Predicting how increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration will affect the hydrologic cycle is of utmost importance for water resource management, ecological systems and for human life and activities. A typical perspective is that the water cycle will mostly be altered by atmospheric effects of climate change, precipitation and radiation, and that the land surface will adjust accordingly. Terrestrial processes can however feedback significantly on the hydrologic changes themselves. Vegetation is indeed at the center of the carbon, water and energy nexus. This work investigates the processes, the timing and the geography of these feedbacks. Using Earth System Models simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5), with decoupled surface (vegetation physiology) and atmospheric (radiative) responses to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, we first evaluate the individual contribution of precipitation, radiation and physiological forcings for several key hydrological variables. Over the largest fraction of the globe the physiological response indeed not only impacts, but also dominates the change in the continental hydrologic cycle compared to either radiative or precipitation changes due to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. It is however complicated to draw any conclusion for the soil moisture as it exhibits a particularly nonlinear response. The physiological feedbacks are especially important for extreme temperature events. The 2003 European heat wave is an interesting and crucial case study, as extreme heat waves are anticipated to become more frequent and more severe with increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. The soil moisture and land-atmosphere feedbacks were responsible for the severity of this episode unique for this region. Instead of focusing on statistical change, we use the framework of Regional Climate Modeling to simulate this specific event under higher levels of surface atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and to assess how this heat wave could be altered by land-atmosphere interactions in the future. Increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration modifies the seasonality of the water cycle through stomatal regulation and increased leaf area. As a result, the water saved during the growing season through higher water use efficiency mitigates summer dryness and the heat wave impact. Land-atmosphere interactions and carbon dioxide fertilization together synergistically contribute to increased summer transpiration if rainfall does not change. This, in turn, alters the surface energy budget and decreases sensible heat flux, mitigating air temperature rise during extreme heat periods. This soil moisture feedback, which is mediated and enabled by the vegetation on a seasonal scale is a European example of the impacts the vegetation could have in an atmosphere enriched in carbon dioxide. We again use Earth System Models to systematically and statistically investigate the influence of the vegetation feedbacks on the global and regional changes of extreme temperatures. Physiological effects typically contribute to the increase of the annual daily maximum temperature with increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, accounting for around 15% of the full trend by the end of the XXIth Century. Except in Northern latitudes, the annual daily maximum temperature increases at a faster pace than the mean temperature, which is reinforced by vegetation feedbacks in Europe but reduced in North America. This work highlights the key role of vegetation in influencing future terrestrial hydrologic responses. Accurate representation of the response to higher atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration levels, and of the coupling between the carbon and water cycles are therefore critical to forecasting seasonal climate, water cycle dynamics and to enhance the accuracy of extreme event prediction under future climates in various regions of the globe.

As the role of cities in addressing climate change has been increasingly recognized over the past two decades, the idea of a low-carbon city becomes a dominant framework to organize urban governance and envision a sustainable urban future. It also becomes a development discourse in the less developed world to guide the ongoing urbanization process. China’s efforts toward building low-carbon cities have been inspiring at first and then obscured by the halt or total failure of famous mega-projects, leading to a conclusion that Chinese low-carbon cities compose merely a strategy of green branding for promoting local economy. This conclusion, however, largely neglects the profound implications of the decarbonization discourse for the dynamics between the central and local governments, which together determine the rules and resources for development practices. The conclusion also hinders the progressive potentials of the decarbonization discourse in terms of introducing new values and norms to urban governance. This dissertation approaches “low-carbon cities” as a part of the decarbonization discourse and employs a discourse-institutional analysis to investigate the relationships between discourse, institutional arrangement, and socio-political resources for development activities. Through an examination of the Shenzhen International Low-Carbon City (SILCC), the dissertation answers three questions: (1) How does the framework of a low-carbon city affect a specific urban development project? (2) What is the role of the state (local/national) in promoting low-carbon development? and (3) What is the influence of the decarbonization discourse on institutions and norms of urban governance? Evidence was gathered during 2014-2017 from three fieldtrips, 39 interviews and the review of government documents and other archives. The dissertation highlights how different levels of government became entangled in developing a local area and how, in doing so, the proponents continuously searched for ways of ‘positioning’ their initiative in discourses that would attract higher level government support, maintain local coalitions, and entice international attention and investment. In this regard, low-carbon cities are a state discursive project. Rather than an established material goal, a low-carbon city is an evolving process in which the decarbonization discourse introduces a new set of values, metrics and governing logics into development practices and redefines the legitimacy and accountability of urban development. Furthermore, the local state leverages the interpretive flexibility within the decarbonization discourse through strategies including carbon labeling, weak carbonization, and carbon exceptionalism. Consequently, the state takes a strategic position to reconfigure the state-society as well as the environment-economy relationships.

