This paper uses co-integration method and error-correction model to re-examine the relationship between real exchange rate and expected interest rate differentials, including cumulated current account balance, over floating exchange rate periods. As indicated by the dynamic model, I find that there is a long run relationship among the variables using Johansen co-integration method. Final conclusion is that the empirical evidence is provided to show that our error-correction model leads to a good real exchange rate forecast.

This paper examines the forecast accuracy of an unrestricted Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model for GDP, relative to a comparable Vector Error Correction (VEC) model that recognizes that the data is characterized by co-integration. In addition, an alternative forecast method, Intercept Correction (IC), is considered for further comparison. Recursive out-of-sample forecasts are generated for both models and forecast techniques. The generated forecasts for each model are objectively evaluated by a selection of evaluation measures and equal accuracy tests. The result shows that the VEC models consistently outperform the VAR models. Further, IC enhances the forecast accuracy when applied to the VEC model, while there is no such indication when applied to the VAR model. For certain forecast horizons there is a significant difference in forecast ability between the VEC IC model compared to the VAR model.

This paper is based on international trade between Taiwan and China intently. This purpose of this paper is to explore economic factors on the volume of Phalaenopsis orchid export from Taiwan to China from 1998 to 2011 . This paper will firstly set four influence variables, the previous export, the China's GDP, the exchange rate and the tariff . Then, this paper will exam those variables by using Unit Root test and the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) method in an empirical analysis. After the examination by Unit Root test, the result shows that all the variables appear to be stationary in the first difference. Furthermore, in Chow test, the empirical results indicate that no structural change occurred before and after the first phase of tariff reduction under ECFA. In co-integration test, those variables are co-integrated. In VAR model, China¡¦s GDP, the exchange rate, and the tariff have impact on the volume of the imports from Taiwan to China in different degrees as well.

<p>This paper uses co-integration method and error-correction model to re-examine the relationship between real exchange rate and expected interest rate differentials, including cumulated current account balance, over floating exchange rate periods. As indicated by the dynamic model, I find that there is a long run relationship among the variables using Johansen co-integration method. Final conclusion is that the empirical evidence is provided to show that our error-correction model leads to a good real exchange rate forecast.</p>

In this paper, the forecast performance of an unrestricted Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model was compared against the forecast accuracy of a Vector error correction (VECM) model when computing out-of-sample forecasts for Swedish exports. The co-integrating relation used to estimate the error correction specification was based upon an economic theory for international trade suggesting that a long run equilibrium relation among the variables included in an export demand equation should exist. The results obtained provide evidence of a long run equilibrium relationship between the Swedish export volume and its main determinants. The models were estimated for manufactured goods using quarterly data for the period 1975-1999 and once estimated, the models were used to compute out-of-sample forecasts up to four-, eight- and twelve-quarters ahead for the Swedish export volume using both multi-step and one-step ahead forecast techniques. The main results suggest that the differences in forecasting ability between the two models are small, however according to the relevant evaluation criteria the unrestricted VAR model in general yields somewhat better forecast than the VECM model when forecasting Swedish exports over the chosen forecast horizons.

For the last four decades, the semiconductor industry has experienced an exponential growth. According to the ITRS, as we advance into the era of nanotechnology, the traditional CMOS electronics is reaching its physical and economical limits. The main objective of this thesis is to explore novel design opportunities for reconfigurable architectures given by the emerging technologies. On the one hand, the thesis will focus on the traditional FPGA architecture scheme, and survey some structural improvements brought by disruptive technologies. While the memories and routing structures occupy the major part of the FPGAs total area and mainly limit the performances, 3-D integration appears as a good candidate to embed all this circuitry into the metal layers. Configuration and routing circuits based on back-end compatible resistive memories, a monolithic 3-D process flow and a prospective vertical FETs process flow are introduced and assessed within a complete architectural context. On the other hand, the thesis will present some novel architectural schemes for ultra-fine grain computing. The size of the logic elements can be reduced thanks to inherent properties of the technologies, such as the crossbar organization or the controllable polarity of carbon electronics. Considering the granularity of the logic elements, specific fixed and incomplete interconnection topologies are required to prevent the large overhead of a configurable interconnection pattern. To evaluate the potentiality of this new architectural scheme, a specific benchmarking flow will be presented in order to explore the ultra-fine grain architectural design space.

