The purpose of this study is to determine alternative ways of controlling costs that are more reliable, updated and useful than traditional budgeting. To identify the advantages and disadvantages of the budgeting process. To determine whether a South African company combines different planning methods to suit its specific planning needs. To determine how key performance drivers for planning purposes are chosen in the event that the company makes use of key performance drivers. Finally, to determine the relevance of traditional budgeting when combined with alternative planning methods for a South African company. This study should contribute greatly to how unique the budgeting process has become in the modern economy. Unlike previous studies that only focussed on abandoning budgets completely or on alternative methods, this study will investigate the use of the traditional budget in conjunction with alternative planning and the extent of alternative planning methods being used. As far as it could be determined, this will be the first study of the implementation of alternative budgeting in conjunction with the traditional budget in a South African context. The study will also make a unique contribution by investigating new combinations of planning techniques used by a South African company. For this mixed-method study, one single case was selected for an in-depth analysis of the budgeting process. Data was collected by means of questionnaires that were given to all participants of the budgeting process and a once off face-to-face in-depth interview with the CFO of the company. It was concluded that the budgeting process is unique for this South African company. It includes various alternative planning methods used in conjunction with the annual budgeting process. Disadvantages and advantages of the budgeting process were discussed as found form previous research and from the current study. Alternative methods of planning used by the company in conjunction to the traditional budget were identified and discussed. Further research in a South African context would prove very interesting on the unique budgeting processes implemented by South African companies today. / Dissertation (MCom)--University of Pretoria, 2012. / Financial Management / unrestricted

[pt] Essa tese apresenta uma abordagem alternativa para orçamento de capital, denominada Métodos Modificados de Avaliação de Projetos de Investimentos em Ambiente Fuzzy, para avaliação de projetos em condições de incerteza. O desenvolvimento da abordagem proposta está dividido em duas fases: na primeira fase, é estabelecido um modelo determinístico generalizado que prevê explicitamente a utilização dos custos de oportunidade associados com os fluxos de caixa intermediários de um projeto de investimento empresarial. Os pressupostos implícitos dos métodos modificados da taxa interna de retorno e do valor presente líquido são incluídos nos métodos do índice de lucratividade e do tempo de retorno do investimento total. Os indicadores resultantes são o índice de lucratividade modificado e o tempo de retorno do investimento modificado. Essa abordagem unificada tem a propriedade de coincidir as decisões de aceitação / rejeição de projetos de investimentos de mesmos horizontes de vida e escalas com as do valor presente líquido modificado e, portanto, maximizam a riqueza do acionista. Na segunda fase, números fuzzy triangulares são utilizados para representar as incertezas das variáveis de um projeto de investimento: os fluxos de caixa, as taxas de financiamento e de reinvestimento e a taxa de desconto ajustada ao risco. Os indicadores fuzzy resultantes são o valor presente líquido modificado, a taxa interna de retorno modificada, o índice de lucratividade modificado e o tempo de retorno do investimento modificado. A aplicação de custos de oportunidades e de critérios difusos para a atribuição dos valores das variáveis permite obter resultados mais realistas e compatíveis com as condições de mercado. Devido à complexidade dos cálculos envolvidos, novas funções financeiras de uso amigável são desenvolvidas utilizando Visual Basic for Applications do MS-Excel: três, para avaliação de projetos em condições de certeza (MVPL, MIL e MTRI) e quatro para avaliação em condições de incerteza (MVPLfuzzy, MTIRfuzzy, MILfuzzy e MTRIfuzzy). A principal contribuição dessa tese é a elaboração de uma nova abordagem unificada para orçamento de capital em condições de incerteza que enfatiza os pontos fortes dos métodos modificados do valor presente líquido e da taxa interna de retorno, enquanto contorna os conflitos e as desvantagens individuais dos métodos convencionais. Os resultados mostram que os métodos propostos são mais vantajosos e mais simples de se utilizar que outros métodos de avaliação de investimentos em condições de incerteza. / [en] This thesis presents an alternative approach to capital budgeting, named Fuzzy Modified Methods of Capital Budgeting, for evaluating investment projects under uncertainties. The development of the proposed approach is divided into two phases: in the first stage, a general deterministic model that explicitly provides for the use of the opportunity costs associated with the interim cash flows of a project is established. The implicit assumptions of the modified internal rate of return and modified net present value methods are included in the index of profitability and in the total payback period. The resulting indicators are the modified index of profitability and the modified total payback period. This unified approach has the property to match the decisions of acceptance / rejection of investment projects with same horizons of life and same scales with the decisions of the modified net present value method and therefore maximize shareholder wealth. In the second phase, triangular fuzzy numbers are used to represent the uncertainties of the project variables: cash flows and reinvestment, financing and risk-adjusted discount rates. The resulting indicators are the fuzzy modified net present value, the fuzzy modified internal rate of return, the fuzzy modified index of profitability and the fuzzy modified total payback period. The application of opportunity costs and fuzzy criteria for determining the variables allows obtaining more realists and consistent results with the market conditions. Due to the complexity of the calculations involved, new MS-Excel financial functions are developed by using Visual Basic for Applications: three functions for evaluating projects under conditions of certainty (MVPL, MIL and MTRI) and four functions for evaluating projects under uncertainties (MVPLfuzzy, MTIRfuzzy, MILfuzzy and MTRIfuzzy). The main contribution of this thesis is to develop a unifying approach to capital budgeting under uncertainty that emphasizes the strengths of the methods of modified net present value and modified internal rate of return, while bypassing the individual conflicts and drawbacks of the conventional methods. Results show that the proposed methods are more advantageous and simpler to use than other methods of investment appraisal under uncertainties.

