Submitted by Luciana Ferreira (lucgeral@gmail.com) on 2014-12-18T12:34:27Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação - Davi Mello Cunha Crescente Alves - 2013.pdf: 853772 bytes, checksum: 72911b50f56ac854e4084c11c9191154 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Luciana Ferreira (lucgeral@gmail.com) on 2014-12-18T14:28:20Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação - Davi Mello Cunha Crescente Alves - 2013.pdf: 853772 bytes, checksum: 72911b50f56ac854e4084c11c9191154 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2014-12-18T14:28:20Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação - Davi Mello Cunha Crescente Alves - 2013.pdf: 853772 bytes, checksum: 72911b50f56ac854e4084c11c9191154 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-12-18 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES / The White-Nose syndrome is an emergent infectious disease that had already killed almost six millions North American bats and spread more than two thousand kilometers. Even so, studies about their possible impacts upon hosts are still lacking, principally upon all the susceptible North American bats. We predicted the consequences of the WNS spread in the North American hosts by generating an environmental suitability map for the disease, and then, we overlaid with the extension of occurrence of all hibernating bats in North America. We assumed that all intersection localities will somehow negatively affect bat’s local populations, and we reassessed their conservation status based on their potential population reduction. 16% of the North American hibernating bat fauna were considered threatened under this WNS potential spread. We believe our results could contribute with governments conservation actions. / (Sem resumo)

As Unidades de Conservação (UCs) urbanas vêm sendo pressionadas e ameaçadas por atividades antrópicas, resultando em novos desafios de gestão e governança. Desse modo, buscou-se analisar os procedimentos utilizados para mitigação das principais pressões e ameaças em UCs urbanas e identificar as principais variáveis que interferem no alcance dos seus objetivos. Para tanto, foram realizadas entrevistas semiestruturadas com as equipes de gestão de UCs urbanas nacionais (Parques Estaduais do Jaraguá e Cantareira, Estações Ecológicas de Ribeirão Preto e Assis) e internacionais (Sítios Natura 2000 Lendspitz-Maiernigg, Sonian Forest e Parque Nacional Zuid-Kennemerland), onde foram avaliadas as principais pressões e ameaças enfrentadas por essas áreas, bem como as ações de conservação que vem sendo adotadas. As entrevistas foram direcionadas por questões adaptadas da Metodologia RAPPAM (Rapid Assessment and Prioritization of Protected Area Management) e para a análise dos dados foi utilizada a técnica Análise de Conteúdo. Além das entrevistas, foram analisadas as orientações e melhores práticas propostas pela IUCN (União Internacional para a Conservação da Natureza), instituição reconhecida internacionalmente por propor recomendações relevantes para áreas protegidas mundiais. Os resultados indicam uma série de pressões e ameaças comuns aos sete casos de estudos (e.g. desenvolvimento urbano do entorno; estradas e rodovias), bem como pressões e ameaças que ocorrem somente nos casos de estudos nacionais (e.g. incêndios florestais e ocupações ilegais;) e internacionais (transmissão de doenças entre animais silvestres). Também observou-se que todas as equipes de gestão buscaram implementar procedimentos para mitigação em seus territórios, tais como ações de: proteção (e.g. fiscalização e monitoramento); manejo (e.g. controle de espécies exóticas invasoras); operacionalização (e.g. articulação com diferentes instituições); integração (e.g. sensibilização ambiental); uso público (e.g. atividades turísticas de baixo impacto ambiental); e conhecimento (e.g. promoção de pesquisas científicas). As principais variáveis que prejudicam o cumprimento dos seus objetivos são: recursos humanos e financeiros insuficientes, baixa transparência e participação social nos processos de tomada de decisão. Observa-se que a IUCN propõem cinco princípios para uma boa governança (i.e. legitimidade e voz; direção; desempenho; responsabilidade e equidade e direitos) e diversas práticas para uma gestão adequada (e.g. promover uma gestão dinâmica, ativa e planejada, seguindo concepções racionais, adaptativas e participativas). Desse modo, conclui-se que os responsáveis pelas UCs urbanas devem promover o empoderamento dos conselhos, para que estes funcionem adequadamente como fóruns de discussão e participação, bem como devem integrar essas áreas com seus territórios, através de legislações e diretrizes específicas. A adoção de práticas de governança e gestão adequadas, exequíveis, dinâmicas e participativas em UCs urbanas, são fundamentais para a manutenção de ecossistemas saudáveis, os quais formam a espinha dorsal de um futuro mais sustentável. Além disso, para o cumprimento das propostas discutidas, entende-se como imprescindível que as autoridades governamentais incorporem em suas legislações a definição de UCs urbanas, reconhecendo a sua importância e garantindo com que estas áreas recebam maiores atenções / Urban protected areas (PAs) have been under pressure and threatened by anthropic activities, resulting in new management and governance challenges.Thus, we aimed to analyze the procedures used to mitigate the main pressures and threats in urban PAs and to identify the main variables that interfere with the achievement of their objectives. Therefore, we did semi-structured interviews with the management staff of national (State Parks Jaraguá and Cantareira and Ecological Stations of Ribeirão Preto and Assis) and international urban PAs (Natura 2000 Sites Lendspitz-Maiernigg, Sonian Forest and National Park Zuid-Kennemerland). We evaluated, together with their staff, the main pressures and threats faced by the PAs, as well as we analyzed the conservation actions they adopted. The interviews were directed by questions adapted from the Rapid Assessment and Prioritization of Protected Area Management (RAPPAM) Methodology, and to analyze the data we used the Content Analysis technique. In addition to the interviews, we analyzed the guidelines for best practices proposed by the IUCN (International Union for Conservation of Nature), an internationally recognized institution for proposing relevant recommendations to global protected areas. The results indicate a series of pressures and threats common to the seven PAs (e.g. urban development and establishment of roads and highways), as well as pressures and threats found only in the national PAs (e.g. forest fires and illegal occupations) and in the international PAs (e.g. transmission of diseases between wild animals). It was also noted that all case studies adopted six types of conservation actions, such as: protection (e.g. surveillance and monitoring); management (e.g. control of invasive alien species); operationalization (e.g. articulation with different institutions); integration (e.g. environmental awareness); public use (e.g. promotion of tourism and recreational activities of low environmental impact); and knowledge (e.g. promotion of scientific research). The main variables that undermine the fulfillment of urban PAs objectives are insufficient human and financial resources, low transparency and social participation in decision-making processes. We observed that IUCN proposes five principles for good governance (i.e. legitimacy and voice, direction, performance, accountability, equity and rights) and various practices for appropriate management (e.g. promote a dynamic, active and planned management, following rational, adaptive and participative conceptions). Thus, we concluded that those responsible for urban PAs should promote the empowerment of their councils, so that they function properly as discussion forums, as well as must integrate these areas with their territories, through specific legislation. The adoption of appropriate, feasible, dynamic and participatory governance and management practices in urban PAs are fundamental to the maintenance of healthy ecosystems, which form the backbone of a more sustainable future. In addition, to achieve the proposals discussed, it is essential that government authorities incorporate into their legislation the definition of urban PAs, recognizing their importance and ensuring that these areas receive greater attention

As Unidades de Conservação (UCs) urbanas vêm sendo pressionadas e ameaçadas por atividades antrópicas, resultando em novos desafios de gestão e governança. Desse modo, buscou-se analisar os procedimentos utilizados para mitigação das principais pressões e ameaças em UCs urbanas e identificar as principais variáveis que interferem no alcance dos seus objetivos. Para tanto, foram realizadas entrevistas semiestruturadas com as equipes de gestão de UCs urbanas nacionais (Parques Estaduais do Jaraguá e Cantareira, Estações Ecológicas de Ribeirão Preto e Assis) e internacionais (Sítios Natura 2000 Lendspitz-Maiernigg, Sonian Forest e Parque Nacional Zuid-Kennemerland), onde foram avaliadas as principais pressões e ameaças enfrentadas por essas áreas, bem como as ações de conservação que vem sendo adotadas. As entrevistas foram direcionadas por questões adaptadas da Metodologia RAPPAM (Rapid Assessment and Prioritization of Protected Area Management) e para a análise dos dados foi utilizada a técnica Análise de Conteúdo. Além das entrevistas, foram analisadas as orientações e melhores práticas propostas pela IUCN (União Internacional para a Conservação da Natureza), instituição reconhecida internacionalmente por propor recomendações relevantes para áreas protegidas mundiais. Os resultados indicam uma série de pressões e ameaças comuns aos sete casos de estudos (e.g. desenvolvimento urbano do entorno; estradas e rodovias), bem como pressões e ameaças que ocorrem somente nos casos de estudos nacionais (e.g. incêndios florestais e ocupações ilegais;) e internacionais (transmissão de doenças entre animais silvestres). Também observou-se que todas as equipes de gestão buscaram implementar procedimentos para mitigação em seus territórios, tais como ações de: proteção (e.g. fiscalização e monitoramento); manejo (e.g. controle de espécies exóticas invasoras); operacionalização (e.g. articulação com diferentes instituições); integração (e.g. sensibilização ambiental); uso público (e.g. atividades turísticas de baixo impacto ambiental); e conhecimento (e.g. promoção de pesquisas científicas). As principais variáveis que prejudicam o cumprimento dos seus objetivos são: recursos humanos e financeiros insuficientes, baixa transparência e participação social nos processos de tomada de decisão. Observa-se que a IUCN