This thesis is an attempt to bridge some research gaps in the area of behavioural finance and investment through adopting the three essays scheme of PhD dissertations. There is a widespread belief that the traditional finance theory failed to provide a sufficient and plausible explanation for (1) what motivates individual investors to trade, (2) the pattern of their trading and the formation of their portfolios, (3) the determinants of cross section of expected returns other than risk. Behavioural Finance, however, offers more realistic assumptions based on two building blocks; behavioural biases of irrational investors and the limits of arbitrage that prevent the arbitrageurs from correcting mispricing and pushing prices back to fundamental values. This dissertation is structured as follows: In the first essay, the disposition effect is defined as the propensity of investors to realize gains too early while being loath to realize losses. Capital gains overhang is a measure of unrealized capital gains and losses that is associated with the disposition effect and the trading activities of behaviourally biased investors. We discover that firm characteristics can play a role in explaining variations in the capital gains overhang that is consistent with the activities of behaviourally biased and disposition investors. Specifically, we find that capital gains overhang is increasing in firm attributes that attract behaviourally biased investors, namely, earnings per share, leverage, growth and size. Capital gains overhang is also declining in market liquidity, possibly because liquidity allows behaviourally biased investors to excessively trade shares and beta and corporate earnings, probably because when high risk and inefficient firms experience losses, disposition investors experience capital losses that they are reluctant to realize. In the second essay, quantile regressions are employed to analyse the relationship between the unrealized capital gains overhang and expected returns. The ability of the disposition effect to generate momentum is also considered for the extreme expected return regions (0.05th) and (0.95th) quantiles. To do so, 450,617 observations belonging to 5176 US firms are employed, covering a time span from January 1998 to June 2015. Following the methodology of Grinblatt and Han (2005), the findings show significant differences across various quantiles in terms of signs and magnitudes. These findings indicate a nonlinear relationship between capital gains overhang and expected returns since the impact of capital gains overhang as a proxy for disposition effect on expected returns vary across the expected return distribution. More precisely, the coefficients of capital gains overhang are significantly positive and decline as the expected returns quantiles increase from the lowest to the median expected return quantiles. However, they become significantly negative and rise with the increase in expected returns quantiles above median expected returns quantiles. The findings also suggest that the disposition effect is not a good noisy proxy for momentum at the lowest expected return quantile (0.05th). However, interestingly it seems to generate contrarian in returns at the highest expected returns quantile (0.95th). In the third essays, we try to discover systematic disagreements in momentum, asymmetric volatility and the idiosyncratic risk momentum return relationship between high-tech stocks and low-tech stocks. We develop several hypotheses that suggest greater momentum profits, fainter asymmetric volatility and weaker idiosyncratic risk-momentum return relation in the high-tech stocks relative to the low tech stocks. To this end, we divide 5795 stocks that are listed in the Russell 3000 index from January 1995 to December 2015 into two samples SIC code and analysed them using the Fama French with GJR-GARCH-M term. The results show that the high-tech stocks provide greater momentum profits especially for portfolios that have holding and ranking periods of less than 12 months. In most cases momentum returns in the high-tech stocks explain a symmetric response to good and bad news while the momentum returns in the low-tech stocks show an asymmetric response. Finally, the idiosyncratic risk-momentum return relation is insignificant for high-tech stocks while it is significant and negative for low-tech stocks. That is, as idiosyncratic risk increases, momentum decreases for low-tech stocks. These findings are robust to different momentum strategies and to different breakpoints.

In recent years, modern prediction models have evolved to include behavioural data such as user-generated search query data that capture market sentiment and reach beyond the grasp of established macroeconomic indicators. These applications had considerable success in predicting a wide range of economic phenomena with the assumption that internet interaction behaviour resembles probable offline behaviour. Despite the considerable success of this approach, the existing literature argues for the continuous validation of search query keywords and its probable meaning over time to avoid spurious and biased results. Although recent literature attempted to bridge the keyword validation gap, this line of research is still in its infancy. This thesis sets out to examine the validity of web search intention to serve as a “pure” demand proxy for direct real estate market prediction in the United Kingdom. More specifically, it is directed towards constructing web search indices to explore: (i) the extent to which an individual’s true real estate orientated intentions manifest themselves in their web search behaviour and (ii) the magnitude to which real-time information adds value towards the prediction of illiquid asset classes. In doing so, a conceptual framework is produced, which outlines the logic and importance associated with intention specific web search in the digital age, as well as its relation to real estate demand. The empirical findings suggest that intention specific keyword development might be of little importance for aggregate housing and office market forecasts in the United Kingdom. On the contrary, it seems that the viability of intention specific web search keyword development increases when it is directed at a specific regional market. The overall thesis narrative introduces a new way of thinking about web search in the context of economic demand and draws from a variety of principles and methodologies to establish an avenue from which future research can be conducted.

