Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of California, San Diego, 2006. / Title from first page of PDF file (viewed July 21, 2006). Available via ProQuest Digital Dissertations. Vita. Includes bibliographical references (p. 253-284).

The phenomenon of climate change exists in a liminal state between denial and acceptance, past and future, theory and reality, problem and catastrophe, unfolding in the spaces between apparently stable forms. This thesis considers different temporalities emerging within this transition through a creative exploration of extreme weather and climatic events that seeks to foreground the idea of change itself. Research centers around the Florida Keys, a low lying archipelago that is widely expected to become uninhabitable in the next half century due to sea level rise, but only if the islands do not suffer a similar fate much sooner with the sudden arrival of a catastrophic hurricane. While most Keys residents are unconcerned about the growing reality of sea level rise, hurricanes are a constant threat generating a palpable atmosphere of anticipation and corresponding precaution. In resonance with this regular storm activity in the Florida Keys, the project also reflects on the coincidental occurrence of Hurricanes Irene (2011) and Sandy (2012), two errant and devastating storms that visited the northeastern United States over the course of this project and personally affected the author. Thus, extreme weather provides a material entry point into the complex and far-reaching event of climate change, offering an opportunity to theorize transition and to reflect on what might be creatively recuperated from cross currents of climate and catastrophe. In conclusion, the thesis proposes an ontology inspired by the unique reproductive strategy of the mangrove plant that has thickly and extensively colonized the coastline of southern Florida and through which events are understood to possess qualities of latency, accrual and distribution and to give rise to a future that is germinal, a present that is continuously resignified and a past that remains profoundly creative.

Text in English / The study aimed to explore the coverage of environmental news by Zimbabwe‟s print media. The research is premised on the admission that the press covers environmental issues in their reportage. However, the study revealed that there are challenges obtaining in environmental reporting by the three weeklies, namely; Daily News on Sunday, The Financial Gazette, and The Sunday Mail. The use of content analysis and critical discourse analysis in analysing the environmental news stories helped to highlight the shortcomings of media houses and journalists as depicted by their choice of words or phrases, the inclusion as well as exclusion of certain viewpoints. The study analysed environmental news in themes such as imminent decimation of wildlife through poaching, climate change, violation of wetlands, destruction of forests, and land reclamation. To aid the understanding and appreciation of environmental reporting by the press, the study utilised three media theories, namely, agenda-setting, development media theory, and framing. Chapter one focused on introducing the context of the study, as well as justifying it, and adopted the qualitative research method for the study. Chapter two gave an extended review for the study. Chapter three provided the research methodology. Chapter four analysed environmental stories published by the Daily News on Sunday.Chapter five analysed environmental stories which were published in The Financial Gazette.Chapter six gave an analysis of environmental news published in The Sunday Mail. Chapter seven concluded the study by giving a summary of the central argument of the study which was that the Zimbabwean press fell short in effectively and efficiently sourcing, selecting and disseminating environmental news. The chapter proffered some recommendations which point to some areas which require further studies. / Communication Science / D. Litt. et Phil. (Communication)

xii, 172 p. A print copy of this thesis is available through the UO Libraries. Search the library catalog for the location and call number. / The literature indicates that for indigenous peoples the environmental impacts of climate change and some proposed solutions threaten lifeways, subsistence, economic ventures, future growth, cultural survivability, rights, land ownership, and access to resources. However, limited understanding and awareness of the vulnerability and capacity of American Indian and Alaska Native tribes and of climate change impacts at the local level affect climate policymaking, planning, and equity. Case studies with the Coquille and Hoopa Valley Indian tribes in the Pacific Northwest U.S. explore the key considerations in planning for climate change adaptation, particularly for cultural and natural resource resilience. Document analysis and semi-structured interviews offer insight on the risks the tribes face and the role of traditional and local knowledge and experience in planning for climate change adaptation. Conclusions offer information useful in planning for climate impacts, local-level climate adaptation research, and climate policy development at the local to global levels. / Committee in Charge: Dr. Michael Hibbard, Chair; Dr. Cassandra Moseley; Kathy Lynn

