A dissertation submitted to the Faculty of Science, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, in fulfilment of requirements for the degree of Master of Science. Johannesburg, 2016. / The diaries of Jan van Riebeeck contains one of the oldest documentary records of weather phenomena for the southwestern Cape. They contain descriptions of daily wind direction and strength and daily rainfall events. The primary aim of this research is to reconstruct a comprehensive weather chronology for the southwestern Cape region from these diaries, spanning the period 1652-1665, and place this in context with the 20th-21st C climate for the region. The study further aims to examine the relationships between the 17th C society and natural environment. All climate and environmental information is extracted from the diaries and tabulated. Qualitative information on wind and rain was classified and transformed into quantitative data. Contemporary data retrieved from the Royal Observatory and the South African Weather Services are used to make comparisons between the historical study period and contemporary conditions. However, due to the qualitative nature of the historical data, statistical analysis demonstrated that such comparisons are limited. Within the historical period, analysis of the number of rain days demonstrated a distinct wet period in the first half followed by progressive drying. Wind data from the diaries reflected distinct seasonality linked to shifts in the position of the ITCZ. Additionally, unusual events including snow, hail, the Black south-easterly and ‘dirty rain’ are explored. Qualitative data revealed a heavy reliance on climate to support crops and livestock, and a range of environmental stresses to human health, infrastructure and food security. / LG2017

The tourism climate index (TCI) provides information on the levels of comfort for tourism activity based on the climate of a destination. This index has been widely used to quantify the impacts of climate change on tourism at a diversity of destinations. The index is calculated based on the monthly averages of seven variables. To apply this index in South Africa, meteorological datasets of each variable were obtained from the South African Weather Service for 18 locations across South Africa. Each location is climatically distinct and relies on the tourism sector to generate social and economic development within the region. The 18 study sites, are influenced by differences in elevation, the Benguela and Agulhas currents, found along the west and east coast of the country respectively, and by the temporal scale at which summer and winter rainfall occurs across the country. Various data limitations resulted in the need for an adapted tourism climate model in order to calculate the climate suitability of all the chosen locations. The annual mean TCI scores for the period 2005-2014, reveal excellent to ideal climate suitability for tourism at the majority of the locations, with TCI scores ranging between 80.20 and 93.00. However, for the same period, East London, Port Nolloth and Belfast have annual average TCI scores between 74.88 and 79.20, which indicates that their climate suitability is considered to be very good. During the period 2005-2014, the majority of the locations experienced an increase in their climate suitability for tourism. Mean Monthly TCI scores indicate seasonal variations in the climate suitability of destinations across the country. These results suggest that Durban and St Lucia have the most favourable climate conditions for tourism during winter; while Cape Town, Paarl, Port Elizabeth, East London, Port Nolloth and Knysna have the most favourable climate conditions for tourism during summer; and Bethlehem, Bloemfontein, Johannesburg, Kimberley, Ladysmith, Nelspruit, Pilanesberg, Pretoria, Polokwane, and Belfast have the best climatic conditions for tourism during spring and autumn. The difference in average TCI scores across the country and the rate at which these TCI scores change over temporal scales highlights the need for constant monitoring of the climate suitability in these regions, particularly because they are reliant on the tourism sector. Rainfall and average thermal comfort had the most negative influence on the annual mean TCI scores, whilst daytime thermal comfort had the most positive influence on the same TCI scores. Tourism academics and researchers in South Africa were interviewed and they perceive climate change to be a social issue that will only impact the South African tourism sector in the future. The perceptions of the tourism academics and researchers are important as they are often the first people to engage with information pertaining to issues about tourism in South Africa. Although none of the respondents could provide a clear indication of when they perceive climate change to have an impact on the South African tourism sector, the majority of them believe that that TCI can be used as a tool to quantify the impacts of climate change on the tourism sector. This would improve the capacity of tourism stakeholders to adapt to the resultant impacts. However, most of the tourism academics and researchers clearly stipulated that the TCI should be used in conjunction with current climate change and tourism research in the country

Thesis submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in the University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg / Andrew Chakane 2020

