Participants in the NFL gambling market can largely be divided into two distinct groups: informed bettors (“Sharps”) and uninformed bettors (“Squares”). Empirical and anecdotal evidence suggest that the dynamic between Sharp and Square bettors is very similar to that between institutional and retail investors. Professionals tend to be far better informed and utilize rational betting/investing strategies while individuals exhibit biases which perpetuate irrational strategies and therefore pricing inefficiencies. This study finds that uninformed participants in financial markets and the NFL betting market do share similar biases, and that these biases can be exploited by informed participants to generate positive excess returns. The ability of Sharp bettors to generate excess returns, much like professional investors, is well covered in academic research. This study adds to the existing literature by analyzing whether “Follower” bettors can achieve statistically significant excess returns and higher than expected winning percentages by identifying reverse line movements and imitating the bets of Sharp gamblers.

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En estas páginas nos abocaremos a los múltiples y diversos ejemplos que, en los últimos más de cuarenta años, han surgido al aplicar el análisis económico en área que le eran inhóspitas, cuanto al reiterado uso de herramental conceptual proveniente de otras ciencias –sociales, naturales o exactas- aplicadas a las conductas económicas. Pero antes de emprenderlo, es necesario aclarar que, en orden a presentar un panorama tan llamativo como heterogéneo a su interior, deberemos expandir al máximo y re-significar algunos términos de los que depende todo lo que sigue: dos contenidos explícitamente y uno implícitamente en el título de este trabajo integrador final. El primero de ellos, comenzando por los explícitos, refiere a qué referimos exactamente por economía no-convencional, expresión de nuestra entera responsabilidad. La idea originaria fue señalar -de la manera más inclusiva posible-, esa expansión de la economía a materias inusitadas, y que algunos han llamado ‘economía de lo raro’ (Dubit & Levitt, 2007), ‘economía de lo insólito’ (Campanario, 2005), ‘rarología’ (Wiseman, 2008). No sólo ellos -sino muchos otros más- expresan este cruce, del que nos interesa aquí, finalmente, dónde se ubica en el espectro de las ciencias sociales a estos trabajos con insumos teóricos y metodológicos diferentes (es decir, que cada uno exalta no sólo lo que tiene de fuera de lo común, sino que también resalta lo que lo diferencia de esos otros que también van por lo mismo: en el caso del primero, ‘economía de lo raro’ remite a un enfoque de incentivos bastante convencional aplicado a problemáticas no alcanzadas por el análisis económico (sin hacer alusión, casi, a las áreas conocidas como behavioral economics o economics of happiness –términos comunes para nominar, a veces sin mucha reflexión y disquisición previa, estas nuevas áreas de interés cognoscitivo-); en el segundo, ‘economía de lo insólito’ es el término que el autor utiliza para una batería de abordajes –a veces agrupados por ciencias auxiliares, otras por lo que comprende como temas- donde no todos son incluidos en [pero sí acaecidos desde la irrupción de] la behavioral economics de Gary Becker; y el tercero, ha sido llevado al análisis económico por interesados en sus objetos de estudio (aunque fue pensado continuando con una tradición secular británica en psicología de tópicos inusuales), y la metodología es doble: los ‘rarólogos’ utilizan, o bien métodos científicos convencionales para analizar problemas no comunes, o bien métodos poco ortodoxos para temas más convencionales. No obstante todo lo anterior, repetimos: estos son sólo tres casos, de un universo donde la situación se repite. Aquí, utilizamos la nominación no-convencional, definiendo por su complemento –y así con aspiraciones a que sea inclusiva al máximo- de todos esos enfoques diferentes, pero que poseen un denominador común: análisis económico aplicado con herramientas diferentes, o, con objetos de estudio distintos a los usuales.

