This research addresses the subject of conventional arms transfers in the Post Cold War Era. ("Conventional arms" herein are defined as high cost, state-of-the-art weapons systems in aerospace, land vehicles, missiles and naval vessels.") The rapid and startling changes in the international political environment that took place in the late 1980's forced the U.S. and her Western Allies to reexamine their national defense budgets. The Bush Administration responded to the situation with new policy initiatives or "jolts" that aligned the annual U.S. Department of Defense's budget with Post Cold War realities. (A "jolt" is defined here as a sudden "shock" to a system that has the potential to alter radically one or more of its established structural components or behavioral patterns.) The word "jolt" is specifically used because while the policies reducing force strength and decreasing defense spending had been introduced on earlier occasions since the end of World War II, these particular jolts were driven by different circumstances than previous drawdowns. The Cold War that had dominated and shaped international affairs was over; the Post Cold War era promised to be a radical departure from the 50-year long status quo. Some phases of the policy jolts were directly related to U.S. Department of Defense operations, such as base closings and reductions in force, while others affected the U.S. defense industrial base through the weapons acquisition process. Domestic acquisition programs have important linkages to transferable weapons systems. Such linkages were so deeply embedded that despite severe reductions in weapons acquisition programs, most prime defense contractors did not conceptually redefine or reconstitute themselves although they went through a long period of mergers and acquisitions. This research explores how U.S. governmental stakeholders interpreted the utility of conventional arms transfers in managing the "aftershocks" of the policy jolts experienced by defense contractors. Their behaviors indicate that U.S. policy-making institutions, for the most part, tried to direct favorable outcomes for U.S. sales in the world market. Ultimately, the policy initiatives undertaken to assure favorable outcomes for defense corporations and their unforeseen consequences could lead to new policies or issue transformation. / Ph. D.

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Approved for public release, distribution is unlimited / There are in excess of 500,000 Manned Portable Air Defense Systems (MANPADS) in worldwide inventories including several thousand outside of government control. MANPADS are surface-to-air missile systems enabling the operator to launch missiles at aircraft from the ground. The most common MANPADS are the Russian SA-7 and U.S. Stinger, which feature infrared guidance systems. The concern that MANPADS can easily be acquired by non-state actors' intent on downing civilian and military aircraft has led international agencies, the U.S., and Russia to implement measures to reduce the risk of a MANPADS attack. International agencies such as the Wassenaar Arrangement work to stop illegal MANPADS proliferation. The U.S. MANPADS Defense Act and the U.S. Department of Homeland Security have implemented measures to counter the MANPADS threat. Russia has revised its export controls and forged a counter-proliferation agreement with most CIS countries. However, the multilateral initiatives to better control MANPADS stocks and transfers are far from comprehensive. A new approach to mitigating the MANPADS threat adopts elements from the 1997 Mine Ban Treaty and the Landmine Monitor. The conclusion of this thesis is that if MANPADS counter-proliferation efforts remain status quo an attack on a commercial aircraft in the western world is imminent.

L’objectif de cette thèse consiste à déterminer si le Traité sur le commerce des armes (TCA) est effectif en ce qui concerne les dispositions relatives au transfert (art. 6) et à l’exportation (art. 7) dans leurs applications aux ventes d’armes à l’Arabie saoudite. Cette effectivité est appréciée en mesurant l’applicabilité du TCA dans les ordres juridiques des principaux fournisseurs d’armes à l’Arabie saoudite, à savoir, la Belgique, le Canada, la France et le Royaume-Uni. L’applicabilité du TCA comprend deux volets : l’examen de la justiciabilité du TCA, à savoir, comment le juge national lui donne-t-il concrètement effet; et l’examen de son opposabilité, à savoir, comment déterminer si les individus peuvent se prévaloir de ses dispositions devant un juge national. Notre thèse vise à démontrer que le TCA en ce qui concerne les obligations relatives au transfert (art. 6) et à l’exportation (art. 7) n’est effectif que partiellement. Cette ineffectivité s’explique par le fait qu’il ne soit pas applicable dans les ordres juridiques des principaux fournisseurs d’armes à l’Arabie saoudite, notamment, ceux de Belgique et de France. Dans l’ensemble, la situation ne tend pas à s’améliorer vu l’inefficacité même du TCA et les multiples obstacles placés par les autorités administratives. Cela n’empêche cependant pas le déclenchement d’un processus de renforcement de cette effectivité portant principalement sur la suppression des obstacles artificiels placés sur la voie de son applicabilité. Ainsi, l’applicabilité directe du TCA, dans les ordres juridiques belge et français, ne doit pas être interprétée de façon à ce qu’elle l’empêche de déployer pleinement ses effets en droit interne. Le renforcement peut également se faire, dans les ordres juridiques britannique et canadien, par une incorporation intégrale des dispositions de ce traité en droit interne et par une attitude des juges qui soit favorable à l’utilisation de celui. / The objective of this thesis is to determine whether the Arms Trade Treaty (ATT) is effective with respect to the transfer (Art. 6) and export (Art. 7) provisions as they apply to arms sales to Saudi Arabia. This effectiveness is assessed by measuring the applicability of the ATT in the legal orders of the main arms suppliers to Saudi Arabia, namely Belgium, Canada, France and the United Kingdom. The applicability of the ATT is twofold: the examination of its justiciability, namely, how does the national judge give practical effect to it; and the examination of its enforceability, namely, how to determine whether individuals can rely on its provisions before a national judge. Our thesis aims to demonstrate that the ATT with regard to the obligations on transfer (Art. 6) and export (Art. 7) is only partially effective. This ineffectiveness is explained by the fact that it is not applicable in the legal orders of the main arms suppliers to Saudi Arabia, namely those of Belgium and France. Overall, the situation does not tend to improve given the very ineffectiveness of the ATT and the multiple obstacles placed by the administrative authorities. This does not, however, prevent the initiation of a process of reinforcing its effectiveness, mainly by removing the artificial obstacles placed in the way of its applicability. Thus, the direct applicability of the ATT in the Belgian and French legal orders must not be interpreted in such a way as to prevent it from having full effect in domestic law. In the British and Canadian legal orders, reinforcement can also be achieved by a full incorporation of the provisions of this treaty into domestic law and by an attitude of the judges that is favorable to the use of the treaty.