No description available.

The category 'sublime', when applied to the natural world, has long been associated in Western culture, with extremes of vastness and power. When encountered, that which is deemed sublime, by virtue of these qualities, has the effect of overwhelming the mind, such that it is thrown simultaneously into a state of astonishment, admiration and horror. We are both humbled and elevated by what we behold and momentarily struck dumb, such that, in its Kantian formulation, our appreciation of that which we take to be sublime, granted us through the powers of reason, has the effect of ennobling us, as moral beings. The concept of the sublime has continuously evolved from its classical origins right up to its present day post-modern formulations. The diversity of its forms suggests that the sublime can be regarded as polythetic. My thesis examines, how, through its different formulations, the sublime may be meaningfully applied to our perceptions of present day climate change, and the different implications arising from these applications. My thesis asks: what is the sublime of climate change? When we look at climate change through the lens of the sublime, what do we see, and what is obscured? What is the effect on us, of opening ourselves to climate change as sublime? What implications might the sublime of climate change have for the future direction of society and therefore for the construction of climate policy and for its communication? Original research, in the form of in-depth, unstructured, one to one interviews was conducted among senior climate scientists, business leaders and policy makers, writers and academics, inviting them to explore the theme of climate change, science and the sublime. My thesis findings are derived from my analysis of these discussions.

大量學術文獻指出氣候變化是毫不含糊地由持續增加的人為溫室氣體排放所造成。其中，二氧化碳排放（碳排放）是最為重要的溫室氣體排放。碳排放和經濟發展之間的密切關係亦受到廣泛肯定。碳排放和收入之間的關係引起了研究人員的極大興趣。學者們對該關係的環境庫茲涅茨曲線（一個倒U形曲線）的有效性持有不同的觀點，該曲線之有效性的討論可以分為兩部分，即時間和空間（國家）的尺度。 / 在這項研究中，首先以描述性統計研究碳排放量的變化，其中包括排放總量，人均排放量和碳強度三個指標。然後，透過雙對數和二次雙對數回歸模型進一步研究這三項指標和各經濟發展指標的關係（經濟發展指標包括總量和人均國內生產總值，貿易值和產業值）。結果指出國內生產總值可以很好地解釋碳排放之變化。根據1970年到2007年的數據，排放總量和國內生產總值總量在雙對數回歸模型中呈現顯著的線性關係。同樣在雙對數回歸模型中，人均排放量和人均國內生產總值之間的關係則從顯著線性變成顯著二次（倒U形曲線），從而支持環境庫茲涅茨曲線理論。碳強度和人均國內生產總值之間的關係是顯著的倒U形曲線。所有研究國家的回歸結果指出，發達國家在經濟增長的同時，已經減少排放總量及人均量，而發展中國家沒有減少。大多數發達國家在碳強度和人均國內生產總值的關係上呈現顯著的負相關，而發展中國家在碳強度和人均國內生產總值之間的關係上比例平均。在一般情況下，其他因素如貿易值和產業值解釋碳排放變化之能力較國內生產總值差。較特別的結果是由於製造、礦業和公用事業產業值屬於高碳密集性，該產業能很好地解釋碳排放的變化，所以為該產業的度身訂造之減排控制是必要的。 / 進一步說，發展中國家之間的差異仍然很大。透過層次聚類法，所有國家基於排放水平可分成11個類。其中，第11類主要包括發達國家，擁有極高的排放總量，非常高的人均排放量和中等的碳強度。與此同時，第4類主要包括發展中國家，亦有非常高的總排放量，中等的人均排放量和極高的碳強度。美國和中國，分別為第11類和第4類的案例研究，這兩國能有效地幫助了解碳排放和經濟發展之相互關係。其他集群則代表不同的經濟發展階段。聚類分析的結果可作為未來國際氣候變化政策建設的參考。 / Wealth of scholarly reviewed literatures indicates that climate change is unequivocally caused by the continual increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions. Carbon dioxide emissions remain to be of upmost importance among all GHGs emissions. It is widely accepted that close relationship between carbon dioxide emissions and economic development exists. The relationship between carbon dioxide emissions and income, in particular, has aroused much research interests. Researchers have polarizing views on the validity of Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC), an inverted U-shaped curve of that relationship. The ground of argumentation for the validity of EKC can be also divided into two parts, namely temporal and spatial (national) extents. / In this research, variations in three indicators of carbon dioxide emissions, including total emissions, per capita emissions and carbon intensity (CI), are firstly examined by descriptive statistics. Next, double-log and quadratic double-log regression models are employed to study the relationship between these three indicators and indicators of economic development (including the total and per capita GDP, trade values and sectoral values). Results show that GDP has high explanatory power for the large variation of emissions. By using the data from 1970 to 2007, the relationship between total emissions and total GDP is significantly linear in double-log regression models. The relationship between per capita emissions and per capita GDP has changed from linear to quadratic (inverted U-shaped), which supports the EKC. The relationship between CI and per capita GDP is significant in an inverted U-shaped curve. Regression results in each country indicate