This research paper investigates the causality issue between economic growth rate (GDP) and Information and Communication Technology (ICT) investment in Sweden by applying modern time series techniques. It mainly covers time series analyses of 30 years of Sweden data (1980-2009). During that period, development in Information and communication technology (ICT) infrastructure of Sweden was an evolutionary process based on innovation and technological knowledge. Telecommunication revolution which occurred and developed on the basic idea that economic change can be explained as co-evolution of technologies, institutions and development blocks (such as investment). The other way of describing it as an analysis of a long wave based on telecommunication technological revolution and key factor involved the share of investment in it. Standard tests of Unit roots, Cointegration and Granger Causality tests are presented. The main reason of such study is the assessment of ICT investment influence directly on economic growth. The results provide an interesting aspect that ICT investment share can possibly be a contributing factor to telecommunications infrastructure development but it cannot be as a whole sufficient enough for stimulating economic growth (GDP).It is found that one way causality running from ICT investment to economic growth (GDP) but only at one year lagged values not at other higher lagged values. The lack of long run relationship may be due to the inadequacy in reflecting the full effect of ICT investment in other complementary segments. The other complementary factors of ICT 's infrastructure are quite essential as well in describing economic growth and development level.

Market integration is a frequently discussed topic. This study presents an econometric analysis of the interlinkages between the Swedish, Norwegian, and Finnish coniferous roundwood assortment markets by conducting the Johansen’s co-integration test. It also investigates the directional causality between markets concluded integrated. The data utilised consists of quarterly, nominal prices for pine, and spruce saw logs and pulpwood for each country. Because of issues regarding stationary price series, the co-integration test could only be tested on five markets; Swedish and Norwegian pine saw logs and Swedish, Norwegian and Finnish spruce pulpwood. Swedish and Norwegian pine saw log prices were found integrated according to the Johansen’s test, but no relationship was found when performing the Granger causality test, implying that the underlying assumption of non-stationary prices may not have been fulfilled. No linkages were found concerning the spruce pulpwood markets; neither for all three countries nor bi-variate.

The objectives of this thesis are to: (1) examine if the resource curse exists in the context of Libya; (2) assess the role of institutions in avoiding or minimising the resource curse, and; (3) evaluate institutional and economic reforms required, and the best options to diversify the economy from oil, hence avoid the resource curse in Libya. To achieve these, three approaches are applied, (i) a three country comparative analysis; (ii) Libya country-level time-series analysis, and; (iii) institutional descriptive analysis. This thesis uses time-series data and annual datasets covering 1970-2010. Johansen’s co-integration is used to establish the long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables in the models. The Johansen co-integration test, based on the Trace and Maximum Eigenvalue statistics, is applied. In the first approach, the three case studies included in the study are Nigeria, Norway and UAE, with outcomes suggesting that Norway managed to avoid the Dutch disease, the UAE show no major signs of the resource curse, Norway and the UAE have largely managed to overcome Dutch disease, while Nigeria suffers a management curse. The first model suggests that Libya may experience a resource curse, but this may not be as a result of an appreciation of the real exchange rate. A 1% increase in the oil price will cause the Libyan exchange rate to increase (depreciate) by 1.41%. The country could potentially suffer from Dutch disease, but no evidence can be brought by the first model alone. In an attempt to reinforce the first analysis, the second model examined the sectoral impacts of the Dutch disease. Three relations are estimated; tradable sectors (manufacturing and agricultural), and non-tradable sectors (construction and services). These were all found to have been affected by oil revenue. This therefore confirms the existence of Dutch disease in Libya. The descriptive statistics analysis is used alongside five governance indicators: political stability, government effectiveness, and regulatory quality, rule of law and control of corruption. It is concluded that the quality of institutions in Libya affects economic growth negatively. The study holds several implications for policy-makers.

An increased mortgage cap was introduced in 2010, and as of May 1st 2016 an amortization requirement was introduced in an attempt to slow down house price development in Sweden. Fluctuations in the house prices can significantly influence macroeconomic stability, and with house prices in Stockholm rising even more rapidly than Sweden as a whole makes the understanding of Stockholm’s dynamics very important, especially for policy implications. Stockholm house prices between the first quarter of 1996 and the fourth quarter of 2015 is therefore investigated using a Vector Error Correction framework. This approach allows a separation between the long run equilibrium price and short run dynamics. Decreases in the real mortgage rate and increased real financial wealth seem to be most important in explaining rising house prices. Increased real construction costs and increased real disposable income also seem to have an effect. The estimated models suggest that around 40-50 percent, on average, of a short-term deviation from the long-run equilibrium price is closed within a year. As of the last quarter 2015, real house prices are significantly higher compared to the long run equilibrium price modeled. The deviation is found to be around 6-7 percent.