This study gives an insight into the behaviour and performance of large speculators and large hedgers in 29 US futures markets. Using a trading determinant model and priced risk factors such as net positions and sentiment index, results suggest hedgers (speculators) exhibit significant positive feedback trading in 15 (7) markets. Information variables like the S&P500 index dividend yield, corporate yield spread and the three months treasury bill rate were mostly unimportant in large players’ trading decisions. Hedgers had better market timing abilities than speculators in judging the direction of the market in one month. The poor market timing abilities and poor significance of positive feedback results suggest higher trading frequency intervals for speculators. Hedging pressures, which measure the presence of risk premium in futures markets, were insignificant mostly in agricultural markets. As a robust test of hedging pressures, price pressure tests found risk premium to be still significant for silver, crude oil and live cattle. The positive feedback behaviour and negative market timing abilities suggest hedgers in heating oil and Japanese yen destabilize futures prices, and points to a need to check CFTC’s (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) position limits regulation in these markets. In fact, large hedgers in these two markets are more likely to be leading behaviour, in that they have more absolute net positions than speculators. Alternatively stated, positive feedback hedgers in these two markets are more likely to lead institutions and investors to buy (sell) overpriced (underpriced) contracts, eventually leading to divergence of prices away from fundamentals. / Atlhought hedgers in crude oil had significant positive feedback behaviour and negative market timing skills, they would not have much of a destabilizing effect over remaining players because the mean net positions of hedgers and speculators were not far apart. While the results are statistically significant, it is suggested these could be economically significant, in that there have been no regulation on position limits at all for hedgers compared to speculators who are imposed with strict limits from the CFTC. Further, mean equations were regressed against decomposed variables, to see how much of the futures returns are attributed to expected components of variables such as net positions, sentiment and information variables. While the expected components of variables are derived by ensuring there are enough ARMA (autoregressive and moving average) terms to make them statistically and economically reliable, the unexpected components of variables measure the residual on differences of the series from its mean. When decomposing net positions against returns, it was found expected net positions to be negatively related to hedgers’ returns in mostly agricultural markets. Speculators’ expected (unexpected) positions were less (more) significant in explaining actual returns, suggesting hedgers are more prone in setting an expected net position at the start of the trading month to determine actual returns rather than readjusting their net positions frequently all throughout the remaining days of the month. While it important to see how futures returns are determined by expected and unexpected values, it is also essential to see how volatility is affected as well. / In an attempt to cover three broad types of volatility measures, idiosyncratic volatility, GARCH based volatility (variance based), and PARCH based volatility (standard deviation) are used. Net positions of hedgers (expected and unexpected) tend to have less effect on idiosyncratic volatility than speculators that tended to add to volatility, reinforcing that hedgers trading activity hardly affect the volatility in their returns. This suggest they are better informed by having a better control over their risk (volatility) measures. The GARCH model showed more reliance of news of volatility from previous month in speculators’ volatility. Hedgers’ and speculators’ volatility had a tendency to decay over time except for hedgers’ volatility in Treasury bonds and coffee, and gold and S&P500 for speculators’ volatility. The PARCH model exhibited more negative components in explaining current volatility. Only in crude oil, heating oil and wheat (Chicago) were idiosyncratic volatility positively related to return, reinforcing the suggestion for stringent regulation in the heating oil market. Expected idiosyncratic volatility was lower (higher) for hedgers (speculators) as expected under portfolio theory. Markets where variance or standard deviation are smaller than those of speculators support the price insurance theory where hedging enables traders to insure against the risk of price fluctuations. Where variance or standard deviation of hedgers is greater than speculators, this suggest the motivation to use futures contracts not primarily to reduce risk, but by institutional characteristics of the futures exchanges like regulation ensuring liquidity. / Results were also supportive that there was higher fluctuations in currency and financial markets due to the higher number of contracts traded and players present. Further, the four models (GARCH normal, GARCH t, PARCH normal and PARCH t) showed returns were leptokurtic. The PARCH model, under normal distribution, produced the best forecast of one-month return in ten markets. Standard deviation and variance for both hedgers’ and speculators’ results were mixed, explained by a desire to reduce risk or other institutional characteristics like regulation ensuring liquidity. Moreover, idiosyncratic volatility failed to accurately forecast the risk (standard deviation or variance based) that provided a good forecast of one-month return. This supports not only the superiority of ARCH based models over models that assume equally weighted average of past squared residuals, but also the presence of time varying volatility in futures prices time series. The last section of the study involved a stability and events analysis, using recursive estimation methods. The trading determinant model, mean equation model , return and risk model, trading activity model and volatility models were all found to be stable following the effect of major global economic events of the 1990s. Models with risk being proxied as standard deviation showed more structural breaks than where variance was used. Overall, major macroeconomic events didn’t have any significant effect upon the large hedgers’ and speculators’ behaviour and performance over the last decade.

The thesis deals with the analysis of the oil market with emphasis on the period from 2010 to May 2017. The aim of the thesis is to test the sensitivity of the oil price to the selected fundamental indicators and trading positions of the traders according to CFTC data. The work, in addition to the theoretical introduction, contains information on key fundamentals such as US oil production, the process of publishing reports on the state of oil stocks in the US, and the process of publishing reports on oil market traders' positions and subsequent data analysis. It confirmed that the price of oil correlates significantly with traders' positions, but the Granger test suggested that the change in the price of oil is causally affecting the position of traders and not vice versa.

