Submitted by Automa??o e Estat?stica (sst@bczm.ufrn.br) on 2017-11-22T21:41:55Z No. of bitstreams: 1 AntonioFelipeDePaulaJunior_TESE.pdf: 991187 bytes, checksum: b7541e9fbc06615f893960539658a6d4 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Arlan Eloi Leite Silva (eloihistoriador@yahoo.com.br) on 2017-11-24T23:51:13Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 AntonioFelipeDePaulaJunior_TESE.pdf: 991187 bytes, checksum: b7541e9fbc06615f893960539658a6d4 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-11-24T23:51:13Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 AntonioFelipeDePaulaJunior_TESE.pdf: 991187 bytes, checksum: b7541e9fbc06615f893960539658a6d4 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-06-01 / A produ??o de sal marinho no Rio Grande do Norte contribuiu significativamente para o desenvolvimento econ?mico e social do estado, por meio de gera??o de empregos, rendas e tributos pagos aos cofres p?blicos. Dependente de condi??es clim?ticas ideais, melhores desempenhos para essa atividade s?o observados em regi?es de latitudes baixas, caracterizadas por temperaturas elevadas e ventos constantes, al?m de baixo volume de precipita??o. Assim, sendo a produ??o de sal marinho dependente de condi??es clim?ticas, analisar, estatisticamente, as influ?ncias que o clima, suas variabilidades e mudan?as exercem sobre a produ??o desse mineral, foi o objetivo principal dessa tese. Para isso, a tese foi dividida em dois artigos. No artigo primeiro, o objetivo principal foi analisar a correla??o entre essas vari?veis clim?ticas e a produ??o de sal marinho, bem como estimar a intensidade com que varia o volume desse mineral em consequ?ncias de mudan?as clim?ticas, no munic?pio de Macau-RN. Os resultados mostraram correla??es positivas entre o volume produzido de sal marinho com a temperatura, horas de insola??o, evapora??o e velocidade do vento e, correla??es negativas com a precipita??o e umidade relativa. Em rela??o ?s mudan?as clim?ticas, constatou-se aumento no volume de sal marinho pelos quatro cen?rios de mudan?as clim?ticas previstas pelo IPCC no munic?pio de Macau-RN, sendo que o melhor cen?rio para a ind?stria de sal por evapora??o solar ? o RCP8.5. No artigo dois, o objetivo principal foi estimar o impacto econ?mico das mudan?as clim?ticas sobre a produ??o de sal marinho. Os resultados mostraram que as mudan?as clim?ticas poder?o impactar positivamente as receitas de vendas das ind?strias de sal marino no RN, em qualquer cen?rio de mudan?as clim?ticas, variando o aumento m?dio anual sobre essas receitas de vendas de 9,1227% pelo cen?rio RCP2.6 a 16,5350% pelo cen?rio RCP8.5, sendo poss?vel afirmar que as mudan?as clim?ticas projetadas pelo IPCC ir?o impactar positivamente a produ??o de sal marinho. / The production of sea salt in Rio Grande do Norte has contributed significantly to the social and economic development of the State, creating jobs, increasing incomes and adding to the public revenue through taxes. Climatic conditions that favor this activity are observed in regions of low latitude characterized by high temperatures and constant winds, as well as low precipitation. Thus, as the production of sea salt depends on climate conditions, the aim of this thesis is to analyze, statistically, how the influences of the climate variability and changes affect the production of this mineral. To this end, the thesis comprises two articles. In the first article, the main objective was to analyze the correlation between these climatic variables and the production of sea salt, as well as estimate the intensity with which the volume of this mineral varies as a result of climate change in the city of Macau, RN. The results show positive correlations between the volume of sea salt production and the temperature, hours of sunlight, evaporation and wind speed, and negative correlations with precipitation and relative humidity. In relation to climate changes, findings showed an increase in the volume of sea salt in four scenarios of climate change, which were presented by the IPCC, in the city of Macau, RN. Results showed that the best scenario for the salt industry proved to be solar evaporation at a rate of RCP8.5. In the second article, the main objective was to gauge the economic impact of climate change on sea salt production. The results showed that climate changes will generate a positive impact on the income from sales in the sea salt industry in RN, in all of the climate change scenarios. The average annual increase in income from sales in this industry is estimated at varying from 9.12% in scenario RCP2.6 to 16.53% in scenario RCP8.5, making it possible to affirm that the sea salt industry in RN will benefit from climate changes.