Moral licensing is a cognitive bias, which enables individuals to behave immorally without threatening their self-image of being a moral person. We investigate this phenomenon in a cross-cultural marketing context. More specifically, this paper addresses the questions (i) how big moral licensing effects typically are and (ii) which factors systematically influence the size of this effect. We approach these questions by conducting a meta-analysis and a meta-regression. Based on a random effects model, the point estimate for the generalized effect size Cohen's d is 0.319 (SE = 0.046; N = 106). Results of a meta-regression advance theory, by showing for the first time that both cultural background and type of comparison explain a substantial amount of the total variation of the effect size of moral licensing. Marketing practitioners wishing to capitalize on moral licensing effects should therefore consider cross-cultural difference, since marketing measures building on this effect may lead to different revenues in different countries.

Diploma thesis is focused on the irrationality of consumers, which is then tested experimentally for Czech consumers and experimental results are further compared with the results of American consumers.

Název / Title Eseje o rozhodování pod stresem / Essays on Decision Making under Stress Student PhDr. Lubomír Cingl Studijní program / Study program Ekonomické teorie Školitel / Advisor PhDr. Michal Bauer, Ph.D. Abstract This dissertation comprises three thematically connected experimental studies of human behavior under non- standard conditions: time-pressure and stress. In the Introduction section I present the argument for why it is important for economists to recognize stress research as a valid part of the research in economics and how it can contribute to the growing knowledge of human behavior in general, including several examples from the literature. The first paper presented in Chapter 2 examines the effect of time pressure on the individual propensity to herd, while the remaining two papers examine the effect of acute stress on risk-preferences and herding behavior, respectively. Herding behavior is a very important phenomenon in human decision making since social influence is very frequent in our lives and economic decisions: consider traders in financial markets, wait-and-see investors, but also purchase behavior due to fads, fashion and top-ten lists. Risk preferences are another essential factor which determines many important economic outcomes, and the assumption of their stability is a...

Le premier Chapitre utilise les acquis de la psychologie différentielle et de la psychométrie pour corréler le comportement d’évasion fiscale observé dans le laboratoire aux traits de personnalité individuels, mesuré grâce à des questionnaires psychométriques standardisés. Ces questionnaires de personnalité sont liés aux émotions morales, aux jugements moraux et à la soumission à la norme. Les résultats montrent d’abord que les questionnaires mesurant les émotions morales expliquent mieux les comportements d’évasion que les autres questionnaires. Ensuite, le pouvoir explicatif de ces traits de personnalité reste très modeste. Cette absence de relation forte met donc l’accent sur l’importance du contexte institutionnel dans lequel la soumission fiscale est mesurée. Les deuxième et troisième Chapitres tentent de mieux prendre en compte ce contexte institutionnel, en utilisant la psychologie sociale de l’engagement. Le second Chapitre montre que la modification de l’environnement du contribuable, à travers l’exposition à un serment à dire la vérité, accroît le niveau d’honnêteté des déclarations fiscales qui lui font suite. Le troisième Chapitre tente d’expliquer la cause du phénomène suivant : la démocratie directe, comme présente dans certains cantons en Suisse, serait la source d’une plus grande soumission fiscale. D’après la littérature existante, sa cause pourrait être soit une coordination sociale entre les agents, soit un effet d’engagement du vote en lui-même. Les résultats montrent que la coordination sociale entre les contribuables ne permet pas d’expliquer ce phénomène, qui reflate plutôt un effet d’engagement de la participation au processus électoral. / The first Chapter uses differential psychology and psychometrics to correlate tax evasion behaviour observed in the lab to individual personality traits, measured thanks to standardized psychometric questionnaires. These personality questionnaires are related to moral emotions, moral judgments and norm submission. The results are twofold. First, moral emotions better explain evasion behavior than any other personality questionnaire. However, secondly, the explanatory power of these personality traits remains very modest. This lack of a strong relationship suggests that individual characteristics are of little help to understand and predict tax evasion behavior. It highlights the importance of the institutional context in which compliance is elicited. The second and third Chapters try to better account for this institutional context, using the social psychology of commitment. The second Chapter shows that a modification of the taxpayer’s environment, thanks to the exposition to an oath to tell the truth, increases the level of honesty of subsequent tax reports. Building on these results, the third Chapter investigates the hypothesis that direct democracy, as present in some cantons in Switzerland, could be the source of higher tax compliance. According to the existing literature, its cause could be either social coordination between agents or a commitment effect due to the vote itself. The results show that social coordination between taxpayers does not explain this phenomenon, which rather reflects a commitment effect of participation in the electoral process.