propõem cinco princípios para uma boa governança (i.e. legitimidade e voz; direção; desempenho; responsabilidade e equidade e direitos) e diversas práticas para uma gestão adequada (e.g. promover uma gestão dinâmica, ativa e planejada, seguindo concepções racionais, adaptativas e participativas). Desse modo, conclui-se que os responsáveis pelas UCs urbanas devem promover o empoderamento dos conselhos, para que estes funcionem adequadamente como fóruns de discussão e participação, bem como devem integrar essas áreas com seus territórios, através de legislações e diretrizes específicas. A adoção de práticas de governança e gestão adequadas, exequíveis, dinâmicas e participativas em UCs urbanas, são fundamentais para a manutenção de ecossistemas saudáveis, os quais formam a espinha dorsal de um futuro mais sustentável. Além disso, para o cumprimento das propostas discutidas, entende-se como imprescindível que as autoridades governamentais incorporem em suas legislações a definição de UCs urbanas, reconhecendo a sua importância e garantindo com que estas áreas recebam maiores atenções / Urban protected areas (PAs) have been under pressure and threatened by anthropic activities, resulting in new management and governance challenges.Thus, we aimed to analyze the procedures used to mitigate the main pressures and threats in urban PAs and to identify the main variables that interfere with the achievement of their objectives. Therefore, we did semi-structured interviews with the management staff of national (State Parks Jaraguá and Cantareira and Ecological Stations of Ribeirão Preto and Assis) and international urban PAs (Natura 2000 Sites Lendspitz-Maiernigg, Sonian Forest and National Park Zuid-Kennemerland). We evaluated, together with their staff, the main pressures and threats faced by the PAs, as well as we analyzed the conservation actions they adopted. The interviews were directed by questions adapted from the Rapid Assessment and Prioritization of Protected Area Management (RAPPAM) Methodology, and to analyze the data we used the Content Analysis technique. In addition to the interviews, we analyzed the guidelines for best practices proposed by the IUCN (International Union for Conservation of Nature), an internationally recognized institution for proposing relevant recommendations to global protected areas. The results indicate a series of pressures and threats common to the seven PAs (e.g. urban development and establishment of roads and highways), as well as pressures and threats found only in the national PAs (e.g. forest fires and illegal occupations) and in the international PAs (e.g. transmission of diseases between wild animals). It was also noted that all case studies adopted six types of conservation actions, such as: protection (e.g. surveillance and monitoring); management (e.g. control of invasive alien species); operationalization (e.g. articulation with different institutions); integration (e.g. environmental awareness); public use (e.g. promotion of tourism and recreational activities of low environmental impact); and knowledge (e.g. promotion of scientific research). The main variables that undermine the fulfillment of urban PAs objectives are insufficient human and financial resources, low transparency and social participation in decision-making processes. We observed that IUCN proposes five principles for good governance (i.e. legitimacy and voice, direction, performance, accountability, equity and rights) and various practices for appropriate management (e.g. promote a dynamic, active and planned management, following