Frequently, the Sun explosively releases bubbles of magnetized plasma known as coronal mass ejections (CMEs), which can produce adverse space weather effects at Earth. Accurate space weather forecasting requires knowledge of the trajectory of CMEs. Decades of observations show that CMEs can deflect from a purely radial trajectory, however, no consensus exists as to the cause of these deflections. We developed a model for CME deflection and rotation from magnetic forces, called Forecasting a CME's Altered Trajectory (ForeCAT). ForeCAT has been designed to run fast enough for large parameter phase space studies, and potentially real-time predictions. ForeCAT reproduces the general trends seen in observed CME deflections. In particular, CMEs deflect toward regions of minimum magnetic energy - frequently the Heliospheric Current Sheet (HCS) on global scales. The background magnetic forces decrease rapidly with distance and quickly become negligible. Most deflections and rotations can be well-described by assuming constant angular momentum beyond 10 Rs. ForeCAT also reproduces individual observed CME deflections - the 2008 December 12, 2008 April 08, and 2010 July 12 CMEs. By determining the reduced chi-squared best fit between the ForeCAT results and the observations we constrain parameters related to the CME and the background solar wind. Additionally, we constrain whether different models for the low corona magnetic backgrounds can produce the observed CME deflection. We explore the space weather of cool M dwarfs (dMs) with surface magnetic field strengths of order kG. dMs have extreme CMEs and flares and close-in habitable zones. We use ForeCAT to explore the deflections corresponding to the range of plausible CME masses and speeds for the dM V374 Peg. The deflection of the dM CMEs exceeds their solar counterparts, and the strong magnetic gradients surrounding the dM's Astrospheric Current Sheet (ACS, analogous to the Sun's HCS) can trap the CMEs that reach it. Exoplanets which orbit in the plane of the ACS will suffer CME impacts 10 times more often than exoplanets with inclined orbits and are therefore less likely to retain an atmosphere than exoplanets with inclined orbits.

Knowledge of the coronal magnetic field is crucial for understanding (1) the heating mechanism(s) of the solar corona, (2) the acceleration of the fast solar wind, and (3) the structure and dynamics of coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Observation of Faraday rotation (FR) is one of the best remote-sensing techniques for determining plasma properties in the corona and can provide information on the plasma structure of a CME shortly after launch, shedding light on the initiation process. I used the Karl G. Jansky Very Large Array (VLA) to make sensitive Faraday rotation measurements to investigate the general plasma structure of the corona, properties of coronal plasma inhomogeneities and waves, and transients associated with coronal mass ejections. To enhance my measurements of FR transients, I also developed an algorithm in the Common Astronomy Software Applications (CASA) package to mitigate ionospheric Faraday rotation. In August, 2011, I made FR observations at 5.0 and 6.1 GHz of the radio galaxy 3C 228 through the solar corona at heliocentric distances of 4.6 - 5.0 solar radii using the VLA. Observations at 5.0 GHz permit measurements deeper in the corona than previous VLA observations at 1.4 and 1.7 GHz. These FR observations provided unique information on the magnetic field in this region of the corona. My data on 3C 228 provide two lines of sight (separated by 46 arcseconds, 33,000 km in the corona). I detected three periods during which there appeared to be a difference in the Faraday rotation measure between these two closely spaced lines of sight, which I used to estimate coronal currents; these values (ranging from 2.6 to 4.1 GA) are several orders of magnitude below that which is necessary for significant coronal heating (assuming the Spitzer resistivity). I also used the data to determine upper limits (3.3 and 6.4 rad/m⁻²along the two lines of sight) on FR fluctuations caused by coronal waves. These upper limits are comparable to and, thus, not inconsistent with the theoretical models for Alfvén wave heating of the corona by Hollweg et al. (2010). To support the needs of the low frequency radioastronomical community as well as my own research of coronal FR transients, I developed a new calibration algorithm for CASA that uses GPS-based global ionosphere maps of the Total Electron Content (TEC) to mitigate ionospheric Faraday rotation. The Earth's ionosphere introduces direction- and time-dependent effects over a range of physical and temporal scales and so is a major source for unmodeled phase offsets for low frequency radioastronomical observations. It has become common practice to use global ionospheric models derived from the Global Positioning System (GPS) to provide a means of externally calibrating low frequency data. However, CASA, which was developed to meet the data post-processing needs of next generation telescopes such as the VLA and the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA), did not have the capability to make ionospheric corrections before I implemented this calibration algorithm. I investigated several data centers as potential sources for global ionospheric models and chose the International Global Navigation Satellite System Service data product because data from other sources are generally too sparse to use without additional interpolation schemes. I employed these ionospheric corrections in reducing VLA observations made in August, 2012, at 1 - 2 GHz of a “constellation” of radio sources through the solar corona at heliocentric distances that ranged from 5 - 15 solar radii. Of the nine sources observed, three were occulted by CMEs: 0842+1835, 0900+1832, and 0843+1547. In addition to my radioastronomical observations, which represent one of the first active hunts for CME Faraday rotation since Bird et al. (1985) and the first active hunt using the VLA, I obtained white-light coronagraph images from the LASCO/C3 instrument aboard SOHO to determine the Thomson scattering brightness, BT. BT is proportional to the electron plasma density and provides a means to independently estimate the plasma density and determine its contribution to the observed Faraday rotation. A constant density force-free flux rope embedded in the background corona was used to model the effects of the CMEs on BT and FR. In the case of 0842+1835, the flux rope model underestimated the peak value in BT and did not reproduce the decreasing BT inside the inner cavity region of the CME; however, there was satisfactory agreement between the model and the observed FR. The single flux rope model successfully reproduces both the observed BT and FR profiles for 0900+1832. 0843+1547 was occulted by two CMEs. Therefore, I modeled observations of 0843+1547 using two flux ropes embedded in the background corona. The two flux rope model successfully reproduces both BT and FR profiles for 0843+1547 and, in particular, the two flux rope model successfully replicates the appropriate slope in FR before and after occultation by the second CME and predicts the observed change in sign to FR > 0 at the end of the observing session. I briefly discuss the plasma densities ( 6 - 22 x 10³ cm⁻³) and axial magnetic field strengths (2 - 12 mG) inferred from my models and compare them to the modeling work of Liu et al. (2007) and Jensen et al. (2008), as well as previous CME FR observations by Bird et al. (1985).

