Submitted by André Dantas cabral (andre.d.cabral@hotmail.com) on 2017-07-03T16:21:26Z No. of bitstreams: 1 FISCAL CYCLES AND THE BRAZILIAN STATES - AN ANALYSIS OF THE MECHANISMS BEHIND TERM LIMITS.pdf: 2264599 bytes, checksum: 9d28802089f82faa97a48877dc74ea6d (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by ÁUREA CORRÊA DA FONSECA CORRÊA DA FONSECA (aurea.fonseca@fgv.br) on 2017-07-04T15:42:36Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 FISCAL CYCLES AND THE BRAZILIAN STATES - AN ANALYSIS OF THE MECHANISMS BEHIND TERM LIMITS.pdf: 2264599 bytes, checksum: 9d28802089f82faa97a48877dc74ea6d (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-07-20T18:54:02Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 FISCAL CYCLES AND THE BRAZILIAN STATES - AN ANALYSIS OF THE MECHANISMS BEHIND TERM LIMITS.pdf: 2264599 bytes, checksum: 9d28802089f82faa97a48877dc74ea6d (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-02-07 / The objective of this thesis is to observe if a political business cycle is in effect on the Brazilian states. It also aims to observe how the institution of term limits, aligned with a resign-to-run law, is affecting the fiscal behavior of the states. It does so by testing two possible mechanisms trough, which term limits may be acting: reelections and resignations. The results suggest that there is a political fiscal cycle happening on the state level, with an increase in expenditures before elections followed by a steep decline afterwards. Term limitation also perform an important role in this cycle, with states experiencing lower expenditures when an incumbent faces a limit. A more detailed analysis of the phenomenon showed that this difference was not the result of an increase in expenditures for non-limited incumbents driven by the possibility of reelection, but by a decrease in expenditures for limited incumbents driven by an increase in resignations. This study strengthen the literature on sub-national political cycles by showing that those cycles are still present at the Brazillian state level. It also explores an alternative and yet understudied mechanism through which term limits affects fiscal behavior (in conjoint with a resign-to-run law), resignations. In doing so, this study highlights the importance of mechanism analysis when observing the fiscal effects of different institutions.

Submitted by Caroline Falcao (caroline.rfalcao@ufpe.br) on 2017-05-09T15:34:24Z No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 1232 bytes, checksum: 66e71c371cc565284e70f40736c94386 (MD5) Dissertação Saulo Felipe Costa.pdf: 1452357 bytes, checksum: 0b48a353adb96d0a477a32d1fef74fe7 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-05-09T15:34:24Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 1232 bytes, checksum: 66e71c371cc565284e70f40736c94386 (MD5) Dissertação Saulo Felipe Costa.pdf: 1452357 bytes, checksum: 0b48a353adb96d0a477a32d1fef74fe7 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012 / Esta dissertação teve como objetivo examinar a existência de ciclos políticos eleitorais na América Latina no período democrático recente. Mais especificamente examina-se a influência dos ciclos eleitorais sobre os resultados macroeconômicos latino-americanos no período 1994-2011, que foi marcado pela globalização e pela consolidação da democracia na região. Para tanto, esta pesquisa baseou-se em dados secundários de dezoito países da América Latina – Argentina, Bolívia, Brasil, Chile, Colômbia, Costa Rica, Equador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, México, Nicarágua, Panamá, Paraguai, Peru, República Dominicana, Uruguai e Venezuela – e teve o intuito de verificar se as teorias dos ciclos político econômicos forneceriam uma resposta para o padrão encontrado nestes países no período analisado de 1994 a 2011. Os resultados obtidos pela pesquisa não identificaram influência do período eleitoral sobre as variáveis selecionadas, contrariando as expectativas teóricas do modelo oportunista. No que diz respeito às expectativas do modelo partidário, os resultados não foram conclusivos, sendo significantes apenas em alguns modelos econométricos e para algumas orientações ideológicas. O padrão encontrado aponta ainda uma relevância das variáveis de abertura econômica e variação no preço de commodities, indicando que a globalização destas economias vem impactando em seus indicadores macroeconômicos, apontando que a globalização e a integração dos mercados financeiros vêm favorecendo a disciplina fiscal ao punirem estratégias oportunistas. / This dissertation aimed to examine the existence of political electoral cycles in Latin America in recent democratic period. More specifically examines the influence of electoral cycles on macroeconomic outcomes in Latin America in the period 1994-2011, which was marked by globalization and consolidation of democracy in the region. To this end, this research was based on secondary data from eighteen Latin American countries - Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Dominican Republic, Uruguay and Venezuela - and aimed to verify the theories if political economic cycles would provide a response to the pattern found in these countries during the period analyzed from 1994 to 2011. The results obtained by the survey did not identify the influence of the electoral period on the selected variables, contrary to theoretical expectations of the opportunistic model. With regard to the expectations of the party model, the results were not conclusive, being significant only in some econometric models and some ideological orientations. The pattern found also indicates a relevance of the variables of economic liberalization and changes in commodity prices, indicating that the globalization of these economies is impacting on its macroeconomic indicators, pointing out that globalization and integration of financial markets has favored fiscal discipline to punish opportunistic strategies.