Most theoretical and empirical literatures have investigated the credit channel of monetary transmission in a closed economy. However, when Taiwan becomes financially more internationalized, little literature can provide economic implication for the credit-channel effect of a monetary policy to the case of Taiwan. Therefore we set up a model with the credit market under an open economy to study the credit channel-effect of monetary policy with the inclusion of foreign assets and debts in the bank’s balance sheet. The main conclusion in our theoretical model is that the effect of a tight monetary policy on bank loans will be reduced in an open economy; furthermore, such effect may make bank loans increase after a contractionary monetary policy. Besides, the empirical evidence also shows that bank loans increase after a contractionary monetary policy with the data of Taiwan.

The credit channel literature has made great strides in recent years, however, much of the literature to date has focused largely on the closed economy. Even some of the literatures are in a framework of an open economy, they only concentrate on the fixed or a quasi-fixed exchange rate regime. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to complete the theoretical framework by extending the Bernanke and Blinder model to the case of an open economy under a floating exchange rate regime. We find that the exchange rates puzzle takes place in our model when the influence from credit channels is very significant. We further to compare the credit channel effects under different models. Moreover, we adopt a cointegration analysis to study the credit channel effect, and the empirical evidences show that the credit channels exist in Taiwan for the sample period during November 1991 to January 2005.

本篇論文旨在探討台灣貨幣政策的銀行借貸傳遞管道，著重在銀行行為的分析，我們為銀行在借貸管道中所扮演的行為提供了一個理論的解釋架構。實證上利用共整合與衝擊反應函數分析貨幣政策的影響，結果發現因銀行會調整資產負債的組合來抵銷貨幣政策的影響，所以銀行借貸管道在台灣並不是一個重要的貨幣政策傳遞管道。 / This paper investigates the role of the bank lending channel in the monetary policy transmission process in Taiwan. Particularly, we provide a theoretical framework to describe the effect of banks' behaviors on the bank lending channel. In the empirical study, we perform cointegrated relation and impulse response to analyze the effect of monetary policy on bank loans. We find that a bank lending channel is not a relevant transmission mechanism of monetary policy, which can be due to banks' buffer behaviors.

The aim of this paper is to investigate the procyclical behavior of banks in terms of lending and loan loss provisioning, and its dynamics with regard to the adoption of the Basel II capital regulation. Using bank-level and country-level panel data spanning from 1996 to 2013 we answer this question for the OECD and BRIC countries. We find a positive effect of bank capitalization on loans growth, which, perhaps due to the recent financial crisis, weakened after 2008. Together with evidence of income smoothing and capital management we also find strong cyclical behavior of banks in terms of loan loss provisioning. At the same time, we do not find any robust changes to this behavior after the introduction of the Basel II capital regulation. We fill a gap in the empirical literature as there has been hardly any research done on changes brought forward by the adoption of the Basel II capital regulation. The results may be therefore of interest for regulators and other professionals. Moreover, we use in our analysis data for BRIC countries, which have been often neglected.

Derivation and Estimation of a New Keynesian Phillips Curve in a Small Open Economy This paper explores how well Swedish inflation is explained by a New Keynesian Phillips Curve. As the real driving variable in the Phillips Curve, a measure of firms' real marginal cost is compared to the traditional output gap. The results show that, with real marginal cost in the Phillips Curve equation, the point estimates generally have the expected positive sign, which is less frequently the case with the output gap. However, with both real marginal cost and the output gap, it is difficult to pin down a statistically significant relationship with inflation. Firm-Level Evidence of Shifts in the Supply of Credit This paper examines empirically whether firms are subject to shifts in credit supply over the business cycle. Shifts in the supply of credit are identified by exploring how firms substitute between commitment credit -- lines of credit -- and non-commitment credit. The results show that firms on average rely more on commitment credits when monetary policy is tight and when the financial health of banks is weaker. The results are consistent with a bank lending channel of monetary policy and with shifts in the supply of credit following deteriorations in banks' balance sheets. Lines of Credit and Investment: Firm-Level Evidence of Real Effects of the Financial Crisis This paper studies how the 2008 financial crisis affected corporate investment in Sweden through its effect on credit availability. The approach is to compare investments of firms before and after the onset of the crisis as a function of their ex ante sensitivity to a credit supply shock, controlling for fundamental determinants of investments. Sensitivity to a credit supply shock is measured as credit reserves, defined as unused credit on lines of credit. The results indicate that the decline in investment following the crisis was not exacerbated by a contraction in the supply of credit.

This thesis examines three different aspects of monetary policy in a varying sample of developing countries, with some Islamic banks. The first essay estimates a variety of interest rate rules for the conduct of monetary policy for Indonesia, Israel, South Korea, Thailand and Turkey, in both high and low inflation conditions. The findings are that the reaction of monetary policy to both inflation and output gaps differs between the high and low inflation regimes and that the exchange rate channel is important only in the low inflation regime. The second essay examines the bank lending channel of monetary transmission in Malaysia, a country with a dual banking system, with both Islamic and conventional banks. The results show that Islamic credit is less responsive to interest rates shocks than is conventional credit, in both high and low growth conditions. In contrast, the relative importance of Islamic credit shocks in driving output and inflation is greater under low -inflation conditions and higher Islamic credit leads to higher growth and lower inflation in such conditions. The third essay re-examines the question of causality between credit and GDP between two sets of countries one set without Islamic banks and the other set with dual banking systems, including some Islamic banks. The results suggest long-run causality from credit growth to GDP in countries with only Islamic banks.

