A thesis submitted to the Faculty of Science, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy The support of the Global Change and Sustainability Research Institute (GCSRI) towards this research is hereby acknowledged. Opinions expressed and conclusions arrived at, are those of the author and are not necessarily to be attributed to the GCSRI. February 2017 in Johannesburg, South Africa / Global change, specifically land cover change and climate change, are recognised as the leading drivers of biodiversity loss worldwide. Habitat loss has resulted in a loss of biodiversity and led to significant declines in species populations. Climate change is altering species distributions, ecosystem composition and phenology. Conservation planning is required to offset these dynamic threats to species persistence into the future. Plants form the basis of trophic structure and functioning and may not be able to track changing environmental conditions as well as mobile species. They thus represent an essential starting point for understanding climate change and habitat loss impacts. The patterns and processes which generate and maintain floristic diversity must be explored before global change impacts on these communities can be assessed and planned for at a landscape scale. This thesis investigates the environmental variables structuring indigenous plant community composition, pattern and turnover in grassland and savanna systems in KwaZulu-Natal. The threats posed by land cover change and climate change are explored and a coarse-grained landscape connectivity map developed to impart maximum resilience in order to maintain floristic diversity in the era of anthropogenically induced global change. The environmental variables correlated to floristic pattern and turnover were temperature, soil fertility and precipitation variables. The orientation of the temperature gradient conflicts with the soil fertility gradient, hence species with particular soil requirements will be hampered in their efforts to track the temperature gradient. The gradients were non-linear with turnover highest on dystrophic soils in warm and drier summer regions. The major drivers of land cover change were cropped agriculture, timber plantations (agroforestry), rural and urban development, dams and mines. The drivers of change differed according to land tenure type. The average rate of habitat loss in the province over an 18 year period was 1.2% per annum, levels which are considered unsustainable. A target level of 50% of natural habitat remaining is recommended. Environmental domains were identified using the environmental correlates of plant community composition. These were used to investigate climate change impacts using a collection of downscaled climate models. Conditions suiting savanna species are set to increase at the expense of conditions suiting grassland species raising significant challenges for the conservation of grasslands. Indices of habitat intactness and climatic stability were used to develop a vulnerability framework to guide conservation actions to mitigate global change impacts on floristic diversity. Building on the insights gained from the study, a connectivity map linking protected areas was developed, that if implemented, will maximise the opportunity to maintain floristic diversity into the future. The spatial location of the corridors was prioritised based on broad scale climatic refugia, high turnover areas and important plant areas for endemic and threatened species. The corridors were aligned along the major climatic gradients driving floristic pattern. The corridors represent the most natural and cost-effective way for species to adapt to climate change and persist in the landscape. This thesis provides new insights into two global threats facing plant communities in KwaZulu-Natal and provides a suite of products that inform dynamic conservation planning and directs appropriate conservation action. The results may be used to inform policy and legislation. / MT2017

Thesis (Ph.D. (Administration)) -- University of Limpopo, 2015 / The thesis of this study is that food production systems for self-provisioning have historically constituted the backbone for survival and life-support in rural South Africa. Colonialism and apartheid capitalism bore harsh effects on the food production life support systems. However, these effects pale into insignificance compared to the present devastation of the food production systems associated with climate change. The contribution of rural South Africa towards climate change is at all scale negligible because poor people hold limited capacity to produce the deleterious gas emissions that allegedly causes global warming. However, the poor are disproportionately exposed to the adversarial effects of climate change and their food production systems have demonstrated beyond doubt that they cannot cope with stressors occasioned by climate change. Government policy and measures continue to be inadequate and inaccessible for rural households that produce for self-provisioning. The thesis further demonstrate that scientifically–based intervention measures adopted among rural poor in developing countries are viewed as alien and therefore not wholeheartedly adhered to by the users. The thesis points to this discrepancy to illustrate that the value systems among the rural population in South Africa describe changes in their food production in terms of climatic conditions that are, according to their belief systems, avoidable consequences of people’s conduct of life outside tradition, religion and so on. It engages a nascent argument relating to the failure of private and public scientifically-generated intervention measures within developing countries’ rurality, which is ironically exacerbated by the apparent inappropriateness and, often, destructiveness vi of the Green Revolution Technologies. As such interventions fail, the thesis points, they create skeletons of evidence, that appear to corroborate the traditionalist belief systems about the locus of causes of change in climatic conditions being extra-terrestrial as a consequence of people’s misconduct of life. The study investigates the effects of climate change on household food production systems in rural Makhado Local Municipality. 30 villages are used for this study in both households questionnaire survey, interview of the key informants and observation of different patterns of production process, geo-spatial features and current settlements patterns. The data analysis results reflect that different households within the municipality experiences variety of effects of climate change. Furthermore, the climatic conditions which consisted of enough reliable precipitation during food production stages have declined; rather in the post-1990 period, the area have been experiencing continuous heatwaves and drought which destroyed household’s crops and livestock. Using the normative and historical research designs the study found that the situation within villages has changed drastically because of climate change when comparing the conditions preand post-1990. The deliberate adoption of the historical design was crucial given that the thesis mission was to highlight the discrepancies in the so-called modern systems versus the traditionalist philosophies that continue to dominate the thinking and action rural populations in most developing countries. Equally, the historical design provides unquestionable possibility of applying appropriate research techniques to contextualize the research problem under investigation. Indeed, this manoeuvre has always been an important part and parcel of the research design and methodology because the thesis vii had to adopt a longitudinal research orientation through an appropriately designed data collection tool, specifically the questionnaire and interview schedule. From a philosophical perspective, the thesis demystifies the thinking that the so-called scientifically-generated interventions against climate change could resolve the attendant challenges, inclusive of food production. That is, it insinuates that appropriate research is needed for developing countries rurality in order to find intervention measures that are a product of the evolution of traditionalist value systems. Tacitly, the thesis challenges the statist and private sector habits of always parachuting the so-called scientifically generated solutions to climate change. / University of Limpopo Research Administration Department.

