In this dissertation we analyze the effects of low carbon energy technology R&D portfolios on the cost of climate change mitigation. We use the results to create the analytical foundation for a decision support system aimed at effectively communicating the effects of uncertainty to decision makers. Specifically, we focus on three main areas. The first is generating a correlated probability distribution around detailed energy price forecasts. The second is showing how the availability of advanced energy technologies and combinations of them affect the marginal abatement cost curve. The third is creating the analytic foundation for a decision support system (DSS) by using an integrated assessment model to analyze the effects of combinations of low carbon energy technologies on CO2 concentration stabilization costs and then combining the results with probabilistic data from expert elicitations to analyze R&D portfolios. The third part also involves creating a multivariate regression model to represent the relationship between variables for additional analysis.

This dissertation consists of three separate research papers. Each paper uses a different econometric technique to analyze a problem relating to the social aspects of climate change. The first paper investigates a potential adaptive strategy to counteract warming stream waters through stream intervention projects. Using novel non-parametric matching estimation techniques it is shown that these intervention projects have positive effects on homeowners that are near to the stream but downstream of the project site. The second paper uses Bayesian econometric techniques to analyze survey data regarding the welfare losses experienced as a result of power outages across Europe. This paper shows how the severity and spatial distribution of these welfare losses will change as the climate warms, which enables the current electricity grid expansion taking place in Europe to account for these effects of climate change. The third paper uses Classical econometric techniques to estimate the effect of temperature on visitor recreation choices around Lake Tahoe. It is then shown that under climate scenarios the demand for beach and water access at Lake Tahoe will greatly increase, which suggests that lake managers begin to plan regulations and build infrastructure to account for this demand increase. / Ph. D.

This thesis contains three separate papers. A balance of questions: what can we ask of climate change economics? is a critical analysis of the economics of climate change literature. It concludes that much more research effort needs to be put into studying the investment needed for a transition to a zero carbon energy infrastructure, rather than the focus on determining the social cost of carbon. The interaction of scale economies and energy quality is a theoretical study of the ability of economies to operate given different qualities of energy resources. Measuring costs and benefits of independence is an analysis of the welfare costs to Catalonia from reduced trade, which may arise on independence from Spain. These costs are set against the benefits to Catalonia of not paying fiscal transfers to the rest of Spain.

This thesis sets out to explore some of the key dimensions in the process of socio-technological change inherent in the shift to a low carbon economy. This is done in two parts, the first focusing on theory, the second, empirical case studies. Out of the diversity of interactions between actors, technologies, and policies surrounding this process, one key question emerges: can societies really shift the structure of their economies so fundamentally to achieve a low carbon future within a reasonable timeframe? Chapter One develops an integrated approach to economic and political change to interrogate this question. This synthesizes a review of literature (Part One) examining the role of technology within some of the main theories of economic change in the social sciences. Two broad paradigms are distinguished. First, a paradigm based around the notion of equilibrium, notably the standard welfare approach of neoclassical economics; and secondly, an evolutionary paradigm, which views the economy as a complex adaptive system – such as exemplified by theories of path dependency. This theoretical background provides a broad narrative to frame and inform Part Two of the thesis. First in Chapter Four, socio-technical change is investigated in the context of the diffusion of energy efficient lighting in Germany. This study investigates the relationships between human behaviour and attitudes, lamp technology and the evolving nature of institutions, to provide a framework with which to consider the contentious issue of individual freedom versus government control in the politics of change to lower-carbon emissions. In Chapter Five, the case for the creation of a market for CO2 pollution permits is developed. In making this case, the strengths and weaknesses of emissions trading are compared and contrasted with other policy instruments and the broader political economy of the various policy options discussed. Chapter 6 builds on this to examine the political economy of implementing an emissions trading scheme in Australia and the impact the Kyoto Protocol has had on domestic politics and GHG mitigation. Chapter Seven continues with the theme of building ‘a political ecology of the state’ by investigating the politics and economics of greenhouse gas mitigation in Russia. Finally, Chapter Eight recapitulates the aims, nature and conclusions of this research and draws out its implications for policy as well as mapping out some areas for further research. In particular, the need to bring a greater sense of politics back into the study of the economy is highlighted as a vital part of building a renewed, more sustainable economic paradigm in the wake of the financial crisis and, as a way of strengthening the connection between social values and market outcomes.

