Background: To keep up with competitors and the ever-changing business environment, organizations constantly adapt and adjust their strategies. Strategic organizational change is the implementation of change to increase corporate performance and find new competitive advantages. Studies are showing how the majority of change processes fail. This high failure rate is dependent on several different factors. However, one factor which seems to be one of the most common is resistance to strategic organizational change. Resistance is often looked through a negative lens by the management, which can negatively affect the whole change process. Purpose: The primary purpose of this study is to increase the knowledge about resistance to strategic organizational change and explore the field of change management to yield valuable insights to managers' quest to implement change successfully. Research Question: How can understanding the source of resistance be used beneficially by management to improve the managerial decision-making and, therefore, increase the success rate of change implementation? Methodology: A qualitative research method with semi-structured interviews has been adopted. Conclusion: If resistance is not only seen as an obstacle but instead analysed thoroughly by the management it could contribute to an organizational discussion which potentially could improve the quality of the management decision-making and, thus, improve the success rate of strategic organizational change implementation.v

First Essay: We exploit temporally disaggregated data on weather anomalies andtemporary migration to examine the effect of the former on the latter, and the ef-fectiveness of migration as a coping mechanism to maintain consumption in the faceof adverse weather conditions. We construct a continuous measure of migration thatincreases both with the number of people leaving, and with the length of time theystay away. Our results show that, while weather anomalies do trigger temporary mi-gration, they only do so when they occur before or rather early in the growing season.This suggests that households have a limited ability to respond to unexpected shockswhen they occur late in the season. We also find that weather anomalies can affectmigration patterns several months after they take place and discuss possible mecha-nisms. We find that, conditional on these temporal patterns, households lacking onlabor force endowment and social networks are particularly limited in their abilityto use migration as a coping mechanism and remain, consequently, more vulnerableto shocks. Our analysis reveals how temporal aggregation of weather shocks, widelyimplemented in previous studies, can obscure substantial heterogeneity in migrationresponse, as well as their ability to mitigate adverse impacts.<br><div><br></div><div>Second Essay: The study uses the same framework as the first essay. It uses tem-porally disaggregated data on weather anomalies and temporary migration. However,this study expands the first essay by considering agricultural labor use. Our resultsshow that agricultural labor hiring will not increase, although there is an increasein temporary labor migration by abnormal weather driving the previous agriculturalseason. This suggests that households adjust their agriculture plan with temporary labor migration consideration. When a drought happens in the current agriculturalseason, our result shows that irrigation has mediation effects on hired agricultural la-bor. Our analysis reveals how temporally disaggregated analysis yields more detailedresults for market outcomes.<br></div><div><br></div><div>Third Essay: Sea-level rise induced migration studies usually investigate inter-county or inter-regional migration. However, sea level rise does not affect a countyuniformly. Instead, it affects only specific areas with different socio-economic sta-tus. The objective of this study is to provide information on socio-economic geog-raphy change associated with sea-level rise. We simulate the spatial redistributionof households in the United States coastal areas affected by the expected sea-levelrise. Towards that end, we use a spatial microsimulation. The spatial microsimula-tion proceeds in two steps. In the first step, a synthetic population is generated foreach spatial unit. In the second step, the synthetic population is redistributed as aresponse to sea-level rise. Our results show that, most of the households that migratedue to the sea-level rise, will migrate within the same or to a neighboring census tractareas<br></div>

