A Dissertação apresenta as principais mudanças verificadas no Setor Elétrico Brasileiro e os seus reflexos nas atividades de planejamento e estudos de mercado. Examina os desafios do mercado de energia para as distribuidoras de energia elétrica, advindos com o dinamismo comercial e as obrigações institucionais provenientes do novo contexto setorial. Evidencia que os estudos de mercado podem apoiar significativamente as distribuidoras, necessitando para tanto, efetuar mudanças estruturais e metodológicas. A utilização de modelos baseados em usos finais de energia e técnicas de cenários é a mais adequada. / After the restructuring of the Brazilian power sector during the 1990’s, a new set of rules and players (regulators, traders, etc.) was introduced. This situation resulted in significantly impacting the distribution companies in terms of market risks and commercial opportunities. Electric power market assessments that provide fundamental information to the system and tariff planning groups can also be used to support the distribution companies in analyzing various questions within the new rules that have been created. These questions include such items as: How much energy should be contracted in the future in the wholesale market? How much opportunity is available in offering commercial services to the customer? This work describes the main changes that have occurred due to the restructuring, such as: the privatization process, a wholesale market implementation, rules for energy trading, and planning and regulatory process. The main challenges for distribution companies as a result of these changes are identified, especially focusing on energy trading in retail and wholesale markets. The process of electric power market assessments is presented and describing the accepted methodology used for demand forecasting for distribution companies. Information required by distribution companies in order to deal with the market challenges are specified – e.g. energy trading, market risks and customer relationship. It is concluded there is a need to obtain detailed information about consumers and to develop market forecast for specific time frame. It must take into consideration all the issues around the retail market – the study needs to analyze the basic factors that impact customer consumption. In order to improve the electric market assessment, it has been useful to apply specific models. After reviewing the existing tools for electric power market assessments (analysis and forecast), it has been found that the models that combined methods of end use analysis with scenario analysis are most effective. In this way, the distribution companies needs are met and the process also results in better market data for planning and regulatory agencies.

A Dissertação apresenta as principais mudanças verificadas no Setor Elétrico Brasileiro e os seus reflexos nas atividades de planejamento e estudos de mercado. Examina os desafios do mercado de energia para as distribuidoras de energia elétrica, advindos com o dinamismo comercial e as obrigações institucionais provenientes do novo contexto setorial. Evidencia que os estudos de mercado podem apoiar significativamente as distribuidoras, necessitando para tanto, efetuar mudanças estruturais e metodológicas. A utilização de modelos baseados em usos finais de energia e técnicas de cenários é a mais adequada. / After the restructuring of the Brazilian power sector during the 1990’s, a new set of rules and players (regulators, traders, etc.) was introduced. This situation resulted in significantly impacting the distribution companies in terms of market risks and commercial opportunities. Electric power market assessments that provide fundamental information to the system and tariff planning groups can also be used to support the distribution companies in analyzing various questions within the new rules that have been created. These questions include such items as: How much energy should be contracted in the future in the wholesale market? How much opportunity is available in offering commercial services to the customer? This work describes the main changes that have occurred due to the restructuring, such as: the privatization process, a wholesale market implementation, rules for energy trading, and planning and regulatory process. The main challenges for distribution companies as a result of these changes are identified, especially focusing on energy trading in retail and wholesale markets. The process of electric power market assessments is presented and describing the accepted methodology used for demand forecasting for distribution companies. Information required by distribution companies in order to deal with the market challenges are specified – e.g. energy trading, market risks and customer relationship. It is concluded there is a need to obtain detailed information about consumers and to develop market forecast for specific time frame. It must take into consideration all the issues around the retail market – the study needs to analyze the basic factors that impact customer consumption. In order to improve the electric market assessment, it has been useful to apply specific models. After reviewing the existing tools for electric power market assessments (analysis and forecast), it has been found that the models that combined methods of end use analysis with scenario analysis are most effective. In this way, the distribution companies needs are met and the process also results in better market data for planning and regulatory agencies.