MSc (Zoology) / Department of Zoology / The concept of taxonomic diversity has been widely used to investigate diversity patterns and the mechanism underlying community assembly. However, functional and trait diversity can further explain the factors driving community assembly because they capture different aspects of species ecological roles such as habitat requirements and resource use. To investigate the factors shaping community assembly along the elevational Soutpansberg transect, ants were used as a model study organism because they are widely distributed geographically, ubiquitous and play several important roles in ecosystems. Functional and taxonomic diversity patterns along the elevation, their drivers (seasonality, soil properties, temperature and habitat structure) were examined using a long-term dataset (8 years) collected seasonally. Morphological and physiological traits at a community level are quantified and their relationship to temperature, soil properties and habitat structure modelled. Traits were used to test the size-grain hypothesis, Janzen’s rule and Brett’s rule. Functional and taxonomic diversity had a humped-shaped pattern on the northern and a decreasing pattern on the southern aspect. However, taxonomic diversity did not decrease monotonically on the southern aspect. Functional diversity was mainly related to habitat structure and temperature while taxonomic diversity was explained by seasonality, soil properties and temperature. Functional and taxonomic diversity were positively related at a larger scale but habitat specific at a smaller scale. Taxonomic diversity explained more variation in functional diversity than habitat structure and their interactions. The results supported the size-grain hypothesis and Janzen’s rule but not the Brett’s rule. Patterns in taxonomic and functional diversity mirrored each other but were the result of different mechanisms. Temperature was however important for both measures. Incorporating functional diversity analysis into taxonomic diversity contributed significantly in understanding the different mechanisms underlying community assembly along the Soutpansberg transect. This together with trait responses to environmental variables such as a decrease in size with increased temperature could be used to model the responses of ant communities to global change drivers such as climate and land use change / NRF

MENVSC / Department of Geography and Geo-Information Sciences / South Africa was badly affected by the recent 2015/16 severe drought. Water levels in dams declined drastically resulting in decimation of livestock herds and widespread crop failure. Mopani District Municipality is comprised of many agricultural activities that contribute to the economy and social development of the country. The study evaluated the nature of the drought hazard - its impacts, vulnerability and adaptation strategies employed by rural communities of Mopani District. The study used a mixed method approach with both quantitative and qualitative datasets. The district was divided into two distinct climatic areas, the eastern lowveld which includes the Greater-Giyani, Ba-Phalaborwa and Maruleng Local Municipalities and the western highveld which includes Greater- Tzaneen and Greater- Letaba Local Municipalities. Questionnaires were administered among community members whilst key informant interviews were conducted among relevant government and municipal officials. Anomalies in long term climate data were analysed to determine the frequency and intensity of drought in the district. Drought characterisation was done using a Standardised Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index whilst vegetation anomaly maps, maize yields and dam level data were used to analyse the impacts of drought across the district. Levels of vulnerability to drought were determined using the Household Vulnerability Index. Spatially distinct patterns of drought conditions across the district were remarkable with wet conditions on the western highveld along the escarpment and harsh dry conditions towards the eastern lowveld. It was found that nearly half the time there is some form of drought or another in the district which may be linked to the remote El Nino phenomenon. Community vulnerabilities have a direct impact on human welfare and different strategies are employed to adapt to drought hazards both at community and district levels. The study showed a link between drought hazard extent and vulnerability. Community members are adapting using conservation agriculture, selling fire-wood, accessing boreholes and rearing chickens, amongst other means to survive in these harsh climatic conditions. Local government intervention strategies include supply of seeds and fertilisers, selling fodder at a cheaper price and supplying water using trucks. The findings of this study contribute to disaster risk reduction efforts in Mopani District Municipality / NRF