Šiame darbe nagrinėjamos Irako federacijos stabilumo perspektyvos. Irako federacijos stabilumo analizė atliekama konkuruojančių hipotezių metodu. Darbe prognozuojama kiek ir kokie federaciniai vienetai sudarys būsimąją federaciją. Pateikiama galių paskirstymo mechanizmo, gyventojų abipusės simpatijos, federacinių regionų santykinės galios, regionų išteklių bei materialinės gerovės paskirstymo mechanizmo analizė. Pagal Irako federacijos atitikimą nustatytiems kriterijams, daroma išvada dėl jos stabilumo perspektyvų. / The question of Iraq has been analyzed since the very beginning of the Gulf War I. After the terrorist attacks on the 11 September, 2001, when USA declared war against the international terrorism, the question of Iraq again became one of the main discussions objects in the international discourse. Noteworthy is the State of the Union Address, delivered by the President of the USA G.W. Bush on the 29 January, 2002, where this country is labeled as the “axis of evil”, and removal of its leader S. Hussain’s regime is promoted at the international level. Importance of this research is illustrated by the still unsolved dilemma of Iraq’s future. The 23 May, 2003 coalition, commanded by the USA, invaded Iraq and removed the authoritarian regime that was ruling the country. However, by removal of the S. Hussain’s regime, the coalition also ruined the structure, that was maintaining the state of Iraq as a unit. Iraq found itself at the threshold of disintegration that is why the stabilization of Iraq as soon as possible is important to the neighbor countries, USA and the international community. 15 October, 2005, the new constitution of Iraq was passed in a public referendum. In one of the first articles of the constitution it is stated, that Iraq will become a federal state. Building of the federal state that began after the pass of the new constitution has been in process up to today, and can take years. That is why, one of the main aims of this Master Thesis is to define, what... [to full text]