Sparse information about the wind climate of South Africa behooves an exploration of the drivers of surface wind speed, especially in the context of wind resource assessment. This work quantifies the coupling between the synoptic circulation states and station-scale flows to develop a process-based regionalisation of wind regimes over the country .A thorough inspection of available South African Weather Service (SAWS) wind records is conducted and a quality control procedure is applied. The procedure reveals a large proportion of the data are missing and existing data contain numerous errors such that only107 of the original 960 stations passed the quality control criteria. However, data from these107 stations only overlap temporally 2% of the time, which makes the data inappropriate fora regionalisation procedure. To ameliorate this, a method for incorporating bias-corrected time series data from a reanalysis data set is developed. Data from the 0.3◦ resolution hourly Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) be-tween 1989-2010 is selected to improve the temporal coverage of the station data. The raw CFSR data overestimates wind speeds and underestimates the temporal variability and long-term trends. A bias correction method based on the wind speed and direction, time of day and month of the year is developed which successfully removes the mean error on wind speed and direction and improves the correlation with station records. This is achieved without disrupting spatial correlation patterns. Corrected and extended wind time series from each station site are used for the regionalisation. The regionalisation uses a self-organising map (SOM) to define the archetypal synoptic circulation patterns in the reanalysis data set and the influence of these on the local wind climate is quantified. 12 representative atmospheric states are defined by the SOM that are consistent with the existing literature and capture the major synoptic circulation states. A hierarchical clustering is then used to define wind climate regions based on the coupling between these circulation states and the extended station data. Six relatively cohesive spatial wind-climate groupings are identified that are physically consistent with the driving synoptic environment and are characteristic in terms of terrain and response to synoptic drivers. This process-based regionalisation facilitates a future assessment of potential changes in the wind climate of South Africa as a result of a warming world.

Includes bibliographical references / The main aim of this thesis is to investigate the potential benefits of increasing resolution in regional climate models in the simulation of climate variability and change over East Africa. This study is based on two high resolution regional climate simulations with a horizontal resolution of 50km and 10km, respectively. These represent present day climate and a projection of future climate change over East Africa. The regional climate model (RCM) used here is HIRHAM5, which is driven by the global circulation model (ECHAM5). Downscaled ECHAM5 output is used to drive the 50km HIRHAM5 simulation for the period 1950-2100, and output from this simulation is used to drive the 10km simulation for three time slices: 1980-1999, representative for present-day climate and two time slices for near future (2046-2065) and far future (2080- 2099), respectively. HIRHAM5 is evaluated with respect to the observed mean climatologies of rainfall, surface temperature and surface winds over East Africa, and representations of the observed annual cycles and inter-annual variability of rainfall and surface temperature. This study utilizes reanalysis and observational datasets: a hindcast of HIRHAM5 forced with ERA Interim, as well as two observation datasets for temperature and rainfall. Since reanalyses aim to make "best use" of all available observations by making a physically consistent representation continuous in time and space, and since there is a paucity of observations over many parts of Africa, the ERAI reanalysis is also used as a best estimate for model evaluation. Additionally, for evaluation of the bimodal nature of East Africa's rainfall, especially over Tanzania, three stations run by the Tanzania Meteorological Agency were used. The model data used in th is evaluation ranges from 1980 to 2006 iv HIRHAM5 demonstrates reasonable skill in the reproduction of observed patterns of mean climatology of rainfall, surface temperature and winds over East Africa. Moreover, the patterns of annual cycles of rainfall and surface temperature in the bimodal nature of East Africa are well represented. Furthermore, the model showed reasonable skill in the representation of the inter- annual variability and ENSO signals as suggested by the observation. Despite these strengths, HIRHAM5 shows some shortcomings. One weakness of the model is the simulation of the magnitude of a given variable over a specific region. For example, HIRHAM5 driven by ERAI underestimates rainfall and overestimates surface temperature over the entire domain of East Africa. The higher resolution HIRHAM5 (10km resolution) overestimates rainfall over high ground. The model bias could be due in part to the inadequacy of the observation networks in East Africa, represented in this thesis by the CRU and FEWS datasets. However, these two datasets draw on some different sources and neither do they have the same resolution. FEWS is a high resolution data (0.1 o ) gridded satellite-derived precipitation estimate covering the entire African continent while CRU datasets is a relatively low resolution (0.5 o ) dataset based on rain gauge monthly precipitation only; in addition , near surface temperature is also available. As no reliable wind observations exist, wind data was taken from the ERA-Interim reanalysis. The different observational datasets do not agree particularly well, which impedes evaluating the quality of the HIRHAM5 simulations, in particular the high resolution one. So while the higher resolution HIRHAM5 appears to be generally reliable, caution must be exercised in formulating conclusions from the results, especially over high ground and remote areas without adequate observation data. Under these constraints, the results suggest HIRHAM5 may be useful for assessing climate variability and change over East Africa. A weakness of the analysis presented here is that only one combination of GCM and RCM could be investigated in depth due to computer and time constraints. Therefore the results presented here, if used in application for climate change adaptation, should be considered in conjunction with a broader suite of data, such from the CORDEX programme. This has potential to increase the reliability of information about climate variability and change at a regional to local level necessary for impact assessment.

