The subantarctic Prince Edward Islands (PEIs, 47◦S-38◦E) are classified as isolated and hostile regions, in which the terrestrial and marine ecosystems are relatively simple and extremely sensitive to perturbations. The island’s location, between the Subantarctic Front (SAF) and the Polar Front (PF), bordering the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) provides an ideal natural laboratory for studying how organisms, ecological processes and ecosystems respond to a changing climate in the Southern Ocean. Recent studies have proposed that climate changes reported at the islands may correspond in time to a southward shift of the ACC and in particular of the SAF. This southward migration in the geographic position of major ocean fronts is likely to coincide with dramatic changes in the distribution of species and total productivity of this region. However, there are other sources of variability in the hydrodynamic conditions around the PEIs: upstream of the islands, at the South West Indian Ridge (SWIR), a region of high eddy kinetic activity produces mesoscale features that directly irrigate the PEIs and may impact their marine environment. Based on satellite altimetry in that region, the positions of the SAF and PF were found to be highly variable at interannual and monthly time scales. They also revealed a significant long-term southward trend which was highlighted at the Southern Ocean scale. The mesoscale activity also showed an interannual and intra-annual variability and a decrease in eddy kinetic energy over 24 years was observed in the region. At a more local scale, we highlighted that the archipelago’s environment was impacted by the mesoscale features produced at the SWIR. The temperature, the mixed layer and velocities recorded between the islands were clearly affected by the eddies passing in the vicinity of the PEIs. Moreover, a large signal dominating the main current time series appeared to be a tidal signal, another important driver of variability of the circulation in between the two islands. On a second hand, an idealised model configuration was designed for the PEIs region to study the mesoscale eddy properties and the physical mechanisms of their formation at the ridge. The Eddy Available Potential Energy revealed a maximum of energy around 800 m depth, confirming the deep reaching characteristic of the eddy originated in the region and suggested the presence of a local energy source at this depth. This eddies activity was shown to be the result of a combination of barotropic and baroclinic instabilities occurring at the ridge. Finally, we investigated on the potential consequences of a southward shift of the SAF in the region of the islands. Because the model was idealised, it allowed us to simulate an SAF southward shift by shifting the initial and boundary conditions. The main result was the clear decrease of mesoscale activity in the region which could potentially impact the ecosystems of the PEIs.

