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An Empirical Study on the Impacts of the Unlocking of the Stocks Issued Through Private Placements Based on the Statistical Analysis of Excess Returns and Announcement EffectsLiu, Wei January 2021 (has links)
Since 2000, the Chinese securities market has introduced private placement refinancing programs from foreign markets. Private placement has gradually emerged as an important refinancing method for domestic listed companies in China. However, any emerging financing means has some drawbacks. In the case of the newly introduced private placements, its manifestation in the Chinese market is the significant fluctuations of stock prices before and after the expiration dates of the lockup periods for stocks issued through private placement and announcements of private placement plans (disclosure plans, receiving approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission, etc.) and even significant declines, resulting in most investors suffering unexpected losses. Scholars abroad have conducted several systematic and extensive studies on private placement. However, owing to the short history of private placement practice in China and its unique features, research on this subject is limited. With its gradual maturity, the private placement practice has gradually emerged as important means of financing consideration for listed companies in China. Therefore, in-depth research on the effects of private placements becomes essential.From 2013 to 2016, the domestic private placement market was wisely popular. By the end of 2016, the number of private placement projects, the amount of investment, and number of unlocked stocks had reached the peak. The release of large amounts of money significantly impacted the market. Investors observed the impact of the unlocked stocks on excess returns. Moreover, the company’s announcement before and after the lock-in period expiration has a psychological effect on investors, thus affecting their investment behaviors. Therefore, this empirical study focuses on the two types of impacts: excess returns and announcement effects.
This study selected the data of unlocking through private placement of A shares in 2013–2016 as the sample and adopted statistical methods to analyze changes in excess return over the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index of 10 days before and after the lock-in period expiration date of private placements. It is found that the negative impact of unlocking on the stock price is mainly reflected before unlocking, especially in the 5 trading days before unlocking. The negative impact is not significant after unlocking. Then, by grouping comparison, it is shown that for stocks with different market capitalizations, company ownership structures, and percentages of unlocked stocks over total shares outstanding, there are significant differences in the cumulative excess returns before and after the lock-in period expiration dates. For further verification, this study applies multiple regressions on the influencing factors of the cumulative excess return of stocks before, during, and after unlocking, indicating that the level of market capitalization of the stock, company ownership structure, and the percentage of unlocked stock indeed exert a negative impact. Therefore, it is confirmed that investors can formulate the best trading strategy before and after unlocking, based on factors such as market capitalization, company ownership structure, and percentages of unlocked stock. Finally, a case study of Huangshan Tourism is carried out to further support the conclusion of the empirical analysis. / Business Administration/Finance
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Do Market Anomalies Add Up?Steinfeldt, Larissa C 01 May 2014 (has links)
This is a study about abnormal characteristics in the stock market and how to successfully use them in personal portfolios. Market anomalies are unexpected excess returns that occur in relation to certain variables. Five commonly known market anomalies (market cap, price-earnings ratio, price-book value, momentum, volatility) are tested to give evidence for their presence. Existing variables are then combined in different portfolios in order to observe whether they generate greater excess returns combined rather than individually. This study will also reveal whether long-term holding is possible and how the anomalies react in bullish and bearish markets.