The purpose of this project is to describe and explain the foreign investment decision process in the uncertain and turbulent environment of transition economy. By getting an in-depth understanding of how decision-making works in the environment of transition economy, the study intends to contribute to the development of business administration theory in the area of foreign investment decision-making, particularly its application in the turbulent and uncertain world. Theoretical ‘blocks’, elaborated on the basis of literature study, include the following concepts: the framework of transition economy; initial motivation (or reasons) of companies to make foreign direct investments (FDI); investigation of the investment climate and information collection methods; project evaluation and investment decision criteria; risk assessment factors and risk reduction measures. Transition economy is defined in the study as ‘a non-planned, non-market economy’ where the new emerging market institutions coexist with the bureaucracy and hierarchy inherited from the old administrative system. Investment projects, therefore, should probably be seen as being under institutional influence from both the local (i.e. transition economy) and the Western investor’s home country environments. The empirical data presented in the paper also shows that it is necessary to establish the relevant economic, legal, political and social institutions in order to attract FDI. The study further includes the analysis of the main components and features of transition economies and their influence on FDI decision-making. One of the results of the study is that FDI decision-making in transition economies is largely consistent with different theoretical approaches suggested in the literature. On the other hand, the empirical support obtained for different theoretical approaches is often questionable and opened to alternative interpretations. The presented project suggests that theoretical perspectives do not preclude each other, but rather have a complimentary character. The study attempts to contribute to the mainstream FDI theories through a firm-level approach based on the case studies. Two in-depth case studies are presented in the paper: Ericsson’s direct investments in Russia and Vattenfall’s investments in the Baltic countries. A formal questionnaire based on the parameters of theoretical ‘blocks’ was created and 25 top executives from Ericsson and Vattenfall who participated in FDI decision-making were surveyed. The empirical investigation took place during the period 1997 - 1998 with partial updating of the cases during the year 2000.  The study shows that where companies confront stable environments, investment decision routines and procedures will be less necessary and important than where market uncertainty is high. The strong appreciation of the local business partners for properly done investment calculations increases the importance of capital budgeting in transition economies more than in developed market economies. Besides, traditional investment appraisal methods provide managers with an ‘objective’ or ‘materialistic’ feedback for the decision-making in the rapidly changing uncertain environment. On the other hand, the study emphasises the importance of strategy over financial techniques and argues that FDI decisions in transition economies should be based on methods consistent with the company’s long-term objectives. In case of permanent changes, new approaches as well as better co-ordination of traditional techniques with strategic, political, historical, geographical and cultural issues are required. Ericsson’ s direct investments in Russia are presented in the paper in connection with other factors: the company’s historical involvement in Russia, marketing strategy, human resource development, privatisation and restructuring of the telecommunication sector in Russia, etc. Nordic Electric Power Co-operation (Nordel), the EU’ s decision in 1996 to create an internal electricity market in Europe, Baltic ring study, future plans to privatise the energy companies in the Baltic countries, etc., are the framework to present the second case. An application of project evaluation and risk assessment techniques for broader and more complicated environments shows that investment decision-making is probably as much, if not more, a social, political and cultural technology as an economic one. The study argues then that the rational choice decision-making model often co-exists with alternative models elaborated in social science - limited rationality, political and garbage can. According to the empirical data, the investment decisions are largely based on intuition, business experience and judgement, personal contacts with representatives from the local country, and these investment criteria are inevitable and acceptable in a situation of total chaos and permanent change. The right chosen partner, for example, is one of the major criteria for the success of the investment project in a transition economy. One of the outcomes of this study is that the revitalised form of investment decision-making will differ rather markedly from much of what has gone before: less emphasis on the quantitative aspects of capital budgeting, more on the qualitative aspects of companies and investment environment. The project also argues that determinants, approaches and criteria of investment activity in transition economies are largely consistent with patterns observed in other parts of the world. A few specific environmental conditions of transition economies, however, are shown in the study to affect the pattern of FDI decision-making. The level of turbulence is still different compared to the developed market economies due to uncertainties and unpredictibilities associated with environment of transition economies. Other major differences are the large power distance with authoritarian leadership, strong hierarchy and bureaucracy as well as the vital role of personal contacts in transition economies. It is not clear, however, if these features of transition economies should be seen as inherited from the past communist system or as an alternative way to organise the economic actors through networks, a way that is natural and appropriate for the majority of Asian societies.