that developed countries have reduced total and per capita emissions in parallel with economic growth while developing countries have not. Majority of developed countries have negative relationship between CI and per capita GDP; whereas their counterparts have even proportion in the relationships. Other explanatory factors, like trade values and sectoral values, in general, have lower explanatory power than GDP. Surprisingly, results indicated that manufacturing, mining and utility (MMU) sector yields very high explanatory power for the variation of carbon dioxide emissions due to the sector’s high carbon-intensive nature. Tailor-made control on this sector is necessary for emissions abatement. / Furthermore, as the variation within developing countries is still large, countries are classified into clusters on the basis of their levels of emissions by Hierarchical Cluster Analysis. Eleven clusters are formed. Among all, cluster 11, comprised of mostly developed countries, yields extremely high total emissions, very high per capita emissions and medium CI. Meanwhile, cluster 4, made of mostly developing countries, have very high total emissions, medium per capita emissions and extremely high CI. The USA and China, case studies of clusters 11 and 4 respectively, have provided insight for the interactive relationship between emissions and economic development. Remaining clusters represent different stages of economic development. The results of the clustering can serve as a reference for the construction of future climate change policy. / Detailed summary in vernacular field only. / Detailed summary in vernacular field only. / Detailed summary in vernacular field only. / Wong, Wai Fung. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2012. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 273-280). / Electronic reproduction. Hong Kong : Chinese University of Hong Kong, [2012] System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader. Available via World Wide Web. / Abstracts also in Chinese. / ABSTRACT --- p.i / 摘錄 --- p.iii / ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS --- p.iv / TABLE OF CONTENTS --- p.v / LIST OF TABLES --- p.x / LIST OF FIGURES --- p.xix / LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS --- p.xxiv / Chapter CHAPTER ONE: --- INTRODUCTION --- p.1 / Chapter 1.1 --- EFFECTS OF CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS ON CLIMATE CHANGE --- p.1 / Chapter 1.2 --- VARIATION IN CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS AMONG COUNTRIES IN TERMS OF THREE INDICATORS: TOTAL AMOUNT, PER CAPITA AMOUNT AND CARBON INTENSITY (CI) --- p.3 / Chapter 1.3 --- RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT --- p.6 / Chapter 1.4 --- RESEARCH QUESTIONS --- p.8 / Chapter 1.5 --- RESEARCH OBJECTIVES --- p.8 / Chapter 1.6 --- SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY --- p.9 / Chapter 1.7 --- ORGANIZATION OF THE THESIS --- p.10 / Chapter CHAPTER TWO: --- LITERATURE REVIEW --- p.12 / Chapter 2.1 --- CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS --- p.12 / Chapter 2.1.1 --- Definitions of carbon dioxide emissions --- p.12 / Chapter 2.1.2 --- Estimation of carbon dioxide emissions --- p.13 / Chapter 2.1.3 --- Importance of carbon dioxide emissions in the context of climate change --- p.15 / Chapter 2.2 --- ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT --- p.19 / Chapter 2.2.1 --- Concept and different stages of economic development --- p.19 / Chapter 2.2.2 --- Indicators of economic development among all countries --- p.20 / Chapter 2.2.3 --- Economic development since 1970 in major countries --- p.23 / Chapter 2.3 --- PAST STUDIES ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT --- p.30 / Chapter 2.3.1 --- Relationship between emissions and income expressed by GDP --- p.30 / Chapter 2.3.2 --- Relationship between emissions and international trade expressed by export and import values --- p.38 / Chapter 2.3.3 --- Relationship between emissions and sectoral composition expressed by sectoral values --- p.43 / Chapter 2.4 --- RESEARCH GAPS IN THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT --- p.44 / Chapter 2.4.1 --- Identification of relationship between emissions and economic development --- p.44 / Chapter 2.4.2 --- Classification of countries based on the amount of carbon dioxide emissions --- p.46 / Chapter 2.4.3 --- Research plan for this study --- p.47 / Chapter 2.5 --- SUMMARY OF THE