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京都大学 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(経済学) / 甲第25565号 / 経博第695号 / 京都大学大学院経済学研究科経済学専攻 / (主査)教授 諸富 徹, 教授 岡 敏弘, 講師 岩島 史 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Economics / Kyoto University / DGAM

A partir da Política Nacional sobre Mudança do Clima, o Brasil tem publicado inúmeras leis sobre mudança do clima, mas tem-se verificado dificuldades em sua aplicação. Apesar disso, pouco se tem escrito com o objetivo de identificar os aspectos mais críticos que permitam auxiliar a revisão e aprimoramento do marco jurídico-climático no país. O objetivo principal deste estudo foi realizar uma análise crítica da Política Nacional sobre Mudança do Clima e da Política sobre Mudança do Clima do Estado de São Paulo, a fim de avaliar se o processo de incorporação da dimensão climática no ordenamento jurídico brasileiro, e em especial no Estado de São Paulo, tem sido adequado e, em caso negativo, porque não. Foram identificadas e estudadas mais de 100 leis no Brasil sobre mudança do clima, mas a análise crítica na dissertação limitou-se à lei nacional e paulista sobre mudança do clima. Também foi estudada a bibliografia principal sobre o assunto e foi realizado estudo de casos já levados ao Poder Judiciário. Os resultados da análise permitem verificar que as principais falhas dos marcos legais em nível nacional e estadual apontam para a ausência de clareza na alocação de responsabilidades dos setores envolvidos. Além disso, a legislação paulista adotou uma meta de redução de emissões que tem se mostrado inatingível, o que gera insegurança jurídica e prejudica a eficácia das normas. Finalmente, recomendações são apresentadas para o aprimoramento dos marcos legais. / Since the Brazilian National Climate Change Policy was enacted, Brazil has been issuing many laws on climate change, but implementation of such laws has not been adequate. Nevertheless, there are very few legal assessments on the Brazilian climate change regime that could assist to improve its effectiveness. The main purpose of this masters dissertation is to undertake a critical assessment of Brazilian National Climate Change Policy and of State of São Paulo Climate Change Policy, in order to comprehend whether or not the process of incorporating the climate change dimension on the Brazilian legal system has been adequate, and if not why. More than one hundred laws on climate change in Brazil were researched, but the detailed assessment was limited to the National and State of São Paulo legislation. Court precedents and main doctrine have also been analyzed. The results of the assessment demonstrate that since the National Climate Change Policy, many other climate change laws have been enacted, and most of them present serious uncertainties, which impair the execution of these laws. The main uncertainties of such laws arise from the fact the they do not clearly allocate responsibility and obligations to all stakeholders involved. Besides, the state law adopted a reduction target that is not achievable, which cause legal uncertainty and impairs the execution of these laws. In the end, the dissertation presents recommendations for the improvement of Brazilian climate change legal regime.

A partir da Política Nacional sobre Mudança do Clima, o Brasil tem publicado inúmeras leis sobre mudança do clima, mas tem-se verificado dificuldades em sua aplicação. Apesar disso, pouco se tem escrito com o objetivo de identificar os aspectos mais críticos que permitam auxiliar a revisão e aprimoramento do marco jurídico-climático no país. O objetivo principal deste estudo foi realizar uma análise crítica da Política Nacional sobre Mudança do Clima e da Política sobre Mudança do Clima do Estado de São Paulo, a fim de avaliar se o processo de incorporação da dimensão climática no ordenamento jurídico brasileiro, e em especial no Estado de São Paulo, tem sido adequado e, em caso negativo, porque não. Foram identificadas e estudadas mais de 100 leis no Brasil sobre mudança do clima, mas a análise crítica na dissertação limitou-se à lei nacional e paulista sobre mudança do clima. Também foi estudada a bibliografia principal sobre o assunto e foi realizado estudo de casos já levados ao Poder Judiciário. Os resultados da análise permitem verificar que as principais falhas dos marcos legais em nível nacional e estadual apontam para a ausência de clareza na alocação de responsabilidades dos setores envolvidos. Além disso, a legislação paulista adotou uma meta de redução de emissões que tem se mostrado inatingível, o que gera insegurança jurídica e prejudica a eficácia das normas. Finalmente, recomendações são apresentadas para o aprimoramento dos marcos legais. / Since the Brazilian National Climate Change Policy was enacted, Brazil has been issuing many laws on climate change, but implementation of such laws has not been adequate. Nevertheless, there are very few legal assessments on the Brazilian climate change regime that could assist to improve its effectiveness. The main purpose of this masters dissertation is to undertake a critical assessment of Brazilian National Climate Change Policy and of State of São Paulo Climate Change Policy, in order to comprehend whether or not the process of incorporating the climate change dimension on the Brazilian legal system has been adequate, and if not why. More than one hundred laws on climate change in Brazil were researched, but the detailed assessment was limited to the National and State of São Paulo legislation. Court precedents and main doctrine have also been analyzed. The results of the assessment demonstrate that since the National Climate Change Policy, many other climate change laws have been enacted, and most of them present serious uncertainties, which impair the execution of these laws. The main uncertainties of such laws arise from the fact the they do not clearly allocate responsibility and obligations to all stakeholders involved. Besides, the state law adopted a reduction target that is not achievable, which cause legal uncertainty and impairs the execution of these laws. In the end, the dissertation presents recommendations for the improvement of Brazilian climate change legal regime.

