This dissertation consists of three papers, two quantitative and one mixed-methods. Paper 1 uses cross-sectional and logistic regression analyses of survey data to assess Americans' opinion on the use of cost effectiveness research (CER) in government health coverage decisions, and to examine the factors predicting approval or disapproval of specific decisions. I use vignettes drawn from real international decisions to assess opinions. I find that opposition to a CER agency is widespread, with partisan affiliations playing a significant role. In general, Republicans are more likely to oppose a government agency playing a role in cost effectiveness determinations. With regards to specific examples, Americans hold even greater opposition, with no significant differences by political affiliations.

Background Surgery has traditionally been considered more expensive than many other health care interventions and with little impact on the burden of disease in a global perspective. One of the reasons behind this misconception is that the effects of surgical conditions and their treatment have not been factored into the equation. Cost-effectiveness analyses of surgical interventions have largely been missing. An estimated 20 million herniorrhaphies are carried out annually but over 200 million people suffer from groin hernias. Herniorrhaphy is one of the most commonly performed surgical procedures also in Low and Middle Income Countries (LMIC). However, the surgical repair method is not the same due to financial constraints. In high income countries a synthetic mesh is used and has reduced the risk of recurrence. This 125 USD mesh is too costly for the majority in LMIC. Mosquito mesh, which is cheaper but very similar to commercial meshes, is used in several settings but outcomes need to be investigated more extensively before this practice can be recommended in routine surgical service. The Aims of this thesis were to define the prevalence of groin hernia, to relate it to the surgical capacity, outcomes and costs of surgery in eastern Uganda and to investigate the feasibility and difference in cost and cost-effectiveness of replacing a commercial mesh with a mosquito mesh in groin hernia surgery. Methods Three studies (1-3) were carried out in eastern Uganda. 1: A cross sectional study investigating the prevalence of groin hernia in adult males in the Health and Demographic Surveillance Site (HDSS) in Iganga and Mayuge districts. 2: A facility based study with prospective data collection of all surgeries undertaken in the two hospitals providing surgery for the HDSS population. 3: A double blinded, randomised controlled trial comparing the outcomes of using a mosquito mesh relative using a commercial mesh in groin hernia surgery. Results 1: the prevalence of untreated groin hernia among the study participants was 6.6%. 2: the rate of groin hernia surgery was 17 per 100 000 population. Thus, less than 1% of the estimated number of cases of groin hernia in the catchment area of the two hospitals are operated per year. A herniorrhaphy costs around 60 USD to perform. This corresponds to a third of the cost of TB treatment and a 15th of the cost of HIV/AIDS treatment per year in Uganda. 3: No significant differences in terms of recurrence rates, post operative and chronic complications and patient satisfaction were demonstrated between the patients operated using the mosquito mesh and the commercial mesh. Cost-effectiveness was very high for both materials but total cost in the mosquito mesh group was 124 USD lower per surgery than in the commercial mesh group. Conclusion There is a vast unmet need for groin hernia surgery. Cost of surgery compares favourably with other health care interventions prioritised by the international organisations and funders. A superior technique can be used in groin hernia surgery at low cost, with high cost-effectiveness in a Low Income Country.

Texas House Bill 790 resulted in the expansion of the newborn screening panel from 7 to 27 disorders. The long-term economic implications of this expansion have not been studied. The objective of this study was to estimate the incremental cost-effectiveness of the expanded newborn screening program compared to the previous standard screening in Texas. A Markov model (for a hypothetical cohort of Texas births in 2007) was constructed to compare life-time costs and QALYs between the expanded newborn screening and pre-expansion newborn screening. Estimates of costs, probabilities of sequelae, and utilities for disorder categories were obtained from Texas statistics, the literature, and expert opinion. A baseline discount rate of 3% was used for both costs and QALYs, with a range of 0% to 5%. Analyses were conducted from a payer's perspective, so only direct medical cost estimates were included. The life-time incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for expanded versus pre-expansion screening was about $12,000/QALY. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis using key variables showed that results ranged from about $9,500 to $13,000 /QALY. This range is well below the commonly cited willingness to pay threshold of $50,000/QALY. Therefore, expanded newborn screening results in additional expense to the payer but also improves patient outcomes by preventing avoidable morbidity and mortality. The screened population benefits from greater QALYs as compared to the unscreened population. Overall, expanded newborn screening in Texas was estimated to be a cost-effective option as compared to unexpanded newborn screening. / text