LITERATURE REVIEW --- p.48 / Chapter CHAPTER THREE: --- CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK, DATA SOURCE AND METHODOLOGY --- p.49 / Chapter 3.1 --- INTRODUCTION OF THE CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK --- p.49 / Chapter 3.2 --- RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS UNDER THE CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK --- p.50 / Chapter 3.3 --- INTRODUCTION TO THE INDICATORS OF THE CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK --- p.51 / Chapter 3.4 --- RELATIONSHIPS AMONG THE COMPONENTS --- p.53 / Chapter 3.4.1 --- Relationship between income and carbon dioxide emissions --- p.53 / Chapter 3.4.2 --- Relationship between international trade and carbon dioxide emissions --- p.54 / Chapter 3.4.3 --- Relationship between sectoral composition and carbon dioxide emissions --- p.54 / Chapter 3.5 --- EXAMINATION OF THE RELATIONSHIP IN SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL EXTENT --- p.54 / Chapter 3.6 --- DATA SOURCE --- p.57 / Chapter 3.6.1 --- Data source for the indicators of economic development and population --- p.57 / Chapter 3.6.2 --- Data source for the indicators of carbon dioxide emissions --- p.58 / Chapter 3.7 --- METHODOLOGY --- p.59 / Chapter 3.7.1 --- Variables used in the research --- p.59 / Chapter 3.7.2 --- Methodology used in the research --- p.60 / Chapter 3.8 --- SUMMURY OF THE CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK, DATA SOURCE AND METHODOLOGY --- p.63 / Chapter CHAPTER FOUR: --- VARIATIONS IN THE LEVELS OF INDICATORS OF CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS AND INDICATORS OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT --- p.65 / Chapter 4.1 --- VARIATIONS IN CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS, POPULATION AND GDP --- p.65 / Chapter 4.1.1 --- Variation in total carbon dioxide emissions --- p.65 / Chapter 4.1.2 --- Variation in total population --- p.72 / Chapter 4.1.3 --- Variation in total GDP --- p.75 / Chapter 4.1.4 --- Variation in per capita carbon dioxide emissions --- p.79 / Chapter 4.1.5 --- Variation in per capita GDP --- p.83 / Chapter 4.1.6 --- Variation in CI --- p.87 / Chapter 4.2 --- VARIATIONS IN INTERNATIONAL TRADE VALUES AND SECTORAL VALUES --- p.91 / Chapter 4.2.1 --- Variation in total export values --- p.91 / Chapter 4.2.2 --- Variation in total import values --- p.94 / Chapter 4.2.3 --- Variation in per capita export values --- p.96 / Chapter 4.2.4 --- Variation in per capita import values --- p.99 / Chapter 4.2.5 --- Variation in trade balance --- p.102 / Chapter 4.2.6 --- Variation in total sectoral values --- p.104 / Chapter 4.2.7 --- Variation in per capita sectoral values --- p.106 / Chapter 4.2.8 --- Variation in sectoral composition --- p.107 / Chapter 4.3 --- SUMMARY ON THE VARIATIONS IN THE LEVELS OF INDICATORS OF CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS AND INDICATORS OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT --- p.109 / Chapter CHAPTER FIVE: --- RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN INDICATORS OF CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS AND INDICATORS OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT --- p.112 / Chapter 5.1 --- RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS AND INCOME IN TERMS OF TOTAL AMOUNT, PER CAPITA AMOUNT AND CARBON INTENSITY --- p.112 / Chapter 5.1.1 --- Relationship between total carbon dioxide emissions and total GDP --- p.112 / Chapter 5.1.2 --- Relationship between per capita carbon dioxide emissions and per capita GDP --- p.123 / Chapter 5.1.3 --- Relationship between CI and per capita GDP --- p.133 / Chapter 5.2 --- RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS AND INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN TERMS OF TOTAL AMOUNT, PER CAPITA AMOUNT AND CARBON INTENSITY --- p.142 / Chapter 5.2.1 --- Relationship between total carbon dioxide emissions and total values of exports and imports --- p.142 / Chapter 5.2.2 --- Relationship between per capita carbon dioxide emissions and per capita values of exports and imports --- p.146 / Chapter 5.2.3 --- Relationship between CI and per capita values of exports and imports . --- p.151 / Chapter 5.3 --- RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS AND SECTORAL COMPOSITION IN TERMS OF TOTAL AMOUNT, PER CAPITA AMOUNT AND CARBON INTENSITY --- p.157 / Chapter 5.3.1 --- Relationship between of total carbon dioxide