Developing countries have been rapidly urbanising over the last decades, resulting in major environmental pressures and increased vulnerability to natural disasters. A complex combination of factors, including climate change, land use change, poorly implemented regulation and a lack of integrated planning has often resulted in environmental degradation and disproportionate impacts of natural disasters affecting millions worldwide, particularly in tropical cities. The main aim of this study is to understand the effects of land-use and climate change on flooding in the Greater Port-Harcourt watershed. The specific research objectives were: to understand the historical and future land use /land cover changes; to understand the magnitude of change in hydrologic and hydraulic conditions due to land-use and climate changes; to assess the influence of different forest mitigation scenarios on peak-discharge; and to make recommendations on how to improve future planning using insights from this study. Methodologically, the post-classification change detection method was applied to examine the extent and nature of historical LULC changes using remotely sensed data. Future LULC changes were estimated by superimposing the 2060 digitised Masterplan map on the year 2003 baseline imagery. Hydrologic changes were assessed using HEC-HMS model, while changes in the hydraulic condition were assessed using HEC-RAS model. Model output was further used to map flood hazards, flood zones and damage potential. Priority areas and infrastructure at risk were identified by means of their location in flood zones and exposure to floods with high damage potential. On the extent of change, this study revealed that urbanisation and loss of agricultural land had been the dominant and intensive land use change in the watershed. Urbanisation is projected to almost double its 2003 extent by 2060 and is likely to remain the dominant force of land use change. On the nature of change, this study found that urban land was the most dynamic in terms of gross gain and net change. It exhibited the grossest gain (about 9% of the watershed) and the grossest loss leading to a high net change of about 8.6%. In fact, the most prominent transition was the conversion of agricultural land (about 422km2) to urban land, and roughly 93.3% of all conversions to urban land resulted from agricultural land. On the process of change, urban land mainly experienced a net-type of change (change in quantity), whereas changes in agricultural land was more of a swap-type of change (change in location). Importantly, the study reveals that the impact on flood flow was historically significant (about 68%) and is projected to amplify in future, however, these changes are largely attributed to increased storm size. Urbanisation is likely to have little or no impact on annual maximum peak flow at the watershed scale; however, urbanisation is projected to have a considerable impact on peak flow in a number of subbasins, which could have severe implications for flash flooding in those subbasins. Similarly, afforestation could have little or no impact on future maximum peak flow when assessed at the watershed scale. Although some subbasins experienced changes in peak flow, the effect of forest is variable. The study concludes that although the impact of urbanisation is projected to be insignificant at the watershed scale, it could also increase flood risk due to increasing developments in floodplains and channel encroachment. Priority infrastructure and areas requiring urgent flood risk management include the Port-Harcourt seaports, Onne seaport, the University of Science and Technology and cement factory. Priority areas in the Masterplan are mainly in the south (Phase 3), comprising of the Air force base and the residential area near Onne seaport. Lastly, approximately 8.1km and 189m of road and rail network are at greater risk of flooding by means of their exposure to floods with the highest damage potential. Based on this study, I have furthered understanding by showing that the transition to urban land category was dominated by net changes (i.e. changes in quantity). I have also furthered understanding by showing that substantial changes in future urban land-use may not have significant effect on flood parameters. My main contribution to knowledge is that despite the high rate of urbanisation in the GPH watershed and its minimal impact on flooding (which could be due the large size of the storm and watershed), urbanisation could still increase flood risk due to greater exposure of elements at risk in the flood plains to damaging floods. Based on the results, the study recommends that the development authorities should integrate both structural measures (mainly for flood defence around existing developments) and non-structural measures (primarily for future developments). For flood risk management research, this study recommends that conclusions about the effects of urbanisation should not be made solely on the basis of changes in hydrology and river hydraulics, however researchers should also consider the exposure of important elements at risk within the floodplains under study to better understand the effects of urbanisation. Moreover, to better understand urbanisation effects on runoff dynamics in other watersheds, this study recommends that research efforts should be concerted in understanding subbasin-scale changes given that the effects of urbanisation are more pronounced in smaller basins.

A software system is represented by different software artefacts ranging from requirements specifications to source code. As the system evolves, artefacts are often modified at different rates and times resulting in inconsistencies, which in turn can hinder effective communication between stakeholders, and the understanding and maintenance of systems. The problem of the differential evolution of heterogeneous software artefacts has not been sufficiently addressed to date as current solutions focus on specific sets of artefacts and aspects of consistency management and are not fully automated. This thesis presents the concept of holistic artefact consistency management and a proof-of-concept framework, ACM, which aim to support the consistent evolution of heterogeneous software artefacts while minimising the impact on user choices and practices and maximising automation. The ACM framework incorporates traceability, change impact analysis, change detection, consistency checking and change propagation mechanisms and is designed to be extensible. The thesis describes the design, implementation and evaluation of the framework, and an approach to automate trace link creation using machine learning techniques. The framework evaluation uses six open source systems and suggests that managing the consistency of heterogeneous artefacts may be feasible in practical scenarios.

The knowledge of flow hydrodynamics within the next decades is of particular importance in many practical applications. In this study, a methodological improvement has been made to the evaluation of the flow hydrodynamics under climate change. This research, indeed, proposes an approach which includes the methods that can consider the climate change impact on the flow in estuaries, gulfs, etc. It includes downscaling methods to project the required climate variables through the next decades. Here, two statistical downscaling methods, namely, Nearest Neighbouring and Quantile-Quantile techniques, are developed and implemented in order to predict the wind speed over the study area. Wind speed has an essential role in flow field and wave climatology in estuaries and gulfs. In order to make the proposed methodology computationally efficient, the flow in the estuary is simulated by a large-scale model. The finite volume triangular C-grid is analysed and shown to have advantages over the rectangular (finite difference) one. The dispersion relation analysis is performed for both gravity and Rossby waves that have crucial effects in oceanic models. In order to study the unstructured characteristic of the triangular grids, various isosceles triangles with different vertex angles are considered. Moreover, diverse well-known second-order time stepping techniques such as Leap-Frog, Adams-Bashforth and improved Euler are studied in combination with the C-grid semi discrete method. The fully discrete method is examined through several numerical experiments for both linear and non-linear cases. The results of the large-scale model provide the boundary conditions to the local coastal model. In order to model the flow over a local coastal area, a well-balanced positivity preserving central-upwind method is developed for the unstructured quadrilateral grids. The quadrilateral grid can effectively simulate complex domains and is shown to have advantages over the triangular grids. The proposed central-upwind scheme is well-balanced and preserve the positivity. Therefore, it is capable of modelling the wetting and drying processes that may be the case in many local coastal areas. It is also confirmed that the proposed method can well resolve complex flow features. The local model incorporates the outputs of the downscaling and large-scale flow models and evaluates the flow hydrodynamics under changing climate.