Forests are valuable ecosystems to society but are greatly threatened by changing factors from habitat conversion to climate change. South Africa's only extent of indigenous forest is predicted to disappear within the next 30 years. Many challenges are currently faced when trying to detect and interpret directional changes in forests which results in an urgent need to understand any effects that these change factors have on forest ecosystems. We investigate evidence for change in the old growth Lilyvlei Nature Reserve by monitoring growth and dynamics at various levels by examining a 20 year record of tree growth and stand dynamics. Through the inclusion of biodiversity measures and ecologically important plant traits, changes in forest dynamics and growth are investigated. Results show no total change in biomass across the 20 year period, although an intensification of extreme climatic events and dynamics indices were recorded for the second period. Significant correlations were found between community diversity measures and forest growth. Trait variables showed insignificant correlations with forest growth and dynamics. These results suggest that the Knysna forest is controlled by climatic variables and that increased diversity within communities result in increased growth. It is believed that changes in the forest may be masked by compositional shifts of just a few dominant species. These results become important, particularly in the light of changing climatic, atmospheric and environmental changes that threaten global ecosystems in the time to come. However, considering the brief 20 year period observed in a forest where the average individual has a life span of over a century, the importance of long term monitoring becomes an important component in the understanding of forest ecosystems.

In this study, two implementable leadership products were analogous to innovations, when framed in the context of Rogers’ diffusion-of-innovation theory. Thus, the products’ respective dissemination patterns were compared and contrasted-- quantitatively through purchase numbers, and qualitatively through opinions and events recollected by early users. The case-study approach was central to the investigation, and the results supported the Rogers model with regard to most constructs. The results pertaining to the S-shaped (sigmoidal) prototypical distribution curve, however, were enigmatic. The inverse conformity of sales figures with the S-shaped distribution curve implied that the dissemination process began during the field-testing stage rather than the purchasing stage. The organizational structure of the user institutions (targeted social system construct) conformed to Rogers’ theory that autonomy and teamwork characterized management climates where innovation tended to flourish. Field-testers and other early users were opinion leaders as construed by Rogers. The fact that twice as many field tests were conducted for the Case Studies as for the Simulation was likely a factor in the disparate 6:1 ratio of units of Cases sold to units of the Simulation sold for three consecutive years. Other factors possibly accounting for the disparate sales came from the attributes-of-innovation template which framed five generic attributes--compatibility, relative advantage, complexity, trialability, and observability. Both products conformed to the attributes as conceptualized by Rogers. The main difference that influenced the disparate sales was the greater complexity of the Simulation than of the Cases, although cost may have been a compatibility/relative advantage contributory factor. Finally, the study’s results indicated that dissemination parameters may have been narrowed by (a) the absence of mass media communication channels as part of the dissemination strategy at the awareness stage, and (b) lack of market research to focus the naming and packaging of the products for optimum compatibility and relative advantage. Researchers and change agencies can use these findings to improve future dissemination strategies and product designs. / Ph. D.

The world has been challenged by the COVID-19 pandemic since 2020. The pandemic affected all businesses, and the banking sector was no exception. Within this context, efficient change management (CM) is crucial to keep up with the changing business environment. Previous research has extensively covered the planned and emergent approaches to CM. However, the authors found that the perspective of complex organisations and their effect on change was missing. The purpose of the study was to develop a deeper understanding of how the internal processes were challenged during the COVID-19 pandemic, following a Scandinavian bank in their change to open a sister department in Vilnius. To study this, the authors conducted 12 semi-structured interviews with employees of Bank XYZ, from Vilnius and Stockholm. Kotter’s 8-step model and the complexity theory were combined and used as the conceptual framework.  The conclusion shows that the pandemic challenged three different aspects, communication, motivation, and new ways of working. These aspects challenged the traditional view of CM, which is viewed as static. The nonlinearity of CM processes is more present in disruptive changes such as the COVID-19 pandemic.

