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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
1

Finding pathways for enhancing irrigated farming systems in Lebanon / Quelles stratégies pour promouvoir des systèmes de production irriguées au Liban?

El Khansa, Mohamad 30 November 2017 (has links)
L'économie de la région du Moyen-Orient dépend fortement de l'agriculture comme source de nourriture et de revenus. Ces pays ont lancé des politiques agricoles qui préconisent l'intensification de leurs systèmes de production. Ces politiques encouragent une plus grande utilisation des intrants subventionnés et l'achat de la production agricole à des prix subventionnés. La méthodologie de ce travail a consisté à commencer par un sondage complet sur les exploitations agricoles suivi d'une analyse par grappes pour aider à identifier et évaluer la diversité des systèmes agricoles dans la région et leurs performances. Ensuite, proposer des scénarios de variations de la disponibilité et des prix de l'eau, des prix du marché des produits agricoles et des primes accordées aux agriculteurs afin de tester la vulnérabilité des systèmes de culture actuels aux chocs. Et enfin, construire un modèle bio-économique pour aider à capturer les indicateurs de résilience des systèmes agricoles dans la région. Baalbek-Hermel, dans la partie nord de la vallée de Bekka au Liban, a été choisi pour être représentatif en raison du fait qu'il s'agit de la zone la plus désertification dans le pays et l'une de ses zones agricoles les plus pauvres. Il a des conditions biophysiques variées / mosaïques, avec une forte fluctuation des précipitations. L'intensification de l'agriculture dans la région a commencé délibérément dans les années 1970. L'enquête au niveau de la ferme a été effectuée en choisissant d'abord les fermes représentatives: un échantillon de 97 agriculteurs sur 486 ont été sélectionnés et ont reçu un questionnaire quantitatif contenant des questions fermées couvrant le profil socioéconomique du fermier, les pratiques agricoles, la production, les coûts engagés et l'accès au marketing stratégies. Estimation de la quantité d'eau d'irrigation par culture, puisque l'eau d'irrigation est distribuée aux exploitations par heure ou par superficie, et non par le volume d'eau appliqué. Pour estimer la quantité d'eau d'irrigation appliquée par culture et, par la suite, son coût, initialement exprimé en zone ou en temps, deux étapes de calcul ont été définies: cartographier les systèmes spatiaux de distribution d'eau dans la zone d'étude et estimation du débit d'eau pour chaque source de l'eau d'irrigation.Pour classer les différentes exploitations dans la zone d'étude selon leurs modèles de culture, une analyse de composante principale (ACP), suivie de Classification ascendante hiérarchique (CAH) a été effectuée. La typologie de la ferme a ensuite été suivie d'une analyse de sensibilité pour déterminer dans quelle mesure les revenus agricoles étaient sensibles aux prix et aux variations de subvention. L'analyse effectuée visait à évaluer, pour chaque type de ferme, la perte de revenu, mais aussi la perte de productivité en réponse à la suppression des subventions pour chaque culture (blé, raisin et pomme de terre), ou à l'augmentation des prix de l'eau d'irrigation en afin de réduire sa consommation. Enfin, des scénarios de vulnérabilité ont été définis, composés principalement de quatre éléments: horizon temporel, échelle spatiale, forces d'entraînement externes, et indicateurs / variables intermédiaires. Le modèle bio-économique récursif dynamique, est développé pour évaluer les scénarios et calculer les indicateurs de résilience. Nos résultats ont montré que les voies d'intensification ont conduit à cinq types différents de systèmes agricoles. Bien que ces types de cultures suivent des trajectoires différentes, ils atteignent toujours des revenus similaires avec différents impacts environnementaux potentiels. Cette étude montre que l'intensification de l'agriculture a permis aux agriculteurs d'augmenter leurs revenus, mais souvent au détriment de la dégradation de l'environnement. Cependant, cette amélioration reste très dépendante des niveaux de soutien direct ou indirect accordés aux agriculteurs. / The economy of the Middle East relies heavily on agriculture as a source of food and income. These countries have initiated agricultural policies that advocate the intensification of their production systems. These policies encourage greater use of subsidized inputs and the purchase of famers’ production at subsidized prices compared to international market prices. The methodology of this work was to start with comprehensive farms survey followed by a cluster analysis to help identify and assess the farming systems diversity in the area and their performances. Then to propose scenarios of variations in water availability and prices, market prices of agricultural produce, and premiums given to farmers for the purpose of testing the vulnerability of the current cropping systems to shocks. And finally to construct a bio-economic model to help capturing the resilience indicators of the farming systems in the area. Baalbek-Hermel, in the northern part of the Bekka Valley in Lebanon, was selected to be representative for Lebanon as well as the MENA region due to the facts that it is the most desertification prone area in country and one of its poorest agricultural areas. It has diverse /mosaic biophysical conditions, with high fluctuation in rainfall. Agricultural intensification in the area started deliberately in 1970. Survey at the farm level was conducted by first selecting representative farms: a sample of 97 farmers out of 486 were selected and given a quantitative questionnaire containing closed questions covering the farmer’s socio-economic profile, farming practices, production, costs incurred, and marketing access strategies. Estimation of amount of irrigation water per crop followed since irrigation water is distributed to farms on a per hour or per area basis, and not based on the volume of water applied. To estimate the amount of irrigation water applied per crop, and subsequently its cost, which is initially expressed as area or time, two calculation steps were defined: mapping the spatial water distribution systems in the study area, and estimation of water flow for each source of irrigation water. To classify the different farms in the study area according to their cropping patterns, a principal component analysis (PCA), followed by Hierarchical Ascendant Classification (HAC) was performed. The farm typology was then followed by a sensitivity analysis to investigate the extent to which farm incomes, in the study region, were sensitive to prices and subsidy variabilities. This includes sensitivity to allocated premiums or/and product price, and irrigation water prices, taking into consideration farming system diversity in the region. The analysis carried out was intended to assess, for each farm type, income loss, but also productivity loss in response to the suppression of subsidies for each crop (wheat tobacco, grape, and potato), or to the increase in irrigation water prices in order to reduce its consumption. Finally, scenarios for vulnerability were defined, which were composed of mainly four components: time horizon, spatial scale, external driving forces, and indicators/intermediate variables. The dynamic recursive bio-economic model was developed to assess the scenarios and calculate the resilience indicators. Our results showed that intensification pathways led to five different types of farming systems, except for conventional extensive cereal farms. Although these farming types follow different trajectories, they still achieve similar incomes with different potential environmental impacts. Beyond the results obtained at study zone level, this study shows that the intensification of agriculture has allowed farmers to increase their incomes, but often at the cost of environmental degradation. However, this improvement remains very dependent on direct or indirect support levels granted to farmers.
2