emissions and total values of six sectors --- p.157 / Chapter 5.3.2 --- Relationship between per capita carbon dioxide emissions and per capita values of six sectors --- p.160 / Chapter 5.3.3 --- Relationship between CI and per capita values of six sectors --- p.163 / Chapter 5.3.4 --- Relationship between indicators of carbon dioxide emissions and ratios of sectoral values to the sum of all sectors --- p.165 / Chapter 5.4 --- SUMMARY ON THE RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN INDICATORS OF CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS AND INDICATORS OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT --- p.168 / Chapter CHAPTER SIX: --- CLASSIFICATION OF COUNTRIES BASED ON THE LEVELS OF TOTAL CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS, PER CAPITA CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS AND CARBON INTENSITY --- p.171 / Chapter 6.1 --- CORRELATION ANALYSIS BETWEEN TOTAL EMISSIONS, PER CAPITA EMISSIONS AND CARBON INTENSITY --- p.171 / Chapter 6.2 --- MEMBERSHIP OF COUNTRIES AND BASIC CHARACTERISTICS OF EACH CLUSTER --- p.173 / Chapter 6.2.1 --- Result of Hierarchical Cluster Analysis and membership of countries --- p.173 / Chapter 6.2.2 --- Characteristics of each cluster in terms of carbon dioxide emissions --- p.176 / Chapter 6.2.3 --- Characteristics of each cluster in terms of GDP (indicator of economic development) --- p.180 / Chapter 6.3 --- IN-DEPTH EXAMINATION OF THE CHARACTERISTICS OF EACH CLUSTER --- p.184 / Chapter 6.3.1 --- Clusters with extremely high to very high total emissions: clusters 11 and 4 --- p.185 / Chapter 6.3.2 --- Clusters with high total emissions: clusters 8, 10 and 3 --- p.211 / Chapter 6.3.3 --- Clusters with medium to low total emissions: clusters 9, 2 and 1 --- p.230 / Chapter 6.3.4 --- Clusters with very low to extremely low total emissions: clusters 5, 6 and 7 --- p.247 / Chapter 6.4 --- SUMMARY OF THE RESULTS --- p.263 / Chapter CHAPTER SEVEN: --- CONCLUSION --- p.267 / Chapter 7.1 --- MAJOR FINDINGS OF THE RESEARCH --- p.267 / Chapter 7.2 --- IMPLICATIONS OF THE RESEARCH --- p.270 / Chapter 7.3 --- LIMITATIONS OF THE RESEACH --- p.271 / Chapter 7.4 --- RECOMMENDATION FOR FUTURE RESEARCH --- p.272 / REFERENCES --- p.273 / APPENDICES --- p.281

This thesis examines the linkages between social protection and resilience to climate change among poor rural households. To date there is a very limited understanding of the potential role of social protection programmes in contributing to an increase in resilience of the rural poor with respect to climate change. An improved understanding of these links can help to build the knowledge base that is needed to help the poorest members of the society to adapt to the impacts of climate change. This gap in understanding is addressed in this thesis through a case study of the conditional cash transfer programme Oportunidades in two rural communities in Yucatan, Mexico, a region highly exposed to hurricanes and droughts. Qualitative and quantitative data were collected by means of household surveys, life-history interviews, key informant interviews, group discussions and participant observation. A social protection-resilience analytical framework was developed in order to guide the data collection and analysis. This framework is informed by a dynamic understanding of resilience, which integrates two resilience dimensions: the absorptive capacity (the ability to resist and recover from a shock) and the adaptive capacity (the ability to adapt to the effects of a shock). This framework is based on the proposition that social protection reduces vulnerability and, by doing so, this can also help to increase poor households resilience to climate change. The thesis found that the main role of Oportunidades is to provide a regular and predictable safety net that protects households from short-term risk, thus increasing households' absorptive capacity. The impact on the adaptive capacity of households is indirect and differentiated according to their respective poverty profiles. Furthermore, the research shows that certain features of the theory of change of Oportunidades, and its design, reduce the potential impact of the programme, creating trade-offs between the different resilience dimensions. This is the case because resilience to climate change and social protection literatures are derived from distinctive approaches, which frame vulnerability differently. The thesis concludes by making a case for social protection to be complemented by other interventions in a systemic approach that should explicitly consider climate change, in order to increase resilience and achieve sustainable poverty reduction.

