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This study contributes to the debate on active and passive portfolio management by providing an alternate means of constructing an active portfolio. This “fusion strategy” has underpinnings in the realm of behavioural finance, namely the value-growth phenomenon and the momentum effect. The fusion strategy developed in this study was compared against two passive benchmarks and four active benchmarks. All returns are calculated net of transaction costs, initially set to 1% per month per share. Statistical testing, done via stochastic dominance, yielded inconclusive results in the majority of cases. The exception however, was that Fund B stochastically dominated the fusion strategy at second order. This implies that a risk-averse investor would prefer to invest in Fund B. By the use of Sharpe and Treynor ratios, the results were also inconclusive. However, the Sortino ratio shows that the fusion strategy outperforms all benchmarks chosen, except Fund A. The performance of the fusion strategy was also not induced by either a sector rotation strategy, the existence of the January effect or by the level of transaction costs.

A key question in behavioural finance is why prices in financial markets change. The field of behavioural finance evolved in an attempt to understand better and explain how cognitive errors and emotions influence investors' decision-making processes. Behavioural finance is the study of the psychological effects of market events on investors that affect finance decisions. It is not a new field of study, but more emphasis has been placed on this field of finance in the past two decades. Behavioural finance explores the irrational nature of investors' decisions. The primary objective of the research was to provide an understanding of the psychological impact of people on prices in financial markets. The secondary objectives are <ul> <li> to provide a brief history of behavioural finance;</li> <li> to show that there are alternatives to the efficient markets theory; and</li> <li> to demonstrate the impact of popular models on prices.</li></ul> The report was compiled based on a literature study on the topic of behavioural finance. The purpose of the literature study was to provide sufficient information to meet the objectives of the study as set out above. The following sources were used: <ul> <li> published articles;</li> <li> textbooks; and</li> <li> the Internet.</li> </ul> The efficient market hypothesis and the CAPM are challenged by behavioural finance. Prices of speculative assets do not always reflect fundamental values. The perceptions of investors play an important role in the determination of prices. Hence, when there are market crashes on the equities markets, the contagion effect amongst investors should not be underestimated. It is shown in this report that portfolio insurance is an important contributing factor to the magnitude of any crash on equities markets. Dividends are an important determinant for the fundamental value of shares. This contrasts with the revenue model that is used to value new economy shares, such as Internet companies. It is also clear that investors expect to receive a dividend. In this report, various theories strongly suggest investors' preference for dividends. These include the self-control and prospect theories, regret-aversion and the clientele effect. Changes in dividends affect share prices. A decrease in the dividend of a company is a clear signal to investors that the share price is overvalued. Movements in share prices are therefore at least partially the result of changes in dividends. Investment strategies that can be followed by investors include the following: <ul> <li> It may help to acquire closed-end fund shares at the listing of a new fund. The research shows that initially closed-end funds trade at a premium of up to ten per cent, but within 180 days, the premium evaporates and the fund starts to trade at a discount.</li> <li> The optimal strategy for sophisticated investors is a strategy that involves market timing with increased exposures to shares that have fallen, and decreased exposure to shares after they have risen in price.</li> <li> Individual investors should follow a buy-and-hold strategy, as opposed to a trading strategy, as the cost of trading is excessive.</li> <li> Arbitrageurs (professional investors) can earn higher than normal returns on markets that are excessively volatile. However, they need to be cautious, as they can also lose significant amounts of money when markets are volatile.</li> </ul> Careful consideration should be given to what shares to trade, as the cost of trading is expensive, as much as six per cent. Furthermore, it is important to have stop-loss limits in place and to sell shares once they breach the lower limit that has been set. The notion that losing shares in a portfolio will somehow turn into winning shares is, in most cases, incorrect. Copyright 2003, University of Pretoria. All rights reserved. The copyright in this work vests in the University of Pretoria. No part of this work may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, without the prior written permission of the University of Pretoria. Please cite as follows: Du Plessis, JJ 2003, Advances in behavioural finance, MBA dissertation, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, viewed yymmdd < http://upetd.up.ac.za/thesis/available/etd-04202012-125738 / > F12/4/321/gm / Dissertation (MBA)--University of Pretoria, 2012. / Graduate School of Management / unrestricted

