Thesis advisor: Peter Ireland / My doctoral research focuses, first, on the effect of central bank transparency on people's expectation formation and, second, on the relationship between financial frictions and the macroeconomy. In Chapter 1, I study how the central bank transparency affects disagreement in inflation expectations. In Chapter 2, I investigate the optimal degree of transparency about inflation target for a central bank. In Chapter 3, I examine the impact of financial factors on the growth of total factor productivity. Chapter 1: In this analysis I measures the transparency of the Federal Reserve Board (FRB) regarding its target inflation rate before its adoption of inflation targeting using data on the disagreement in inflation expectations among U.S. consumers. We construct a model of inflation forecasters employing the frameworks of both an unobserved components model and a noisy information model. We estimate the model and extract the transparency of the FRB regarding the target as the standard deviation of the heterogeneous noise in the inflation trend signal, where the trend proxies the FRB's inflation target. The results show a great improvement in transparency after the mid-1990s as well as its significant contribution to the decline in the disagreement in long-horizon inflation expectations. Chapter 2: We examined the optimal degree of transparency for a central bank about its inflation target. We construct a new Keynesian model with dispersed information in which policy rate signals information about underlying shocks. We have shown that a transparent inflation target is not always optimal in the presence of the signaling effects of the policy rate. In addition, it is shown that the optimal degree of transparency depends on the relative size and the persistence of the underlying shocks. Chapter 3: After the global financial crisis, slowdowns of total factor productivity (TFP), often measured as the Solow residual, have been observed across major countries. This study offers an explanation for this by focusing on Japan’s financial crises during the 1990s. We first incorporate credit constraints, for financial intermediaries (FIs) and firms, and input–output structure into the standard New Keynesian model, and show that the model delivers multiple channels through which damaged balance sheets reduce measured TFP. We then estimate the model using Japanese data, and show that adverse shocks to FIs’ balance sheets played a substantial role in lowering measured TFP. / Thesis (PhD) — Boston College, 2022. / Submitted to: Boston College. Graduate School of Arts and Sciences. / Discipline: Economics.

This thesis is a empirical test of the constancy of the real rate of interest in Germany over the period of 1970 to 2000. The methodology, based on Mishkin (1981), employs Ordinary Least Squares regressions to search for correlation in movements of real rates with lagged inflation, time trends, and ten other variables that commonly appear in the literature. Overall results reject the hypothesis of the constancy of the real rate. The Fisher Effect (Fisher, 1930), that movements in nominal interest rates reflect changes in expected inflation, is found to be only moderate for Germany. The monetary policy implication is that nominal interest rates contain little information about real interest rates and therefore on the tightness of monetary policy. Overall lack of significance in the test results may (as Mishkin found) be because there is so little variation in real rate movements. / Master of Arts

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The paper investigates the role of central bank communication for monetary policy implementation. Firstly, we use a multi-disciplinary approach to disentangle several problematic contingencies of central bank communication, analyzing from this perspective the role of complex phenomena such as public opinion, perceptions, beliefs, framing, subjective probability, rhetoric, persuasion, cognitive limits and distortions, psychological and cultural biases etc. The result is a comprehensive survey of theory and practice in central bank communication, from the perspective of political science, social-psychology and media studies. Secondly, we attempt to draw on more psychological realism to central bank communication in the context of financial crises, using a parallel with risk management in the case of natural disasters. Thirdly, we conceive central bank information as a public good, thereby we construct a novel schematic model of supply and demand based on two respective behavioral logistic functions, in order to derive central bank informational equilibrium.

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This dissertation offers two perspectives on the making of monetary policy under uncertainty. The first two chapters examine the consequences of uncertainty for the macroeconomic function of the central bank - the stabilisation of macroeconomic variables of interest around socially desirable targets. The third chapter examines the consequences of uncertainty for the central bank's microeconomic function - the public supply of liquidity. The first chapter asks whether society benefits from the delegation of monetary policy to cautious and conservative central bankers. We offer a critical view on the delegation literature and relax seemingly innocuous assumptions about uncertainty and preferences. First, caution improves credibility but does not obviate the need for central-bank conservatism. Second, previous models of delegation have focused on suboptimal forms of conservatism. We derive optimal concepts of conservatism that mitigate, or eliminate, any residual problem of credibility. Third, we rationalize why credible monetary policy may be conducive to stable inflation and output. The second chapter examines the implications of instrument uncertainty for optimal monetary policy following the introduction of non-quadratic preferences. We investigate both symmetric and asymmetric preferences and discuss the consequences for caution, gradualism and the optimal delegation of monetary policy. The third chapter examines the microeconomic role of the central bank. We develop a rationale for the provision of public liquidity based on an incomplete contracting framework. The model illustrates to what extent wealth-constrained entrepreneurs are leveraged by collateralized debt contracts and examines the consequences of costly collateral liquidation and aggregate asset price uncertainty for the provision of external finance.