A thesis submitted to the Faculty of Science, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy. July 2014. / South Africa’s climate is highly variable, implying that the national agricultural sector should make provision to have early warning services in place in order to reduce the risks of disasters. More than 70% of natural disasters worldwide are caused by weather and climate or weather and climate related hazards. Reliable Seasonal Climate Forecasting (SCF) for South Africa would have the potential to be of great benefit to users in addressing disaster risk reduction. A disaster is a serious disruption of the functioning of a community or a society, causing widespread human, material, economic or environmental losses, which exceed the ability of the affected community or society to cope when using their own resources. The negative impacts on agricultural production in South Africa due to natural disasters including disasters due to increasing climate variability and climate change are critical to the sector. The hypothesis assumed in the study is the improved early warning service and better SCF dissemination lead to more effective and better decision making for subsequent disaster risk reduction in the agricultural sector. The most important aspect of knowledge management in early warning operations is that of distributing the most useful service to the target group that needs it at the right time. This will not only ensure maximum performance of the entity responsible for issuing the early warnings, but will also ensure the maximum benefit to the target group. South Africa is becoming increasingly vulnerable to natural disasters that are afflicted by localised incidents of seasonal droughts, floods and flash floods that have devastating impacts on agriculture and food security. Such disasters might affect agricultural production decisions, as well as agricultural productivity. Planting dates and plant selection are decisions that depend on reliable and accurate meteorological and climatological knowledge and services for agriculture. Early warning services that could be used to facilitate informed decision making includes advisories on iv future soil moisture conditions in order to determine estimated planting times, on future grazing capacity, on future water availability and on forecasts of the following season’s weather and climate, whenever that is possible. The involvement of government structures, obviously, is also critical in immediate responses and long term interventions. The importance of creating awareness, of offering training workshops on climate knowledge and SCF, and of creating effective early warning services dissemination channels is realized by government. This is essential in order to put effective early warning services in place as a disaster-risk coping tool. Early warning services, however, can only be successful if the end-users are aware of what early warning systems, structures and technologies are in place, and if they are willing that those issuing the early warning services become involved in the decision-making process. Integrated disaster-risk reduction initiatives in government programmes, effective dissemination structures, natural resource-management projects and communityparticipation programmes are only a few examples of actions that will contribute to the development of effective early warning services, and the subsequent response to and adoption of the advices/services strategies by the people most affected. The effective distribution of the most useful early warning services to the end-user, who needs it at the right time through the best governing structures, may significantly improve decision making in the agricultural, food security and other water-sensitive sectors. Developed disaster-risk policies for extension and farmers as well as other disaster prone sectors should encourage self-reliance and the sustainable use of natural resources, and will reduce the need for government intervention. The SCF producers (e.g. the South African Weather Service (SAWS)) have issued new knowledge to intermediaries for some years now, and it is important to determine whether this knowledge has been used in services, and if so whether these services were applied effectively in coping with disaster-risks and in disaster v reduction initiatives and programmes. This study for that reason also intends to do an evaluation of the knowledge communication processes between forecasters, and intermediaries at national and provincial government levels. It therefore, aims to assess and evaluate the current knowledge communication structures within the national agricultural sector, seeking to improve disaster-risk reduction through effective early warning services. A boundary organisation is an organization which crosses the boundary between science, politics and end-users as they draw on the interests and knowledge of agencies on both sides to facilitate evidence base and socially beneficial policies and programmes. Reducing uncertainty in SCF is potentially of enormous economic value especially to the rural communities. The potential for climate science to deliver reduction in total SCF uncertainty is associated entirely with the contributions from internal variability and model uncertainty. The understanding of the limitations of the SCFs as a result of uncertainties is very important for decision making and to end-users during planning. Disappointing, however, is that several studies have shown a fairly narrow group of potential users actually receive SCFs, with an even a smaller number that makes use of these forecasts In meeting the objectives of the study the methodology to be followed is based on knowledge communication. For that reason two types of questionnaires were drafted. Open and closed questionnaires comprehensively review the knowledge, understanding, interpretation of SCFs and in early warning services distribution channels. These questionnaires were administered among the SCF producers and intermediaries and results analysed. Lastly the availability of useful SCFs knowledge has important implications for agricultural production and food security. Reliable and accurate climate service, as one of the elements of early warning services, will be discussed since they may be used to improve agricultural practices such as crop diversification, time of planting vi and changes