This thesis presents the \emph{Boundary Diagram Tool}, a tool for change impact analysis of large Simulink designs of embedded systems. The Boundary Diagram Tool extends the Reach/Coreach Tool, an existing tool for model slicing within a single Simulink model, to trace the impact of model changes through multiple Simulink models and to network interfaces of an automotive controller. While the change impact analysis results can be viewed directly within the Simulink models, the tool also uses various block diagrams to represent the impact analysis results with different levels of abstraction, motivated by industrial needs. In order to effectively present the complex impact analysis results, various techniques for visual representation of large graphs are employed. Furthermore, the Reach/Coreach Tool as an underlying model slicing engine was significantly improved. The Boundary Diagram Tool is currently being integrated into the software development process of a large automotive OEM (Original Equipment Manufacturer). It provides support during several phases of the change management process: change request analysis and evaluation, as well as the implementation, verification and integration of software changes. The tool also aids impact analyses required for compliance with functional safety standards such as ISO 26262. / Thesis / Master of Applied Science (MASc)

Three of the most widely studied software dependency types are the structural, logical and semantic dependencies. Logical dependencies capture the degree of co-change between software artifacts. Semantic dependencies capture the degree to which artifacts, comments and names are related. Structural dependencies capture the dependencies in the source code of artifacts. Prior studies show that a combination of dependency analysis (e.g., semantic and logical analysis) improves accuracy when predicting which artifacts are likely to be impacted by ripple effects of software changes (though not to a large extent) compared to individual approaches. In addition, some dependencies could be hidden dependencies when an analysis of one dependency type (e.g., logical) does not reveal artifacts only linked by another dependency type (semantic). While previous studies have focused on combining dependency information with minimal benefits, this Thesis explores the consistency of these measurements, and whether hidden dependencies arise between artifacts, and in any of the axes studied. In this Thesis, 79 Java projects are empirically studied to investigate (i) the direct influence and the degree of overlap between dependency types on three axes (logical - structural (LSt); logical - semantic (LSe); structural - semantic (StSe)) (structural, logical and semantic), and (ii) the presence of hidden coupling on the axes. The results show that a high proportion of hidden dependencies can be detected on the LSt and StSe axes. Notwithstanding, the LSe axis shows a much smaller proportion of hidden dependencies. Practicable refactoring methods to mitigate hidden dependencies are proposed in the Thesis and discussed with examples.

<p>Today’s information systems engineering involves large number of stakeholders, wide geographical distribution and wide range of tools. Success in system engi-neering depends on effective human communication. Early understanding and modelling of the problem domain is a key to manage large scale systems and pro-jects. This requires stakeholders to reach a certain level of shared interpretation of the domain referred throughout the development</p><p>We propose a method for semantics driven change impact assessment. In our method, first a collaborative problem analysis is conducted. The problem analysis results in an agreed and committed common understanding of the prob-lem domain, expressed in a conceptual domain model. The constructed concep-tual domain-specific model is then actively used as a communication medium, e.g., to abstract development objects from representation format in order to expli-cate their semantics. Stakeholders browse the domain model and interactively as-sociate to product fragments by selecting concept clusters that best describe the contents (intended meaning) of the product fragments.</p><p>Associations of the development objects with concepts from domain model, as well as the domain model itself constitute the basis for change impact assess-ment throughout the development. Every revision of a development object in-vokes change impact notifications that are either confirmed or rejected. Accumu-lated statistics are used to refine associations via the domain model to the direct dependency links among development objects.</p><p>The method has been implemented in a prototype system CO2SY and has been evaluated in an experiment, where a set of test users has been provided with a problem domain description including a domain model and a set of develop-ment objects. The experiment was based on two real world cases. Users were asked to perform tasks using the prototype and two comparative tools. The method and prototype have been evaluated with respect to actual performance and users perceptions. The result shows actual effectiveness, perceived ease of use and usefulness comparing to other tools used in the experiment, as well as intention of the subjects to use the method in future.</p><p>A discussion of future research directions and possible revisions of the method concludes the thesis.</p>

