This study identifies the spatial and temporal change of three types of Urban Heat Island (UHI). The Surface Urban Heat Island (SUHI) and Canopy Urban Heat Island (CUHI) are common UHI phenomena; however, the Radiant Urban Heat Island (RUHI) is proposed as a new type of UHI. Surface temperature, air temperature, and mean radiant temperature are used as indicators to measure the SUHI, CUHI, and RUHI respectively. Visual, statistical and microclimate approaches are carried out to increase the spatial and temporal resolution of the UHI modelling. The modelling approaches employ the integration of remote sensing, GIS, and ground measurements to improve the 2D and 3D representation of the UHI. Furthermore, the influencing parameters on the formation of the three types of UHI are investigated. The research aim is to produce an integrated approach that improves the low spatial or temporal coverage of UHI models in the literature. Moreover, it quantifies the causative parameters on the formation of UHI, and proposes mitigation strategies accordingly. London, Baghdad and Birmingham are the study areas of the SUHI, to test the variability of the size, population, Land Use/Cover (LULC), geometry, microclimate, geography, and level of development. Birmingham is chosen to study the CUHI and RUHI, because of the availability of the required data to model these UHIs. The SUHI is carried out between (2000- 2015) by the Land Surface Temperature (LST) of the thermal bands of Landsat, ASTER, MODIS and other auxiliary data. The CUHI, on the hand, is undertaken for two years (June 2012- June 2014) using high density air temperature measurements (HiTemp data), and the RUHI is simulated based on the mean radiant temperature (Tmrt) for four seasonal days that are part of the HiTemp. The integrated approach of the research employs three indictors (LST, air temperature, and Tmrt) to model the UHI which is unprecedented in the literature. Furthermore, within the use of each indicator there is a novel approach. The LST is acquired for three different cities using thermal bands from 1 m to 1000 m spatial resolution by employing diverse satellite and airborne images for about 15 years. The air temperature is hourly measured for two years by over 100 ground stations to produce high spatial and temporal thermal maps, and some of the ground stations are used to simulate the Tmrt. The Tmrt is used for the first time to model the UHI as a new indictor, which upgrades the 2D UHI using LST and air temperature to 3D UHI simulation. The influencing parameters on the formation of three types of UHI derived from the three indicators are identified, and they include many potential factors not investigated together in the literature. The findings of such topic might be useful for decision-makers when building new cities or modifying the existing ones, even the public can know more about their environment. The results show that, London and Birmingham core area usually work as SUHI during the day and night-time. However, Baghdad city exhibits low LST in the daytime except for high density residential area as well as indusial and commercial units. Similarly, Baghdad city becomes a SUHI in the night-time, and the water bodies have high LST during the cold nights for the three cities. Despite the higher diurnal, daytime and night-time LST of Baghdad compared to London and Birmingham, the London SUHI intensities were higher than those of Baghdad. The temporal change of the average LST and SUHI for Birmingham did not show significant change over the study period just like London; however, they both gave high spatial variability. The diurnal averages of SUHI are 9.41, 11.29, and 7.63 ºC for Baghdad, London, and Birmingham (during 2003-2015) respectively. The CUHI appear daytime and night-time in Birmingham urban and suburban areas throughout the different seasons for 56% of the total hours of two years, to reach 13.53 ºC. The simulation of Tmrt show the presence of daytime Radiant Urban Cool Island (RUCI) in the City Centre of Birmingham, while, the night-time induced the development of RUHI. Various influencing parameters contribute to the different types of UHI. The land cover types and anthropogenic heat are the main contributors to the SUHI. Fourteen controllable and uncontrollable predictors control the CUHI development. On the other hand, the radiation fluxes and shadow patterns direct the RUHI formation. Overall, the spatial and temporal behaviour of UHI varies for the different types of UHI. Each type of UHI is controlled by a set of causative parameters, and these might differ based on the type of UHI as well as where and when it occurs.