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Teknisk analys : Är det lönsamt att vara trendig? / Technical analysis : Is the trend your friend?Rolander, Erik, Bagge, David January 2010 (has links)
<p><strong><p>Trading based on technical analysis has its roots in the U.S. financial industry where it has long been common practice, in Sweden however the trading style has not had the same impact. Based on the results from the preliminary study we believe this is about to change and that the topic therefore requires further studying. Several online stockbrokers today provide information and tools for technical analysis to their clients. As the list of indicators to use for creating strategies is so immense it is interesting for an investor to know what actually could be the basis for a profitable investment strategy. <strong><p>The purpose of this thesis is to examine and analyze the returns from trading strategies, based on technical analysis, which professionals use when investing in Nordic shares. <strong><p>The strategies that will be studied are derived from a preliminary study that was carried out before any work on this study began. The purpose of this preliminary study was to determine which strategies professionals use. The way we examine the different strategies is with a trading model built in Microsoft Excel which calculates buy and sell signals depending on which strategy is studied and then evaluates this in comparison with the buy and hold strategy. Testing has been carried out on 15 years of historical data on the most actively trades shares in Sweden, Denmark, Finland and Norway. The data material was divided in five different periods which were tested separately and combined. The study included six trading strategies, six time periods and five countries and consequently tested 144 different combinations of phases, markets and strategies. <strong><p>We conclude that the results of our study are unambiguous as to how the investigated strategies performed in comparison with the buy and hold strategy. Overall there is a very small percentage of the studied strategies that generated excess returns in so many cases that the strategy might be considered to be good in the long term. There were clear differences between how strategies performed during different market trends, and when the strategies were tested on the entire data set which included both ups and downs there were no longer any clear connection to what strategies were viable. There were also some differences concerning the return of the various strategies but since they all performed so poorly none of them should be recommended to an investor. The study also shows that there is no big difference in how the strategies performed on the different Nordic markets.</p></strong></p></strong></p></strong></p></strong></p> / <p><strong><p>Handel utifrån teknisk analys har sitt ursprung i den amerikanska finansbranschen där den länge varit vanligt förekommande, men Sverige har den inte haft samma genomslag. Vi anser, med förstudien som bakgrund att är på väg att förändras och därmed ett intressant ämne att studera vidare. Flera nätmäklare tillhandahåller idag information och verktyg för teknisk analys till sina kunder. Då det finns en uppsjö av verktyg att använda sig av är det intressant för en investerare att veta vilka som faktiskt kan ligga till grund för en lönsam investeringsstrategi.</p><p><strong>Denna studie syftar till att undersöka och analysera avkastningen från handelsstrategier, grundade på teknisk analys, som professionella aktörer använder sig av vid investeringsbeslut i enskilda nordisk aktier. <strong></strong></strong></p><p>De strategier som kommer studeras grundar sig på en förstudie som genomfördes innan arbetet med denna studie påbörjades. Syftet med förstudien var att ta reda på vilka strategier professionella aktörer använder sig av. Själva genomförandet av studien är uppbyggd kring en handelsmodell i Microsoft Excel som beräknar köp- och säljsignaler beroende på vilken strategi som testas och sedan utvärderar denna jämfört med buy and hold strategin. Tester har gjorts på 15 års historisk data för de mest omsatta aktierna i Sverige, Danmark, Finland och Norge. Tidsperioden delades in i fem faser vilka testades separat och dessutom testades hela perioden. Studien omfattade sex strategier och följaktligen testades 144 olika kombinationer av faser, marknader och strategi. <strong></strong></p><p>Vi kan konstatera att resultaten från vår studie är entydiga vad det gäller hur de undersökta strategierna presterade jämfört med buy and hold strategin. Sammantaget var de en liten andel som lyckades generera en överavkastning i så pass många fall att den strategin skall anses vara bra på lång sikt. Det fanns tydliga skillnader i hur de undersökta strategierna presterade under olika marknadstrender, men när strategierna testades på hela datamaterialet där det ingår både upp- och nedgångar fanns inte längre några tydliga samband för vilka strategier som var lönsamma. Det fanns även vissa skillnader gällande den avkastning som de olika strategierna genererade, men då samtliga presterade så pass dåligt bör en investera inte ägna sig åt någon av dem. Vidare visar studien på att det inte är några större skillnader mellan de nordiska marknaderna när det kommer till hur väl de olika strategierna presterar.</p></strong></p>