The present study used a delay discounting procedure to characterize choice behaviors in behavioral impulsivity regarding hypothetical monetary outcomes in relation to political, religious and sexual attitudes. Participants were presented with three separate metrics to measure their political, religious and sexual attitudes and then with delay discounting choices, regarding hypothetical monetary outcomes. In the delay discounting measure, participants were presented with a hypothetical scenario, a preference for a certain monetary amount now, or $1,000 at a later specified time. The survey was administered with 26 participants; however, four of the participants’ data were removed due to errors. Results indicated there was no significant relationship between AUC values and political attitudes - r (22) = .14, r2 = .02, p > .05, p = .26. Results indicated there was no significant relationship between AUC values and religious attitudes - r (22) = .27, r2 = .07, p > .05, p = .11. A significant relationship was found between AUC and sexual attitudes - r (22) = -.39, r2 = .15, p < .05, p = .048. Furthermore, the results indicated there was a significant relationship between AUC values and the communion subscale of sexual attitudes – r (22) = -.48, r2 = .23, p < .05, p = .01. The current investigation has implications for further understanding of choice and decision-making behavior and how to predict and influence the respective choices and decisions to improve the quality of life of all individuals.

A Economia Comportamental sob a orientação da Análise do Comportamento consiste em uma área de pesquisa que aplica princípios econômicos para exame de questões comportamentais. Uma de suas concentrações temáticas está voltada ao comportamento de consumir. Nas Ciências Econômicas, uma das principais variáveis identificadas como controladoras do consumo é a renda pessoal. Uma das ferramentas econômicas usadas para descrever esta relação de controle é a Propensão Marginal a Consumir, e o presente experimento propõe um procedimento para reproduzir esta ferramenta com sujeitos não-humanos. Neste intento, oito ratos Wistar foram expostos a uma contingência na qual o número de leds acesos em um painel sinalizava o total de reforçadores disponíveis por sessão (supostamente, uma analogia a renda pessoal). O consumo foi medido pelo volume de reforços liberados em FR10 e pelo número de leds apagados por sessão, uma vez que a liberação de p reforços apagava um led do painel. Os leds do painel que eventualmente não fossem apagados em uma sessão eram preservados para sessões posteriores, permitindo o aumento da renda pessoal dos sujeitos por sessão (supostamente, uma analogia a poupança). Além do acúmulo de poupança, a renda pessoal dos sujeitos variou neste procedimento por manipulações diretas do experimentador, consistindo assim a variável independente. Foram usados dois tipos de reforços, em duas etapas experimentais diferentes: água, um reforço essencial (Etapa 1) e uma solução de 10% sacarose, um reforço supérfluo (Etapa 2). Os resultados mostraram que a variação do número de leds acesos no painel (variações da renda pessoal) produziu variações lineares no consumo, compatíveis com as previsões da Propensão Marginal a Consumir. As principais variáveis foram o nível de privação, o tipo de reforço e o número de sujeitos. Discute-se a adição de novas variáveis experimentais para aprofundar-se no exame da relação entre renda pessoal e consumo / Behavioral Economics under the behavior analysis orientation is an area of research that applies economic principles to analytical-behavioral issues. One of its main research topics are consumption behaviors. In Economics, one of the main controlling variables of consumption is personal income. One of the economic tools used to describe this controlling relation is the Marginal Propensity to Consume, and the present study proposes an experimental procedure to reproduce this tool with non-human subjects. To this purpose, eight rats were exposed to a contingency in which the number of lit LEDs in a panel signaled the total number of reinforcers available per session (supposedly an analogy to personal income). Consumption was measured by the volume of liquids released under FR10 and the number of LEDs switched off per session (since the release of \"p\" reinforcements switched one LED off in the panel). The LEDs that were still lit after the session ended were preserved for later sessions, allowing the increase of personal income per session (supposedly, an analogy to savings). Besides the accumulation of savings, personal income varied by direct manipulation, and was the independent variable of this experiment. Two types of reinforcements were used in two different experimental phases: water, an essential good (Phase 1) and a 10% sucrose solution, a superfluous good (Phase 2). The results showed that the variation in the number of LEDs lit in the panel (changes in personal income) produced linear increases in consumption, consistent with the predictions of the Marginal Propensity to Consume. The main variables were the level of deprivation, the type of reinforcement and the number of subjects of each group. New experimental variables should be added to deepen the examination of this relationship between personal income and consumption