Climate change poses a major environmental challenge, due to its adverse effects on human settlement patterns and food security. The global phenomenon upsets seasonal shifts, leading to changes in planting dates and weather patterns. This unpredictability has severe and adverse effects on farmers and rural communities, as variable environmental factors govern activities related to daily sustenance and food availability. The kind of rapid and intense climate change that South African rural spaces are experiencing now, increase the likelihood of extreme weather events such as droughts, heat waves and floods. There are growing concerns that the rural poor will be unable to adapt. Rural livelihoods are therefore facing overwhelming and extensive environmental threats, while rural dwellers are finding it difficult to adapt and cope. As a result, climate change can thus be described as one of the most complex and dangerous environmental problems challenging rural livelihoods today. The aim of this study was to explore the impact of climate change on rural poverty at Binfield village in the Eastern Cape and to identify the livelihood activities practiced. Furthermore, the research was conducted to ascertain how rural livelihood activities are affected by climate change and identify and assess the effectiveness of adaption strategies employed by the households. The research also aimed to explore and establish further adaptation strategies. This study made use of a qualitative research method. Babooa (2008) argues that qualitative research is concerned with stories and accounts including subjective understandings, feelings, opinions and beliefs. The study used both primary and secondary data for data. The researcher adopted interviews and field observation for primary data whilst secondary data was sourced from journals, articles and internet sources. O‘ Leary (2004) describes the interview as a method of collecting data where the interviewer asks the Interviewee open-ended questions. The questions were based on the key areas of interest. Qualitative research methods are aimed at understanding the rich, complex characteristic nature of human phenomena. Qualitative methods are concerned with understanding human behaviour from the participant‘s own frame of reference.

Orientadores: Luci Hidalgo Nunes, Christian Pfister / Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Geociências / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-21T15:40:51Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Araki_Ricardo_D.pdf: 3861461 bytes, checksum: 37262bd50f9c4575fdfea9afa2e03e46 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012 / Resumo: Esta pesquisa teve por objetivo reconstruir a historia climática do estado de São Paulo, desde sua colonização européia até o inicio do século 20. Fontes históricas de diferentes naturezas como jornais, diarios, almanaques, cartas, relatos de viagens, entre outros foram consultadas no intuito de comprovar hipótese que manifestações da Pequena Idade do Gelo, que entre os séculos 14 e 19 afetaram sensivelmente as sociedades do Hemisfério Norte, teriam também sido sentidas no território paulista. Mais de 7 mil consultas foram feitas, resultando em 1355 registros sobre tempo e clima entre 1550 e 1927, que após serem revisadas possibilitaram sistematizar 685 eventos que contêm claramente a data, local e descrição do fenômeno climático. A quantidade de registros mencionando frio, temperaturas baixas e geadas praticamente se equipara aos registros sobre chuvas, sendo também mais que o dobro do número de informações sobre calor, corroborando a hipótese de que também no estado de São Paulo o período atual tem sido menos frio do que o passado / Abstract: This research aimed to reconstruct the climatic history of São Paulo State, from the colonial period to the beginning of the 20 century. Distinct historical sources like journals, diaries, almanacs, letters, expedition records, among others, were consulted to verify the hypothesis, i.e., that manifestations of the Little Ice Age, which significantly affected the Northern Hemisphere societies between 14 and 19 century, were also experienced in the territory of São Paulo. More than 7,000 queries were made, resulting in 1,355 weather and climate records between the years of 1550 and 1927, which were revised and then systematized into 685 events that contain clearly date, localization and the phenomenon description. The quantity of data mentioning cold, low temperatures and frosts is practically the same of the number of records of rain, and more than twice of warm events, reinforcing the hypothesis that also in São Paulo the current period has been less cold than the past / Doutorado / Análise Ambiental e Dinâmica Territorial / Doutor em Ciências