In today’s world of volatile fuel prices and climate concerns, there is little study on the relation between vehicle ownership patterns and attitudes toward potential policies and vehicle technologies. This work provides new data on ownership decisions and owner preferences under various scenarios, coupled with calibrated models to microsimulate Austin’s household-fleet evolution. Results suggest that most Austinites (63%, population-corrected share) support a feebate policy to favor more fuel efficient vehicles. Top purchase criteria are vehicle purchase price, type/class, and fuel economy (with 30%, 21% and 19% of respondents placing these in their top three). Most (56%) respondents also indicated that they would seriously consider purchasing a Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV) if it were to cost $6,000 more than its conventional, gasoline-powered counterpart. And many respond strongly to signals on the external (health and climate) costs of a vehicle’s emissions, more strongly than they respond to information on fuel cost savings. 25-year simulations suggest that 19% of Austin’s vehicle fleet could be comprised of Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs) and PHEVs under adoption of a feebate policy (along with PHEV availability in Year 1 of the simulation, and current gas prices throughout). Under all scenarios vehicle usage levels (in total vehicle miles traveled [VMT]) are predicted to increase overall, along with average vehicle ownership levels (per household, and per capita); and a feebate policy is predicted to raise total regional VMT slightly (just 4.43 percent, by simulation year 25), relative to the trend scenario, while reducing CO2 emissions only slightly (by 3.8 percent, relative to trend). Doubling the trend-case gas price to $5/gallon is simulated to reduce the year-25 vehicle use levels by 17% and CO2 emissions by 22% (relative to trend). Two- and three-vehicle households are simulated to be the highest adopters of HEVs and PHEVs across all scenarios. And HEVs, PHEVs and Smart Cars are estimated to represent a major share of the fleet’s VMT (25%) by year 25 under the feebate scenario. The combined share of vans, pickup trucks, sport utility vehicles (SUVs), and cross over utility vehicles (CUVs) is lowest under the feebate scenario, at 35% (versus 47% in Austin’s current household fleet), yet feebate-policy receipts exceed rebates in each simulation year. A 15% reduction in the usage levels of SUVs, CUVs and minivans is observed in the $5/gallon scenario (relative to trend). Mean use levels per vehicle of HEVs and PHEVs are simulated to have a variation of 753 and 495 across scenarios. In the longer term, gas price dynamics, tax incentives, feebates and purchase prices along with new technologies, government-industry partnerships, and more accurate information on range and recharging times (which increase customer confidence in EV technologies) should have even more significant effects on energy dependence and greenhouse gas emissions. / text

The thesis aims on the policy-making in the EU with the focus on the climate change policy. The thesis analyses the way the climate change policy is decided within the EU and on the international level. It describes the legislative procedure and the development of international and European climate change policy - including the case study focusing on the process of negotiating the proposal on land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF).

This thesis investigates the factors that can sufficiently explain China's policy change on climate change issue. We utilize interest-based theory in environmental politics and constructivism to explore the drivers behind China's climate change policy formulation. The theories are tested by process tracing the historical development of China's policy on climate change. The analysis is further complemented by other explanatory factors based on empirical findings, including domestic policy process and the impact of non-state actors. The study finds out that China's climate change policy has experienced positive changes with growing policy stringency. The result shows that China's climate change policy cannot be sufficiently explained by the interest-based theory, the factor regarding ecological vulnerability can be only partially confirmed. Instead, international norms can provide plausible incentives for policy change through the process of socialization. The final policy outcomes are also connected to the interest of the most influential domestic political actor. The study results help us to better understand the environmental politics in China and provides guidelines to predict China's role in international climate change negotiation after the Conference of Parties in Paris.

