This diploma thesis examines an investment analysis of pairs of currencies quoted relative to American Dollars, British Pounds and Euros. Oil is introduced into the analysis to be representative of comodities in general. The study presented here is based on Fibonacci's analytic tools. These tools are introduced to the reader from basic concepts including off-market coherences to more advanced topics such as real market situations. The reader is lead through each concept by example and as the reader becomes more familiar and able to handle the basic concepts more difficult scenarios are covered including combinational analysis of the market with accesible instruments on a price axis. From this basis, we focus on market evolution with using abstract approaches and finally time aspects of a price cycling will be presented. The conclusion is followed by a complex example using all the elements previously discussed for an actual set of market data featuring the currency pair EURUSD.

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This dissertation consists of three chapters on development economics. The first two chapters are in the area of international macroeconomics. The third chapter is in an area that is the intersection of macroeconomics and population economics. The first chapter studies currency substitution in an environment where agents' inflation tax evasive demand for foreign money is balanced by the concern for the possibility that the government may impose economy-wide capital controls under which foreign currency transactions are costly. We contrast implications of constant beliefs regarding capital controls with those obtained under endogenous beliefs. With endogenous beliefs, agents expect a greater likelihood of capital controls as economy-wide currency substitution rises. Our results show a persistent demand for foreign money under endogenous beliefs despite efforts by the government to reduce inflation. The second chapter is a theoretical study of currency substitution in an overlapping-generations economy. We focus on the role of beliefs in determining the relative demands for domestic and foreign money. Domestic money suffers from a lack of confidence leading agents to demand foreign money as an alternate store-of-value. We study equilibria in which the level of confidence in domestic money evolves as a function of expected future aggregate domestic money demand: agents increase their demand for domestic money only if aggregate economy-wide real domestic money demand is expected to rise. The third chapter is a study of intertemporal substitution and fertility dynamics. The demographic experience of Iran after the revolution poses an interesting puzzle. A brief increase in period fertility after the 1979 revolution interrupted a trend of decline that had started in the 1950s. The rise in fertility, however, appears to have lasted only a few years: in the late 1980s fertility decline resumed its course at an even faster pace. We present evidence that suggests that the changes in Iranian fertility since the revolution were in part a birth timing phenomenon. The revolution may well have been a transient economic shock which temporarily depressed the relative "price" of children and caused adjustment in fertility patterns which, at least in an ex post sense, is suggestive of intertemporal substitution. / Ph. D.

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Magister Economicae - MEcon / This study analyses the impact of Namibia’s currency peg on its domestic inflation. This is because theoretical argument suggests that currency peg (fixed exchange rate) provides nominal anchor for domestic price level, in particular when the domestic currency is pegged to a stable foreign currency. Following the method of hypothesis testing, data on Namibia and South Africa are used in this regard. Three main findings emerged from this study. Firstly, it was shown that the two inflation rates are positively correlated.Secondly, the study shows that there is no statistical significance difference between the inflation rates of the two countries. This gives an indication that the currency peg served as a nominal anchor, because as the SA inflation rate came down, so did the Namibian inflation rate. Thirdly, the study also shows that the growth of money stock in Namibia does not deviate from the growth of money stock in SA. This gives an indication that the authorities have maintained the peg through control of monetary growth.

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published_or_final_version / Business Administration / Master / Master of Business Administration

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Demonetization is an economic tool used to reduce the size of an underground economy. Though studies on the effectiveness of demonetization have increased over the past 50 years, there is little literature on the ineffectiveness of demonetization and subsequent factors that could explain a lack of change, or an increase, in illegal activity. This paper examines past cases of demonetization to determine the effectiveness of demonetization, and investigates the incentive for foreign currency substitution as a mechanism for criminals to circumvent regulatory scrutiny. Major findings of this paper include a positive but statistically insignificant correlation between demonetization and growth in the shadow economy, and a statistically significant positive relationship between exchange rate appreciation and demonetization. Finally, this paper applies these findings to test the “Modi effect” of Indian Rupee (INR) demonetization.