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published_or_final_version / Community Medicine / Doctoral / Doctor of Philosophy

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Vitamin K has a negligible effect on bone mineral density (BMD) and a large but uncertain effect on fractures. The three studies in the thesis explored uncertainty about the effect of vitamin K on fractures using the methods of economic evaluation and Bayesian meta-analysis. In study 1, a Markov probabilistic microsimulation model was developed for a hypothetical cohort of 50-year-old postmenopausal women without osteoporosis. This was a fracture incidence-based model, populated with data from the literature. It was used to examine the cost-effectiveness of two supplementation strategies over a lifetime horizon. We compared vitamin K2 (or vitamin K1) concurrent with vitamin D3 and calcium versus vitamin D3 and calcium alone. Study 2 included a systematic review, and classical and Bayesian univariate meta-analyses to determine the efficacies of the K vitamins on BMD or fractures in current and future trials. Study 3 used Bayesian bivariate random-effects meta-analysis to jointly model the treatment effects on two correlated bone outcomes. We compared the estimates from the univariate and bivariate meta-analyses and explored how these results would change the conclusions of the cost-effectiveness analysis. The strategies including vitamin K were highly cost-effective at willingness-to-pay of $50,000/QALY (quality-adjusted life year); however, the results were most sensitive to changes in the efficacy of vitamin K. The univariate meta-analyses showed large uncertainties in the anti-fracture effects of vitamin K2 in current and future trials. The bivariate 95% credible intervals were considerably narrower than those from the univariate meta-analyses. Using future odds ratios from the bivariate meta-analyses, vitamin K2 cost more than $100,000/QALY while vitamin K1 was cost-saving. Our analyses found substantial uncertainty around the estimates of the vitamin K effect on fractures. We recommend against routine use of vitamin K for fracture prevention. Bayesian bivariate meta-analysis accounts for all available information and should be considered when the treatment effects are measured on two correlated outcomes.

Vitamin K has a negligible effect on bone mineral density (BMD) and a large but uncertain effect on fractures. The three studies in the thesis explored uncertainty about the effect of vitamin K on fractures using the methods of economic evaluation and Bayesian meta-analysis. In study 1, a Markov probabilistic microsimulation model was developed for a hypothetical cohort of 50-year-old postmenopausal women without osteoporosis. This was a fracture incidence-based model, populated with data from the literature. It was used to examine the cost-effectiveness of two supplementation strategies over a lifetime horizon. We compared vitamin K2 (or vitamin K1) concurrent with vitamin D3 and calcium versus vitamin D3 and calcium alone. Study 2 included a systematic review, and classical and Bayesian univariate meta-analyses to determine the efficacies of the K vitamins on BMD or fractures in current and future trials. Study 3 used Bayesian bivariate random-effects meta-analysis to jointly model the treatment effects on two correlated bone outcomes. We compared the estimates from the univariate and bivariate meta-analyses and explored how these results would change the conclusions of the cost-effectiveness analysis. The strategies including vitamin K were highly cost-effective at willingness-to-pay of $50,000/QALY (quality-adjusted life year); however, the results were most sensitive to changes in the efficacy of vitamin K. The univariate meta-analyses showed large uncertainties in the anti-fracture effects of vitamin K2 in current and future trials. The bivariate 95% credible intervals were considerably narrower than those from the univariate meta-analyses. Using future odds ratios from the bivariate meta-analyses, vitamin K2 cost more than $100,000/QALY while vitamin K1 was cost-saving. Our analyses found substantial uncertainty around the estimates of the vitamin K effect on fractures. We recommend against routine use of vitamin K for fracture prevention. Bayesian bivariate meta-analysis accounts for all available information and should be considered when the treatment effects are measured on two correlated outcomes.

Objective of the research is to formulate an e-commerce model, aimed at increasing business effectiveness by minimising costs, which is based on the assessment of the impact of e-commerce on business effectiveness.