Uptake of electric vehicles (EVs) is accelerating as governments around the world aim to decarbonize transportation. While EV adoption is widely promoted in Canada, swift and widespread EV adoption will require some degree of controlled charging to mitigate the challenges that EV charging imposes onto the power system, such as increased cost and emissions from electricity generation. In this analysis, the potential benefits of utility controlled charging (UCC) are evaluated for the city of Regina, Saskatchewan, which aims to be 100% renewable by 2050. The flexibility that UCC can contribute, and its effectiveness for integrating variable renewables is tested in configurations with solar resources, wind resources, and a mix of both. A novel modelling methodology is developed to do so, which links a travel demand model (TASHA) and an electricity system production cost model (SILVER), using a novel intermediate charging model to simulate electric vehicle travel behaviour and utility controlled charging. The use of operational models allows for an accurate representation of both travel demand and electricity system operating costs and emissions at a high spatial and temporal resolution. By linking sectoral models in this way, the interactions between the two sectors - transportation and power – can be investigated simultaneously with detailed insight into the two individual sectors. Results show that uncontrolled charging will increase average emissions from the electricity grid, but controlled charging decreases both greenhouse gas emissions as well as operating costs. By shifting vehicle charging to times when renewable energy production is high, UCC reduces operating costs and emissions by 7% compared to uncontrolled charging, without requiring changes to travel scheduling and behaviour. The temporal characteristics of wind generation is found to be more compatible with controlled charging than solar PV, due to its longer generation periods and higher capacity factor in the winter, when demand is also high. / Graduate / 2022-11-19

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Transportsektorn står i dagsläget för cirka en tredjedel av alla växthusgasutsläpp inom Sverige. För att arbeta i linje med Parisavtalet har Sveriges riksdag därmed beslutat att dessa utsläpp ska minska med 70 procent fram till år 2030, relativt de nivåer som uppmättes år 2010. För att uppnå målet och klara klimatomställningen, arbetar man bland annat med att påskynda elektrifieringen av transporter. Detta skulle kunna innebära stora utmaningar för det svenska elnätet, eftersom man inte byggt ut ledningar i samma takt som elbehovet har ökat. I Stockholm har det därför uppstått kapacitetsbrist, som innebär att man inte kan tillgodose regionen med el vid alla tidpunkter under året. Samtidigt kommer man inte kunna bygga ut nya ledningar till Stockholm förrän vi når cirka år 2030.  Syftet med denna studie, är att undersöka hur elektrifieringen av personbilsflottan kan komma att påverka regionnätet i Stockholm år 2030, där det redan idag råder kapacitetsbrist. Metoden som används är baserad på scenariometodik där både kvantitativa och kvalitativa data används för att konstruera två olika huvudscenarion, ett lågscenario där personbilsflottan elektrifieras långsamt och ett högscenario där personbilsflottan elektrifieras snabbt. Genom att utforska hur elbehovet skulle kunna utvecklas fram till år 2030 på timbasis för dessa scenarion, görs en uppskattning över hur många timmar om året som det skulle kunna råda kapacitetsbrist, samt hur stor effektbristen blir vid dessa tillfällen, om allt elbehov ska kunna tillgodoses. Vidare undersöks om även flexibilitetsresurser i hemmaladdningen, kan påverka hur många timmar det råder kapacitetsbrist och hur korrelation ser ut mellan antalet laddbara bilar och kapacitetsbrist.  Resultatet från studien visar att elektrifieringen av personbilsflottan kan leda till stora ansträngningar på elnätet om användare laddar utifrån egna preferenser och därmed okontrollerat, eftersom laddningen sannolikt sammanfaller med tider på dygnet när elbehovet redan är som störst. Vidare ökar antalet timmar med kapacitetsbrist proportionellt mot hur många personbilar som elektrifieras. När flexibilitetsresurser integreras i hemmaladdningen, minskar ansträngningen på elnätet dock betydligt. Att öka incitamenten för att människor ska ändra sina beteenden gällande laddning, kan därmed positiva effekter på elnätet. Men även om flexibilitetresurser integreras i hemmaladdningen, på det sätt som har antagits genomföras i denna studie, visar resultatet att det fortfarande kan uppstå kapacitetsbrist. Det finns därmed fortfarande en risk för att elektrifieringen av personbilsflottan skulle kunna försenas. / The transport sector currently accounts for about a third of all greenhouse gas emissions in Sweden. To work in line with the Paris Agreement, it has thus been decided that these emissions should be reduced by 70 percent by 2030, relative to the levels measured in 2010. To achieve this goal and cope with climate change, the Swedish parliament is, among other things, currently working towards accelerating the electrification of transports. This, in turn, could result in major challenges for the Swedish electricity grid, as power lines have not been expanded at the same rate as the need for electricity has increased. In Stockholm, it has become a problem with a lack of capacity, which means that it is not possible to satisfy the region with electricity at all times of the year. Meanwhile, it will not be possible to expand new power lines to Stockholm until we reach around the year 2030.  The purpose of this study is to investigate how the electrification of the passenger car fleet could affect the regional network in Stockholm when we reach the year 2030. The method that has been used is based on scenario methodology where both quantitative and qualitative data has been used to construct two different main scenarios. Firstly, a low scenario was constructed, where the passenger car fleet is electrified slowly, and secondly, a high scenario was constructed where the passenger car fleet is electrified rapidly. By examining how the electricity demand could develop until the year 2030 on an hourly basis for these two scenarios, an estimate is made of how many hours a year there could be a lack of capacity and how large the power shortage would be on these occasions if all the electricity demand is to be satisfied. Furthermore, it is also investigated whether flexible resources in the home-charging of electric vehicles can affect how many hours there could be a lack of capacity and what the correlation looks like between the number of electric vehicles and lack of capacity.  The result from the study shows that the electrification of the passenger car fleet can lead to a congested electricity grid if users charge their cars uncontrolled. This, as the charge is likely to coincide with times of the day when the electricity demand already is great. Furthermore, the number of hours with a lack of capacity increases in proportion to the number of passenger cars that are electrified. When flexible resources are integrated into the home-charging, the effort on the power grid is significantly reduced. Increasing the incentives for people to change their behaviours about charging can thus have positive effects on the electricity grid. However, even if flexible resources are integrated into the home charging system, the way it is assumed to be implemented here, the result shows that there may still be a lack of capacity. There is thus still a risk that the electrification of the passenger car fleet will be delayed.