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Teknisk analys : Är det lönsamt att vara trendig? / Technical analysis : Is the trend your friend?Rolander, Erik, Bagge, David January 2010 (has links)
Trading based on technical analysis has its roots in the U.S. financial industry where it has long been common practice, in Sweden however the trading style has not had the same impact. Based on the results from the preliminary study we believe this is about to change and that the topic therefore requires further studying. Several online stockbrokers today provide information and tools for technical analysis to their clients. As the list of indicators to use for creating strategies is so immense it is interesting for an investor to know what actually could be the basis for a profitable investment strategy. The purpose of this thesis is to examine and analyze the returns from trading strategies, based on technical analysis, which professionals use when investing in Nordic shares. The strategies that will be studied are derived from a preliminary study that was carried out before any work on this study began. The purpose of this preliminary study was to determine which strategies professionals use. The way we examine the different strategies is with a trading model built in Microsoft Excel which calculates buy and sell signals depending on which strategy is studied and then evaluates this in comparison with the buy and hold strategy. Testing has been carried out on 15 years of historical data on the most actively trades shares in Sweden, Denmark, Finland and Norway. The data material was divided in five different periods which were tested separately and combined. The study included six trading strategies, six time periods and five countries and consequently tested 144 different combinations of phases, markets and strategies. We conclude that the results of our study are unambiguous as to how the investigated strategies performed in comparison with the buy and hold strategy. Overall there is a very small percentage of the studied strategies that generated excess returns in so many cases that the strategy might be considered to be good in the long term. There were clear differences between how strategies performed during different market trends, and when the strategies were tested on the entire data set which included both ups and downs there were no longer any clear connection to what strategies were viable. There were also some differences concerning the return of the various strategies but since they all performed so poorly none of them should be recommended to an investor. The study also shows that there is no big difference in how the strategies performed on the different Nordic markets. / Handel utifrån teknisk analys har sitt ursprung i den amerikanska finansbranschen där den länge varit vanligt förekommande, men Sverige har den inte haft samma genomslag. Vi anser, med förstudien som bakgrund att är på väg att förändras och därmed ett intressant ämne att studera vidare. Flera nätmäklare tillhandahåller idag information och verktyg för teknisk analys till sina kunder. Då det finns en uppsjö av verktyg att använda sig av är det intressant för en investerare att veta vilka som faktiskt kan ligga till grund för en lönsam investeringsstrategi. Denna studie syftar till att undersöka och analysera avkastningen från handelsstrategier, grundade på teknisk analys, som professionella aktörer använder sig av vid investeringsbeslut i enskilda nordisk aktier. De strategier som kommer studeras grundar sig på en förstudie som genomfördes innan arbetet med denna studie påbörjades. Syftet med förstudien var att ta reda på vilka strategier professionella aktörer använder sig av. Själva genomförandet av studien är uppbyggd kring en handelsmodell i Microsoft Excel som beräknar köp- och säljsignaler beroende på vilken strategi som testas och sedan utvärderar denna jämfört med buy and hold strategin. Tester har gjorts på 15 års historisk data för de mest omsatta aktierna i Sverige, Danmark, Finland och Norge. Tidsperioden delades in i fem faser vilka testades separat och dessutom testades hela perioden. Studien omfattade sex strategier och följaktligen testades 144 olika kombinationer av faser, marknader och strategi. Vi kan konstatera att resultaten från vår studie är entydiga vad det gäller hur de undersökta strategierna presterade jämfört med buy and hold strategin. Sammantaget var de en liten andel som lyckades generera en överavkastning i så pass många fall att den strategin skall anses vara bra på lång sikt. Det fanns tydliga skillnader i hur de undersökta strategierna presterade under olika marknadstrender, men när strategierna testades på hela datamaterialet där det ingår både upp- och nedgångar fanns inte längre några tydliga samband för vilka strategier som var lönsamma. Det fanns även vissa skillnader gällande den avkastning som de olika strategierna genererade, men då samtliga presterade så pass dåligt bör en investera inte ägna sig åt någon av dem. Vidare visar studien på att det inte är några större skillnader mellan de nordiska marknaderna när det kommer till hur väl de olika strategierna presterar.
