Climate change has become a critical issue in port supply chains in recent decades, involving a variety of disciplines and posing substantial challenges to ports due to their high vulnerability. To date, there is insufficient research on how to minimize these uncertainties in terms of decision-making and port planning. Also, even for port operators who have taken countermeasures to minimize the impacts of climate change on their ports, some strategic and planning problems still remain. Based on the above issues, this thesis proposes that it is pivotal to enhance the awareness of the community’s consideration of the risks and uncertainties of climate change impacts on ports, and calls for adaptation strategies to cope with climate change impacts from the perspective of port supply chains. Through an extensive literature review, and a nation-wide survey, as well as in-depth interviews in case studies focused on a seaport, an inland port and railway (Port of Montreal, CentrePort Canada and Hudson Railway respectively), this thesis provides and overview of the risks and uncertainties posed by climate change to Canadian ports. Through both quantitative (SPSS in survey) and qualitative analyses (interviews in the case study), it is expected to fill the gaps of regional studies focused on Canada and the under-researched areas including dry ports, port supply chains and adaptation port planning by considering the risks and uncertainties posed by climate change. / October 2015

The communication of anthropogenic climate change presents many challenges, for communicators, scientists, policymakers and publics alike. Particularly difficult is the issue of uncertainty, which can include ambiguity around the phenomenon of climate change, the possible impacts of this, and the timeframe within which such impacts will be seen. Previous research has established that audiences are often averse to uncertainty, and will disregard or ignore messages that contain it. This raises a theoretical and practical question of how best to manage uncertainty in climate change communication in order to maintain audience engagement. This question was the focus of this PhD research. Specifically, the aim of this thesis was to explore the process of climate change communication from the perspectives of the scientists, communicators, and the recipient. I achieved this research goal by utilising a mixed methods design. I firstly interviewed the originators (i.e., scientists) and professional communicators of climate change information to explore the process from their side (Chapter 2). This revealed a number of themes connecting to the different ways scientists and communicators understand the process of communication (e.g., as information exchange versus relationship building), the challenges of climate change communication and uncertainty in particular, and the (appropriate) role of scientists when communicating with the public about climate change. Next, in a series of studies I experimentally explored how audiences respond to variations in the informational content of climate change messages (such as the level of uncertainty) and the role of different communicative styles in further shaping audience engagement (Chapter 3). Broadly, the results of these studies suggest that while uncertainty can undermine audience engagement with climate change communications, the negative effects of uncertainty are buffered when the communicator is perceived to be high in morality and/ or when they use an open communication style. Interestingly, these effects of communication style were particularly evident among women, whereas men tended to react against this. Together, these studies show how relational factors (e.g., communication styles and perceptions of communication sources) can moderate the impact of informational content on audience responses. Finally, I ended this programme of research by looking in more detail at how audiences perceive a real scientific organisation engaged in climate change communication and the bases of their beliefs about organisation competence and morality (Chapter 4). This study combined qualitative and quantitative data to delve deeper into some of the insights gained in the experimental work, and to reconnect this to the real-world organisation context I began with. This study again showed how perceptions of communicator morality moderate responses to uncertainty, but also provide useful insights into the different origins of perceptions of morality and competence. Chapter 5 concludes by summarising the research presented in this thesis, discussing its strengths, limitations and ways forward. Here, I also consider the theoretical, methodological and practical implications of the thesis’ research findings. Briefly, it is argued that addressing the scientific uncertainties of climate change may not necessarily mean altering the form of information itself. Rather, modifying the language peripheral to the information that contains uncertainty, attending to the ways in which audiences perceive the sources of uncertainty, and considering variations amongst publics, may help to engage in effective communication around the complex issue of climate change.

Le changement climatique pourrait avoir des conséquences importantes pour les ressources en eaux et les infrastructures hydrauliques. Le dimensionnement et le fonctionnement des réservoirs devraient ainsi être modifiés en prenant en compte des scénarios de changement climatique. Un modèle de dimensionnement coût-bénéfice d'un réservoir à l'échelle du bassin versant est appliqué en Grèce afin d'évaluer le coût de l'incertitude sur le climat futur et les dommages du changement climatique. Dans cette étude de cas, le coût de l'erreur est faible, et l'adaptation n'est pas efficace. Une méthodologie sur toute la région méditerranéenne, avec une modélisation générique à l'échelle des bassins versant est ensuite développée. Les réseaux de réservoirs et les liens réservoirs-demandes sont reconstruits et le fonctionnement coordonné des réseaux de réservoirs est déterminé, en utilisant uniquement des données disponibles à l'échelle globale. La méthodologie de reconstruction des liens est appliquée à l'irrigation et validée qualitativement sur l'Algérie. Le changement de fiabilité, avec adaptation des règles opérationnelles, sous changement climatique, semble être plus influencé par les changements de ruissellement que par les changements de demande. Les changements obtenus pour le Nil, l'Europe et le Moyen Orient ne sont pas très marqués, alors que les pays d'Afrique du Nord sous influence méditerranéenne comme la Tunisie ou l'Algérie voient une diminution importante de la fiabilité des apports d'eau pour l'irrigation / Climate change could affect water resources and hydraulic infrastructures seriously. Dimensioning and operation of reservoirs should therefore be modified according to climatic change scenarios. To assess the effect of climate uncertainty on reservoir volumes dimensioning using cost-benefit analysis, a model of reservoir dimensioning at the river basin scale is applied in Greece. For the case study, there is no cost of error and adaptation seems to be inefficient. A methodology at the scale of the Mediterranean region with a generic modeling at the river basin level is developed. Reservoirs networks and reservoirs-demands links are reconstructed and coordinated reservoirs networks operation is determined, using only globally available data. The link reconstruction methodology is applied on irrigation demand and validated qualitatively on Algeria. Change in reliability with adaptation of reservoir operating rules under climate change over the Mediterranean region is then assessed. Reliability changes seem to be more influenced by inflow changes than by demand changes. They are not important for the Nile basin and the European and Middle East sub-regions, while in North African countries with a more pronounced Mediterranean influence, like Tunisia or Algeria, reliability decrease can be significant