In this thesis a mathematical description and analysis of the Cumulative Prospect Theory is presented. Conditions that ensure well-posedness of the problem are provided, as well as existence results concerning optimal policies for discrete-time incomplete market models and for a family of diffusion market models. A brief outline of how this work is organised follows. In Chapter 2 important results on weak convergence and discrete time finance models are described, these facts form the main background to introduce in Chapter 3 the problem of optimal investment under the CPT theorem in a discrete time setting. We describe our model, present some assumptions and main results are derived. The second part of this work comprises the description of the martingale problem formulation of diffusion processes in Chapter 4. A key result on the limits and topological properties of the set of laws of a class of Itô processes is described in Chapter 5. Finally, we introduce a factor model that includes a class of stochastic volatility models, possibly with path-depending coefficients. Under this model, the problem of optimal investment with a behavioural investor is analysed and our main results on well-posedness and existence of optimal strategies are described under the framework of weak solutions. Further research and challenges when applying the techniques developed in this work are described.

Understanding the Equity Risk Premium (ERP) and the factors affecting it is cardinal to financial economics, particularly to equity research analysts, domestic and international institutional investors and financial economist. Since the seminal work of Mehra and Prescott (1985) there has been an exponential rise in the research explaining the reasons for ERP puzzle. This review, systematically, investigates the literature related to ERP in four key dimensions. The first dimension is regarding the issues related to different techniques of estimating the ERP. The second dimension is regarding the studies that explain the reasons of existence of the ERP puzzle by making modifications to the preference structures. The third is regarding the macroeconomic variables that help in predicting ERP and the fourth deals with studies that are conducted in the international context. In addition to this, this review meticulously captures some important limitations of the existing literature regarding the estimation of ERP and identifies the domestic and international determinants of ERP, in particular the UK ERP and proposes novel future directions of research. These future research directions have two important implications for my PhD. The first is the academic contribution that predominantly comes from methodological contribution of estimating the ERP. The second is the practical contribution that comes mainly from identifying the unique set of variables (UK domestic and international), which are of prime importance to the domestic and foreign institutional investors because of the financial crisis of 2008-2009 and which should affect the UK ERP.

Questa tesi si propone di analizzare il tema dell’alfabetizzazione finanziaria secondo tre differenti prospettive servendosi di dati raccolti da un’indagine appositamente creata e somministrata in Italia tra Settembre 2014 e Febbraio 2015. Il primo capitolo guarda alle determinanti dell’alfabetizzazione finanziaria, concentrandosi sul ruolo dei consulenti finanziari, il secondo assume una prospettiva più psicologica sul tema e il terzo guarda alla mancanza di alfabetizzazione finanziaria quale possibile causa di distorsioni comportamentali finanziarie. Gli interventi tradizionalmente volti al miglioramento della consapevolezza finanziaria sono risultati estremamente costosi e con periodi di decadimento particolarmente brevi in tutto il mondo; l’evidenza empirica presentata in questa tesi suggerisce che una forma di educazione finanziaria più graduale e costante, come quella esercitata dai consulenti finanziari indipendenti, sarebbe più efficace. La conoscenza dei canali relazionali che potenziano il ruolo educativo dei consulenti finanziari, potrebbe aiutare a orientare e meglio calibrare futuri interventi educativi, tenendo a mente, tuttavia, che la competenza teorica non garantisce necessariamente comportamenti finanziariamente corretti. In accordo ai risultati ottenuti, infatti, l’alfabetizzazione finanziaria diminuisce la presenza di distorsioni finanziarie cognitive, ma non ha un effetto significativo sulle quelle emozionali. / This thesis aims at investigating the financial literacy through three different perspectives by analysing the data gathered from an ad-hoc survey carried out in Italy between September 2014 and February 2015. The first chapter looks at the determinants of financial literacy, focusing on the role of financial advisors, the second one takes a psychological perspective on the issue and the last chapter looks at poor financial literacy as a possible antecedent for financial behavioural biases. Traditional educational interventions aimed at improving financial awareness proved to be extremely costly and to have a worryingly short decay period worldwide; the empirical findings presented in this thesis suggest that a more gradual and constant form of financial education, such as the one exerted by independent financial advisors, would be more effective. Being aware of the relational channels that enhance the independent financial advisors’ educational role, may help to orient and better target future educational treatments, bearing in mind, though, that the theoretical financial proficiency does not ensure unbiased downstream behaviours. As a matter of fact, according to the results, financial literacy decreases the presence of cognitive biases, but does not have a significant effect on emotional biases.

