lagopus leucura) and rock ptarmigan (L. mutus) in tundra habitats of the southern Yukon Territory. Although sympatric in the study area, breeding territories were generally segregated, with white-tailed ptarmigan selecting steep, rocky slopes at higher elevations and rock ptarmigan preferring lower elevation sedge meadows. For both species, cold spring temperatures delayed the onset of breeding, resulting in smaller clutch sizes and fewer hatched young per female. However, delayed breeding led to a stronger reduction in these rates for rock ptarmigan, suggesting a lower resilience to extend reproductive effort in colder years. White-tailed ptarmigan were also more likely to re-nest following failure and had higher daily nest survival, both of which contributed to greater annual productivity compared to rock ptarmigan. Annual adult survival showed the opposite pattern to productivity as rock ptarmigan survival was 24 percent higher than white-tailed ptarmigan. This finding suggested a reproduction-survival trade-off exists for the two species, which may be driven by differing susceptibility to environmental factors in the region. Life history theory predicts that if the likelihood of future breeding opportunities is low, individuals should increase current reproductive effort, which may explain why white-tailed ptarmigan have longer breeding seasons and higher reproductive effort under unfavourable climatic conditions. Population models showed that growth rates (λ)were approximately stable for rock ptarmigan (λ=1.01), but declining for white-tailed ptarmigan (λ=0.96). Simulations showed that warmer spring temperatures over the next few decades would elevate λ by ~0.05 for both species, but the extent of increase in λ may be reduced with more variable spring conditions. Population growth will also depend on how changing winter conditions influence survival for each species. Model simulations suggest that if juvenile and adult survival are positively correlated, rock ptarmigan would be more resilient to severe years that simultaneously depress reproduction and survival.

Climatic variation is an important driver of avian life history and population dynamics. Climate change models predict increased variability for many regions and to predict the effects on species, we need to examine how their life history characteristics influence their response to climate. I studied how environmental conditions influenced the ecology of white-tailed (Lagopus leucura) and rock ptarmigan (L. mutus) in tundra habitats of the southern Yukon Territory. Although sympatric in the study area, breeding territories were generally segregated, with white-tailed ptarmigan selecting steep, rocky slopes at higher elevations and rock ptarmigan preferring lower elevation sedge meadows. For both species, cold spring temperatures delayed the onset of breeding, resulting in smaller clutch sizes and fewer hatched young per female. However, delayed breeding led to a stronger reduction in these rates for rock ptarmigan, suggesting a lower resilience to extend reproductive effort in colder years. White-tailed ptarmigan were also more likely to re-nest following failure and had higher daily nest survival, both of which contributed to greater annual productivity compared to rock ptarmigan. Annual adult survival showed the opposite pattern to productivity as rock ptarmigan survival was 24 percent higher than white-tailed ptarmigan. This finding suggested a reproduction-survival trade-off exists for the two species, which may be driven by differing susceptibility to environmental factors in the region. Life history theory predicts that if the likelihood of future breeding opportunities is low, individuals should increase current reproductive effort, which may explain why white-tailed ptarmigan have longer breeding seasons and higher reproductive effort under unfavourable climatic conditions. Population models showed that growth rates (λ)were approximately stable for rock ptarmigan (λ=1.01), but declining for white-tailed ptarmigan (λ=0.96). Simulations showed that warmer spring temperatures over the next few decades would elevate λ by ~0.05 for both species, but the extent of increase in λ may be reduced with more variable spring conditions. Population growth will also depend on how changing winter conditions influence survival for each species. Model simulations suggest that if juvenile and adult survival are positively correlated, rock ptarmigan would be more resilient to severe years that simultaneously depress reproduction and survival.

Climatic variation is an important driver of avian life history and population dynamics. Climate change models predict increased variability for many regions and to predict the effects on species, we need to examine how their life history characteristics influence their response to climate. I studied how environmental conditions influenced the ecology of white-tailed (Lagopus leucura) and rock ptarmigan (L. mutus) in tundra habitats of the southern Yukon Territory. Although sympatric in the study area, breeding territories were generally segregated, with white-tailed ptarmigan selecting steep, rocky slopes at higher elevations and rock ptarmigan preferring lower elevation sedge meadows. For both species, cold spring temperatures delayed the onset of breeding, resulting in smaller clutch sizes and fewer hatched young per female. However, delayed breeding led to a stronger reduction in these rates for rock ptarmigan, suggesting a lower resilience to extend reproductive effort in colder years. White-tailed ptarmigan were also more likely to re-nest following failure and had higher daily nest survival, both of which contributed to greater annual productivity compared to rock ptarmigan. Annual adult survival showed the opposite pattern to productivity as rock ptarmigan survival was 24 percent higher than white-tailed ptarmigan. This finding suggested a reproduction-survival trade-off exists for the two species, which may be driven by differing susceptibility to environmental factors in the region. Life history theory predicts that if the likelihood of future breeding opportunities is low, individuals should increase current reproductive effort, which may explain why white-tailed ptarmigan have longer breeding seasons and higher reproductive effort under unfavourable climatic conditions. Population models showed that growth rates (λ)were approximately stable for rock ptarmigan (λ=1.01), but declining for white-tailed ptarmigan (λ=0.96). Simulations showed that warmer spring temperatures over the next few decades would elevate λ by ~0.05 for both species, but the extent of increase in λ may be reduced with more variable spring conditions. Population growth will also depend on how changing winter conditions influence survival for each species. Model simulations suggest that if juvenile and adult survival are positively correlated, rock ptarmigan would be more resilient to severe years that simultaneously depress reproduction and survival. / Forestry, Faculty of / Graduate

New analytical and technological tools have the potential to yield unprecedented insights into the life histories of migratory species. I used Bayesian population models and Global Positioning System-acceleration tracking devices to understand the demographic mechanism and likely drivers underpinning the Greenland White-fronted Goose (Anser albifrons flavirostris) population decline. I used a 27-year capture-mark-recapture dataset from the main wintering site for these birds (Wexford, Ireland) to construct multistate models that estimated age- and sex-specific survival and movement probabilities and found no sex-bias in emigration or ‘remigration’ rates (chapter 2). These formed the foundation for an integrated population model, which included population size and productivity data to assess source-sink dynamics through estimation of age-, site-, and year-specific survival and movement probabilities, the results of which suggest that Wexford is a large sink and that a reduction in productivity (measured as recruitment rate) is the proximate demographic mechanism behind the population decline (chapter 3). Low productivity may be due to environmental conditions on breeding areas in west Greenland, whereby birds bred at youngest ages when conditions were favourable during adulthood and the breeding year (chapter 4), and possibly mediated by links with the social system, as birds remained with parents into adulthood, forfeiting immediate reproductive success, although a cost-benefit model showed the ‘leave’ strategy was marginally favoured over the ‘stay’ strategy at all ages (chapter 5). Foraging during spring does not appear to limit breeding, as breeding and non-breeding birds did not differ in their proportion of time feeding or energy expenditure (chapter 6). Two successful breeding birds were the only tagged individuals (of 15) to even attempt to nest, suggesting low breeding propensity has contributed to low productivity. Although birds wintering in Ireland migrated further to breeding areas than those wintering in Scotland, there were no differences in feeding between groups during spring migration (chapter 7). These findings suggest that Greenland White-fronted Geese are not limited until arrival on breeding areas and the increasingly poor environmental conditions there (chapter 8). More broadly, these findings demonstrate the application of novel tools to diagnose the cause of population decline.