Observations by spacecraft such as ACE, STEREO, and others show that there are proton spectral "breaks" with energy E-br at 1-10 MeV in some large CME-driven shocks. Generally, a single shock with the diffusive acceleration mechanism would not predict the "broken" energy spectrum. The present paper focuses on two converging shocks to identify this energy spectral feature. In this case, the converging shocks comprise one forward CME-driven shock on 2006 December 13 and another backward Earth bow shock. We simulate the detailed particle acceleration processes in the region of the converging shocks using the Monte Carlo method. As a result, we not only obtain an extended energy spectrum with an energy "tail" up to a few 10 MeV higher than that in previous single shock model, but also we find an energy spectral "break" occurring on similar to 5.5 MeV. The predicted energy spectral shape is consistent with observations from multiple spacecraft. The spectral "break," then, in this case is caused by the interaction between the CME shock and Earth's bow shock, and otherwise would not be present if Earth were not in the path of the CME.

Regulation of the bacterial second messenger cyclic-di-GMP in Salmonella Typhimurium allows it to delicately alter phenotypes to optimize invasion and survive intracellularly in epithelial cells and macrophages to become virulent and cause infection. The concentration of cyclic-di-GMP is regulated by the presence of external stimuli, sensor CMEs (diguanylate cyclases, DGCs, and phosphodiesterases, PDEs), and cyclic-di-GMP binding effectors. Previous studies established that maintenance of low cyclic-di-GMP concentrations is required for survival in macrophages and that the deletion of 3 active PDEs reduces this survival. This study aimed to further investigate the regulation of cyclic-di-GMP for survival in macrophages and epithelial cells. Salmonella Typhimurium mutants were generated and used for an infection assay with RAW 264.7 macrophage and HeLa epithelial cell lines to determine active CMEs via intracellular survival. Intracellular survival was quantified by plate counting of cell lysates at 1-, 4-, and 24-hours post-infection. Our result showed that the previously identified 3 PDEs also influenced the infection of epithelial cells. We re-established the decreased survival in the RAW 264.7 macrophage cell line and determined that the cyclic-di-GMP-binding cellulose synthase BcsA was responsible for decreased survival in macrophages. Finally, we identified an active DGC whose deletion within the 3xKO PDEs restores survival levels, suggesting that this enzyme is responsible for the synthesis of cyclic-di-GMP during macrophage infection. Further studies on how cyclic-di-GMP regulates Salmonella Typhimurium intracellular survival could lead to identifying a potential alternative drug target for treating its infections.