La thèse montre comment des mécanismes "de second rang" (rigidités des marchés du travail, imperfection des anticipations) et des mécanismes considérés de court-terme(inertie du capital installé, chômage) induisent que (i) les coûts de l'atténuation sont des coûts de transition, si tant est que des politiques de réorientation des investissements sont mises en place de façon précoce pour éviter des lock-ins sur des chemins de développement carbonés ; (ii) ces coûts peuvent être élevés, en particulier pour les pays émergents et en développement. Dès lors, la représentation des rigidités du monde réel dans les modèles des interfaces économie-énergie-environnement a des implications importantes pour l'analyse des politiques climatiques. L'égalisation des prix du carbone n'est plus la politique minimisant les coûts de l'atténuation lorsque l'on se place dans un monde de second-rang. La thèse illustre ainsi que le paquet "prix du carbone mondial plus transferts compensatoires" ne peut conduire, par lui-même, à un accord acceptable pour les pays émergents et en développement. Elle insiste sur la nécessité de concevoir des politiques alternatives ouvrant la palette des variables de contrôle (investissements publics, infrastructures, réformes fiscales) et passant par des politiques spécifiques au niveau local / The thesis shows how second-best mechanisms (labour markets rigidities, imperfect foresight) and mechanisms considered as short-term issues (inertia of productive capital,unemployment) induce that (i) mitigation costs are transition costs insofar as policies to reorient investments to low-carbon infrastructures are implemented early to avoid lock-ins in high-carbon development paths ; (ii) these transition costs can be significant, in particular for emerging and developing countries. Therefore, representing real world rigidities in energy-economy-environment models has important implications for the analysis of climate policies. Equalizing carbon prices is not anymore the policy minizing mitigation costs if a second-best world is considered. The thesis thus illustrates that the package "worldwide carbon price plus compensatory transfers" cannot lead, by itself, to a palatable deal for emerging and developing countries. It insists on the necessity to design alternative policies to open the control variables palette (public investments, infrastructures, fiscal reforms) and allowing specific policies at the local level

No / This paper examines the effects of geopolitical risks on renewable energy demand in 20 Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) member countries from 1970 to 2019. The renewable energy demand function includes carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, economic globalisation, natural resources rents, and per capita income as control variables. It is found that geopolitical risks reduce the demand for renewable energy and threaten climate change mitigation policies. Degrading the environment in terms of rising CO2 emissions is detrimental to the renewable energy demand. Natural resource rents also decrease renewable energy consumption. However, higher per capita income and economic globalisation significantly increase renewable energy consumption. These findings bear crucial policy implications for the Russia-Ukraine War era, suggesting that geopolitical risks discourage renewable energy demand. Therefore, policymakers in the OECD countries should focus on geopolitical harmony among economic agents, groups, and regions.

This paper explores the conflicts of interest present in science policy and how claims being made for evidence based science can be used to suppress critical social science research. The specific case presented concerns the attempts to ban and censor my work criticising the economics of carbon emissions trading while I was working for the Commonwealth Scientific Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) in Australia. The role of management and the Science Minister are documented through their own public statements. The case raises general issues about the role of epistemic communities in the production of knowledge, the potential for manipulation of information under the guise of quality control and the problems created by claiming a fact-value dichotomy in the science-policy interface. The implications go well beyond just climate change research and challenge how public policy is being formulated in modern industrial societies where scientific knowledge and corporate interests are closely intertwined. (author's abstract) / Series: SRE - Discussion Papers

Human induced climate change poses a series of ethical challenges to the current political economy, although it has often be regarded by economists as only an ethical issue for those concerned about future generations. The central debate in economics has then concerned the rate at which future costs and benefits should be discounted. Indeed the full range of ethical aspects of climate change are rarely even discussed. Despite recent high profile and lengthy academic papers on the topic the ethical remains at best superficial within climate change economics. Recognising the necessary role of ethical judgment poses a problem for economists who conduct exercises in cost-benefit analysis and deductive climate modelling under the presumption of an objectivity that excludes values. Priority is frequently given to orthodox economic methodology, but that this entails a consequentialist utilitarian philosophy is forgotten while the terms of the debate and understanding is simultaneously restricted. We set out to raise the relevance of a broader range of ethical issues including: intergenerational ethics as the basis for the discount rate, interregional distribution of harm, equity and justice issues concerning the allocation of carbon budgets, incommensurability in the context of compensation, and the relationship of climate ethics to economic growth. We argue that the pervasiveness of strong uncertainty in climate science, incommensurability of values and nonutilitarian ethics are inherent features of the climate policy debate. That mainstream economics is ill-equipped to address these issues relegates it to the category of misplaced concreteness and its policy prescriptions are then highly misleading misrepresentations of what constitutes ethical action. (authors' abstract) / Series: SRE - Discussion Papers