We propose a prototype model of market dynamics in which all functional relationships are linear. We take into account three borders, defined by linear functions, which are intrinsic to the economic reasoning: non-negativity of prices; downward rigidity of capacity (depreciation) and a capacity constraint for the production decision. Given the linear specification, the borders are the only source for the emerging of cyclical and more complex dynamics. In particular, we discuss centre bifurcations, border collision bifurcations and degenerate flip bifurcations - dynamic phenomena the occurrence of which are intimately related to the existence of borders. / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

We explore the effects of Brexit on trade patterns and on the spatial distribution of industry between the United Kingdom and the European Union and within the EU. Our study adopts a new economic geography (NEG) perspective developing a linear model with three regions, the UK and two separated regions composing the EU. The 3-region framework and linear demands allow for different trade patterns. Two possible ante-Brexit situations are possible, depending on the interplay between local market size, local competition and trade costs: industrial agglomeration or dispersion. Considering a soft and a hard Brexit scenario, the ante-Brexit situation is altered substantially, depending on which scenario prevails. UK firms could move to the larger EU market, even in the peripheral region, reacting to the higher trade barriers, relocation representing a substitute for trade. Alternatively, some EU firms could move in the more isolated UK market finding shelter from the competition inside the EU. We also consider the post-Brexit scenario of deeper EU integration, leading to a weakening of trade links between the EU and the UK. Our analysis also reveals a highly complex bifurcation sequence leading to many instances of multistability, intricate basins of attraction and cyclical and chaotic dynamics. / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

This article investigates agglomeration processes in aging societies by introducing an overlapping generation structure into a New Economic Geography model. Whether higher economic integration leads to spatial concentration of economic activity crucially hinges on the economies' demographic properties. While population aging as represented by declining birth rates strengthens agglomeration processes, declining mortality rates weaken them. This is due to the fact that we allow for nonconstant population size. In particular, we show that population growth acts as an important dispersion force that augments the distributional effects on agglomeration processes resulting from the turnover of generations. (author's abstract) / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

We give a review of classical and recent results on maximization of expected utility for an investor who has the possibility of trading in a financial market. Emphasis will be given to the duality theory related to this convex optimization problem. For expository reasons we first consider the classical case where the underlying probability space is finite. This setting has the advantage that the technical diffculties of the proofs are reduced to a minimum, which allows for a clearer insight into the basic ideas, in particular the crucial role played by the Legendre-transform. In this setting we state and prove an existence and uniqueness theorem for the optimal investment strategy, and its relation to the dual problem; the latter consists in finding an equivalent martingale measure optimal with respect to the conjugate of the utility function. We also discuss economic interpretations of these theorems. We then pass to the general case of an arbitrage-free financial market modeled by an R^d-valued semi-martingale. In this case some regularity conditions have to be imposed in order to obtain an existence result for the primal problem of finding the optimal investment, as well as for a proper duality theory. It turns out that one may give a necessary and sufficient condition, namely a mild condition on the asymptotic behavior of the utility function, its so-called reasonable asymptotic elasticity. This property allows for an economic interpretation motivating the term "reasonable". The remarkable fact is that this regularity condition only pertains to the behavior of the utility function, while we do not have to impose any regularity conditions on the stochastic process modeling the financial market (to be precise: of course, we have to require the arbitrage-freeness of this process in a proper sense; also we have to assume in one of the cases considered below that this process is locally bounded; but otherwise it may be an arbitrary R^d-valued semi-martingale). (author's abstract) / Series: Report Series SFB "Adaptive Information Systems and Modelling in Economics and Management Science"

Boom and bust cycles are widely documented in the literature on industry dynamics. Rigidities and delays in capacity adjustment in combination with bounded rational behavior have been identified as central driving forces. We construct a model that features only these two elements and we show that this is indeed sufficient to reproduce some stylized facts of a boom and bust cycle. The bifurcation diagrams summarizing the dynamic behavior reveal complex cycles and in particular also abrupt changes in the nature of these cycles. We apply new insights from the mathematical theory of piecewise smooth dynamic systems - in particular, results from the theory of border collision bifurcations - and show that the very existence of borders such as capacity constraints or nonnegativity constraints may lie behind abrupt changes in the dynamic behavior of economic variables. (author's abstract) / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series