in cultivation practices. It was clear from the conclusions of the study that critical elements of early warning services need to receive focused attention such as the SCF knowledge feedback programme should be improved by both seasonal climate producers and intermediaries, together with established structures through which reliable, accurate and timely early warning services can be disseminated. Also the relevant dissemination channels of SCFs are critical to the success of effective implementation of early warning services including the educating and training of farming communities. The boundary organisation and early warning structures are important in effective implementation of risk reduction measures within the agricultural sector and thus need to be prioritised. Enhancing the understandability and interpretability of SCF knowledge by intermediaries will assist in improving action needed to respond to SCFs. Multiple media used by both SCF producers and intermediaries in disseminating of SCFs should be accessible by all users and end-users. The Government should ensure that farming communities are educated, trained and well equipped to respond to risks from natural hazards.

M. Tech. Architecture (Professional) / The aim of the dissertation is to create an architectural interpretation of a new interactive center. The center will explore the adaption of buildings in a natural context within the city of Pretoria, to promote research, solutions and understanding of climate change in a developing country that is dependent on energy. The awareness center will be situated on a prominent untouched site within the Innovation Hub campus. The aspiration for this site is to reintroduce the link between two major research facilities namely the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) and the University of Pretoria (UP). The development of the design will investigate the following issues: The background and effect of climate change; Climate change as a reality and architecture in an eco-systemic approach; and How architecture should respond to climate change and nature.

Vapour pressure (interchangeably referred to as atmospheric humidity) and solar radiation data are, for different reasons, difficult data to obtain in South Africa. Relative humidity measuring instruments (from which vapour pressure values can be obtained) require constant maintenance , while solar radiation can only be measured electronically. Data from both of these variables are, however, required as inputs to the Penman-Monteith equation, which has become the internationally accepted reference for the estimation of potential evaporation. It is necessary, therefore, to produce estimates of vapour pressure and solar radiation over South Africa from more common surrogates, e.g. rainfall and temperature data. Several methods of estimating vapour pressure and solar radiation from the literature are reviewed in this dissertation. Considerably greater attention is focused on models of vapour pressure than solar radiation , as less literature exists on this subject. In general, the methods involved in estimating vapour pressure tend to be relatively rudimentary. The FAO 56 documentation advises using saturated vapour pressure at minimum air temperature as an estimate of vapour pressure, yet the implicit assumptions of using this approach can fail in many circumstances, particularly in the more arid regions . It was found that monthly vapour pressure at any given location in South Africa could be estimated from geographical (invariate) data alone. It was also found that the most influential factor affecting daily vapour pressure at a given location within a given time frame (less than one month) was "air masses". Air masses proved too complicated to model from surrogate data of temperature and rainfall , however, and were thus omitted from the final model. Daily values of vapour pressure and vapour pressure deficit were estimated by holding vapour pressure for a given month constant, but varying temperature on a daily basis It was found that this method produced acceptable results for both elements throughout South Africa. The need for estimating solar radiation has existed for considerably longer than for vapour pressure. Professions other than agriculture, principally architecture and civil engineering, have long required solar radiation data/values. For this reason the art of estimating solar radiation values is better established and more models were available in the literature. Several suitable and recently developed solar radiation models, which use surrogate data (temperature and rainfall) , were identified from the literature survey. These models were then applied in situ and the results were compared with observed values. It was found that the majority of models produced similar output to one another. However, the Liu and Scott (2001) model, which is an enhancement of the Bristow and Campbell (1984) model, was found to be the best available model of those tested, particularly in the more humid locations of South Africa . Verification analyses revealed that the Liu and Scott (2001) model could be used to interpolate solar radiation where a sparse network of solar radiation measuring stations exists, e.g. in the arid locations of South Africa . The structure of the Liu and Scott (2001) model , however, prevented it from being employed in a subsequent exercise on mapping solar radiation over South Africa . For this purpose, the Hunt et al . (1998) model was employed. The estimation of two elements , vapour pressure and solar radiation , was improved upon, and the Penman-Monteith equation can thus now be more confidently applied throughout South Africa. Of these two elements, it is vapour pressure , which, because of a paucity of research to date on the subject, lends itself to expansive research in the future . / Thesis (M.Sc.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, 2004.