Made available in DSpace on 2014-06-11T19:33:36Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2006Bitstream added on 2014-06-13T19:04:44Z : No. of bitstreams: 1 ely_df_dr_prud.pdf: 902098 bytes, checksum: 6c3ecec249be504e708f65dcb2fdee1a (MD5) / O presente trabalho constitui um mapeamento e análise sobre os discursos e práticas empreendidos pela climatologia geográfica brasileira. O principal propósito para o seu desenvolvimento foi a verificação de como o conhecimento geográfico do clima encontra-se vinculado aos debates efetivados pelas diversas correntes filosóficas de pensamento e às diferentes concepções de natureza e de geografia. A verificação do processo de inserção e constituição dessa especialidade científica no Brasil demonstrou a existência de duas vertentes metodológicas principais: uma baseada em decomposições analítico-descritivas do fenômeno climático e outra subsidiada nas explicações da meteorologia dinâmica. O estudo geográfico do clima, a partir desse universo de análise, é desenvolvido a partir de cinco recortes temáticos principais: clima urbano, variabilidade pluvial, o clima na análise ambiental e da paisagem, modelagem estatística em climatologia e teoria e método da climatologia; pautados na concepção de natureza dinâmica-sistêmica. Foi verificado que as questões epistemológicas da Geografia não são refletidas enfaticamente pela climatologia geográfica brasileira, tornando a apreensão da espacialidade do clima na composição das novas territorialidades uma tarefa difícil de ser realizada. / The main purpose of this following thesis is to verify how the geographic knowledge of the climate relates to debates about diverse philosophical trends and the different conceptions of nature and geography, by mapping out and analyzing discourses and practices within the scope of the Brazilian geographic climatology. The climate geographic study, in this universe of analysis, is developed from five main themes: urban climate, pluvial variability, the climate in the environment and setting analysis, statistical modeling in climatology and climatology theory and method; all of them based on the conception of the dynamic-systemic nature. It was verified that epistemological problems in Geography are not emphatically concerned by Brazilian geographic climatology, what can make the understanding of the climate spatiality in the composition of new territorialities a difficult task.

This thesis describes an attempt to devise a human comfort climatology of the British Isles using social survey methods, and, as such is a departure from previous work which used either controlled experiments or simplified energy balance models. A Likert scale questionnaire was administered to 750 people in a street survey in order to elicit their views of the weather, and its results related to the measured weather. The response was found to be related to a linear combination of the Windchill and Temperature Humidity Indices, cloud cover, pressure and presence or absence of precipitation. This 'Index of Human Comfort' was calculated for the synoptic stations using a sample of U.K. Daily Weather Report data with the data being stratified according to the Lamb Natural Seasons. These data are instantaneous recordings and as such reflected the true covariance of the data unlike mean data which have been used in most earlier work. The examination of the spatial and temporal variation in the mean and standard deviation of the Index of Human Comfort revealed distinct seasonal differences although latitude and proximity to the coast were important controls in all seasons with Southern inland areas being the most favoured for human comfort. The use of instantaneous data also allowed a consideration of the maxima and minima of the Index and its range which again revealed a North to South and coast to inland improvement in human comfort. The thesis concludes with some recommendations for future research which include the need for the development of improved methodologies for the study of the relationship between man and weather and the ways in which a human comfort climatology can be derived, either indirectly by synthesis from an index of comfort, or directly by eliciting people's views on the climate rather than the weather.

The UK weather radar network and telemetry system for the raingauges and river level gauges provided the solid physical base which produce the large amount of data in real time and a large variety of operational flood forecasting models were supplied from SW Region of the Environment Agency. Data processing, the selection of a suitable model, model calibration and parameters updating have played a more and more important role in real time forecasting and this thesis focuses on many of the key issues involved in the emerging area. Within this context, surface fitting, interpolation and cluster analysis were used for adjustment of the weather radar data and comparison between the raingauge data and radar data. As the core of the forecasting system the rainfall runoff model and river routing model were investigated in a wide-ranging manner, the key model utilised is the Transfer Function model. Potential misinterpretation of the TF model was explained by distinguishing between the "Black Box" model and the "White Box" model. The physically based Genetic Cascade Transfer Function (GCTF) model was introduced and shown to be consistent with the Gamma function and Muskingum model which were based upon the three common assumptions: linear, time-invariant and Single Input Single Output (SISO) system. The calculation formula for the moment parameters and the geometry coefficients (t-peak time, volume parameter) create the initial model and a genetic algorithm provides the basic tool to global search for the parameters. An expert system plus the genetic algorithm are combined to provide a real time updating capability. A dentritic model composed of the SISO rainfall runoff model at several tributaries and the Multi-Input Single Output (MISO) routing model in the mainstream were developed and applied to the Bristol Avon catchment. As a Weather Radar Information Processor, WRIP(II) was extended and implemented on a SPARC 10 workstation and communions at Environment Agency South West Region (Exeter) with a graphical user interface based on X/Motif.

This thesis describes the development of real-time flood forecasting models at selected catchments in the three countries, using rain gauge and radar derived rainfall estimates and time-series analysis. An extended inter-comparison of real-time flood forecasting models has been carried out and an attempt has been made to rank the flood forecasting models. It was found that an increase in model complexity does not necessarily lead to an increase in forecast accuracy. An extensive analysis of group calibrated transfer function (TF) models on the basis of antecedent conditions of the catchment and storm characteristics has revealed that the use of group model resulted in a significant improvement in the quality of the forecast. A simple model to calculate the average pulse response has also been developed. The development of a hybrid genetic algorithm (HGA), applied to a physically realisable transfer function model is described. The techniques of interview selection and fitness scaling as well as random bit mutation and multiple crossover have been included, and both binary and real number encoding technique have been assessed. The HGA has been successfully applied for the identification and simulation of the dynamic TF model. Four software packages have been developed and extensive development and testing has proved the viability of the approach. Extensive research has been conducted to find the most important adjustment factor of the dynamic TF model. The impact of volume, shape and time adjustment factors on forecast quality has been evaluated. It has been concluded that the volume adjustment factor is the most important factor of the three. Furthermore, several attempts have been made to relate the adjustment factors to different elements. The interaction of adjustment factors has also been investigated. An autoregressive model has been used to develop a new updating technique for the dynamic TF model by the updating of the B parameters through the prediction of future volume adjustment factors over the forecast lead-time. An autoregressive error prediction model has also been combined with a static TF model. Testing has shown that the performance of both new TF models is superior to conventional procedures.