This thesis examines a number of issues related to central bank international reserves holdings and foreign exchange intervention. We study the long run determinants of reserves within the context of the post Bretton Woods dirty float period. It is argued that traditional approaches fail to take account of central bank attempts to influence the real exchange rate by foreign exchange intervention. Additionally, we update previous research by employing recent developments in the non-stationary timeseries and panel data literature. In particular, we utilise the Johansen VAR technology and recent innovations in panel cointegration, to assess the long-run determinants of reserves and short-run dynamics. By jointly modelling the UK reserve holdings and the monetary sector we consider the domestic economy impact of reserve changes, the stability of narrow money demand and whether monetary disequilibria effect reserves as suggested by the Monetary Approach to the Balance of Payments. The effects of daily US and German foreign exchange intervention on exchange rate volatility are also studied. We find evidence consistent with other research that US intervention reduces volatility and extend these results to bilateral rates not previously considered. Moreover, we find evidence in favour of the distinction between unilateral and concerted intervention and of the existence of policy externalities, underlining the importance of international policy coordination.

This thesis examines banking regulation in Nigeria. The thesis has three main objectives; First, to elucidate the role and powers of the Central Bank of Nigeria, (CBN) as the apex regulator for the financial system and within the context of banking failures and crises. Second, to engage in a discourse vis-à-vis the law on banking regulation in Nigeria, with a particular focus on the revocation of banking licenses. Finally, to explore the role of other regulatory bodies which work with the CBN. This thesis provides a historical analysis of banking exchanges from the pre-colonial era to modern times, in order to provide an understanding of how political, local and economic settings as well as theories of regulation have impacted and influenced the development of banking regulation in Nigeria. The thesis concludes that the development of banking regulation has been a consequence of the aforementioned factors. The research examines Nigeria's historical experiences with banking failures, including the banking crisis of 2008. The thesis finds that the Nigerian regulator has adopted a reactionary strategy instead of a proactive and pragmatic approach to the various crises, which is imperative for an effective banking regulatory regime. Given the outcome of this examination, the thesis makes a case for reform. In addition, the study examines the banking consolidation, a recapitalization exercise implemented by the CBN in 2004. This mandated all banks to achieve a set minimum capital base. It examines the legal issues which surfaced, including the revocation of banking licenses by the CBN, arguably in 'bad faith', in order to cogitate the overall potential impact on banking regulation. The research embraces the UK and the US as comparator jurisdictions, so as to distill and critique their responses to the global financial crisis of 2007, against the backdrop of the approach adopted in the Nigerian banking crisis of 2008. It finds that the Nigerian response was the least effective of these jurisdictions and that cogent lessons may be drawn from the comparator jurisdictions. Furthermore, the thesis discusses possible reforms to move forward banking regulation in Nigeria.

La thèse comporte deux parties. Dans la première partie (Chapitres 1 et 2), un examen des déterminants des interventions officielles sur le marché des changes est proposée. Dans la second partie (Chapitres 3 et 4), c'est la problématique des interventions dites « secrètes » qui est étudiée. Chapitre 1: « Talks, financial operations or both » Ce chapitre propose une nouvelle approche aux fonctions de réaction permettant d’examiner, dans un même modèle, les déterminants des différents types d’interventions (les interventions effectives et les interventions orales). Le modèle permet de mieux comprendre les choix stratégiques des autorités (opérations financières ou simple politique de communication) et d’en évaluer le degré de substituabilité ou de complémentarité. Chapitre 2 : « The institutional organization underlying interventions » La structure institutionnelle sous-jacente au processus d’intervention (interactions entre le Ministère des finances et la banque centrale) est explicitement incorporée dans le modèle proposé dans ce chapitre. Cette approche permet d’évaluer, dans quelle mesure, le Ministère des finances (l’autorité responsable de la politique de change), en intervenant sur le marché, internalise les objectifs de la banque centrale(l’agent du Ministère pour l’implémentation des ordres d’intervention). Chapitre 3 : « The secrecy puzzle » Ce chapitre propose une évaluation empirique des différents arguments théoriques expliquant le recours aux interventions secrètes. Le travail repose sur l’examen économétrique d’une fonction de stratégie, dans laquelle, des déterminants relatifs à la décision d’intervenir secrètement d’une part et, d’autre part, des déterminants relatifs à la détection des interventions par le marché sont incorporés. Chapitre 4 : « A unified approach to interventions » Un modèle unique, permettant d’expliquer les trois étapes du processus d’intervention, est proposé dans ce chapitre. Ces trois étapes sont relatives (i) au choix d’intervenir, (ii) au choix d’intervenir de façon secrète et (iii) à la perception des interventions par le marché. Grâce à l’inclusion de déterminants spécifiques pour ces différentes étapes, cette approche multidimensionnelle permet d’appréhender leurs interrelations et, donc, de mieux comprendre les différents arbitrages réalisés par les autorités lorsqu’elles décident d’intervenir.