rational, adaptive and participative conceptions). Thus, we concluded that those responsible for urban PAs should promote the empowerment of their councils, so that they function properly as discussion forums, as well as must integrate these areas with their territories, through specific legislation. The adoption of appropriate, feasible, dynamic and participatory governance and management practices in urban PAs are fundamental to the maintenance of healthy ecosystems, which form the backbone of a more sustainable future. In addition, to achieve the proposals discussed, it is essential that government authorities incorporate into their legislation the definition of urban PAs, recognizing their importance and ensuring that these areas receive greater attention

<p>U&nbsp; radu&nbsp; je&nbsp; analizirana&nbsp; efektivnost&nbsp; za&scaron;tićenih područja&nbsp; Srbije&nbsp; u&nbsp; sada&scaron;njosti&nbsp; i&nbsp; budućnosti&nbsp; na osnovu&nbsp; zastupljenosti&nbsp; povoljnih&nbsp; stani&scaron;ta&nbsp; i centara&nbsp; diverziteta&nbsp; 116&nbsp; običnih&nbsp; vrsta&nbsp; ptica odabranih na osnovu 11 kriterijuma. Zasebno su evaluirana&nbsp; za&scaron;tićena&nbsp; prirodna&nbsp; dobara, međunarodno značajna područja za ptice (IBA) i mreža nastala preklapanjem dva tipa za&scaron;tićenih područja.&nbsp; Povoljna&nbsp; stani&scaron;ta&nbsp; istraživanih&nbsp; vrsta utvrđena su modelovanjem distribucije vrsta uz pomoć&nbsp; MaxEnt&nbsp; pristupa,&nbsp; a&nbsp; modeli&nbsp; distribucije projektovani&nbsp; su&nbsp; na&nbsp; četiri&nbsp; različita&nbsp; scenarija klimatskih&nbsp; promena&nbsp; u&nbsp; budućnosti&nbsp; (2050. godina).&nbsp; IBA&nbsp; mreža&nbsp; pokazala&nbsp; se&nbsp; kao&nbsp; značajno<br />efektivnija za za&scaron;titu stani&scaron;ta istraživanih vrsta i centara&nbsp; njihvog&nbsp; diverziteta&nbsp; u&nbsp; odnosu&nbsp; na&nbsp; mrežu za&scaron;tićenih&nbsp; prirodnih&nbsp; dobara,&nbsp; a&nbsp; slična&nbsp; situacija predviđena&nbsp; je&nbsp; i&nbsp; u&nbsp; budućnosti.&nbsp; Oba&nbsp; tipa za&scaron;tićenih&nbsp; područja&nbsp; pokrivala&nbsp; su&nbsp; u&nbsp; proseku srazmerno&nbsp; mali&nbsp; procenat&nbsp; povoljnih&nbsp; stani&scaron;ta istraživanih&nbsp; vrsta&nbsp; (za&scaron;tićena&nbsp; prirodna&nbsp; dobra&nbsp; &ndash;<br />10,4%;&nbsp; IBA&nbsp; &ndash;&nbsp; 21,9%)&nbsp; i&nbsp; dovela&nbsp; su&nbsp; do ostvarivanja konzervacionih ciljeva malog broja vrsta (za&scaron;tićena prirodna dobra&nbsp; &ndash;&nbsp; 11; IBA&nbsp; -&nbsp; 37), dok&nbsp; su&nbsp; centri&nbsp; diverziteta&nbsp; istraživanih&nbsp; vrstasrazmerno&nbsp; slabo&nbsp; zastupljeni&nbsp; unutar&nbsp; obe&nbsp; mreže (za&scaron;tićena&nbsp; prirodna&nbsp; dobra&nbsp; &ndash;&nbsp; 9,8%;&nbsp; IBA&nbsp; &ndash; 25,4%).&nbsp; Za&scaron;tićena&nbsp; područja&nbsp; nisu&nbsp; pokazale<br />značajno&nbsp; veću&nbsp; efektivnost&nbsp; za&nbsp; konzervaciono prioritetnt&nbsp; vrste&nbsp; i&nbsp; njihov&nbsp; diverzitet.&nbsp; Za&scaron;tićena prirodna&nbsp; dobra&nbsp; i&nbsp; IBA&nbsp; mreža&nbsp; u&nbsp; Srbiji&nbsp; značajno bolje&nbsp; pokrivaju&nbsp; stani&scaron;ta&nbsp; i&nbsp; centre&nbsp; diverziteta &scaron;umskih vrsta i vrsta kamenjara, klisura i litica, dok&nbsp; su&nbsp; povoljna&nbsp; stani&scaron;ta&nbsp; i&nbsp; centri&nbsp; diverziteta gnezdarica&nbsp; poljoprivrednih&nbsp; stani&scaron;ta,&nbsp; naselja&nbsp; i vodenih&nbsp; stani&scaron;ta&nbsp; izrazito&nbsp; slabo&nbsp; zastupljena. Stani&scaron;ta&nbsp; gnezdarica&nbsp; nizijskih&nbsp; poljoprivrednih<br />stani&scaron;ta&nbsp; naročito&nbsp; su&nbsp; slabo&nbsp; zastupljena&nbsp; unutar za&scaron;tićenih&nbsp; prirodnih&nbsp; dobara&nbsp; i&nbsp; IBA&nbsp; mreže,&nbsp; koja za&nbsp; ovu&nbsp; grupu&nbsp; nisu&nbsp; dovela&nbsp; do&nbsp; postizanja konzervacionih&nbsp; ciljeva.