This study aimed to develop a causal chain that illustrates the path through which a variety of factors influence consumer financial vulnerability. In order to achieve the stated aim, it was necessary to firstly identify the factors that gave rise to consumers being financially vulnerable. Secondly, the nature of the causal chain between the identified factors was determined. Thirdly, the causes of consumer financial vulnerability according to key informants in the financial services industry were determined. Finally, based on the results of the first three stages, possible explanations for consumer financial vulnerability were provided. Before the construction of the causal chain could be explored, a theoretical framework regarding household financial position as well as financial attitudes and behaviours was provided. The theoretical framework was supported by a description of the linkages through which consumers function and transact in an economy by applying chain reasoning. The chain reasoning was extended by providing financial statements reflecting the results of consumers’ interactions in the macroeconomy with an extract from the national accounts of South Africa presenting the income statements, balance sheets and relevant financial ratios of consumers for the period in which the research was conducted (2008 to 2009). For this study, the explanatory sequential mixed methods design was deemed appropriate to achieve the proposed research objectives. The research process firstly consisted of a quantitative strand where the possible causes for consumer financial vulnerability were identified after which the results were validated with data obtained in the second phase by means of four focus group discussions. To determine the factors giving rise to and establish the causal chain of overall consumer financial vulnerability, regression analysis was conducted. Based on the results of the regression analysis, it became evident that the financial vulnerability chain is not a singular linear process but rather a non-linear process (with contemporaneous and singular linkages) with a variety of factors influencing financial vulnerability, but also influencing each other over time. / Management Accounting / D. Accounting Science

This study investigated the determinants of inflation in South Africa using quarterly data from 1970Q1 to 2015Q4. The study was motivated by recent trends in domestic inflation that has frequently been at the upper end of the target range of between 3% and 6% and the need to guide inflation related policy since 2008. These recent trends raised concerns regarding the effectiveness of the current monetary policy approach in responding to internal and external factors that are significant in determining domestic inflation. Using Error Correction Model (ECM) modelling techniques, empirical results revealed that inflation expectations, labour costs, government expenditure and import prices are positive determinants, while GDP and exchange rates are negative determinants of inflation. To achieve the macroeconomic policy objective of a stable and low inflation rate for South Africa, more emphasis should be placed on anchoring inflation expectations, which was found to be highly significant in determining inflation. / Economics / M. Com. (Economics)

The dissertation consists of four self-contained essays on consumption. Essays 1 and 2 consider different measures of aggregate consumption, and Essays 3 and 4 consider how the distributions of income and wealth affect consumption from a macro and micro perspective, respectively. Essay 1 considers the empirical practice of seemingly interchangeable use of two measures of consumption; total consumption expenditure and consumption expenditure on nondurable goods and services. Using data from Sweden and the US in an error correction model, it is shown that consumption functions based on the two measures exhibit significant differences in several aspects of econometric modelling. Essay 2, coauthored with Thomas Holgersson, considers derivation of a univariate and a multivariate version of a test for asymmetry, based on the third central moment. The logic behind the test is that the dependent variable should correspond to the specification of the econometric model; symmetric with linear models and asymmetric with non-linear models. The main result in the empirical application of the test is that orthodox theory seems to be supported for consumption of both nondurable and durable consumption. The consumption of durables shows little deviation from symmetry in the four-country sample, while the consumption of nondurables is shown to be asymmetric in two out of four cases, the UK and the US. Essay 3 departs from the observation that introducing income uncertainty makes the consumption function concave, implying that the distributions of wealth and income are omitted variables in aggregate Euler equations. This implication is tested through estimation of the distributions over time and augmentation of consumption functions, using Swedish data for 1963-2000. The results show that only the dispersion of wealth is significant, the explanation of which is found in the marked changes of the group of households with negative wealth; a group that according to a concave consumption function has the highest marginal propensity to consume. Essay 4 attempts to empirically specify the nature of the alleged concavity of the consumption function. Using grouped household level Swedish data for 1999-2001, it is shown that the marginal propensity to consume out of current resources, i.e. current income and net wealth, is strictly decreasing in current resources and net wealth, but approximately constant in income. Also, an empirical reciprocal to the stylized theoretical consumption function is estimated, and shown to bear a close resemblance to the theoretical version.

This study aimed to develop a causal chain that illustrates the path through which a variety of factors influence consumer financial vulnerability. In order to achieve the stated aim, it was necessary to firstly identify the factors that gave rise to consumers being financially vulnerable. Secondly, the nature of the causal chain between the identified factors was determined. Thirdly, the causes of consumer financial vulnerability according to key informants in the financial services industry were determined. Finally, based on the results of the first three stages, possible explanations for consumer financial vulnerability were provided. Before the construction of the causal chain could be explored, a theoretical framework regarding household financial position as well as financial attitudes and behaviours was provided. The theoretical framework was supported by a description of the linkages through which consumers function and transact in an economy by applying chain reasoning. The chain reasoning was extended by providing financial statements reflecting the results of consumers’ interactions in the macroeconomy with an extract from the national accounts of South Africa presenting the income statements, balance sheets and relevant financial ratios of consumers for the period in which the research was conducted (2008 to 2009). For this study, the explanatory sequential mixed methods design was deemed appropriate to achieve the proposed research objectives. The research process firstly consisted of a quantitative strand where the possible causes for consumer financial vulnerability were identified after which the results were validated with data obtained in the second phase by means of four focus group discussions. To determine the factors giving rise to and establish the causal chain of overall consumer financial vulnerability, regression analysis was conducted. Based on the results of the regression analysis, it became evident that the financial vulnerability chain is not a singular linear process but rather a non-linear process (with contemporaneous and singular linkages) with a variety of factors influencing financial vulnerability, but also influencing each other over time. / Management Accounting / D. Accounting Science