L’objectif principal de ce projet de recherche doctorale est la mise au point d’approches méthodologiques fiables et reproductibles permettant la caractérisation génétique de cellules rares circulantes isolées par la méthode de filtration ISET® (Rarecells®, France). La première application développée consiste en la détection des mutations du gène suppresseur de tumeur VHL (Von Hippel Lindau) dans les cellules rares circulantes (CRC) uniques isolées du sang de 30 patients atteints de carcinome rénal à cellules claires (CRCC), et réalisée comparativement à l’analyse cytopathologique. L’étude génétique a également été conduite en parallèle dans les 30 tissus tumoraux correspondants. Les résultats ont mis en lumière une potentielle complémentarité de l’approche de génétique moléculaire sur cellules uniques avec l’analyse cytomorphologique de référence et suggèrent que combiner ces approches permettrait d’obtenir une plus grande sensibilité de détection des cellules cancéreuses circulantes chez les patients atteints de CRCC. Une deuxième application a consisté en le développement d’une approche innovante pour le diagnostic prénatal non-invasif des maladies génétiques récessives par analyse de cellules trophoblastiques rares collectées au niveau du col de l’utérus. Enfin, des développements supplémentaires ont permis d’optimiser les analyses de séquençage à haut débit et de les appliquer à des CRC individuelles isolées par ISET®. Cette nouvelle approche, associée à l’isolement de CRC non fixées, est en mesure de fournir des données génétiques élargies à l’exome entier pour des applications à la fois en oncologie prédictive et en diagnostic prénatal non invasif. / The aim of this doctoral research project is the development of reliable and reproducible methodological approaches enabling the genetic characterization of circulating rare cells (CRC) isolated by ISET® filtration (Rarecells®, France). The first application developed consists in detecting mutations of the VHL (Von Hippel Lindau) tumor suppressor gene in single CRC isolated from the blood of 30 patients patients with clear cell renal cell carcinoma (ccRCC), assessed according to the results obtained by cytopathological analysis. In parallel, genetic analysis of VHL mutations was conducted in the corresponding tumor tissues. Results revealed a potential complementarity of the molecular genetic approach targeted to single cells with the reference method of cytopathological analysis and suggested that combining both strategies could improve the sensitivity of circulating cancer cells’ detection in patients with ccRCC. A second application consisted in the development of an innovative approach for non-invasive prenatal diagnosis of recessive genetic diseases by analysis of rare trophoblastic cells collected from the cervix. Finally, further developments allowed to optimize high-throughput sequencing analyses and to apply them to single CRC isolated by ISET®. This approach, combined with the isolation of living CRC, enabled us to obtain broader genetic data from the whole exome and should foster innovative applications to both predictive oncology and non-invasive prenatal diagnosis.

Of the findings, the European Commission established in its report on Energy Sector Inquiry, market manipulation constituted a major concern for the functioning and integrity of EU energy sectors. The Commission argued that the responsibility for high prices in wholesale energy markets could be attributed to manipulative practices of energy incumbents and the trust in the operation of operation of sector was largely compromised, due to these practices. Remedies, EU competition law provided, were considered as insufficient to resolve these shortcomings and thus should be supplemented with regulatory-based tools. The findings of the Energy Sector Inquiry and subsequent consultation documents by multiple EU institutions paved the way for the adoption of the Regulation on wholesale energy market integrity and transparency, REMIT, which incorporated into an anti-manipulation rule, specifically designed to prohibit and prosecute manipulative practices in EU wholesale energy markets. Nevertheless, as EU case law on market manipulation has yet to develop and there are uncertainties with respect to the concept of market manipulation. Furthermore REMIT does not preclude the jurisdiction of EU competition law, questions arise as to the scope and the extent of the application of this prohibition. Throughout its chapters, this book explores the scope of and the case law on market manipulation to determine what types of market practices are regarded as manipulative and thus prohibited under anti-manipulation rules. It also focuses on the interplay between REMIT and EU competition law and evaluates factors and circumstances that determine when and what market misconduct can be subject to enforcement proceedings under both anti-manipulation and antitrust rules. As the development of a single, coherent, rulebook that can be relied upon by market participant is fundamental for the functioning of EU wholesale energy markets, the book, finally, provides proposals and measures that can mitigate and resolve the legal uncertainties regarding the regulatory framework REMIT established.

This thesis evaluates the Children’s Fitness Tax Credit and similar credits to determine whether they are suitable to increase physical activity levels in Canada. It begins by reviewing the literature on physical activity to establish that increasing physical activity is a worthy public policy goal. It then reviews the literature on tax expenditures and health behaviour interventions to provide information in order to evaluate the credits. The credits are then described and their stated purpose is discussed. This description establishes how quickly the credits expanded from one small credit to many. One of the credits, the Active Families Benefit, requires a new concept to evaluate it as it is not simply a tax measure or a spending measure. The term hybrid tax measure is introduced to explore this credit. An evaluation of the credits considering their effectiveness, efficiency and equity in determining their suitability to increase physical activity is performed and the conclusion is made that they are unlikely to be effective and that the inequity of the credits is problematic, particularly in light of this ineffectiveness finding. It is recommended that the credits be repealed and no new credits be created, but as repeal is unlikely, alternative recommendations are also provided.