Les logiciels évoluent au fil du temps avec la modification, l'ajout et la suppression de nouvelles classes, méthodes, fonctions, dépendances. Une conséquence est que le comportement peut être placé dans de mauvais paquetages et casser la modularité du logiciel. Une bonne organisation des classes dans des paquetages identifiables facilite la compréhension, la maintenance, les tests et l'évolution des logiciels. Nous soutenons que les responsables manquent d'outils pour assurer la remodularisation logicielle. La maintenance des logiciels nécessite des approches qui aident à (i) la compréhension de la structure au niveau du paquetage et l'évaluation de sa qualité; (ii) l'identification des problèmes de modularité, et (iii) la prise de décisions pour le changement. Dans cette thèse nous proposons ECOO, une approche qui aide la remodularisation. Elle concerne les trois domaines de recherche suivants: (i) Comprendre les problèmes de dépendance entre paquetages. Nous proposons des visualisations mettant en évidence les dépendances cycliques au niveau des paquetages; (ii) Proposer des dépendances qui devraient être changées. L'approche propose des dépendances à changer pour rendre le système plus modulaire; (iii) Analyser l'impact des changements. L'approche propose une analyse d'impact du changement pour essayer les modifications avant de les appliquer sur le système réel. L'approche présentée dans cette thèse a été validée qualitativement et les résultats ont été pris en compte dans la réingénierie des systèmes analysés. Les résultats obtenus démontrent l'utilité de notre approche.

Today’s information systems engineering involves large number of stakeholders, wide geographical distribution and wide range of tools. Success in system engi-neering depends on effective human communication. Early understanding and modelling of the problem domain is a key to manage large scale systems and pro-jects. This requires stakeholders to reach a certain level of shared interpretation of the domain referred throughout the development We propose a method for semantics driven change impact assessment. In our method, first a collaborative problem analysis is conducted. The problem analysis results in an agreed and committed common understanding of the prob-lem domain, expressed in a conceptual domain model. The constructed concep-tual domain-specific model is then actively used as a communication medium, e.g., to abstract development objects from representation format in order to expli-cate their semantics. Stakeholders browse the domain model and interactively as-sociate to product fragments by selecting concept clusters that best describe the contents (intended meaning) of the product fragments. Associations of the development objects with concepts from domain model, as well as the domain model itself constitute the basis for change impact assess-ment throughout the development. Every revision of a development object in-vokes change impact notifications that are either confirmed or rejected. Accumu-lated statistics are used to refine associations via the domain model to the direct dependency links among development objects. The method has been implemented in a prototype system CO2SY and has been evaluated in an experiment, where a set of test users has been provided with a problem domain description including a domain model and a set of develop-ment objects. The experiment was based on two real world cases. Users were asked to perform tasks using the prototype and two comparative tools. The method and prototype have been evaluated with respect to actual performance and users perceptions. The result shows actual effectiveness, perceived ease of use and usefulness comparing to other tools used in the experiment, as well as intention of the subjects to use the method in future. A discussion of future research directions and possible revisions of the method concludes the thesis.

Understanding the impact of changes made daily by development teams working on large-scale software products is a challenge faced by many organizations nowadays. Development efficiency can be severely affected by the increase in fragility that can creep in as products evolve and become more complex. Processes, such as gated check-in mechanisms, can be put in place to detect problematic changes before submission, but are usually limited in effectiveness due to their reliance on statically-defined sets of tests. Traditional change-impact analysis techniques can be combined with information gathered at run-time in order to create a system that can select tests for change verification. This report provides the high-level architecture of a system, named Ratchet, that combines static analysis of C++ programs, enabled by the reuse of the Clang compiler frontend, and code-coverage information gathered from automated test runs, in order to automatically select and schedule tests that exercise functions and methods possibly affected by the change. Prototype implementations of the static-analysis components of the system are provided, along with a basic evaluation of their capabilities through synthetic examples. / text