Anthropogenic aerosol emissions lead to an increase in the amount of cloud condensation nuclei and consequently an increase in cloud droplet number concentration and cloud albedo. The corresponding negative radiative forcing due to aerosol cloud interactions (RFaci) is one of the most uncertain radiative forcing terms as reported in the 5th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Here we show that previous observation-based studies underestimate aerosol-cloud interactions because they used measurements of aerosol optical properties that are not directly related to cloud formation and are hampered by measurement uncertainties. We have overcome this problem by the use of new polarimetric satellite retrievals of the relevant aerosol properties (aerosol number, size, shape). The resulting estimate of RFaci = −1.14 Wm 2 (range between −0.84 and −1.72 Wm 2) is more than a factor 2 stronger than the IPCC estimate that includes also other aerosol induced changes in cloud properties.

Background: The southern Appalachian states show a high prevalence of smoking, with associated high rates of both heart disease and cancer, yet cultural differences raise questions concerning the applicability of the most frequently used model for smoking cessation, the transtheoretical model, for smokers from this region of the country. Objective: To identify, by examining the applicability of the transtheoretical model for southern Appalachian smokers, the percentage of individuals in each of the five stages of change, the use of the processes of change from the transtheoretical model, and the scores on recognized predictors of smoking cessation including the temptation to smoke, the perceived barriers to cessation, the pros and cons of smoking, and nicotine dependence. Methods: This population-based, descriptive, cross-sectional study used a random sample of 3,800 telephone numbers, which were called up to eight times. The 659 smokers or former smokers who agreed to participate were mailed a written questionnaire consisting of six well-established scales that measure constructs from the transtheoretical model. The final sample consisted of 357 usable questionnaires. Results: The distribution of smokers in northeastern Tennessee differed from national samples across the first three stages of change, with 56% in precontemplation, as compared with previous findings of 40% in national samples. The subjects' scores for the pros of smoking were similar across the stages of change in this sample, and although the scores for the cons differed significantly across the stages in the sample, post hoc analysis indicated that the only significant change occurred between precontemplation and contemplation. The scores for temptation to smoke did not differ significantly across the stages of change in this sample. Discussion: Smokers from Appalachian Tennessee differ from smokers in other parts of the United States, and these findings raise questions about the applicability of the transtheoretical model for this population.

The Change Delineator Theory, a theory of change developed by the researcher, is proposed and tested for validity against an identified case of change. In the theory's propositions, the researcher describes the roles individuals play in the process of change and reform, and suggests how these roles may also impact the process of change as it occurs on organizational and societal levels. By proposing this perspective on the process of change, it is the intent of the researcher to assist leaders in schools and other organizations in becoming more knowledgeable about the phenomenon of change as it affects individuals, organizations, and societies. The Change Delineator Theory may also provide leaders with additional insights that could be useful in determining whether their organizations' policies, practices, and structures support or discourage change processes. In Change Delineator Theory, the researcher proposes that all persons involved in the process of change think and consequently behave in one of four primary modes called conceptual domains. These domains are: Creators, Translators, Innovators, and Practitioners. All persons have within them, to one degree or another, these four capacities. The environment in which an individual is functioning determines to a large degree which of these four domains will manifest itself at any given time. The four conceptual domains may also be used to describe how change tends to occur on organizational or societal levels. The researcher suggests that leaders have the power to establish organizational structures that support change by enabling persons in their schools or organizations to act more frequently out of their creator and innovator domains, or conversely, that hinder these activities through use of autocratic leadership styles or those that support maintenance of the status quo. The theory is tested by applying its propositions to an identified case of change in school-community relations known as the Computing Seniors Program. A case study approach is utilized to determine whether or not the theory has any validity when used to describe the roles people played in this case of change. / Ed. D.