Thesis (MSc)--Stellenbosch University, 2003. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The oceanic and meteorological systems that characterize the southern African coastline are well-documented. In this thesis, these characteristics have been considered in conjunction with the analysis of a unique set of sea surface temperature (SST) data, obtained from measuring sites around the southern African coast, to determine the variability of SSTs in the immediate coastal region of southern Africa, and to demonstrate how this variability impacts on marinerelated economic activities. As part of the analysis process, various statistical techniques have been applied to the data over different time periods to establish the extent of the spatial variability of SSTs along the southern African coastline. From the results it has been possible to identify three distinctly different 'climatological' regions around the southern African coast; viz a cooler west coast region with a low annual and seasonal SST variability and a higher variability from day-ta-day, a warmer east coast region with a higher annual and seasonal SST variability and a lower variability from day-ta-day; and a temperate south coast region with a highly erratic annual, seasonal and day-ta-day SST variability. Furthermore, it has been possible to identify, albeit small, the existence of a high and a low frequency signal of 12-15 days and 40-60 days, respectively, in the three different regions. There is also evidence of the periodic occurrence of anomalously warm and cold SST events in all three regions, and a probability of <1.1% of a day-ta-day SST anomaly of >3°C (+3°C or- 3°C) occurring anywhere along the southern African coastline. The general causes of SST change have been discussed within the context of the heat budget equation. Furthermore, the effects of the variability of SST on the climate and marine life around southern Africa and the resulting impact on the various marine-related economic activities (such as aquaculture, air-sea rescue and power stations) have been identified, and shown to be both positive and negative.Finally, it should be noted, that economic infonnation relating to marine activities is closely guarded due to inter-industry competition. It has therefore been difficult to quantify the exact impact of the effects of SST variability on these activities. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die oseaniese en weerkundige stelsels wat die kuslyn van suidelike Afrika kenmerk is goed gedokumenteer. Die stelselkenmerke is in hierdie verhandeling ondersoek aan die hand van 'n unieke datastel van seeoppervlaktemperature (SST) afkomstig van meetplekke aan die kus van suidelike Afrika, ten einde die veranderlikheid van SST in die onmiddelike kusomgewing van suidelike Afrika vas te stel, asook om te demonstreer hoe hierdie veranderlikheid inwerk op seeverwante ekonomiese aktiwiteite. As deel van die proses van analise is verskeie statistiese metodes gebruik om die data oor verskeie tydperke te ontleed ten einde die omvang van ruimtelike veranderlikheid van SSTs langs die kus van suidelike Afrika te bepaal. Uit die resultate was dit moontlik om drie duidelike onderskeibare 'klimatologiese' streke aan die kus van suidelike Afrika te identifiseer; te wete 'n koeler weskusstreek met 'n lae jaarlikse en seisoenale SST-veranderlikheid en hoër dag-tot-dag veranderlikheid, 'n warmer ooskusstreek met 'n hoër jaarlikse en seisoenale SST-veranderlikheid en laer dag-tot-dag verandelikheid; asook 'n gematigde suidkusstreek met 'n hoogs wisselvallige jaarlikse, seisoenale en dag-totdag SST-veranderlikheid. Dit was verder moontlik om, alhoewel klein, die bestaan van lae en hoë frekwensie seine van 12-15 dae en 40-60 dae onderskeidelik in die drie streke te identifiseer. Daar is ook tekens van die periodieke voorkoms van anomale warm en koue SSTgebeurtenisse in al drie streke en 'n waarskynlikheid van <1.1% van die voorkoms van 'n dagtot- dag SST-anomaliteit van >3°C (+3°C of -3°G) op enige plek langs die suider Afrikaanse kuslyn. Die algemene oorsake van veranderings in SST is bespreek binne die konteks van die formule vir die behoud van hitte-energie. Die invloed van SST-veranderlikheid op die klimaat en die seelewe om suidelike Afrika en die gevolglike effek op mariene-verwante ekonomiese aktiwiteite (soos akwakultuur, lug-see-redding en kragstasies) is ook geïdentifiseer en is aangetoon om beide positief en negatief te wees Ten laaste dien dit gemeld te word dat ekonomiese inligting met betrekking tot mariene aktiwitweite goed bewaar word as gevolg van kompetisie in die bedryf. Dit was derhalwe moeilik om die presiese impak van die gevolge van SST-veranderlikheid op sodanige aktiwiteite te kwantifiseer.

