The first part of this thesis is concerned with trend modelling of breast cancer mortality rates. By using an age-period-cohort model, the relative contributions of period and cohort effects are evaluated once the unquestionable existence of the age effect is controlled for. The result of such a modelling gives indications in the search for explanatory factors. While this type of modelling is usually performed with 5-year period intervals, the use of 1-year period data, as in Paper I, may be more appropriate. The main theme of the thesis is the evaluation of the ability to detect signals in x-ray images of breasts. Early detection is the most important tool to achieve a reduction in breast cancer mortality rates, and computer-aided detection systems can be an aid for the radiologist in the diagnosing process. The evaluation of computer-aided detection systems includes the estimation of distributions. One way of obtaining estimates of distributions when no assumptions are at hand is kernel density estimation, or the adaptive version thereof that smoothes to a greater extent in the tails of the distribution, thereby reducing spurious effects caused by outliers. The technique is described in the context of econometrics in Paper II and then applied together with the bootstrap in the breast cancer research area in Papers III-V. Here, estimates of the sampling distributions of different parameters are used in a new model for free-response receiver operating characteristic (FROC) curve analysis. Compared to earlier work in the field, this model benefits from the advantage of not assuming independence of detections in the images, and in particular, from the incorporation of the sampling distribution of the system's operating point. Confidence intervals obtained from the proposed model with different approaches with respect to the estimation of the distributions and the confidence interval extraction methods are compared in terms of coverage and length of the intervals by simulations of lifelike data.

In this thesis, estimation in simple linear regression model with one-fold nested error is studied. To estimate the fixed effect parameters, generalized least squares and maximum likelihood estimation procedures are reviewed. Moreover, Minimum Norm Quadratic Estimator (MINQE), Almost Unbiased Estimator (AUE) and Restricted Maximum Likelihood Estimator (REML) of variance of primary units are derived. Also, confidence intervals for the fixed effect parameters and the variance components are studied. Finally, the aforesaid estimation techniques and confidence intervals are applied to a real-life data and the results are presented

Este trabalho tem como objetivo calcular intervalos de confiança para altos quantis oriundos de distribuições de caudas pesadas. Para isso, utilizamos os métodos da aproximação pela distribuição normal, razão de verossimilhanças, {\\it data tilting} e gama generalizada. Obtivemos, através de simulações, que os intervalos calculados a partir do método da gama generalizada apresentam probabilidades de cobertura bem próximas do nível de confiança, com amplitudes médias menores do que os outros três métodos, para dados gerados da distribuição Weibull. Todavia, para dados gerados da distribuição Fréchet, o método da razão de verossimilhanças fornece os melhores intervalos. Aplicamos os métodos utilizados neste trabalho a um conjunto de dados reais, referentes aos pagamentos de indenizações, em reais, de seguros de incêndio, de um determinado grupo de seguradoras no Brasil, no ano de 2003 / In this work, confidence intervals for high quantiles from heavy-tailed distributions were computed. More specifically, four methods, namely, normal approximation method, likelihood ratio method, data tilting method and generalised gamma method are used. A simulation study with data generated from Weibull distribution has shown that the generalised gamma method has better coverage probabilities with the smallest average length intervals. However, from data generated from Fréchet distribution, the likelihood ratio method gives the better intervals. Moreover, the methods used in this work are applied on a real data set from 1758 Brazilian fire claims

Dementia disorders are difficult to detect in the early stages of the disease. Therefore, it is of importance to develop new methods in early diagnostics. The Uppsala Dalarna Dementia and Gait Study has established a new method in diagnosing early stages of cognitive impairments. The new method Timed-Up-and-Go (TUG) dual-task, combines a gait test with a verbal task. This thesis analyses nine TUG variables for healthy controls and discusses differences between two age groups, subjects younger than 72 years and subjects 72 years or older. Reliability of the new method is the primary focus point and is assessed using Intraclass Correlation Coefficients (ICC) and Bland-Altman plots. Normative reference values for the continuous variables are estimated with the help of bootstrap confidence intervals for the 2.5 and 97.5 percentiles. The results show that the three variables measuring the time to complete the test have good to excellent reliability, while variables that measure combinations of gait and verbal tasks show poor to moderate reliability. The lower reliability for these variables could be explained by them being ratios or differences of other variables. Differences in reliability can be seen between the age groups, where younger subjects have lower reliability partly due to homogeneity. Results show that the reference values of healthy controls are different for the two age groups.

The dissertation considers construction of confidence intervals for a cumulative distribution function F(z) and its inverse at some fixed points z and u on the basis of an i.i.d. sample where the sample size is relatively small. The sample is modeled as having the flexible Generalized Gamma distribution with all three parameters being unknown. This approach can be viewed as an alternative to nonparametric techniques which do not specify distribution of X and lead to less efficient procedures. The confidence intervals are constructed by objective Bayesian methods and use the Jeffreys noninformative prior. Performance of the resulting confidence intervals is studied via Monte Carlo simulations and compared to the performance of nonparametric confidence intervals based on binomial proportion. In addition, techniques for change point detection are analyzed and further evaluated via Monte Carlo simulations. The effect of a change point on the interval estimators is studied both analytically and via Monte Carlo simulations.