The world is becoming more complex due to the increasing occurrence of social-ecological change. This is particularly evident in the developing world, especially on the African continent, where existing vulnerabilities (i.e. endemic poverty, weak governance, overpopulation and HIV/AIDS) are being exacerbated by the impact of climate change. Climate change poses a very real threat to millions of Africans, especially those who rely on the natural world for their livelihoods. The increasing variability of climate and rainfall patterns are said to have dire consequences on agricultural production which is the main livelihood activity of rural dwellers across the continent. The impacts of such change and variability include, changes in the frequency and intensity of droughts, flooding and heavy storms, leading to worsening soil conditions, desertification as well as disease and pest out-breaks which will likely result in reduced crop and livestock yields. A reduction in agricultural production will likely have a negative effect on the food security of millions of people. This study was conducted in the Eastern Cape of South Africa, in two rural villages, Fairbairn and Ntloko located in the former Ciskei homeland, with the purpose of exploring the nexus between climate change, cultivation and food security. This study combined social-ecological thinking with that of political ecology to create a robust lens, in which to analyse the complex interactions between humans and the environment. A mixed methods approach was used to gather the data which consisted of a household survey, using a structured questionnaire as well as semi-structured interviews with various respondents. Quantitative data were analysed using Excel and Statistica 13, whilst coding was used for qualitative data. The main aim of the study was to explore the extent and characteristics of cultivation in the two study sites, the role of household food production in food security as well as the challenges that local cultivator’s face with regards to climate change. In recent decades, there has been a decline in rural agricultural production with many fields that were previously cultivated, lying vacant and unused. However, as this study found, cultivation is still important as over 50% of sampled households cultivated a small area within the homestead. This was mainly done to supplement household food expenditure in order to save cash incomes. The results also found that although participants had perceived negative changes in climate and rainfall (amount, onset, duration), it was not considered the most important challenge for own production. Rather, lack of fencing and capital were seen as major hindrances to efficient own production. Understanding the complexity of own production and food security under a changing climate can help form better and more resilient policies and strategies for rural development, in addition to strengthening future livelihoods of rural people in an ever changing world.

Research leading to this thesis aims to assess the policy relevant mitigation potential of Indian forests as well as aims to assess the impact of climate change on carbon stocks, vegetation boundary shifts, Net Primary Productivity (NPP) and the mitigation potential of Indian forests. To project the impact of climate change we chose a dynamic global vegetation model ‘Integrated Biosphere Simulator’ (IBIS V.2.6b4). We selected A2 and B2 scenarios for projecting the impacts. Mitigation potential was assessed using the ‘Generalized Comprehensive Mitigation Assessment Process’ (GCOMAP) model. We assess the mitigation potential of Indian forests in the light of India’s long-term policy objective of bringing 33% of its total geographical area under forest cover. We analyzed the mitigation potential of this policy objective under two scenarios: the first comprising of rapid afforestation scenario with the target to achieving the goal by 2020 and the second a moderate afforestation scenario in which this goal is achieved by 2030. We estimate that afforestation could offset about 9% of India’s average national emissions over the 2010-2030 period, while about 6.7% could be mitigated under the moderate afforestation scenario over the same period. We analyze the impact of climate change on the four key attributes of Indian forests, i.e. impact on vegetation distribution, impact on forest productivity (NPP), impact on soil carbon (SOC) and impact on biomass carbon. IBIS simulations suggest that approximately 39% and 34% of forest grids are projected to experience change in vegetation type under A2 and B2 climate scenarios, respectively over the period 2070¬2100. Simulations further indicate that NPP is projected to increase by an average of 66% under the A2 scenario and 49% under the B2 scenario. The increase is higher in the northeastern part of India. However, in the central and western Indian forests NPP remains stable or increases only moderately, and in some places even decreases. Our assessment of the impact of climate change on Soil Organic Carbon (SOC) suggests a trend similar to NPP distribution, which is to be expected as increased NPP is the primary driver of higher litter input to the soil. However, the quantum of increase in this case is lower, around 37% and 30%, for the A2 and B2 scenario respectively (averaged over India). The biomass carbon is also projected to increase all over India on the lines similar to NPP gains. However, projected gains in biomass, NPP and SOC should be viewed with caution as IBIS tends to simulate a fairly strong CO2 fertilization effect that may not necessarily be realized under conditions of nutrient and water limitations and under conditions of increased pest and fire outbreaks. Further we analyzed the impact of climate change on the mitigation potential of Indian forests by linking impact assessment models to mitigation potential assessment model GCOMAP. Two impact assessment models BIOME4 and IBIS are used for simulating the impact of climate change. IBIS is a dynamic vegetation model while BIOME4 is an equilibrium model. Our assessment suggests that with the BIOME4 simulations the cumulative mitigation potential increases by up to 21% under the A2 scenario over the period 2008 to 2108, whereas, under the B2 scenario the mitigation potential increases only by 14% over the same period. However cumulative mitigation potential estimates obtained from the IBIS simulations suggest much smaller gains, where mitigation potential increases by only 6% and 5% over the period 2008 to 2108, under A2 and B2 scenarios respectively. To enable effective policy analysis and to build a synergy between the mitigation and adaptation efforts in the Indian forest sector, a vulnerability index for the forested grids is constructed. The vulnerability index is based on the premise that forests in India are already subjected to multiple stresses including over extraction, insect outbreaks, live¬stock grazing, forest fires and other anthropogenic pressures -with climate change being an additional stress. The forest vulnerability index suggests that nearly 39% of the forest grids in India are projected to be vulnerable to the impacts of climate change under the A2 scenario, while 34% of the forest grids are projected to be vulnerable under the B2 scenario. The vulnerability index suggests that forests in the central part of India, a significant part of the western Himalayan forests and northern and central parts of the Western Ghats are particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Forests in the northeastern part of India are seemingly resilient to the impacts of climate change. It also suggests that given the high deforestation rate in northeast, this region be prioritized for reducing deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) projects under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) mechanisms.

