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Due to the complexity and dynamism of the global beef market, policymakers need a theoretically consistent, rigorous and quantitative analysis to validate and quantify the effects of different factors that are believed to drive beef trade. The general objective of this dissertation was to validate and quantify the factors that drive and influence international beef trade in order to facilitate and improve the decision-making behaviour of policymakers. The gravity model methodology was identified as the ideal framework to address the general objective of this dissertation, and was used as the primary tool to analyse the factors that drive and influence beef trade. The specific objectives were to gain an understanding of prominent issues that influence international beef trade, to review the gravity modelling methodology and to model the effects of various issues on the volume of beef trade based on trade data among leading importers and exporters between 1996 and 2010. A model was estimated using two separate equations, referred to as Model B1 and Model B2. For each of these equations the dependant variable varied to represent: bovine cuts boneless, fresh or chilled (HS 020130); bovine cuts boneless, frozen (HS 020230); and an aggregation of these two products designated as "Total beef". Model B1 was estimated with the full gravity model specification, including export prices. Since very few studies on commodity specific gravity models exist and have never modelled beef exports prices directly, it was decided to run an additional model, Model B2, without the export price variable. The Wald Chi-square test confirmed that the variables included in the model were significant in explaining the variation in the volume of exports. Issues that were included in the specification included beef production in a beef exporter, beef consumption in a beef importer, tariff measures applied by importing countries, income per capita of consumers in importing countries, export prices and trade bans due to animal diseases. The coefficients of individual variables estimated were found to be plausible while the signs of the coefficients indicated the expected relationships between the volume of beef trade and each of the individual issues. After comparing the two models it was found that the price variable exhibited statistically significant and plausible results, and did not affect the estimates of the other variables. A comparison with similar studies revealed that the model developed in this dissertation estimated similar results in some areas, and even more plausible results in others. When all of the statistical tests and validation criteria are taken into account, the gravity model developed in this dissertation was successful in validating and quantifying the factors that drive and influence international beef trade. / Dissertation (MCom)--University of Pretoria, 2014. / gm2014 / Agricultural Economics, Extension and Rural Development / unrestricted

In September 1993, the United States Congress formally ratified the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in conjunction with the legislatures of Canada and Mexico. NAFTA phases out tariff barriers between the United States, Canada, and Mexico over a period of several years. The primary purpose of this study is to provide an empirical tool for evaluating the effects of NAFTA on beef trade between Canada, Mexico, and the United States. Trends were identified in U.S. beef exports and imports to Canada and Mexico over a period of several years. From the data on import/export quantities and prices, relevant elasticities were estimated for the the three trading partners using a partial adjustment modeling technique. Given the elasticities, relevant statistical tests were performed to determine the significance of price and quantity changes. This was done to determine whether changes in trading practices were consistent. Finally, policy recommendations were developed based on the assessment of NAFTA on U.S. beef trade. An overall direction of trade among the three countries was determined. Policies and implications based on economic theory were developed.

O mercado da carne bovina na China sofreu grandes transformações nos últimos anos, quando o país passou a ser um dos maiores importadores mundiais, apresentando assim oportunidades para os países exportadores. A competitividade de Austrália, Brasil e Estados Unidos, os três principais players que participaram deste mercado nos últimos 20 anos, foi avaliada utilizando o índice de Vantagens Comparativas Reveladas (IVCR). Consideraram-se as importações de carne bovina in natura realizadas via China continental, via Hong Kong e no total de ambos. Os resultados mostraram que o Brasil foi o país mais competitivo ao longo da série, mas seus resultados devem-se às exportações de carne congelada realizadas via Hong Kong. A Austrália é competitiva em ambos mercados, em especial na China continental, se mostrando também o mais competitivo fornecedor de carne resfriada, enquanto que os Estados Unidos tiveram sua competitividade comprometida pela ocorrência do surto de EEB em 2003. Os resultados mostram que a ocorrência de adversidades sanitárias foi o evento mais importante da série, sendo capaz de causar alterações duradouras na competitividade de todos os players. / Beef market in China has undergone major changes in recent years as the country has become one of the largest importers in the world, thus offering opportunities for exporting countries. The competitiveness of Australia, Brazil and the United States, the three main players that participated in this market during the last 20 years, was evaluated using the Revealed Comparative Advantage Index. For this analysis were considered imports of fresh beef imported by mainland China, Hong Kong and the Total of both. The results showed that Brazil was the most competitive country during the series, but its performance is linked to exports of frozen beef made through Hong Kong. Australia is competitive in both markets, especially in mainland China, and is also the most competitive supplier of chilled beef. The United States had its competitiveness in both markets jeopardized by the occurrence of a BSE outbreak in 2003. The results show that the occurrence of sanitary adversities was the most important event of the series, being able to cause long-lasting changes in the competitiveness of all players.