Does monetary policy affect the real economy? If so, what is the transmission mechanism or channel through which these effects occur? These two questions are among the most important and controversial in macroeconomics. This dissertation presents some new empirical evidence that addresses each question for the U.S. and Chinese economies. Literature on monetary transmission suggests that the monetary policy can take effect on the real economy through several ways. The most noteworthy one is credit channels, including the bank lending channel and the interest channel. First, I use a new method to test for structural breaks in the U.S. monetary policy history and present some new empirical evidence to support an operative bank lending channel in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. Results show that an operative bank lending channel existed in 1955 to 1968, and its impact on the economy has become much smaller since 1981, but it still has a significant buffering effect on output by attenuating the effect of the interest channel. Second, I adopt the recently developed time series technique to explore the puzzling negative correlation between output and stock returns in China currently, and posit that it is due to a negative link between monetary policy and stock returns when monetary policy increases output. The monetary policy has not been transmitted well in the public sector which is the principal part of Chinese stock market, and increased investment capital from monetary expansion goes to real estate sector instead of the stock market. Last, I demonstrate how monetary policy has been transmitted into the public and private sectors of China through the credit channel. The fundamental identification problem inherent in using aggregated data that leads to failure in isolating demand shock from supply shock is explicitly solved by introducing control factors. I find that the monetary policy has great impact on private sector rather than public sector through credit channel in China. These findings have important practical implications for U.S. and China’s economic development by improving the efficiency of the monetary policy because a comprehensive understanding of monetary transmission will lead to better policy design.

The purpose of this thesis is to empirically explore the characteristics of the monetary transmission mechanism, with a particular emphasis on the role of banks, in Turkey. By looking at the banking sector at the micro level and exploiting dynamic panel data modeling approaches, the heterogeneity in banks&rsquo / response in terms of their lending and risk-taking to changes in policy interest rates is analyzed. The first essay is an empirical analysis of the bank lending channel of monetary transmission. In this regard, the lending behavior of banks operating over the period 1988-2009 is examined. Given the changes in the policy stance and developments in the financial system following the 2000-01 crisis, the analysis is further conducted for the two sub-periods: 1988-2001 and 2002 2009, to examine whether there is a change in the functioning of the credit channel. Empirical evidence suggests cross sectional heterogeneity in banks&rsquo / response to monetary policy changes during 1988-2009. Regarding the results of the pre-crisis and post-crisis periods, it is found that an operative bank lending channel existed in 1988-2001, however its impact became much stronger thereafter. Furthermore, there are significant differences in the distributional effects due to bank specific characteristics in the impact of monetary policy on credit supply between the two sub-periods. The second essay investigates the existence of risk-taking channel of monetary policy by using quarterly data over the period 2002-2012. Four alternative risk measures are used in the analysis / three accounting-based risk indicators and a market-based indicator. Our findings show that low levels of interest rates have a positive impact of banks&rsquo / risk-taking behavior for all risk measures. In terms of bank specific characteristics, our results imply that large, liquid and well-capitalized banks are less prone to risk-taking.

Does monetary policy affect the real economy? If so, what is the transmission mechanism or channel through which these effects occur? These two questions are among the most important and controversial in macroeconomics. This dissertation presents some new empirical evidence that addresses each question for the U.S. and Chinese economies. Literature on monetary transmission suggests that the monetary policy can take effect on the real economy through several ways. The most noteworthy one is credit channels, including the bank lending channel and the interest channel. First, I use a new method to test for structural breaks in the U.S. monetary policy history and present some new empirical evidence to support an operative bank lending channel in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. Results show that an operative bank lending channel existed in 1955 to 1968, and its impact on the economy has become much smaller since 1981, but it still has a significant buffering effect on output by attenuating the effect of the interest channel. Second, I adopt the recently developed time series technique to explore the puzzling negative correlation between output and stock returns in China currently, and posit that it is due to a negative link between monetary policy and stock returns when monetary policy increases output. The monetary policy has not been transmitted well in the public sector which is the principal part of Chinese stock market, and increased investment capital from monetary expansion goes to real estate sector instead of the stock market. Last, I demonstrate how monetary policy has been transmitted into the public and private sectors of China through the credit channel. The fundamental identification problem inherent in using aggregated data that leads to failure in isolating demand shock from supply shock is explicitly solved by introducing control factors. I find that the monetary policy has great impact on private sector rather than public sector through credit channel in China. These findings have important practical implications for U.S. and China’s economic development by improving the efficiency of the monetary policy because a comprehensive understanding of monetary transmission will lead to better policy design.

In the thesis, we examine the bank lending channel and the effect of banking market structure on the transmission of monetary policy in Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan. We employ bank-level data for the period of 2011-2017 to detect if banks with different characteristics react differently to monetary policy shocks. Banking market structure is proxied by three measures-CR5, HHI, and Lerner Index. We estimate two types of models: dynamic (with system GMM) and static (with FE) models. We also consider the effect of dollarization on bank loan supply as well as on monetary policy. We do not find consistent evidence that banks react differently to monetary policy shocks depending on bank characteristics (size, capitalization, and liquidity). Hence the existence of the lending channel is not conclusive. Nevertheless, the results show that monetary policy is less effective in more concentrated markets. This finding is robust in all specifications with both types of models. In this sense, competition is not significant. The results also suggest that dollarization weakens the effect of domestic monetary policy. Keywords bank lending channel, CR5, HHI, Lerner Index, system GMM, dollarization Author's e-mail t.jvarize@yahoo.com Supervisor's e-mail janxmares@gmail.com