Education has contributed to a society-wide awareness of environmental issues, and we are increasingly confronted with the need for new ways to generate energy, save water and reduce pollution. Thus new forms of work are emerging and government, employers and educators need to know what ‘green’ skills South Africa needs and has. This creates a new demand for ‘green skills’ research. We propose that this new knowledge field – like some other educational fields – requires a transformative approach to research methodology. In conducting reviews of existing research, we found that a transformative approach requires a reframing of key concepts commonly used in researching work and learning; multi-layered, mixed method studies; researching within and across diverse knowledge fields including non-traditional fields; and both newly configured national platforms and new conceptual frameworks to help us integrate coherently across these. Critical realism is presented as a helpful underpinning for such conceptual frameworks, and implications for how universities prepare educational researchers are flagged.

Background: Mosquito-borne diseases are a growing concern for temperate regions including the northeastern US. There the two primary mosquito vectors, Cx. pipiens and Ae. albopictus are widespread, endemic circulation of West Nile virus causes sporadic outbreaks, and imported arboviruses such as dengue, chikungunya, and Zika are on the rise. With temperate mosquito-borne disease outbreaks likely to increase in frequency, it is critical to reduce mosquito populations in the northeastern US. Community-based source reduction is heralded as the most sustainable component of integrated mosquito management. Yet mosquitoes develop rapidly, requiring weekly maintenance of mosquito habitat. This is onerous and community commitment flags. The development of predictive models to inform focused vector-control efforts is therefore of great utility. Objectives and Methods: The overarching objective of this research is to make robust predictive modeling frameworks based on empirically derived relationships of the ecology and epidemiology of mosquito-borne disease systems in the northeastern US. We aim to quantify the relationships between local environmental and meteorological conditions and mosquito vectors. In Chapters 2 and 4 we use lengthy surveillance records to develop models and use model ensembles to generate predictions based on out-of-sample data. For chapter 3 we use more spatially refined data to investigate the influence of intra-urban heterogeneities and how climatic conditions influence mosquito populations across these defined differences. Results: In Chapter 2, we model and forecast WNV infection rates among mosquito vectors using meteorological and hydrological conditions. We show that real-time climate information can predict WNV Culex infection rates prior to when human risk is greatest. In Chapter 3, we link infrastructure degradation and vegetation patterns with Ae. albopictus infestation levels as well as the interactive effect of precipitation across these environmental conditions. In Chapter 4, we identify key land use characteristics and meteorological conditions associated with annual Ae. albopictus abundance. Further we use imported chikungunya cases to delineate areas of high arboviral importation and, in combination with areas of high Ae. albopictus abundance, areas at heightened risk for arboviral transmission. Conclusions: While temperate outbreaks are often self-limiting they may be increasing in frequency and severity. Due to the multitude of invasive vectors and arboviruses, vector control techniques that work for multiple mosquito species are likely more effective and sustainable. Here we build build empirical models that accurately predict mosquito dynamics before populations peak which is critical for vector control. We recommend integrating predictive modeling into mosquito management guidelines as this could focus valuable resources to when and where mosquito-borne transmission risk is greatest. Further we find social and ecological determinants of mosquito dynamics, supporting further study that combine socio-ecological processes into model frameworks.