O mercado da carne bovina na China sofreu grandes transformações nos últimos anos, quando o país passou a ser um dos maiores importadores mundiais, apresentando assim oportunidades para os países exportadores. A competitividade de Austrália, Brasil e Estados Unidos, os três principais players que participaram deste mercado nos últimos 20 anos, foi avaliada utilizando o índice de Vantagens Comparativas Reveladas (IVCR). Consideraram-se as importações de carne bovina in natura realizadas via China continental, via Hong Kong e no total de ambos. Os resultados mostraram que o Brasil foi o país mais competitivo ao longo da série, mas seus resultados devem-se às exportações de carne congelada realizadas via Hong Kong. A Austrália é competitiva em ambos mercados, em especial na China continental, se mostrando também o mais competitivo fornecedor de carne resfriada, enquanto que os Estados Unidos tiveram sua competitividade comprometida pela ocorrência do surto de EEB em 2003. Os resultados mostram que a ocorrência de adversidades sanitárias foi o evento mais importante da série, sendo capaz de causar alterações duradouras na competitividade de todos os players. / Beef market in China has undergone major changes in recent years as the country has become one of the largest importers in the world, thus offering opportunities for exporting countries. The competitiveness of Australia, Brazil and the United States, the three main players that participated in this market during the last 20 years, was evaluated using the Revealed Comparative Advantage Index. For this analysis were considered imports of fresh beef imported by mainland China, Hong Kong and the Total of both. The results showed that Brazil was the most competitive country during the series, but its performance is linked to exports of frozen beef made through Hong Kong. Australia is competitive in both markets, especially in mainland China, and is also the most competitive supplier of chilled beef. The United States had its competitiveness in both markets jeopardized by the occurrence of a BSE outbreak in 2003. The results show that the occurrence of sanitary adversities was the most important event of the series, being able to cause long-lasting changes in the competitiveness of all players.

Master of Agribusiness / Department of Agricultural Economics / Andrew P. Barkley / The impact of agricultural trade liberalization on welfare is a major concern to the Government of Morocco. Several agricultural sectors and sub-sectors that are suffering from severe inefficiencies have been protected by the Government mainly through prohibitive import tariffs as a mean to support the income of domestic producers. Although the rhetoric in Morocco is of trade liberalization, the farm sector, with few exceptions, has largely escaped the general tendency. The livestock sector in general and the bovine meat production in particular figure among the most protected goods in the country. Bovine meat imports are imposed a prohibitive tariff rate of 254 percent. In addition, several technical barriers to trade exist in the form of rigid sanitary regulations. It is strategically important for Morocco's trade partners and those that are planning to negotiate different forms of trade agreements to understand the economic argument behind Moroccan protectionist policy in agriculture. The bovine meat market in Morocco is of high interest to major exporters given the growing size in domestic and tourist populations, the high domestic prices, as well as the increase in consumer awareness. Given its good sanitary status, Australia is a strong candidate for negotiating an agreement that will include bovine meat within a general agricultural package. The objective of this study is to evaluate economic evidence and determine whether or not opening up trade of bovine meat will have a net positive impact on welfare. Such evidence can become a strong argument in the hands of trade negotiators for major exporting nations such as Australia. This study uses data from the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO), the Ministry of Agriculture of Morocco and Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA) to construct a partial equilibrium model for the bovine meat market. The model simulates different trade policies: closed market, free trade, quota and TRQ. Using the theory of comparative advantage and the concepts of consumer and producer surpluses, gains and losses are assessed and the net impact on welfare is evaluated. The empirical analysis suggests that total free trade in the bovine meat market results in the highest gain in social welfare when compared to protectionism (USD 246.62 million), followed by the TRQ (USD 206.11 million) and quota policy (USD 4.92 million). As hypothesized, the protectionist policy results in large losses in consumers' surplus. The results of the analysis converge with the economic theory and are compelling evidence for the benefits brought by openness in the bovine meat trade.

O mercado da carne bovina na China sofreu grandes transformações nos últimos anos, quando o país passou a ser um dos maiores importadores mundiais, apresentando assim oportunidades para os países exportadores. A competitividade de Austrália, Brasil e Estados Unidos, os três principais players que participaram deste mercado nos últimos 20 anos, foi avaliada utilizando o índice de Vantagens Comparativas Reveladas (IVCR). Consideraram-se as importações de carne bovina in natura realizadas via China continental, via Hong Kong e no total de ambos. Os resultados mostraram que o Brasil foi o país mais competitivo ao longo da série, mas seus resultados devem-se às exportações de carne congelada realizadas via Hong Kong. A Austrália é competitiva em ambos mercados, em especial na China continental, se mostrando também o mais competitivo fornecedor de carne resfriada, enquanto que os Estados Unidos tiveram sua competitividade comprometida pela ocorrência do surto de EEB em 2003. Os resultados mostram que a ocorrência de adversidades sanitárias foi o evento mais importante da série, sendo capaz de causar alterações duradouras na competitividade de todos os players. / Beef market in China has undergone major changes in recent years as the country has become one of the largest importers in the world, thus offering opportunities for exporting countries. The competitiveness of Australia, Brazil and the United States, the three main players that participated in this market during the last 20 years, was evaluated using the Revealed Comparative Advantage Index. For this analysis were considered imports of fresh beef imported by mainland China, Hong Kong and the Total of both. The results showed that Brazil was the most competitive country during the series, but its performance is linked to exports of frozen beef made through Hong Kong. Australia is competitive in both markets, especially in mainland China, and is also the most competitive supplier of chilled beef. The United States had its competitiveness in both markets jeopardized by the occurrence of a BSE outbreak in 2003. The results show that the occurrence of sanitary adversities was the most important event of the series, being able to cause long-lasting changes in the competitiveness of all players.