This thesis develops a conceptual framework to determine the probability of adopting HT canola when producers are assumed heterogeneous. The model is based on the framework developed by Fulton and Keyowski (1999), but is modified from a deterministic model to a probabilistic model. The study also considers the gross returns from adopting HT canola. Canola production in Manitoba, Canada is chosen as the region of analysis for the empirical component of the study. In 2002, 74 per cent of total canola acres in Manitoba were devoted to HT canola production. Factors such as soil type, producer risk profile, experience, productivity, and management ability are considered as potential determining factors which distinguish adopters of HT technology from non-adopters. Based on an initial assessment of Manitoba canola data, which shows the incomplete adoption of HT technology in Manitoba, a model is developed which considers adoption of a new technology as a function of the characteristics of the adopters. The conceptual model is tested empirically in two-stages. The first stage employs Ordinary Least Squares analysis to estimate the expected yield of different canola varieties to determine whether producers realize a benefit from the adoption of HT varieties. A logit analysis is conducted in the second stage, and considers different attributes of producers such as risk aversion, management ability, productivity and expected yields to determine the probability of producers adopting HT technology. The results show two primary findings. First, certain HT varieties can be shown to give producers higher returns. Second, differentiating characteristics of producers are key in determining the likely adoption of HT canola.

This thesis develops a conceptual framework to determine the probability of adopting HT canola when producers are assumed heterogeneous. The model is based on the framework developed by Fulton and Keyowski (1999), but is modified from a deterministic model to a probabilistic model. The study also considers the gross returns from adopting HT canola. Canola production in Manitoba, Canada is chosen as the region of analysis for the empirical component of the study. In 2002, 74 per cent of total canola acres in Manitoba were devoted to HT canola production. Factors such as soil type, producer risk profile, experience, productivity, and management ability are considered as potential determining factors which distinguish adopters of HT technology from non-adopters. Based on an initial assessment of Manitoba canola data, which shows the incomplete adoption of HT technology in Manitoba, a model is developed which considers adoption of a new technology as a function of the characteristics of the adopters. The conceptual model is tested empirically in two-stages. The first stage employs Ordinary Least Squares analysis to estimate the expected yield of different canola varieties to determine whether producers realize a benefit from the adoption of HT varieties. A logit analysis is conducted in the second stage, and considers different attributes of producers such as risk aversion, management ability, productivity and expected yields to determine the probability of producers adopting HT technology. The results show two primary findings. First, certain HT varieties can be shown to give producers higher returns. Second, differentiating characteristics of producers are key in determining the likely adoption of HT canola.

nÃo hà / A partir de dados dos sistemas corporativos E-controle e Sistema Folha de Pagamento dos servidores pÃblicos do estado do Cearà e dos relatÃrios de auditoria de gestÃo elaborados pela Controladoria e Ouvidoria Geral do Estado no perÃodo de 2008 a 2011, este estudo desenvolveu modelos que permitiram estimar a probabilidade de ocorrÃncia de irregularidades e recomendaÃÃes de auditorias nos ÃrgÃos pÃblicos do Estado do CearÃ. As estimaÃÃes dos modelos de variÃveis dependentes binÃrias permitiram concluir que cerca de 31% das auditorias realizadas apresentaram irregularidades acima da mÃdia, conquanto em 35% destas auditorias foram verificadas recomendaÃÃes acima da mÃdia. A eficiÃncia nos empenhos e o orÃamento executado por servidor do ÃrgÃo analisado influenciam a reduÃÃo do nÃmero de irregularidades conquanto o valor executado por meio de convÃnios està relacionado ao aumento do nÃmero de constataÃÃes e recomendaÃÃes de auditoria. / From corporate data E-control systems and Payroll System for civil servants of the state of Cearà and Management Audit Reports prepared by the Controladoria e Ouvidoria Geral do Estado in the period 2008-2011, this study developed models that allowed estimate the probability of occurrence of irregularities and audit recommendations in public units of the State of CearÃ. The estimates of the models for binary dependent variables showed that about 31% of audits showed irregularities above average, although in 35% of these audits recommendations above average were observed. The efficiency in commitments and in executed budget by the server of the public unit influence the reduction of the detected irregularities while the value executed by voluntary transfer of resources are related to increases in the number of audit findings and recommendations.