<p>This Master’s Degree is a futurology that aims to analyse how the Chinese stock market might develop for a period of ten years, i.e. between the years 2005-2015. Since the future never with certainty can be predicted, scenarios will be presented displaying other possible outcomes. Naturally these scenarios are built upon given assumptions which otherwise could be as many as one’s imagination allows. The thought is to present the results as an index so the reader easily can see the possible development and scenarios.</p><p>The methodology used to collect necessary data is through the classical Delphi method, by which one interviews the selected “experts” that have the knowledge needed of the Chinese stock market. Moreover, the authors have collected further information through literature, the Internet, articles, reports and other written sources needed to continue further investigation. Further, the forecast was measured by two steps. The first step was to calculate the value at the start point. The second step was to create tow types of scenarios, added as a frame of the forecast outcomes. To transform the analysis and the scenarios in to a numerical index, a technical measurement of Quasi Monte Carlo Simulation was applied.</p><p>The theories applied when creating the index is foremost the Arbitrage Pricing Theory, which makes it possibly to measure several factors at the same time, including macro economical effects on the stock market.</p><p>According to the result, four factors were identified as the driving forces when finding a balanced economy, which affect the stock exchange: the investment structure; equal standard of living; the state of the financial sector and increased transparency. The result also indicates that the Chinese stock market will not stay in parity with the earlier development. A healthier and more efficient market will occur, due to structural reforms and the expected improvements within the financial sector including the stock exchange.</p><p>It is with great anticipation that the authors await a bright and successful future for the Chinese stock market. A new direction has been settled, although there are many difficult challenges.</p>

This Master’s Degree is a futurology that aims to analyse how the Chinese stock market might develop for a period of ten years, i.e. between the years 2005-2015. Since the future never with certainty can be predicted, scenarios will be presented displaying other possible outcomes. Naturally these scenarios are built upon given assumptions which otherwise could be as many as one’s imagination allows. The thought is to present the results as an index so the reader easily can see the possible development and scenarios. The methodology used to collect necessary data is through the classical Delphi method, by which one interviews the selected “experts” that have the knowledge needed of the Chinese stock market. Moreover, the authors have collected further information through literature, the Internet, articles, reports and other written sources needed to continue further investigation. Further, the forecast was measured by two steps. The first step was to calculate the value at the start point. The second step was to create tow types of scenarios, added as a frame of the forecast outcomes. To transform the analysis and the scenarios in to a numerical index, a technical measurement of Quasi Monte Carlo Simulation was applied. The theories applied when creating the index is foremost the Arbitrage Pricing Theory, which makes it possibly to measure several factors at the same time, including macro economical effects on the stock market. According to the result, four factors were identified as the driving forces when finding a balanced economy, which affect the stock exchange: the investment structure; equal standard of living; the state of the financial sector and increased transparency. The result also indicates that the Chinese stock market will not stay in parity with the earlier development. A healthier and more efficient market will occur, due to structural reforms and the expected improvements within the financial sector including the stock exchange. It is with great anticipation that the authors await a bright and successful future for the Chinese stock market. A new direction has been settled, although there are many difficult challenges.

The thesis deals with analysis of performance of the Chinese stock market. The first chapter presents basic general characteristics of the stock market and equity investment. The second chapter focuses on the specifics of Chinese stock market. The third, last, chapter analyzes performance of the Chinese stock market.

This dissertation consists of three essays in financial and labor economics. It provides empirical evidence for testing the efficient market hypothesis in some financial markets and for analyzing the trends of power couples’ concentration in large metropolitan areas. The first chapter investigates the Bitcoin market’s efficiency by examining the correlation between social media information and Bitcoin future returns. First, I extract Twitter sentiment information from the text analysis of more than 130,000 Bitcoin-related tweets. Granger causality tests confirm that market sentiment information affects Bitcoin returns in the short run. Moreover, I find that time series models that incorporate sentiment information better forecast Bitcoin future prices. Based on the predicted prices, I also implement an investment strategy that yields a sizeable return for investors. The second chapter examines episodes of exuberance and collapse in the Chinese stock market and the second-board market using a series of extended right-tailed augmented Dickey-Fuller tests. The empirical results suggest that multiple “bubbles” occurred in the Chinese stock market, although insufficient evidence is found to claim the same for the second-board market. The third chapter analyzes the trends of power couples’ concentration in large metropolitan areas of the United States between 1940 and 2010. The urbanization of college-educated couples between 1940 and 1990 was primarily due to the growth of dual-career households and the resulting severity of the co-location problem (Costa and Kahn, 2000). However, the concentration of college-educated couples in large metropolitan areas stopped increasing between 1990 and 2010. According to the results of a multinomial logit model and a triple difference-in-difference model, this is because the co-location effect faded away after 1990.

<p>The Chinese stock market is a remarkable emerging market, the two stock markets Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges were both established in 1990, and since then they have been playing a very important role in Chinese economy. More and more attention is focused on the emerging Chinese market, and investors have been trying to find the opportunity to achieve abnormal returns through the Chinese stock market. We name this phenomenon market efficiency anomaly, one pattern of which is seasonality effect. In our study, we would like to choose the seasonality effect as the approach.</p><p>This study focuses on Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index, and we settle two research questions: Does seasonality effect exist in Chinese Stock exchange? Is the seasonality effect persistent over times?We try to test the seasonality in Chinese stock market by day of the week effect, January effect and semi-month effect. Deductive approach and quantitative research method are used in this thesis. To analyze seasonality effect, the data has been collected from Shanghai Stock Exchange Index and has been tested in four periods: 1992-1996,1997-2001, 2002-2006 and the whole period 1992-2006. Null hypothesis and T-test with α=0.05 is used to test the seasonality effect. The results show that seasonal anomalies like Day of the week effect, positive March effect, and negative July effect exist in the Chinese stock market, while semi-month effect does not occur significantly; but the existing seasonal effect is not persistent over times. The above indicates that the Chinese stock market is not fully efficient yet. Investors may have opportunities to make use of the seasonal anomalies to earn abnormal return.</p>