A bio-socio-economic simulation model for management of the red sea urchin fishery in Chile

del Campo Barquín, Luis Matias January 2002 (has links)
This study focused on the management of the red sea urchin Loxechinus albus fishery in Chile. The main objective was to design, construct, implement and assess a computer-based simulation model to analyse the biological effects, socio-economic consequences and spatial dynamics resulting from coastal management plans applied to this resource under the system of AMEBR. This was accomplished by using systems dynamics (SD) and geographical information systems (GIS) modelling, in a process of model development, run, optimisation, sensitivity analysis and risk management, and a series of field-based activities carried out at the cove of Quintay. The GIS model developed for allocating sea urchins restocking sites offered a flexible, cost-effective, user-friendly and descriptive technique for support decision-making on management of this species and other benthic resources. Final site selection for restocking was based on the identification, quantification and selection of higher suitability¦availability combinations (site categories). This map showed 16 different suitability¦availability combinations or site categories, ranging from 4¦100 to 8¦100 (suitability points¦availability %). These had an average of 6.44¦69.37 (covering an area of 82.5 Ha overall equivalent to 81.21% of the study area. This site classification demonstrated high heterogeneity between options, and revealed the full variety of alternatives for decision-making. More importantly, the generally high suitability indexes as well as available area emphasised the prospects for restocking sea urchins in this study area. Over and above of the quantitative outcomes obtained from running the GISRM (suitable and available restocking sites) and the BSESM (alternative strategic management plans), the case study-based analysis made it possible to disclose the wider issues related to the red sea urchin coastal management. These results demonstrated the biological inefficiency of traditional size/seasonal restriction-based approach (macro-scenario 1) for sustainable management of the target species. More importantly, final outcomes strongly suggested that a combination of adaptive restocking-based enhancement activities and flexible exploitation constituted a highly attractive approach (macro-scenario 3) for stock management of this fishery in terms of harvestable stock and related incomes. However from the economic analysis, stocking was also found to be economically unfeasible, being a rather cost intensive exercise negatively affected by high natural mortality rates. A single-variable optimisation analysis demonstrated that a higher survival rate is needed to generate sufficient profits to cover major restocking costs and a positive payment, or a cost reduction is essential to make up for the loss. On top to these practical constraints, based on the distinctive modest economic situation prevailing for most Chilean coves and hence their limited capacity to pay for stocking material, unless adequate and constant funding is available to support artisanal associations, they are very unlikely to develop mass release programmes. Given the economic (i.e.: high operating costs) and technical (i.e.: low survival rates) limitations conditioning stocking-based management cost-effectiveness and applicability, wide implementation of mass releases as a major approach for management of the red sea urchin fishery is very unlikely to take place in Chile. This study presents a methodology and offers a tool to design, evaluate and optimise coastal management plans for the red sea urchin in a dynamic, interactive, systematic, integrated and flexible way. The optional strategic management plans proposed on this study may not be applied equally to any AMEBR, as they are the outputs arising from a single cove-specific analysis. Still, the complete methodological framework and analysis procedures developed may be applied to run the BSESM and optimise management of a red sea urchin fishery at any other AMEBR case of study.

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