This thesis examines two organizational strategies employed for influencing American environmental policy with considerations to the "power elite" and "pluralist" models of policy control. Using a data set comprised of 379 organizations derived from US congressional hearings on climate change policy between 1976 and 2006, I find that industrial corporations conceal the public footprint of their involvement by financially encouraging "independent" research centers to provide favorable testimony. Meanwhile, nonprofit organizations are more likely to be co-represented by shared experts, a resource that is strategically shared for political gain. These findings provide some circumscribed support for both the power elite and pluralist models of organizational influence: the organization of power elites has a disproportionate amount of resources in a system that provides an arena for competing values and goals. Implications for understanding the organizational strategies towards congressional testimony as well as directions for future research are discussed based on these findings.

Even though there is a strong public support for more ambitious policies to mitigate climate change, the politics do not yet follow. Climate assemblies (CA) have been suggested to improve climate change governance by bringing the citizens into the policymaking. However, in systems of representative democracy, the effect of CAs is largely decided by whether the politicians choose to follow the CA’s recommendations. Therefore, the politicians’ attitudes to CAs are of importance. This study is based on interviews with politicians in four Swedish municipalities who are about to conduct their first CA. The politicians’ attitudes to CAs are explored regarding how they view the democratic qualities of the CA and what their expectations are. The results show that CAs are mainly valued as a tool to create innovative policy proposals that are unlikely to stem out of the regular processes. Furthermore, the politicians see it as advantageous compared to regular citizen participation processes that the participants are well-informed and many social groups are represented. Regarding the role of the CA, the politicians frequently contrast the CA’s narrow focus on climate with their responsibility for the whole municipality. The argument is that the CA is not knowledgeable enough to make prioritisations concerning the whole municipality. Thus, the CA produces recommendations that the politicians will consider, but not necessarily follow. The study also highlights implications of the results for the design of CAs, for example in terms of recruitment and scope. There is no one size fits all approach, instead there are trade-offs that need to be acknowledged in the design to increase the chances of the CA to reach its set purpose.

The Mexican Caribbean tourism sector is highly exposed to hurricane activity, yet coastal tourism is also a major driver influencing regional biophysical and social vulnerability to climate risks. Drawing on a political ecology approach and a vulnerability assessment, this study asks how experiences with extreme hurricane events in the Mexican Caribbean shape climate change adaptation in the regional tourism sector. This study uses multiple methods, scales and field sites to (a) examine how biophysical vulnerability to extreme hurricanes affects the tourism sector, (b) explain the changing conditions of social vulnerability linked to hurricane damage in the tourism sector and (c) assess the present and future opportunities and obstacles for adaptation planning. The main findings show that the region is experiencing a phase of unprecedented high intensity hurricanes. It is uncertain, however, whether changes in hurricane activity exceed natural multi-decadal variability. Tourism is one major driver of land use changes which have resulted in some of the world’s fastest increase in coastal urban sprawl. Most tourism infrastructure is located in areas with the greatest exposure to hurricanes. Hurricane Wilma which hit the region in 2005 is the most expensive natural disaster in the history of the Mexican insurance industry. Hotels have showed a high ability to recover operations after hurricanes. There is a high penetration of insurance ownership in hotels and there is substantial mobilization of public and private financial and human resources during hurricane disasters. Hotel responses to hurricanes, however, tend to be reactive and autonomous. One important consequence of hurricanes is that hoteliers in the interest to reduce operational costs, fire those workers with the weakest labour rights. Thus, hotel workers suffer from ‘double exposure’, a situation where hotel workers are confronted with the consequences of climate change while simultaneously suffering the consequences of globalization and neoliberal policies which have reduced the power of unions and weakened access to social security. The Mexican government has created a national climate change strategy and its operational programme which has led to the consolidation of an adaptation organizational structures at the national and state levels. I conclude, however, that adaptation planning may not result in the necessary actions on the ground since local actors are not well integrated yet into such efforts. This study shows the importance of regional adaptation research that takes into account perspectives from both the physical and social sciences. This study highlights the importance of interactions between local actors, the larger socioeconomic and political economy context to inform adaptation planning and policy.