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Likviditetsstrategi på Stockholmsbörsen : En studie om likviditetspremiens existens och dess eventuella överavkastningSvartholm, Per, Uhrberg, Magnus January 2012 (has links)
Bakgrund: Det har tidigare konstaterats att det existerar ett samband mellan aktiers likviditet och dess avkastning. Bevis för detta har främst gått att finna på utländska aktiemarknader. På den svenska aktiemarknaden har tidigare utförda studier konstaterat att detta samband inte existerar. Vi vill därför göra en studie på den svenska aktiemarknaden, vilken delvis innefattar en ny tidsperiod för att se om någon likviditetspremie existerar. Syfte: Vårt syfte med denna studie var att undersöka om det är möjligt att uppnå en högre avkastning genom att investera i en portfölj med relativt sett illikvida aktier jämfört med en portfölj bestående av likvida aktier på Stockholmsbörsen samt undersöka om faktorerna likviditet, betavärde samt företagsstorlek signifikant påverkar portföljernas eventuella överavkastning jämfört mot ett lämpligt index. Metod: Vi har skapat tre olika portföljer, med tio aktier i varje vilka representerar de minst, mitterst och mest likvida aktierna enligt vårt valda likviditetsmått, aktieomsättningshastighet. Likviditetsmåttet laggar en månad för att kunna användas som investeringsstrategi. Vi har studerat portföljernas värdeutveckling under perioden september 2003 till december 2011 för att se om portföljernas olika likviditet påverkar avkastningen. Genom regressionsanalyser där aktieomsättningshastighet, betavärde samt storleken använts som oberoende variabler har vi försökt förklara portföljernas överavkastning mot AFGX. Resultat: Vi har kommit fram till att det inte existerar någon likviditetspremie på Stockholmsbörsen under vår valda undersökningsperiod. Det samma gäller under uppåt- respektive nedåtgående marknadstrend. Det enda fallet där en mer illikvid portfölj presterar bäst är under januari månad. / Background: Earlier studies have concluded that there is a connection between a stock’s liquidity and its yield. Proof of this connection has mainly been found on foreign stock exchanges. On the Swedish stock market, earlier studies have concluded that this connection may not exist. The authors therefore intend to do a liquidity study on the Swedish stock market on a partly new time period to see whether this liquidity premium exists or not. Aim: The aim with this study is to investigate if there is a possibility to achieve a higher yield by investing in a portfolio consisting of relatively illiquid stocks contrary a portfolio with highly liquid stocks. We also want to investigate if the factors: liquidity, beta value and company size have a significant impact on the portfolios possible excess return in relation to an appropriate index. Completion: In this study, the authors have constructed three different portfolios consisting of ten stocks, each which represent the least, middle, and highest liquid stocks according to our liquidity measure. This measure has a one-month lag to make it possible to use as an active investment strategy. The authors have studied the portfolios growth during the period September 2003 to December 2011 to investigate if the difference in liquidity has any impact on the return. Through regression analysis, where stock turnover ratio, beta value and company size has been used as independent variables, the study tries to explain the portfolios excess return over the AFGX index. Results: The study concludes that there is no significant liquidity premium during our chosen time period. The same conclusion is drawn on the sub-periods with both an up going and down going market trend. The only period during which an illiquid portfolio outperforms a liquid portfolio is during the month of January.
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Insynspersoners motiv till transaktioner i eget bolag : Varför tenderar insynspersoner att överavkasta? / Insider trades : Why do insiders tend to achieve excess returns on investments in own companies?Tingö, Josephine, Rosell, Maria January 2013 (has links)
Bakgrund: Tidigare forskning har visat att insynspersoner tenderar att överavkasta på investeringar i eget bolag. Det råder dock delade meningar kring varför insynspersoner tenderar att överavkasta. Vid genomgång av tidigare studier påträffades ingen kvalitativ studie, varav vi ansåg det vara av intresse att studera fenomenet genom intervjuer med insynspersoner. Syfte: Uppsatsen syftar till att studera och kartlägga motiven bakom insynspersoners köp- och säljtransaktioner i eget bolag. Med hjälp av tidigare forskning samt en ny infallsvinkel i form av teorier inom behavioural finance analyseras varför insynspersoner tenderar att uppnå överavkastning på investeringar i eget bolag. Genomförande: Studien har genomförts med utgångspunkt i åtta intervjuer med insynspersoner. Resultat från tidigare studier på området låg till grund för vilken information vi med intervjuerna ville uppnå djupare förståelse kring. Den insamlade empirin har analyserats utifrån empirisk forskning och teorier inom behavioural finance. Slutsats: I studien presenteras en ny hypotes vilken förklarar insynspersoners överavkastning som en följd av befintlig lagstiftning. Vi menar att lagstiftningen förhindrar ofördelaktiga handlingar, vilket i sin tur leder till att insynspersoner i större utsträckning än övriga investerare tenderar att undvika psykologiska fallgropar. / Background: Previous researches have shown that insiders tend to achieve excess returns on investments in own companies. However there are still disagreements regarding possible explanations for this phenomenon. In our review of previous research we did not discover any qualitative studies in the area and therefore we found it interesting to study the phenomenon by interviews with insiders. Aim: The purpose of this paper is to study and identify the motives behind insider buy and sell transactions in own companies. By using previous research and also create a new approach through apply theories within behavioural finance we aim to analyze why insiders tend to achieve excess returns on investments in own companies. Completion: This study was conducted based on eight interviews with insiders. Results from previous research formed the basis of what information we wanted to achieve a deeper understanding of through our interviews. The empirical data has been analyzed based on empirical research in the area and theories within behavioural finance. Conclusion: In this paper a new hypothesis is formed which try to explain insiders excess return as an indirect result from the regulations of insider transactions. Thanks to the regulations, impulsive actions are prevented and insiders thereby tend to avoid psychological pitfalls to a greater extent than other investors.