Thesis (Ph.D. (Administration)) -- University of Limpopo, 2015 / The thesis of this study is that food production systems for self-provisioning have historically constituted the backbone for survival and life-support in rural South Africa. Colonialism and apartheid capitalism bore harsh effects on the food production life support systems. However, these effects pale into insignificance compared to the present devastation of the food production systems associated with climate change. The contribution of rural South Africa towards climate change is at all scale negligible because poor people hold limited capacity to produce the deleterious gas emissions that allegedly causes global warming. However, the poor are disproportionately exposed to the adversarial effects of climate change and their food production systems have demonstrated beyond doubt that they cannot cope with stressors occasioned by climate change. Government policy and measures continue to be inadequate and inaccessible for rural households that produce for self-provisioning. The thesis further demonstrate that scientifically–based intervention measures adopted among rural poor in developing countries are viewed as alien and therefore not wholeheartedly adhered to by the users. The thesis points to this discrepancy to illustrate that the value systems among the rural population in South Africa describe changes in their food production in terms of climatic conditions that are, according to their belief systems, avoidable consequences of people’s conduct of life outside tradition, religion and so on. It engages a nascent argument relating to the failure of private and public scientifically-generated intervention measures within developing countries’ rurality, which is ironically exacerbated by the apparent inappropriateness and, often, destructiveness vi of the Green Revolution Technologies. As such interventions fail, the thesis points, they create skeletons of evidence, that appear to corroborate the traditionalist belief systems about the locus of causes of change in climatic conditions being extra-terrestrial as a consequence of people’s misconduct of life. The study investigates the effects of climate change on household food production systems in rural Makhado Local Municipality. 30 villages are used for this study in both households questionnaire survey, interview of the key informants and observation of different patterns of production process, geo-spatial features and current settlements patterns. The data analysis results reflect that different households within the municipality experiences variety of effects of climate change. Furthermore, the climatic conditions which consisted of enough reliable precipitation during food production stages have declined; rather in the post-1990 period, the area have been experiencing continuous heatwaves and drought which destroyed household’s crops and livestock. Using the normative and historical research designs the study found that the situation within villages has changed drastically because of climate change when comparing the conditions preand post-1990. The deliberate adoption of the historical design was crucial given that the thesis mission was to highlight the discrepancies in the so-called modern systems versus the traditionalist philosophies that continue to dominate the thinking and action rural populations in most developing countries. Equally, the historical design provides unquestionable possibility of applying appropriate research techniques to contextualize the research problem under investigation. Indeed, this manoeuvre has always been an important part and parcel of the research design and methodology because the thesis vii had to adopt a longitudinal research orientation through an appropriately designed data collection tool, specifically the questionnaire and interview schedule. From a philosophical perspective, the thesis demystifies the thinking that the so-called scientifically-generated interventions against climate change could resolve the attendant challenges, inclusive of food production. That is, it insinuates that appropriate research is needed for developing countries rurality in order to find intervention measures that are a product of the evolution of traditionalist value systems. Tacitly, the thesis challenges the statist and private sector habits of always parachuting the so-called scientifically generated solutions to climate change. / University of Limpopo Research Administration Department.