O mundo ainda está enfrentando uma crise financeira, que começou em meados de 2007 e até o momento está longe de ser resolvida. Os mercados de ações ao redor do mundo reagiram mal e as notícias em tempo real nunca desempenharam um papel tão importante para os investidores, como visto nesta crise. Em outras palavras, o impacto dos meios de comunicação aprofundou a dinâmica de baixa dos mercados financeiros, o que é amplificada pela volatilidade intrínseca do mesmo. Assim, a Neuroeconomia veio como um novo campo de questionamentos, o qual tem a finalidade de estudar a tomada de decisão, tendo em conta o papel desempenhado pela emoção e seus aspectos fisio-patológicos. Se utiliza neste estudo uma amostra de oitenta (80) pessoas, classificados em quarenta alunos de graduação e quarenta (40) trabalhadores experientes do mercado financeiro (traders), ambos igualmente divididos em 50% do sexo masculino e 50% do sexo feminino. O escopo é de avaliar o envolvimento de uma ampla rede de circuitos neurais envolvidos na avaliação de riscos, benefícios e conflitos (esta ponderação está intimamente relacionada à serotonina em caso de riscos e benefícios no caso de dopamina) para cada grupo a fim de verificar como reagem neste ambiente. Compreender a funcionalidade de tais sistemas é de fundamental importância para a compreensão da dinâmica do mercado financeiro e de suas anomalias, ou seja, para registrar a percepção de cada indivíduo em relação ao sentimento geral do mercado, seja ele a favor ou adverso. Portanto, o principal objetivo desta tese é mapear a atividade cerebral usando uma técnica desenvolvida por Rocha (2001, 2004 e 2010), operando uma simulação de negociação da Bolsa de Valores BMF&Bovespa, a fim de compreender melhor a neurodinâmica do processo de decisão no mercado de capitais / The world is still facing a financial crisis, which started in mid 2007 and up to now is far from being solved. Stock markets around the world reacted badly and the real time news has never played such an important role to investors as seen in previous crisis. In other words, the impact of the media deepened the bear dynamics of the markets, that is, it amplified the volatility of it. Thus, Neuroeconomics comes as a new field of inquiring that has the purpose of studying decision making taking into consideration the role played by emotion and its physio-pathological aspects. Here, it is used a sample of eighty (80) volunteers, sorted out into forty undergraduate students and forty (40) experienced financial market practioneers (namely traders), both equally divided into 50% male and 50% female. The scope is to evaluate the involvement of a wide network of neural circuits involved in risk assessments, benefits and conflicts (this weighting is closely related to the serotonin neural circuits in the event of risks and benefits in the case of dopamine) so as to verify how both groups react to this environment. Understanding the functionality of such systems is of fundamental importance for understanding the dynamics of the financial market and its anomalies, ie to record the perception of each individual in relation to the general market sentiment, being it in favour or on the contrary, adverse. Therefore, the main objective of this thesis is then to map brain activity using a technique developed by Rocha et al (2001, 2004 and 2010), operating a simulation of trading within the BMF&Bovespa, in order to better understand the process of neurodynamics decision making in the capital market