Climate models predict changes to the frequency and intensity of extreme events, with large effects on tropical forests likely. Predicting these impacts requires understanding how landscape configuration and land-use change influence the susceptibility of forests to disturbances such as wind, drought, and fire. This is important because most tropical forests are regenerating from anthropogenic disturbance, and are located in landscape mosaics of forest, agriculture, and other land use. This dissertation consists of four chapters that combine remote sensing and field data to examine causes and consequences of disturbance and land-use change in tropical second-growth forests. In Chapter 1, I use satellite data to identify factors associated with permanence of second-growth forest, and assess how estimates of carbon sequestration vary under different assumptions about second-growth forest permanence. I show that most second-growth forest is cleared when young, limiting carbon sequestration. In Chapter 2, I combine data from weather stations, remote sensing, and landowner surveys to model fire activity on 732 farms in the study area over ten years. The relative importance of these factors differs across scales and depending on the metric of fire activity being considered, illustrating how implications for fire prevention and mitigation can be different depending on the metric considered. Chapter 3 combines Landsat imagery and field data to map wind damage from a severe convective storm, providing strong empirical evidence that vulnerability to wind disturbance is elevated in tropical forest fragments. Finally, in Chapter 4 I integrate annual forest census data with LiDAR-derived topography metrics and tree functional traits in a hierarchical Bayesian modeling framework to explore how drought, topography, and neighborhood crowding affect tree growth, and how functional traits modulate those effects. The results from these studies demonstrate innovative approaches to understanding spatial variation in forest vulnerability to disturbance at multiple scales, and the results have implications for managing forests in a changing climate.

This thesis represents the first comprehensive attempt at providing conceptual and scholarly coherence to the topic of stranded assets and the environment. Over the last five years the topic has risen up the agenda and has become of significant interest to scholars and practitioners alike, as it has influenced a number of pressing issues facing investors, companies, policymakers, regulators, and civil society in relation to global environmental change. The thesis reveals how the topic developed and emerged, notably through a unique first-person account based on autoethnography and close dialogue. Four self- contained papers demonstrate the wide applicability of stranded assets, and further existing, relatively well-developed literatures (namely carbon budgets and stranded costs) and also two much less developed literatures (namely the calibration of climate policy to minimise stranded assets and policy mechanisms to quickly and efficiently strand assets). Though a significant amount has been written on stranded assets over a short period, there remain significant gaps in the literature. The thesis identifies substantial research opportunities, particularly to better connect our understanding of physical and societal environment-related risks; to improve our knowledge of perception and behaviour in relation to the creation and management of stranded assets; to expand the scope of work into new sectors and geographies; and to place stranded assets in an appropriate historical perspective. Stranded assets is, if anything, a geographical concept. The thesis makes the case for economic geography as the disciplinary home for stranded assets. The sub-discipline can both contribute to the development of stranded assets as a scholarly endeavour and itself benefit from interacting with a topic that intersects with some of the most pressing contemporary issues related to environmental sustainability.