Denna uppsats har skrivits i syfte att undersöka om finansiella aktörers information angående risk i fondsparande är förenlig med investerares riskuppfattning. Idag följer finansiella institutioner EU-direktiv och svensk lagstiftning när de riskklassificerar sina fonder. Konkret används 5-årig historisk volatilitet mätt med standardavvikelse. Vi har därför ämnat undersöka om det riskmått och teorierna som ligger till grund för det är tillfredställande i sin nuvarande form. Vi har undersökt detta med hjälp av så väl traditionell som behovsfokuserad finansieringsteori. Genomförandet har gjorts med hjälp av en enkätundersökning som skickats ut till ett urval av medlemmar i Sveriges Aktiesparares riksförbund. Vi har i och med detta urval undersökt en investerare som är något mer kunnig än en småsparare. Resultaten av undersökningen visar på att det finns en brist i kommunikationen mellan finansiella institut och investerare. Likheten mellan de begrepp som idag används och de som reflekterar investeras riskuppfattning är visserligen inte helt olika. Dock visar undersökningen på att det trots detta finns ett antal problem. För det första finns svagheter i förståelse för de akademiska begrepp som förklarar de definitioner som används hos de finansiella instituten. För det andra har investerare en mycket bredare riskdefinition än vad som förmedlas genom nuvarande praxis. Resultaten visar också på problematiken med de psykologiska aspekter som påverkar mänskligt beteende. I fondinformationens nuvarande form tas detta inte i beaktning vilket leder till en asymmetri mellan teori och verklighet. Undersökningen pekar därför på att de riskmått och teorier som ligger till grund för information om risk i fondsparande idag ej är tillräcklig. Slutsatsen är därför att det behövs förbättring från den finansiella sfären för att uppnå bättre kundkommunikation, kundskydd och konkurrenskraft.

Finance taught in schools generally starts with the efficient market hypothesis, which holds the assumptions of rational investors and markets where all information available is reflected. In recent years however, a lot of critique has been given to efficient markets and its assumptions of rationality. The greatest reason to this is because of crashes and irregularities in the market. The field of behavioural finance has been in existence for many years but is not as established as the efficient market hypothesis. It says that investors may act irrational and are mostly trying to explain the reasons why. People’s behaviour is being closely studied in order to see patterns of behaviour and this has resulted in different heuristics and biases. Heuristics are instances that come to mind when making a decision and differ a lot depending on what kind of decision you are making. Since there are many different heuristics, this thesis only focused on one: the affect heuristic. The method was constructed in a specific way in order to show if the students showed affect in their answers. Also, a check for home bias was made. This thesis presents the behaviour of two different groups of students, finance students from Sweden and MBE-students from Germany. It was proved that both of the groups were acting irrational in their investment decisions. The reason to their irrationality is both because the method was constructed in a way to strategically mislead them but also because of the data collection. There were also some differences noticed depending on age groups, former studies in finance and work experience in finance. The affect heuristic was clearly shown in the answers by both groups of students. A home bias was also noticed in the answers. It was proven that 10,3 percent of the Swedish students invested in Swedish companies in both their first and second choice, even though the three best companies were German. None of the German Students decided to invest in a Swedish company in both the first and second choice.

Diss. (sammanfattning)--Göteborg : Göteborgs universitet, 2006. / Härtill 4 uppsatser.

The objective of this study was to analyse the impact of business magazine cover stories, albeit positive, neutral or negative, on the share price of the featured company. Two of the aspects of investment finance are rational behaviour and efficient markets. Both of these concepts were explored to understand why a cover story would have an impact on a company share price. Causal research was conducted to analyse the correlation between a magazine cover story and the featured company’s share price. The cover stories were collected form the Financial Mail and Finance Week archives. The holding period returns were calculated and compared to zero to analyse whether there was any momentum or contrarian signals. The holding period returns were also adjusted for that of the average of the resources index (J258) to ascertain whether the returns were abnormal or not. The results have shown that in some instances, such as with neutral cover stories, the markets show strong signs of efficiency. The results of positive cover stories showed these to be momentum indicators, however when the results were adjusted for the resource index, many the positive returns dissipated. Negative cover stories had the strongest results, where after the cover story there were clear contrarian signals. Most of the companies stopped showing negative returns. Copyright / Dissertation (MBA)--University of Pretoria, 2010. / Gordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS) / unrestricted

Bakgrund: Tidigare forskning har visat att insynspersoner tenderar att överavkasta på investeringar i eget bolag. Det råder dock delade meningar kring varför insynspersoner tenderar att överavkasta. Vid genomgång av tidigare studier påträffades ingen kvalitativ studie, varav vi ansåg det vara av intresse att studera fenomenet genom intervjuer med insynspersoner. Syfte: Uppsatsen syftar till att studera och kartlägga motiven bakom insynspersoners köp- och säljtransaktioner i eget bolag. Med hjälp av tidigare forskning samt en ny infallsvinkel i form av teorier inom behavioural finance analyseras varför insynspersoner tenderar att uppnå överavkastning på investeringar i eget bolag. Genomförande: Studien har genomförts med utgångspunkt i åtta intervjuer med insynspersoner. Resultat från tidigare studier på området låg till grund för vilken information vi med intervjuerna ville uppnå djupare förståelse kring. Den insamlade empirin har analyserats utifrån empirisk forskning och teorier inom behavioural finance. Slutsats: I studien presenteras en ny hypotes vilken förklarar insynspersoners överavkastning som en följd av befintlig lagstiftning. Vi menar att lagstiftningen förhindrar ofördelaktiga handlingar, vilket i sin tur leder till att insynspersoner i större utsträckning än övriga investerare tenderar att undvika psykologiska fallgropar. / Background: Previous researches have shown that insiders tend to achieve excess returns on investments in own companies. However there are still disagreements regarding possible explanations for this phenomenon. In our review of previous research we did not discover any qualitative studies in the area and therefore we found it interesting to study the phenomenon by interviews with insiders. Aim: The purpose of this paper is to study and identify the motives behind insider buy and sell transactions in own companies. By using previous research and also create a new approach through apply theories within behavioural finance we aim to analyze why insiders tend to achieve excess returns on investments in own companies. Completion: This study was conducted based on eight interviews with insiders. Results from previous research formed the basis of what information we wanted to achieve a deeper understanding of through our interviews. The empirical data has been analyzed based on empirical research in the area and theories within behavioural finance. Conclusion: In this paper a new hypothesis is formed which try to explain insiders excess return as an indirect result from the regulations of insider transactions. Thanks to the regulations, impulsive actions are prevented and insiders thereby tend to avoid psychological pitfalls to a greater extent than other investors.