Sammanfattning Beteendeekonomi var fram till år 1979 ett forskningsämne som saknade större motsättningar. Sedan 1700-talet var den allmänna uppfattningen att de beslut som individer fattade under risk var baserade på ett rationellt beteende. Daniel Kahneman och Amos Tverskys åsikt var polär mot den tidigare forskningen och baserat på deras kritik mot föregående studier inom beteendeekonomi presenterade de år 1979 prospektteorin, en teori som senare renderade i nobelpriset. Därefter har teorin utvecklats och år 1992 publicerade Tversky och Kahneman den kumulativa prospektteorin. Den kumulativa prospektteorin (1992) baseras på att individer frångår objektiva sannolikheter och istället utgår beslut från subjektiva preferenser och därav ett irrationellt beteende. Kahneman och Tversky ansåg att rationella individer inte alltid fattar beslut baserat på vilket alternativ som genererar den högsta nyttan utan tidigare erfarenheter och upplevelser resulterar i att individer agerar annorlunda. Ett flertal studier har funnit empiriskt bevis för att den kumulativa prospektteorin är applicerbar på investerare, däribland på förvaltare inom fonder samt inom private banking. Denna studies syfte är att med hjälp av tolv kvalitativa intervjuer erhålla en djupare förståelse huruvida den kumulativa prospektteorin är applicerbar på svenska fondförvaltare med inriktning på företagsobligationer. Samtidigt som allmänheten enligt de intervjuade förvaltarna tenderar att ha bristfälliga kunskaper gällande risker associerade till företagsobligationer anser många journalister, bland annat på grund av de förväntade räntehöjningarna, att obligationsmarknaden befinner sig i en bubbla. Detta gör företagsobligationsmarknaden intressant att undersöka. Studiens slutsats är att förvaltarna, i likhet med den kumulativa prospektteorin, agerar irrationellt vid investeringsbeslut. Detta på grund av att förvaltarna ger indikationer på att de inte enbart investerar i de företagsobligationer som genererar den högsta nyttan, det vill säga avkastning, utan tar stor hänsyn till risker kopplade till företagsobligationer. I likhet med teorin tenderar förvaltarna att hantera likviditetsproblematiken och kreditrisken i enlighet med den kumulativa prospektteorin. Vidare är studiens slutsats att förvaltarna, i kontrast till den kumulativa prospektteorin, övervärderar en redan hög sannolikhet för att ränte- och inflationsrisken ska påverka fonderna negativt. Dessutom ges indikationer att förvaltarna, i likhet med teorin, agerar riskavert mot vinster, men i kontrast till teorin, agerar de också riskavert mot förluster. Detta stöds bland annat genom att majoriteten av förvaltarna agerar med en hög grad av försiktighet samt deras bemötande av kreditrisk.