Yes / In this work, machine learning algorithms are applied to explore the relation between significant flares and their associated CMEs. The NGDC flares catalogue and the SOHO/LASCO CMEs catalogue are processed to associate X and M-class flares with CMEs based on timing information. Automated systems are created to process and associate years of flares and CMEs data, which are later arranged in numerical training vectors and fed to machine learning algorithms to extract the embedded knowledge and provide learning rules that can be used for the automated prediction of CMEs. Different properties are extracted from all the associated (A) and not-associated (NA) flares representing the intensity, flare duration, duration of decline and duration of growth. Cascade Correlation Neural Networks (CCNN) are used in our work. The flare properties are converted to numerical formats that are suitable for CCNN. The CCNN will predict if a certain flare is likely to initiate a CME after input of its properties. Intensive experiments using the Jack-knife techniques are carried out and it is concluded that our system provides an accurate prediction rate of 65.3%. The prediction performance is analysed and recommendation for enhancing the performance are provided.

The coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are phenomena that evidence the complex solar activity. During the CME evolution in the solar wind (SW) the shock and sheath (Sh) are established. With these, the transfer of energy and shock thermalization have origin through several processes like instabilities and particle acceleration. Here, we present two studies related to CMEs. In the first study, we analyze the existence of the KelvinHelmholtz instability (KHI) at the interfaces CMESh and ShSW. For this purpose, we assumed two CMEs that propagate independently in the slow and fast SW. We model velocities, densities and magnetic field strengths of sheaths, and SW in the CMEs flanks, in order to solve the Chandrasekhar condition for the magnetic KHI existence. Our results reveal that KHI formation is more probably in the CME that propagate in the slow SW than in CME propagating in the fast SW. It is due to large shear flow between the CME and the slow SW. Besides we find that the interface ShSW is more susceptible to the instability. In the second study, we examine the distributions of particle acceleration and turbulence regions around CME-driven shocks with wave-like features. We consider these corrugated shock as the result of disturbances from the bimodal SW, CME deflection, irregular CME expansion, and the ubiquitous fluctuations in the solar corona. We model smooth CME-driven shocks using polar Gaussian profiles. With the addition of wave-like functions, we obtain the corrugated shocks. For both shock types are calculated the shock normal angles between the shock normal and the radial upstream coronal magnetic field in order to classify the quasi-parallel and quasi-perpendicular regions linked to the particle acceleration and turbulence regions, respectively. Our calculations show the predisposition of the shock to the particle acceleration and indicate that the irregular CME expansion is the relevant factor in the particle acceleration process. We consider that these wave-like features in shocks may be essential in the study of current problems as injection particle, instabilities, downstream-jets, and shock thermalization. / As ejeções de massa coronal (do inglês coronal mass ejections, CMEs) são consideradas traçadores da atividade solar. Durante a evolução das CMEs no vento solar (do inglês solar wind, SW), o choque e o envoltório (do inglês sheath, Sh) são estabelecidos. Nesta fase, a transferência da energia e a termalização do choque podem ter origem através de vários processos, entre eles instabilidades e aceleração de partculas. Aqui nós apresentamos dois estudos relacionados às CMEs. No primeiro estudo, analisamos a existência da instabilidade KelvinHelmholtz (KHI) nas interfaces CMESh e ShSW. Para isto, supomos duas CMEs que se propagam independentemente no SW lento e rápido. Modelamos as velocidades, densidades e a intensidade do campo magnético dos envoltórios e SW nos flancos das CMEs, a fim de resolver a condição de Chandrasekhar para a existência da KHI magnética. Nossos resultados revelam que a formação da KHI pode ser mais provável na CME que se propaga no SW lento do que na CME que se propaga no SW rápido. Isto é devido a um maior cisalhamento entre a CME e o SW lento. Além disso, encontramos que a interface ShSW é ser mais suscetvel à instabilidade. No segundo estudo, examinamos as distribuições das regiões de aceleração de partculas e turbulência em choques ondulados com caractersticas semelhantes a ondas. Assumimos choques ondulados como resultado de perturbações do SW bimodal, deflexão da CME, expansão irregular da CME, e flutuações onipresentes na coroa solar. Construmos choques sem ondulações usando perfis Gaussianos. Com adição de funções semelhantes a ondas, obtemos os choques ondulados. Para ambos tipos de choques, calculamos os ângulos entre o vector normal ao choque e o campo magnético coronal radial, assim classificamos as regiões como quase-paralelas e quase-perpendiculares que são ligadas às regiões de aceleração de partculas e turbulência, respectivamente. Nossos cálculos mostram a predisposição do choque para o fenômeno de acceleração de partculas, e indicam que a expansão irregular da CME é o fator de maior relevância neste processo. Consideramos que assumir ondulações nos choques pode ser essencial nos estudos de problemas atuais como injeção de partculas, instabilidades, jatos e termalização dos choques.

The coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are phenomena that evidence the complex solar activity. During the CME evolution in the solar wind (SW) the shock and sheath (Sh) are established. With these, the transfer of energy and shock thermalization have origin through several processes like instabilities and particle acceleration. Here, we present two studies related to CMEs. In the first study, we analyze the existence of the KelvinHelmholtz instability (KHI) at the interfaces CMESh and ShSW. For this purpose, we assumed two CMEs that propagate independently in the slow and fast SW. We model velocities, densities and magnetic field strengths of sheaths, and SW in the CMEs flanks, in order to solve the Chandrasekhar condition for the magnetic KHI existence. Our results reveal that KHI formation is more probably in the CME that propagate in the slow SW than in CME propagating in the fast SW. It is due to large shear flow between the CME and the slow SW. Besides we find that the interface ShSW is more susceptible to the instability. In the second study, we examine the distributions of particle acceleration and turbulence regions around CME-driven shocks with wave-like features. We consider these corrugated shock as the result of disturbances from the bimodal SW, CME deflection, irregular CME expansion, and the ubiquitous fluctuations in the solar corona. We model smooth CME-driven shocks using polar Gaussian profiles. With the addition of wave-like functions, we obtain the corrugated shocks. For both shock types are calculated the shock normal angles between the shock normal and the radial upstream coronal magnetic field in order to classify the quasi-parallel and quasi-perpendicular regions linked to the particle acceleration and turbulence regions, respectively. Our calculations show the predisposition of the shock to the particle acceleration and indicate that the irregular CME expansion is the relevant factor in the particle acceleration process. We consider that these wave-like features in shocks may be essential in the study of current problems as injection particle, instabilities, downstream-jets, and shock thermalization. / As ejeções de massa coronal (do inglês coronal mass ejections, CMEs) são consideradas traçadores da atividade solar. Durante a evolução das CMEs no vento solar (do inglês solar wind, SW), o choque e o envoltório (do inglês sheath, Sh) são estabelecidos. Nesta fase, a transferência da energia e a termalização do choque podem ter origem através de vários processos, entre eles instabilidades e aceleração de partculas. Aqui nós apresentamos dois estudos relacionados às CMEs. No primeiro estudo, analisamos a existência da instabilidade KelvinHelmholtz (KHI) nas interfaces CMESh e ShSW. Para isto, supomos duas CMEs que se propagam independentemente no SW lento e rápido. Modelamos as velocidades, densidades e a intensidade do campo magnético dos envoltórios e SW nos flancos das CMEs, a fim de resolver a condição de Chandrasekhar para a existência da KHI magnética. Nossos resultados revelam que a formação da KHI pode ser mais provável na CME que se propaga no SW lento do que na CME que se propaga no SW rápido. Isto é devido a um maior cisalhamento entre a CME e o SW lento. Além disso, encontramos que a interface ShSW é ser mais suscetvel à instabilidade. No segundo estudo, examinamos as distribuições das regiões de aceleração de partculas e turbulência em choques ondulados com caractersticas semelhantes a ondas. Assumimos choques ondulados como resultado de perturbações do SW bimodal, deflexão da CME, expansão irregular da CME, e flutuações onipresentes na coroa solar. Construmos choques sem ondulações usando perfis Gaussianos. Com adição de funções semelhantes a ondas, obtemos os choques ondulados. Para ambos tipos de choques, calculamos os ângulos entre o vector normal ao choque e o campo magnético coronal radial, assim classificamos as regiões como quase-paralelas e quase-perpendiculares que são ligadas às regiões de aceleração de partculas e turbulência, respectivamente. Nossos cálculos mostram a predisposição do choque para o fenômeno de acceleração de partculas, e indicam que a expansão irregular da CME é o fator de maior relevância neste processo. Consideramos que assumir ondulações nos choques pode ser essencial nos estudos de problemas atuais como injeção de partculas, instabilidades, jatos e termalização dos choques.