Bakgrund: Affärspressen publicerar dagligen rekommendationer och riktkurser från aktieanalytiker och dess analyser kan anses ligga till grund för investeringsbeslut hos såväl privata som institutionella investerare. Aktieanalytikers förmåga att prognostisera aktiekurser är ett outforskat område med endast ett fåtal publicerade studier på variabeln riktkurs. Tidigare studier fokuserar på att utvärdera träffsäkerheten i prognoserna men få av dessa bidrar till förståelse kring vad som påverkar prognosfelens storlek. Syfte: Syftet med studien är att analysera aktieanalytikers förmåga att prognostisera framtida aktiekurser. Genomförande: Studiens deduktiva ansats gör att resultat från tidigare studier ligger till grund för formulering av forskningsfrågor och utformning av tänkbara påverkansfaktorer för träffsäkerhet. Träffsäkerheten i riktkurserna analyseras via regressionsanalys där det absoluta prognosfelet är beroende variabel medan de formulerade påverkansfaktorerna är förklarande variabler. Vidare studeras en eventuell närvaro av överoptimism i prognoserna genom att undersöka fördelningen av det relativa prognosfelet via T-test. Resultat: Aktieanalytikers riktkurser påverkas av flertalet faktorer, där ett bolags storlek och beta uppvisar tydligast samband med träffsäkerheten. Variablerna uppvisar ett positivt samband med träffsäkerheten i prognoserna. Indikationer återfinns på att aktieanalytiker inte agerar fullständigt rationellt och att psykologiska påverkansfaktorer kan förekomma. Köprekommendationer influeras av en överoptimism medan säljrekommendationer uppvisar en överdriven pessimism. / Background: On a daily basis, the business press publishes stock recommendations and earnings estimates that stock analysts’ produce. These recommendations can be viewed as an integral part of both private and institutional investors’ investment decisions. Stock analysts’ ability to predict stock prices is an unexplored area with only a few studies on the variable target price. Previous studies focus on evaluating the accuracy of the forecasts but few of them contribute to the understanding of which factors influence the size of the forecast errors. Aim: The aim of the thesis is to analyze stock analysts’ ability to predict future stock prices. Completion: A deductive approach is used which allows the formulation of research questions and the identification of possible influencing factors on accuracy to be derived from previous studies. The accuracy is analyzed using regression analysis, where the absolute forecast error is the dependent variable while the formulated influencing factors are used as explanatory variables. Furthermore an analysis of the relative forecast errors is conducted to examine whether overoptimism influences the forecasts. This is carried out by examining the distribution of the relative forecast errors using T-tests. Results: Stock analysts’ price targets are influenced by several of the examined factors. A company’s size and its beta value exhibit the strongest influence on target price accuracy. The variables display a positive relationship with the accuracy of the forecasts. The results indicate that stock analysts’ do not act completely rational and that psychological biases may affect the target prices. Buy recommendations are influenced by an overoptimism whereas sell recommendations show an exaggerated pessimism.

We report our investigation of how news stories influence the behaviour of tradable financial assets, in particular, equities. We consider the established methods of turning news events into a quantifiable measure and explore the models which connect these measures to financial decision making and risk control. The study of our thesis is built around two practical, as well as, research problems which are determining trading strategies and quantifying trading risk. We have constructed a new measure which takes into consideration (i) the volume of news and (ii) the decaying effect of news sentiment. In this way we derive the impact of aggregated news events for a given asset; we have defined this as the impact score. We also characterise the behaviour of assets using three parameters, which are return, volatility and liquidity, and construct predictive models which incorporate impact scores. The derivation of the impact measure and the characterisation of asset behaviour by introducing liquidity are two innovations reported in this thesis and are claimed to be contributions to knowledge. The impact of news on asset behaviour is explored using two sets of predictive models: the univariate models and the multivariate models. In our univariate predictive models, a universe of 53 assets were considered in order to justify the relationship of news and assets across 9 different sectors. For the multivariate case, we have selected 5 stocks from the financial sector only as this is relevant for the purpose of constructing trading strategies. We have analysed the celebrated Black-Litterman model (1991) and constructed our Bayesian multivariate predictive models such that we can incorporate domain expertise to improve the predictions. Not only does this suggest one of the best ways to choose priors in Bayesian inference for financial models using news sentiment, but it also allows the use of current and synchronised data with market information. This is also a novel aspect of our work and a further contribution to knowledge.