&nbsp; Razlike&nbsp; u&nbsp; efektivnosti za&scaron;tićenih&nbsp; područja&nbsp; za&nbsp; gnezdarice&nbsp; različitih tipova&nbsp; stani&scaron;ta&nbsp; u&nbsp; budućnosti&nbsp; će&nbsp; se&nbsp; generalno povećavati,&nbsp; usled&nbsp; predviđenog&nbsp; smanjivanja<br />areala većine &scaron;umskih vrsta koje će se povlačiti u&nbsp; za&scaron;titom&nbsp; bolje&nbsp; pokrivene&nbsp; planinske&nbsp; predele&nbsp; i &scaron;irenja areala većine gnezdarica poljoprivrednih i&nbsp; vodenih&nbsp; stani&scaron;ta&nbsp; na&nbsp; neza&scaron;tićena&nbsp; nizijska područja. Za deo vrsta među kojima dominiraju<br />gnezdarice&nbsp; brdsko-planinskih&nbsp; &scaron;umskih&nbsp; i&nbsp; drugih prirodnih&nbsp; stani&scaron;ta&nbsp; glavna&nbsp; strategija&nbsp; za&scaron;tite podrazumeva&nbsp; precizno&nbsp; pro&scaron;irenje&nbsp; granica sada&scaron;njih&nbsp; za&scaron;tićenih&nbsp; područja&nbsp; uz&nbsp; upravljanje orentisano&nbsp; ka&nbsp; očuvanju&nbsp; prirodnih&nbsp; stani&scaron;ta&nbsp; i smanjenju&nbsp; iskori&scaron;ćavanja&nbsp; resursa.&nbsp; Sa&nbsp; druge strane,&nbsp; za&nbsp; većinu&nbsp; gnezdarica&nbsp; poljoprivrednih&nbsp; i<br />travnih stani&scaron;ta, naročito u nizijskim predelima, efektivna&nbsp; strategija&nbsp; bila&nbsp; bi&nbsp;&nbsp; definisanje&nbsp; potpuno novih&nbsp; i&nbsp; prostranih&nbsp; za&scaron;tićenih&nbsp; područja orijentisanih&nbsp; ka&nbsp; održavanju&nbsp; povoljnog&nbsp; režima upravljanja&nbsp; i&nbsp; kori&scaron;ćenja&nbsp; prostora.&nbsp; Rad&nbsp; ukazuje<br />na velike mogućnosti kori&scaron;ćenja nesistematično prikupljenih&nbsp; podataka&nbsp; profesionalnih&nbsp; i amaterskih&nbsp; ornitologa&nbsp; uz&nbsp; primenu&nbsp; tehnika modelovanja&nbsp; distribucije&nbsp; vrsta,&nbsp; ali&nbsp; nagla&scaron;ava potrebu&nbsp; za&nbsp; pokretanjem&nbsp; &scaron;irokih&nbsp; programa<br />sistematskog&nbsp; popisa,&nbsp; kartiranja&nbsp; i&nbsp; monitoringa običnih vrsta ptica.</p> / <p>The&nbsp; study&nbsp;&nbsp; analyzes&nbsp; the&nbsp; effectiveness&nbsp; of protected areas in Serbia presently as well as in the&nbsp; future,&nbsp; based&nbsp; on&nbsp; the&nbsp; representation&nbsp; of suitable habitats and centers of diversity for 116 common&nbsp; species of&nbsp; birds,&nbsp; selected on the&nbsp; basis of&nbsp; 11&nbsp; criteria.&nbsp; Nationally&nbsp; protected&nbsp; areas, Important&nbsp; Bird&nbsp; and&nbsp; Biodiversity&nbsp; areas&nbsp; (IBAs) and&nbsp; networks formed&nbsp; by overlapping these two types&nbsp; of&nbsp; protected&nbsp; areas&nbsp; have&nbsp; been&nbsp; evaluated separately. Suitable habitats of the species in the study&nbsp; were&nbsp; determined&nbsp; by&nbsp; species&nbsp; distribution modeling&nbsp; using&nbsp; the&nbsp; MaxEnt&nbsp; approach,&nbsp; and&nbsp; the distribution&nbsp; models&nbsp; were&nbsp; projected&nbsp; to&nbsp; four different&nbsp; climate&nbsp; change&nbsp; scenarios&nbsp; in&nbsp; future (year&nbsp; 2050).&nbsp; The&nbsp; IBA&nbsp; network&nbsp; proved&nbsp; to&nbsp; be significantly more effective for the&nbsp; protection of habitats&nbsp; of&nbsp; studied&nbsp; species&nbsp; and&nbsp; centers&nbsp; of&nbsp; their diversity, compared&nbsp; to the network of nationally protected&nbsp; areas,&nbsp; and&nbsp; a&nbsp; similar&nbsp; situation&nbsp; is projected for the future. Both types of protected areas&nbsp; on&nbsp; average&nbsp; covered&nbsp; a&nbsp; relatively&nbsp; small percentage of suitable habitats for most species (10.4%&nbsp; in&nbsp; nationaly&nbsp; protected&nbsp; areas,&nbsp; 21.9%&nbsp; in IBA)&nbsp; and&nbsp; meet&nbsp; conservation&nbsp; goals&nbsp; only&nbsp; for&nbsp; a&nbsp; small&nbsp; number&nbsp; of&nbsp; species&nbsp; (11&nbsp; for&nbsp; nationaly protected&nbsp; areas,&nbsp; 37&nbsp; for&nbsp; IBA).