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股價指數報酬率厚尾程度之研究李佳晏 Unknown Date (has links)
許多觀察到的時間序列資料,多呈現高峰厚尾(leptokurtic)的現象,本文引用時間序列資料為Paretian分配之假設,估計各個國家股價指數報酬率於不同頻率資料下之最大級數動差,以觀察其厚尾程度。實證結果發現,各個國家指數報酬率於不同頻率資料下之四級以上動差大部分存在,且不隨資料之頻率不同,而有不同的表現。由此可推論,各個國家股價指數報酬率之歷史分配,其離群值之活動並不嚴重。接著,利用樣本分割預測檢定(Sample Split Prediction Test)來檢定所觀察各個國家股價指數報酬率於同一樣本期間內,其左右尾之厚尾程度是否一致,及檢定所觀察各個國家指數報酬率於跨期間左尾或右尾之厚尾程度是否穩定。在同一樣本期間,檢定時間序列之左右尾之厚尾程度是否一致之檢定中,發現各個國家指數報酬率在所觀察樣本期間內,其左右尾之厚尾程度大致相同;而在跨期間之樣本分割預測檢定中,發現各個國家指數報酬率在像是1987年10月美國股市大崩盤、1990年至1991年間之波斯灣戰爭、1997年亞洲金融風暴等事件前後,其左(右)尾之厚尾程度有顯著差異。最後提出Cusum of Squares檢定,係用於檢定一時間序列資料在所觀察之樣本期間內,其非條件變異數是否為一常數。
Cusum of Squares檢定之檢定結果顯示,本文之各個國家指數報酬率在所觀察之樣本期間內,其非條件變異數並非為一常數。進一步觀察各個國家指數報酬率之Cusum of Squares圖,並綜合前述跨期間樣本分割預測檢定之結果,可推論在處理較長樣本期間之時間序列資料可能遇到結構性變動之情況時,跨期間之樣本分割預測檢定及Cusum of Squares檢定可提供結構性變動可能發生之時點。
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Three Essays on Estimation and Testing of Nonparametric ModelsMa, Guangyi 2012 August 1900 (has links)
In this dissertation, I focus on the development and application of nonparametric methods in econometrics. First, a constrained nonparametric regression method is developed to estimate a function and its derivatives subject to shape restrictions implied by economic theory. The constrained estimators can be viewed as a set of empirical likelihood-based reweighted local polynomial estimators. They are shown to be weakly consistent and have the same first order asymptotic distribution as the unconstrained estimators. When the shape restrictions are correctly specified, the constrained estimators can achieve a large degree of finite sample bias reduction and thus outperform the unconstrained estimators. The constrained nonparametric regression method is applied on the estimation of daily option pricing function and state-price density function.
Second, a modified Cumulative Sum of Squares (CUSQ) test is proposed to test structural changes in the unconditional volatility in a time-varying coefficient model. The proposed test is based on nonparametric residuals from local linear estimation of the time-varying coefficients. Asymptotic theory is provided to show that the new CUSQ test has standard null distribution and diverges at standard rate under the alternatives. Compared with a test based on least squares residuals, the new test enjoys correct size and good power properties. This is because, by estimating the model nonparametrically, one can circumvent the size distortion from potential structural changes in the mean. Empirical results from both simulation experiments and real data applications are presented to demonstrate the test's size and power properties.
Third, an empirical study of testing the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) hypothesis is conducted in a functional-coefficient cointegration model, which is consistent with equilibrium models of exchange rate determination with the presence of trans- actions costs in international trade. Supporting evidence of PPP is found in the recent float exchange rate era. The cointegration relation of nominal exchange rate and price levels varies conditioning on the real exchange rate volatility. The cointegration coefficients are more stable and numerically near the value implied by PPP theory when the real exchange rate volatility is relatively lower.
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