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Previous research has shown that Taiwan's military spending is affected either by China's military buildup or the US's military pipeline. This study investigates whether it is also true an ongoing US-China relationship has dynamic effects. Three major findings are obtained from the statistical analyses. First and foremost, the level of US-China conflict has a contemporaneous positive effect on Taiwan's military spending. Second, the analyses also indicate that the volatility of US-China relations has negative effects on Taiwan's military spending. This finding suggests that instability in US-China relations will prompt Taiwan to decrease its military spending due to a higher amount of perceived security on the one hand, and Taiwan wants to avoid further provoking China on the other. Third, analyses indicate that an error correction model fares better than a simple budgetary incremental model in explaining the re-equilibrating effects of GNP growth on Taiwan's military spending. Overall, the results demonstrate the interplay of domestic and international constraints and may help to predict what will be the expected military spending when Taiwan's economy changes. I suggest that Taiwan's military spending is likely to be influenced by US-China relations as well as by foreign investment and domestic economic constraints as long as the United States policy toward the Taiwan problem remains unchanged.

University of Macau / Faculty of Social Sciences / Department of History

In this study a comprehensive multivariate time-series model is built to explain American foreign policy toward the People's Republic of China, during the cold war era from 1948 to 1989.

The evolution of the People's Republic of China's Latin American policy from Mao to Deng consists of four stages: (1) communist internationalism, (2) revolutionary policy, (3) government contacts and peaceful co-existence, and (4) independent and open policy. Besides explaining the meaning of each policy and its execution, this study identifies the key elements--domestic and external--which characterize the policy evolution, and compares those elements in an explication of why Sino-Latin American relations under Deng's regime appear more active than those of Mao's regime. The policies of Mao and Deng differ in the greater emphasis of Deng on the content of government contacts and his greater concern with economic relations, in contrast to the political motivation of Mao.

University of Macau / Faculty of Social Sciences. / Department of History

University of Macau / Faculty of Social Sciences and Humanities / Department of Government and Public Administration

University of Macau / Faculty of Social Sciences and Humanities / Department of Government and Public Administration

University of Macau / Faculty of Social Sciences and Humanities / Department of Government and Public Administration

University of Macau / Faculty of Social Sciences and Humanities / Department of Government and Public Administration