Thesis (M. Sc. (Statistics)) -- University of Limpopo, 2021 / The effects of ozone depletion on climate change has, in recent years, become a reality, impacting on changes in rainfall patterns and severity of extreme floods or extreme droughts. The majority of people across the entire African continent live in semi-arid and drought-prone areas. Extreme droughts are prevalent in Somalia and eastern Africa, while life-threatening floods are common in Mozambique and some parts of other SADC (Southern African Development Community) countries. Research has cautioned that climate change in South Africa might lead to increased temperatures and reduced amounts of rainfall, thereby altering their timing and putting more pressure on the country’s scarce water resources, with implications for agriculture, employment and food security. The average annual rainfall for South Africa is about 464mm, falling far below the average annual global rainfall of 860mm. The Limpopo Province, which is one of the nine provinces in South Africa, and of interest to this study, is predominantly agrarian, basically relying on availability of water, with rainfall being the major source for water supply. It is, therefore, pertinent that the rainfall pattern in the province be monitored effectively to ascertain the rainy period for farming activities and other uses. Modelling and forecasting rainfall have been studied for a long time worldwide. However, from time to time, researchers are always looking for new models that can predict rainfall more accurately in the midst of climate change and capture the underlying dynamics such as seasonality and the trend, attributed to rainfall. This study employed Exponetial Smoothing (ETS) State Space and Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models and compared their forecasting ability using root mean square error (RMSE). Both models were used to capture the sporadic behaviour of rainfall. These two models have been widely applied to climatic data by many scholars and adjudged to perform creditably well. In an attempt to find a suitable prediction model for monthly rainfall patterns in Limpopo Province, data ranging from January 1900 to December 2015, for seven weather stations: Macuville Agriculture, Mara Agriculture, Marnits, Groendraal, Letaba, Pietersburg Hospital and Nebo, were analysed. The results showed that the two models were adequate in predicting rainfall patterns for the different stations in the Limpopo Province. / National Research Foundation (NRF)

In the Portland, Oregon, metropolitan area, suburban cities such as Hillsboro are projected to grow as people seek affordable housing near a rapidly growing metropolis. This thesis examines the combined impact of'c1imate change and urban development on both neighborhood and municipal scale residential water demand in Hillsboro, Oregon. I use two models, a surface energy balance model, Local-scale Urban Meteorological Parameterization Scheme (LUMPS), and a system dynamics model, CCDomestic, to investigate changes in residential water demand in the 2040s at two distinct spatial scales, the neighborhood and the municipality. I calibrate and validate each model to the reference period and then simulate the future (2030-2059) under three statistically downscaled global climate models and two urban development scenarios. The findings of this study indicate that climate change and urban development will not evenly affect water consumption in neighborhoods across a city. Instead, the current land cover and residential density of a neighborhood exert an important influence on the response. Heavily vegetated neighborhoods exhibit large increases in water demand under urban sprawl and warming scenarios, while neighborhoods dominated by impervious surfaces decrease water consumption under sprawl scenarios and show little change in water consumption under combined sprawl and warming scenarios. At the municipal scale findings suggest that water demand is highly sensitive to urban design and management and that the combination of urban densification and water conservation regulations could mitigate increases in water consumption from population growth and climate change.