&nbsp; Diversity&nbsp; centers for&nbsp; species&nbsp; in&nbsp; the&nbsp; study&nbsp; are&nbsp; relatively&nbsp; poorlyrepresented within all three networks&nbsp; (9.8% for nationaly&nbsp; protected&nbsp; areas&nbsp; and&nbsp; 25.4%&nbsp; for&nbsp; IBA). Protected&nbsp; areas&nbsp; did&nbsp; not&nbsp; show&nbsp; significantly higher&nbsp; effectiveness&nbsp; for&nbsp; the&nbsp; conservation&nbsp; of priority&nbsp; species&nbsp; and&nbsp; their&nbsp; diversity.&nbsp; Nationaly protected&nbsp; areas&nbsp; and&nbsp; the&nbsp; IBA&nbsp; network&nbsp; in&nbsp; Serbia have&nbsp; a&nbsp; significantly&nbsp; better&nbsp; coverage&nbsp; of&nbsp; habitats and&nbsp; centers&nbsp; of&nbsp; diversity&nbsp; for&nbsp; forest&nbsp; species&nbsp; and species&nbsp; of&nbsp; rocky&nbsp; habitats,&nbsp; cliffs&nbsp; and&nbsp; gorges, while&nbsp; suitable&nbsp; habitats&nbsp; and&nbsp; centers&nbsp; of&nbsp; diversity for breeding birds of farmlands, settlements and aquatic&nbsp; habitats&nbsp; are&nbsp; very&nbsp; poorly&nbsp; represented. Habitats of breeding birds of lowland&nbsp; armlands are&nbsp; particularly&nbsp; poorly&nbsp; represented&nbsp; within protected&nbsp; natural&nbsp; assets&nbsp; and&nbsp; the&nbsp; IBA&nbsp; network, and this measure does not meet the conservation goals for this group of birds. Differences in the effectiveness&nbsp; of&nbsp; protected&nbsp; areas&nbsp; for&nbsp; breeding birds&nbsp; of&nbsp; various&nbsp; habitat&nbsp; types&nbsp; will&nbsp; generally increase&nbsp; in&nbsp; the&nbsp; future,&nbsp; due&nbsp; to&nbsp; the&nbsp; anticipated range decrease&nbsp; for&nbsp; most forest species that will withdraw&nbsp; to&nbsp; the&nbsp; better&nbsp; conserved&nbsp; mountainous areas, whereas range of the majority o f breeding birds&nbsp; of&nbsp; farmland&nbsp; and&nbsp; aquatic&nbsp; habitats&nbsp; will&nbsp; be expanded&nbsp; to&nbsp; unprotected&nbsp; lowland&nbsp; areas.&nbsp; For some&nbsp; of&nbsp; the&nbsp; species,&nbsp; mostly&nbsp; birds&nbsp; of&nbsp; hill&nbsp; and mountain&nbsp; forests and other natural&nbsp; habitats, the main&nbsp; conservation&nbsp; strategy&nbsp; implies&nbsp; precise boundaries&nbsp; extension&nbsp; of&nbsp; the&nbsp; current&nbsp; protected areas&nbsp; with&nbsp; management&nbsp; directed&nbsp; towards preserving&nbsp; natural&nbsp; habitats&nbsp; and&nbsp; reducing&nbsp; the utilization&nbsp; of&nbsp; resources.&nbsp; On&nbsp; the&nbsp; other&nbsp; hand,&nbsp; for most&nbsp; of&nbsp; the&nbsp; farmland&nbsp; and&nbsp; grassland&nbsp; species, especially in the lowlands, an effective strategy would&nbsp; be&nbsp; to&nbsp; define&nbsp; completely&nbsp; new&nbsp; and spacious&nbsp; protected&nbsp; areas&nbsp; oriented&nbsp; towards maintaining a favorable regime for management and&nbsp; landuse. The&nbsp; study&nbsp; demonstrates that there are&nbsp; great&nbsp; possibilities&nbsp; of&nbsp; using&nbsp; nonsystematically&nbsp; collected&nbsp; data&nbsp; from&nbsp; professiona l and&nbsp; amateur&nbsp; ornithologists,&nbsp; for&nbsp; application&nbsp; in species&nbsp; distribution&nbsp; modeling,&nbsp; but&nbsp; also emphasizes&nbsp; the&nbsp; need&nbsp; to&nbsp; launch&nbsp; extensive programs for systematic inventory, mapping and monitoring of common bird species.</p>