Machine-learning algorithms are applied to explore the relation between significant flares and their associated CMEs. The NGDC flares catalogue and the SOHO/LASCO CME catalogue are processed to associate X and M-class flares with CMEs based on timing information. Automated systems are created to process and associate years of flare and CME data, which are later arranged in numerical-training vectors and fed to machine-learning algorithms to extract the embedded knowledge and provide learning rules that can be used for the automated prediction of CMEs. Properties representing the intensity, flare duration, and duration of decline and duration of growth are extracted from all the associated (A) and not-associated (NA) flares and converted to a numerical format that is suitable for machine-learning use. The machine-learning algorithms Cascade Correlation Neural Networks (CCNN) and Support Vector Machines (SVM) are used and compared in our work. The machine-learning systems predict, from the input of a flare¿s properties, if the flare is likely to initiate a CME. Intensive experiments using Jack-knife techniques are carried out and the relationships between flare properties and CMEs are investigated using the results. The predictive performance of SVM and CCNN is analysed and recommendations for enhancing the performance are provided. / EPSRC

Recent observations have shown that coronal shocks driven by coronal mass ejections can develop and accelerate particles within several solar radii in large solar energetic particle (SEP) events. Motivated by this, we present an SEP acceleration study that including the process in which a fast shock propagates through a streamer-like magnetic field with both closed and open field lines in the low corona region. The acceleration of protons is modeled by numerically solving the Parker transport equation with spatial diffusion both along and across the magnetic field. We show that particles can be sufficiently accelerated to up to several hundred MeV within 2-3 solar radii. When the shock propagates through a streamer-like magnetic field, particles are more efficiently accelerated compared to the case with a simple radial magnetic field, mainly due to perpendicular shock geometry and the natural trapping effect of closed magnetic fields. Our results suggest that the coronal magnetic field configuration is an important factor for producing large SEP events. We further show that the coronal magnetic field configuration strongly influences the distribution of energetic particles, leading to different locations of source regions along the shock front where most high-energy particles are concentrated. This work may have strong implications for SEP observations. The upcoming Parker Solar Probe will provide in situ observations for the distribution of energetic particles in the coronal shock region, and test the results of the study.

Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) and solar flares are energetic events taking place at the Sun that can affect the space weather or the near-Earth environment by the release of vast quantities of electromagnetic radiation and charged particles. Solar active regions are the areas where most flares and CMEs originate. Studying the associations among sunspot groups, flares, filaments, and CMEs is helpful in understanding the possible cause and effect relationships between these events and features. Forecasting space weather in a timely manner is important for protecting technological systems and human life on earth and in space. The research presented in this thesis introduces novel, fully computerised, machine learning-based decision rules and models that can be used within a system design for automated space weather forecasting. The system design in this work consists of three stages: (1) designing computer tools to find the associations among sunspot groups, flares, filaments, and CMEs (2) applying machine learning algorithms to the associations' datasets and (3) studying the evolution patterns of sunspot groups using time-series methods. Machine learning algorithms are used to provide computerised learning rules and models that enable the system to provide automated prediction of CMEs, flares, and evolution patterns of sunspot groups. These numerical rules are extracted from the characteristics, associations, and time-series analysis of the available historical solar data. The training of machine learning algorithms is based on data sets created by investigating the associations among sunspots, filaments, flares, and CMEs. Evolution patterns of sunspot areas and McIntosh classifications are analysed using a statistical machine learning method, namely the Hidden Markov Model (HMM).