<p>The concept of grandstanding comes from Gompers (1996), in his article, he defined “to grandstand” as “to act or conduct oneself with a view to impressing onlookers”. The idea of grandstanding does not only apply solely to venture capital but also could apply to underwriters of IPOs industry as well.</p><p>IPOs activities provide huge revenues for underwriters, so underwriters compete with each other for IPO business. China’s stock market grows explosively after 2006, and it has the highest underpricing, as well as more and more underwriters have emerged recently, so our paper is constrained under Chinese stock market environment. We empirically examine whether inexperienced underwriters grandstand when they conduct IPOs in order to achieve more market shares, for example by deliberate underpricing or charging lower fee rates.</p><p>This study is conducted from the underwriter’s perspective. We use two kinds of reputation measurement methods to define “inexperienced” and “prestigious underwriters” and employ a quantitative approach to analyze the data. Evidence from a sample of 392 IPOs from June 19, 2006 to March 24, 2010 suggests that inexperienced underwriters do not have incentives to grandstand. The number of IPOs that underwriters have conducted and recent IPO performance do not always contribute to a gain of market share directly. Therefore, inexperienced underwriters do not provide more underpriced IPOs nor do they charge lower fee rates. Evidence also marginally supports that underwriters do not intend to conduct small offer sized IPOs.</p>

The concept of grandstanding comes from Gompers (1996), in his article, he defined “to grandstand” as “to act or conduct oneself with a view to impressing onlookers”. The idea of grandstanding does not only apply solely to venture capital but also could apply to underwriters of IPOs industry as well. IPOs activities provide huge revenues for underwriters, so underwriters compete with each other for IPO business. China’s stock market grows explosively after 2006, and it has the highest underpricing, as well as more and more underwriters have emerged recently, so our paper is constrained under Chinese stock market environment. We empirically examine whether inexperienced underwriters grandstand when they conduct IPOs in order to achieve more market shares, for example by deliberate underpricing or charging lower fee rates. This study is conducted from the underwriter’s perspective. We use two kinds of reputation measurement methods to define “inexperienced” and “prestigious underwriters” and employ a quantitative approach to analyze the data. Evidence from a sample of 392 IPOs from June 19, 2006 to March 24, 2010 suggests that inexperienced underwriters do not have incentives to grandstand. The number of IPOs that underwriters have conducted and recent IPO performance do not always contribute to a gain of market share directly. Therefore, inexperienced underwriters do not provide more underpriced IPOs nor do they charge lower fee rates. Evidence also marginally supports that underwriters do not intend to conduct small offer sized IPOs.

China’s economy has experienced a spectacular growth and achieved a remarkable success over the past three decades. Opportunities created by the striking economic growth have led China’s most important investment markets, real estate and stock markets to undertake an enormous transformation and development. This paper is concentrated on examining the relationship between the returns on Chinese real estate and stock markets. In particular, the paper attempts to investigate whether the returns are correlated between them, and to explore the potential diversification effects on creating a balanced portfolio including both real estate and stock assets. The empirical study is conducted on the basis of monthly data collected from year 2005 to 2010. Statistical tests are applied to measure the magnitude of return correlations between Chinese real estate and stock markets. The results of the empirical study indicate that the monthly returns on Chinese real estate and stock markets are not correlated. And when investing in China’s capital markets, diversification benefits could be achieved by creating a balanced portfolio including both real estate and stock assets. Keywords: Return Correlation; Diversification Benefit; Chinese Real Estate market; Chinese Stock Market

The Chinese stock market is a remarkable emerging market, the two stock markets Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges were both established in 1990, and since then they have been playing a very important role in Chinese economy. More and more attention is focused on the emerging Chinese market, and investors have been trying to find the opportunity to achieve abnormal returns through the Chinese stock market. We name this phenomenon market efficiency anomaly, one pattern of which is seasonality effect. In our study, we would like to choose the seasonality effect as the approach. This study focuses on Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index, and we settle two research questions: Does seasonality effect exist in Chinese Stock exchange? Is the seasonality effect persistent over times?We try to test the seasonality in Chinese stock market by day of the week effect, January effect and semi-month effect. Deductive approach and quantitative research method are used in this thesis. To analyze seasonality effect, the data has been collected from Shanghai Stock Exchange Index and has been tested in four periods: 1992-1996,1997-2001, 2002-2006 and the whole period 1992-2006. Null hypothesis and T-test with α=0.05 is used to test the seasonality effect. The results show that seasonal anomalies like Day of the week effect, positive March effect, and negative July effect exist in the Chinese stock market, while semi-month effect does not occur significantly; but the existing seasonal effect is not persistent over times. The above indicates that the Chinese stock market is not fully efficient yet. Investors may have opportunities to make use of the seasonal anomalies to earn abnormal return.

The Study discusses the development of the venture capital (VC) industry in China, from its fundraising, investment to post investment, and comparisons on a global scale. We also analyzed the relationship between the innovative industries and economic growth, and discussed the VC’s exit route and stock market in China. The growth of China’s VC industry is still promising but there are still some challenges that it has to overcome. Furthermore, the VC development in China also implies the growth potential of the Chinese stock markets, and suggests that Taiwan should act as an active role and take advantage of its geographical position, strong relationship and regional stability with China to participate in the possible collaboration of the stock markets in the Asia-Pacific region.