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Ocenění ochranné známky / Brand name valuationMenšíková, Tereza January 2008 (has links)
This graduation theses is about brand name valuation of ProLesk company. In the theoretical part is shown marketing and law conception of brand name and different methods of valuation. Marketing conception is based on the relationship product - consumer. In law conception is important the registration of brand name by national or international organisation. In the practical part is counted the value of brand name ProLesk company. There is used two methods - using royalty fees and excess return.
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Säsongsanomalier på börser i Afrika : En studie om kalendereffekter på afrikanska aktiemarknader och hur dessa skiljer sig från dess västerländska motparter / Seasonal anomalies on stock exchanges in Africa : A study on calendar effects in African stock markets and how they differ from their Western counterparts.Domander, Olof, Larsson, Erik January 2020 (has links)
Investeringar i aktier eller aktiefonder kan få ens pengar att växa genom den kumulativa avkastning som genereras. Genom ränta-på-ränta-effekten kan en liten ökning i avkastning från dessa investeringar få en stor effekt över en lång tidsperiod. På grund av detta etablerar många investerare strategier för att försöka uppnå en högre avkastning än den generella aktiemarknaden. Att slå marknaden har historiskt sett varit svårt vilket går i linje med det rådande paradigmet om att marknader är effektiva. Empirisk forskning har dock visat på återupprepande prismönster, som inneburit att det funnits möjligheter att strategiskt och systematiskt investera för att generera en högre riskjusterad avkastning än marknaden. Dessa prismönster kallas för anomalier och när de är tidsbaserade benämns de vanligtvis som kalendereffekter. Syftet med studien var att undersöka huruvida kalendereffekter även varit förekommande på marknader med mindre utvecklade institutioner och begränsad tidigare forskning. Studien är avgränsad till aktiemarknader i Afrika och har ställts i relation till motsvarande marknader i några av västvärldens mest välutvecklade ekonomier. En jämförelse har gjorts för att undersöka vart och vilka kalendereffekter som funnits samt hur resultatet skiljer sig mellan Afrika och västvärlden. Studien omfattar en tidsperiod från år 2000 fram till 2020. Resultatet visar något vanligare och mer signifikanta kalendereffekter på de afrikanska marknaderna men inte någon annan tydlig övergripande skillnad vid jämförelse med de västerländska marknaderna. Långa positioner vid månadsskiftet och efterföljande dagar alternativt vid slutet av handelsveckan har kunnat ge en högre riskjusterad avkastning än den generella marknaden i flera länder. Under tidsperioden finns det således belägg för att överavkastning kunnat uppnåtts på ett flertal afrikanska aktiemarknader genom systematiskt planerade investeringar. / Investments in equities or equity funds can help to make your money grow through the cumulative returns generated. Through compound interest, a small increase in return on these investments can have a large effect over a long period of time, resulting in many investors establishing strategies to achieve a higher return than the general stock market. Beating the market has historically been difficult which supports the prevailing paradigm that markets are efficient. However, empirical research has shown recurring price patterns, implying that there have been opportunities to strategically and systematically invest to generate a higher risk-adjusted return than the market. These price patterns are called anomalies and when time-based, are usually referred to as calendar effects. The purpose of this study was to examine whether calendar effects were also present in markets with less developed institutions and limited previous research. The study is focused on stock markets in Africa, which have been compared to corresponding markets in some of the most developed economies in the Western world. A comparison has been made to examine where and what calendar effects existed and how the results differ between Africa and the Western world. The study covers a period from 2000 to 2020. The results show slightly more common and significant calendar effects in the African markets, but no other clear overall difference was observed when compared with the Western markets. Long positions at the end of the month and subsequent days, alternatively at the end of the trading week, have been able to produce a higher risk-adjusted return than the general market in several countries. Thus, during this time period, there is evidence that excess returns could have been achieved in a number of African stock markets through systematically planned investments.