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The Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) is the only low latitude connector between the Pacific and Indian Oceans affecting upper ocean stratification and regional climate. Here we focus on the Indian Ocean side of this connection, first identifying changes within the primary throughflow pathway within the Indonesian Seas, then following the throughflow as it moves within the eastern tropical Indian Ocean. Moored velocity measurements and an ENSO varying temperature profile developed from all available observations within the Makassar Strait are used to determine the southward heat flux anomaly (HFa) within this primary pathway of the ITF. Variability in the velocity profile is more important than that of the temperature profile for determining changes in the total heat flux with the former accounting for 72% of the variance in HFa and the latter 28%. As the upper layer (0-300 m) is the site of the largest volume transports and also the largest transport variability, upper layer HFa is far more dominant than the lower (320-740 m) in influencing the total depth integrated HFa. Upper ocean heat content anomaly (0-300 m; HCa) in the eastern tropical Indian Ocean calculated from gridded Argo datasets is well correlated with Makassar HFa at interannual timescales (r = 0.8). The lag between the two is 2.5 years, indicating that this is consistent with an advective signal. From the Indo-Australian basin ITF waters flow either into the South Equatorial Current (SEC) to the west or the Leeuwin Current (LC) to the south. Gridded Argo data is used to track upper ocean heat content changes from the immediate outflow area into these two currents. The heat content anomaly timeseries in the region closest to the Indonesian Seas is well correlated with that at the easternmost section of the SEC with r = 0.8 at a 5 month lag. A notable exception occurs during 2011 when a positive heat content anomaly in the ITF outflow region is not later reflected in the SEC region, but rather expressed as an HCa increase the LC region. When compared to a previous HCa increase in the ITF outflow region during 2009, GODAS reanalysis shows that the velocity within the SEC was stronger eastward and the LC stronger southward during 2011. The Ningaloo Niño of 2011 was characterized by a low pressure anomaly off the west Australian Coast, which induced anomalous cyclonic circulation seen in NCEP/NCAR reanalysis winds at 1000 HPa. The positive zonal wind anomalies over the SEC and the reduction of southerly winds over the LC influenced these changes in current velocity. During the Ningaloo Niño of 2000 a similar pattern in atmospheric and oceanic circulation was identified. These results confirm the importance of the Ningaloo Niño in influencing the pathways of the ITF out of the Indo-Australian basin. Additionally, over the Argo time period, volume transport via the LC and SEC pathways appears anti-correlated, with increases in SEC outflow coupled with decreases in LC outflow. As the SEC is the major pathway for the ITF within the Indian Ocean, we examine the propagation of these low salinity waters within the SEC thermocline. Using gridded Argo data, we examine the salinity along the 24σ surface as a proxy for ITF propagation, and the depth of the 20°C isotherm (d20) to determine how changes in the thermocline depth may affect the flow. The d20 was correlated with the salinity (r=-0.5) in the region of the Seychelles Chagos Thermocline Ridge (SCTR), indicating that this region of upwelling, and the geostrophic currents that form around it, play a role in the westward propagation of the ITF. When examining the seasonal cycle, the effect of the SCTR is apparent as low salinity contours within the western portion of the basin show the furthest westward propagation during austral winter, when the SCTR is strong and most longitudinally expansive. On interannual timescales two years, 2010/11 and 2016/17, show anomalously high salinity in the SEC thermocline indicative of a reduction of ITF westward propagation. During late 2010 and 2016 anomalously strong upwelling regions are present at about 80°E and 10°S, out of the normal season for strong upwelling at this location. GODAS reanalysis velocity at 105 m shows cyclonic circulation developed around these upwelling centers, disrupting the normal zonal pathway of the SEC and reducing the amount of ITF able to propagate into the central Indian. As seen in the 34.8 salinity contour, both 2011 and 2017 show a reduction of 20 degrees of longitude of ITF westward propagation when compared to climatology. These upwelling regions were caused by both regional winds conducive to Ekman upwelling at that location, in addition to the absence of the annual westward propagating downwelling Rossby wave. This wave was absent during both late 2010 and 2016 due to positive zonal wind anomalies in the south east tropical Indian Ocean caused by a simultaneous occurrence of La Niña and a negative IOD.