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Approved for public release; distribution in unlimited. / Budget limitations have reduced the number of military components available for testing, and time constraints have reduced the amount of time available for actual testing resulting in many items still operating at the end of test cycles. These two factors produce small test populations (small sample size) with "heavily" censored data. The assumption of "normal approximation" for estimates based on these small sample sizes reduces the accuracy of confidence bounds of the probability plots and the associated quantities. This creates a problem in acquisition analysis because the confidence in the probability estimates influences the number of spare parts required to support a mission or deployment or determines the length of warranty ensuring proper operation of systems. This thesis develops a method that simulates small samples with censored data and examines the error of the Fisher-Matrix (FM) and the Likelihood Ratio Bounds (LRB) confidence methods of two test populations (size 10 and 20) with three, five, seven and nine observed failures for the Weibull distribution. This thesis includes a Monte Carlo simulation code written in S-Plus that can be modified by the user to meet their particular needs for any sampling and censoring scheme. To illustrate the approach, the thesis includes a catalog of corrected confidence bounds for the Weibull distribution, which can be used by acquisition analysts to adjust their confidence bounds and obtain a more accurate representation for warranty and reliability work. / Civilian, Department of the Air Force

A dissertação apresenta os resultados obtidos com o desenvolvimento de um programa de computação abrangente em interface gráfica para ambiente Windows visando a estimativa de parâmetros de interesse genético-populacional (freqüências alélicas, respectivos erros-padrão e intervalos de confiança a 95%) e o teste de hipóteses genéticas (equilíbrio de Hardy-Weinberg e análise de estruturação hierárquica populacional), por meio de métodos tradicionais e por meio de testes exatos obtidos com procedimentos de simulação (bootstrap e jackknife). / The dissertation presents the results obtained with the development of a comprehensive computation program (software), running on the Windows (MS) graphic interface, with the aim of: (a) estimating parameters of population genetic interest (such as allelic frequencies and their corresponding standard errors and 95% confidence intervals); and (b) performing the testing of genetic hypotheses (Hardy-Weinberg population ratios and analysis of population hierarchical structure) by means of traditional methods as well as through exact tests obtained with computer simulation procedures (bootstrap and jackknife methods).

La segmentation d'images est un domaine important dans le traitement d'images et un grand nombre d'approches différentes ent été développées pendant ces dernières décennies. L'approche des contours actifs est un des plus populaires. Dans ce cadre, cette thèse vise à développer des algorithmes robustes, qui peuvent segmenter des images avec des inhomogénéités d'intensité. Nous nous concentrons sur l'étude des énergies externes basées région dans le cadre des ensembles de niveaux. Précisément, nous abordons la difficulté de choisir l'échelle de la fenêtre spatiale qui définit la localité. Notre contribution principale est d'avoir proposé une échelle adaptative pour les méthodes de segmentation basées sur les statistiques locales. Nous utilisons l'approche d'Intersection des Intervalles de Confiance pour définir une échelle position-dépendante pour l'estimation des statistiques image. L'échelle est optimale dans le sens où elle donne le meilleur compromis entre le biais et la variance de l'approximation polynomiale locale de l'image observée conditionnellement à la segmentation actuelle. De plus, pour le model de segmentation basé sur une interprétation Bahésienne avec deux noyaux locaux, nous suggérons de considérer leurs valeurs séparément. Notre proposition donne une segmentation plus lisse avec moins de délocalisations que la méthode originale. Des expériences comparatives de notre proposition à d'autres méthodes de segmentation basées sur des statistiques locales sont effectuées. Les résultats quantitatifs réalisés sur des images ultrasonores de simulation, montrent que la méthode proposée est plus robuste au phénomène d'atténuation. Des expériences sur des images réelles montrent également l'utilité de notre approche. / Image segmentation is an important research area in image processing and a large number of different approaches have been developed over the last few decades. The active contour approach is one of the most popular among them. Within this framework, this thesis aims at developing robust algorithms, which can segment images with intensity inhomogeneities. We focus on the study of region-based external energies within the level set framework. We study the use of local image statistics for the design of external energies. Precisely, we address the difficulty of choosing the scale of the spatial window that defines locality. Our main contribution is to propose an adaptive scale for local region-based segmen¬tation methods. We use the Intersection of Confidence Intervals approach to define this pixel-dependent scale for the estimation of local image statistics. The scale is optimal in the sense that it gives the best trade-off between the bias and the variance of a Local Polynomial Approximation of the observed image conditional on the current segmenta¬tion. Additionally, for the segmentation model based on a Bayesian interpretation with two local kernels, we suggest to consider their values separately. Our proposition gives a smoother segmentation with less mis-localisations Chan the original method.Comparative experiments of our method to other local region-based segmentation me¬thods are carried out. The quantitative results, on simulated ultrasound B-mode images, show that the proposed scale selection strategy gives a robust solution to the intensity inhomogeneity artifact of this imaging modality. More general experiments on real images also demonstrate the usefulness of our approach.