It has become accepted that long-term global mean temperatures have increased over the twentieth century. However, whether or not climate change can be detected at a local or regional scale is still questionable. The numerous new record highs and lows of temperatures recorded over South Africa for 2003, 2004 and 2005 provide reason to examine whether changes can already be detected in southern Africa's temperature record and modelled hydrological responses. As a preface to a temperature detection study, a literature reVIew on temperature detection studies, methods used and data problems encountered, was undertaken. Simple statistics, linear regression and the Mann-Kendall non-parametric test were the methods reviewed for detecting change. Southern Africa's temperature record was thereafter examined for changes, and the Mann-Kendall non-parametric test was applied to time series of annual means of minimum and maximum temperature, summer means of maximum temperature and winter means of minimum temperature. Furthermore, changes in the upper and lower ends of the temperature distribution were examined. The Mann-Kendall test was applied to numbers of days and numbers of 3 consecutive days abovelbelow thresholds of 10th and 90th percentiles of minimum and maximum temperatures, as well as abovelbelow threshold values of minimum (i.e. 0°) and maximum (i.e. 40°C) temperatures. A second analysis, using the split sample technique for the periods 1950 - 1970 vs 1980 - 2000, was performed for annual means of daily maximum and minimum temperatures, summer means of daily maximum temperatures, winter means of daily minimum temperatures and coefficients of variability of daily maximum and minimum temperatures. Two clear clusters of warming emerged from almost every analysis, viz. a cluster of stations in the Western Cape and a cluster of stations around the midlands ofKwaZulu-Natal, along with a band of stations along the KwaZulu-Natal coast. Another fmding was a less severe frost season over the Free State and Northern Cape. While certain changes are, therefore, evident in temperature parameters, the changes are not uniform across southern Africa. Precipitation and evaporation are the primary drivers of the hydrological cycle, with temperature an important factor in the evaporation process. Thus, with changes in various temperature parameters having been identified over many parts of southern Africa, the question arose whether any changes were evident as yet in hydrological responses. The ACRU model was used to generate daily streamflow values and associated hydrological responses from a baseline land cover, thus eliminating all possible human influences on the catchment and channel. A split-sample analysis of the simulated hydrological responses for the 1950 - 1969 vs 1980 - 1999 periods was undertaken. Trends over time in simulated streamflows were examined for medians, dry and wet years, as well as the range between wet and dry years. The seasonality and concentration of streamflows between the periods 1950 - 1969 and 1980 - 1999 were examined to determine if changes could be identified. Some trends found were marked over large parts of Primary Catchments, and certainly require consideration in future water resources planning. With strong changes over time in simulated hydrological responses already evident in certain Primary Catchments of South Africa using daily rainfall input data from 1950 1999, it, therefore, became necessary to examine the rainfall regimes of the Quaternary Catchments' "driver" rainfall station data in order to determine if these hydrological response changes were supported by changes in rainfall patterns over time. A splitsample analysis was, therefore, performed on the rainfall input of each Quaternary Catchment. Not only were medians considered, but the higher and lower ends of the rainfall distributions were also analysed, as were the number of rainfall events above pre-defined daily thresholds. The changes evident over time in rainfall patterns over southern Africa were found to vary from relatively unsubstantial increases or decreases to significant increase and decreases. However, the changes in rainfall corresponded with the changes noted in simulated streamflow. From the analyses conducted in this study, it has become clear that South Africa's temperature and rainfall, as well as hydrological responses, have changed over the recent past, particularly in certain identifiable hotspots, viz. the Western Cape and KwaZulu-Natal where significant increases in temperature variables and changes in rainfall patterns were detected. These detected changes in climate need to be considered in future water resources planning. / Thesis (M.Sc.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, 2005.