This thesis addresses the mechanics of executive remuneration from an unorthodox perspective; the view presented through the lens of imperfect market pricing. Whilst many of the criticisms of existing compensation arrangements are merited, they ignore the integrity of a crucial aspect of the way remuneration awards are calculated; the market pricing mechanism. The original contribution of knowledge of this thesis is to explain how imperfect market pricing undermines the utility of stock-based compensation awards, especially in light of the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-11 (‘GFC’).The existing position with regard to Anglo-American corporate governance emphasises the role of the market in determining optimal governance solutions. However, the market cannot regulate all conflicts. For example, the separation of ownership and control in modern corporations creates an agency problem whereby managerial and shareholder interests may diverge. Public companies therefore use performance-related pay to align the interests of management with those of firm owners. This performance-related pay often includes an element with a specific link to the price of company stock. A by-product of these arrangements is that incentives are created for executives to inflate the value of their companies in order to benefit from short-run price appreciation. This reduces the utility of stock-based pay and encourages market short-termism. There is however, a further fundamental flaw in the use of stock-based pay; it places complete faith in modern finance theory; a theory which asserts that market pricing is flawless (the so-called Efficient Capital Markets Hypothesis). However, financial and asset markets are susceptible to forces which drive prices away from intrinsic value for protracted periods and contribute to serious price distortion. Behavioural finance explains how these distortions occur and provides a more appropriate paradigm for securities market operation. The Financial Instability Hypothesis (‘FIH’) also explains how endogenous instability, emanating from the banking sector, arises as an inevitable consequence of the functioning of the capitalist economy. It further demonstrates how markets may be driven away from fundamental value, how asset bubbles occur, and how the market pricing mechanism is seriously distorted. The most serious recent crisis, the GFC, exhibited the FIH taxonomy. It exposed serious flaws in modern finance theory and revealed the dangers of flawed incentive systems in generating asset bubbles. Executives at financial institutions stand accused of short-termism, over-leveraging and poor risk management. Monitoring of management was impossible to perform effectively due to various behavioural and structural obstacles arising from the size and complexity of the institutions concerned. Moreover, a system of perverse incentives led to the failure of effective regulation of executive compensation.Reform is therefore required. The thesis will conclude with a critical analysis of recent amendments to the regulation of compensation systems at financial institutions. Based on this examination, the thesis will make some proposals for future remuneration packages in the wider economy. These proposals are designed to reduce the potential for financial instability through removing incentives for firm executives to concentrate on short-term results, and emphasize the role of qualitative indices of performance.

Thesis addresses the topic of behavioral finance. The aim of the paper is to identify most common investors's mistakes and examine the impact, the psychological and sociological factors have on their behavior when trading equities. The first part of thesis deals with the definition of classical theoretical concepts. The second part is devoted to the description of behavioral deviations. The final section consists of a questionnaire survey which aims to establish whether the behavior of participants is biased with behavioral deviations or is in accordance with the theory of efficient markets.

Much has been written, by academics, about the impact sponsorship announcements have on the share price performance of sponsoring firms. The objective of this study was to investigate if this phenomenon was true for JSE listed companies with particular focus on three announcement categories i.e. (i) new, (ii) renew and (iii) termination. The Efficient Market Hypothesis as an aspect of Investment Finance behaviour was explored to understand why sponsorship announcements would or would not have an impact on the share price performance. For this study, descriptive research was done with a causal design as the study tested the relationship between two or more variables. The study analysed 118 sponsorship announcements made by 19 JSE listed companies over a period of eleven years and five months. The study then assessed the share price performance for the period 120 days prior to and 120 days after the announcement date. The share price holding periods were adjusted for that of the average Financial Services (J212) Index, the Industrial (J212) Index and the Resources (J258) Index respectively to ascertain whether the returns were abnormal or not. The results have shown that there were no evidence that the announcement of a (i) new, (ii) renewed or (iii) terminated sponsorship do have a significant impact on the performance of share prices for JSE listed companies. / Dissertation (MBA)--University of Pretoria, 2012. / Gordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS) / unrestricted

This study examined the impact of open-market stock repurchases by Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) on the share price of the featured company. Two aspects of investment finance are rational behaviour and efficient markets. Both of these concepts were explored to understand why a share repurchase would have an impact on a company share price.Causal research was conducted to analyse the correlation between a share repurchase event and the share price of the featured company. The share buyback announcements were collected from the Bloomberg database. The holding period returns were calculated and compared to zero to analyse whether there was any momentum or contrarian signals. The holding period returns were also adjusted for the average of the all REIT index to ascertain whether the returns were abnormal or not.The results have shown share repurchase transactions to be contrarian indicators of share price performance. Even when the results were adjusted for the REIT index, the negative returns continued. / Dissertation (MBA)--University of Pretoria, 2012. / Gordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS) / unrestricted