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Mimicking Claimed Alpha Generating StrategiesTorén, Patric January 2023 (has links)
This research paper focuses on the implementation and evaluation of Minervini's momentum analysis techniques in an algorithmic approach. The study aimed to assess the limitations and challenges associated with executing Minervini's strategy in an algorithmic trading system. Several technical restrictions, practical application problems, and the exclusion of fundamental and catalyst aspects contribute to the implementation of a primitive variant of Minervini's strategy. The challenges included the subjective nature of base patterns making bases difficult to identify and limitations in risk and position sizing. However, despite the challenges, the algorithmic approach offers advantages such as the ability to analyze a large number of stocks rapidly. It is suggested to use the algorithm as a tool for stock exclusion rather than fully automating the buying and selling decisions. The research investigates the possibility of generating excess returns in Sweden, Denmark, and Finland using the implemented algorithm over different time periods from 2008 to 2023. Hundreds of stocks were divided up into 18 stock portfolios based on market capitalization size calculations for a given year. These portfolios were traded using both the momentum strategy and an index strategy. The empirical results indicate that small-cap portfolios exhibited consistent excess returns compared to mid-cap and large-cap portfolios, particularly during high volatility periods. However, the research did not account for transaction costs, which are essential to evaluate the strategy's net returns in real-world scenarios. Despite the exclusion of transaction costs in the study, the significant excess returns observed in small-cap portfolios indicate that the implemented momentum strategy performs notably better for small-cap stocks compared to mid-cap and large-cap stocks. This finding contradicts the efficient market hypothesis, assuming equal transaction costs across different market capitalizations. Further research should consider incorporating transaction costs to gain a more comprehensive understanding of the strategy's overall performance and its practical implications for various market segments. Future research should consider incorporating transaction costs and optimizing the stop-loss and profit-taking levels, and exploring a weekly-based approach instead of a daily-based approach. Additionally, volume analysis, data handling improvements, and a more detailed analysis of buy and sell decisions are recommended to optimize the algorithm's performance for future research. To summarize, while the implemented algorithm does not fully mimic Minervini's strategy, it offers valuable insights and potential value, especially in small-cap stocks. Further research and optimization are required to enhance its effectiveness and address the identified limitations.
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Besivystančių europos šalių skolos vertybinių popierių pajamingumų pokyčių analizė bei prognozavimas / Analysis and forecasting of european emerging markets government bonds yield changesSafonov, Dmitrij 22 June 2010 (has links)
Darbe atlikta detali aktualių straipsnių, nagrinėjančių įvairių veiksnių įtaka skolos vertybinių popierių pajamingumui, apžvalga. Išskirti keli pagrindiniai pajamingumo pokyčius lemiantys veiksniai: likvidumas, kredito rizika bei bendra makroekonominė padėtis. Siekiant įvertinti nagrinėjamų veiksnių įtaką skolos vertybinių popierių pajamingumo pokyčiams, sukurti vektorinės autoregresijos modeliai skolos vertybinių popierių portfeliams, apibendrinantiems skirtingas skolos vertybinių popierių klases. Palyginus modeliavimo rezultatus, pateikiamos baigiamojo darbo išvados. Darbą sudaro 18 dalių: įvadas, tikslas, uždaviniai, aktualumas, literatūros apžvalga, pagrindiniai skolos vertybinių popierių rinką charakterizuojantys rodikliai, statistiniai metodai, modelio aprašymas, kintamujų aprašymas bei transformacijos, statistinė analizė, trendo išskyrimas, stacionarumo patikrinimas, modeliavimas, modelių palyginimas bei scenarijų analizė, išvados, literatūros sąrašas. / A brief survey of relevant researches on different factors’ impact on bonds’ yields is provided in master thesis. Several main factors were identified: liquidity, credit risk and macroeconomic environment. In order to measure the impact of distinguished factors on the yields’ changes vector autoregressive models for fixed income securities portfolios, generalizing different asset classes, were created. The modeling results are described and analyzed, conclusions are made Structure: introduction, goal, task, relevance, literature overview, the main indicators of sixed income securities market, statistical methods, models’ describtion, variables’ description and transformations, statistical analysis, elimination of the trend, stacionarity check, modeling, models’ comparison and scenario analysis, conclusions, references.
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