Maize production in Africa is constrained by abiotic and biotic stresses. Breeders need to have information on the nature of combining ability of parents, their traits and performance in hybrid combination. This requires careful determination of genetic variability of parents, and studying associations between grain yield and adaptive traits to breed superior cultivars which are better able to withstand such stresses. Therefore, this study was aimed at selecting parental testers with best combining ability in hybrid combination with recombinant inbred lines (RILs); and studying the correlation between grain yield and its components in eastern and western South Africa. It was also aimed at determining genetic variation and associations among adaptive traits in hybrids involving RILs. The final objectives of the study were to determine cultivar superiority of testcrosses involving RILs, and to select the best cultivars within and across four different environments. The 42 RILs were crossed to 9 Zimbabwean tropical testers resulting in 1009 hybrids with sufficient seed for planting in trials. From these a sample of 87 hybrids with adequate seed were selected and planted at four sites for combining ability analysis. The hybrids were evaluated at four sites in two regions; western region (Potchefstroom research station) and eastern region (Cedara, Ukulinga and Dundee research stations), during 2011/12 season. The experiments were laid out as augmented alpha lattice design. Trials were managed in accordance with production culture for each region. All quantitative data was subjected to GenStat and SAS statistical softwares. The results from combining ability study indicated that the line general combining ability (GCA) effects played a non-significant role (p > 0.05) in determining grain yield, grain moisture and anthesis date, while they were significant (p ≤ 0.05) for the other traits such as ear prolificacy. The tester main effects were significant for all the traits except ear prolificacy and plant height. Results also revealed that all the traits were controlled by both additive and non-additive genes, where additive gene action had the most contribution to the traits. The non-additive gene action played a minor role suggesting the total GCA effects attributed to both lines and testers predominantly higher over the specific combining ability (SCA) for all traits. In general the additive effects were preponderant over the non-additive gene effects. One cross (L114 x T12) had a significant and positive SCA effect for grain yield. The correlation between grain yield and secondary traits (number of ears per plant, grain moisture content, ear height, plant height, ear position and anthesis date) suggested that indirect selection can be employed to enhance grain yield by breeding for these particular adaptive traits. Path analysis showed that plant height had the highest direct and indirect effect on grain yield indicating its importance among other secondary traits for grain yield enhancement. Phenotypic coefficient of variation (PCV) was higher than genotypic coefficient of variation (GCV) for all the studied traits across all the four environments. All the traits displayed high heritability at Potchefstroom except anthesis date which was highly heritable at Ukulinga. Cedara was the second best site for heritability of all the traits except for the number of ears per plant. The genetic advance for grain yield was the highest at Cedara followed by Potchefstroom, Dundee and Ukulinga. The hybrids exhibited different patterns of variation and distribution for all the traits. This indicated that selection strategies to exploit GCA should be emphasised. Association studies among grain yield and secondary traits such as ear length, number of ears per plant, plant height, anthesis date, silking date and ear leaf area revealed that there were significant phenotypic correlations between grain yield and secondary traits, and among the secondary traits. Ear length had the highest direct effect on grain yield at Ukulinga; number of ears per plant had the highest direct effect on grain yield at Cedara and Potchefstroom; whereas plant height had the highest direct effect on grain yield at Dundee. Grain yield was least affected by indirect factors at all the sites except Ukulinga, where anthesis date had the highest indirect effect on grain yield through silking date followed by plant height through leaf area. The study reveals that there is significant variation among the hybrids for mean performance, indicating that there is opportunity for selection. Overall the findings suggest that direct selection would be appropriate to enhance grain yield. Path analysis revealed that plant height had the highest direct and indirect effects on grain yield, indicating that plant height can be further exploited as the main trait in future breeding programmes for grain yield increment. Hybrid 10MAK10-1/N3 was the best hybrid at Ukulinga in terms of grain yield, relative yield and economic traits. Whereas hybrid T17/L83 was the best hybrid at Cedara in terms of grain yield and relative yield; however, T11/L102 was selected as the most elite hybrid with respect to grain yield, relative yield and economic traits. Hybrid T3/L48 was identified as thebest hybrid at Dundee with respect to grain yield, relative yield and prolificacy. At Potchefstroom the standard check PAN6611 was identified as the best hybrid in terms of grain yield and relative yield followed by developmental hybrid T1/L28; however, developmental hybrid T1/L28 was the best in terms of earliness, prolificacy and ear aspect. Stability coefficients and cultivar superiority index across the sites revealed that four developmental hybrids were identified as best hybrids and they performed better than the standard check. These hybrids will be recommended for further testing in advanced trials. With respect to cultivar superiority, the desired hybrids are required to combine high grain yield with economic and adaptive traits such as high ear prolificacy, low grain moisture, and low ear aspect score (desired) for them to adapt to production environments in South Africa. There was significant variation among the top 25 yielding hybrids. At least 5 hybrids combined high grain yield with the desired complimentary adaptive traits such as quick moisture dry down, prolificacy and ear aspect. The results showed that there is variation in the performance of high yielding genotypes within all the sites, and that agronomically superior cultivars can be identified. The study shows that there is significant variation among the RILs since they interacted differently with the 9 tropical testers. Even among the top 25 selections of RILs in each environment there was still variation for combinations of the desired traits. Significant associations among grain yield and other economic and adaptive traits were observed with implications for breeding strategy. Above all the significant variation gives large score for future breeding of new unique lines. / Thesis (M.Sc.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, 2012.

MSCAGR / Department of Soil Science

This study was conducted in the Nkangala district, in the province of Mpumalanga in South Africa. This province remains the largest forestry production region in South Africa. The majority of people living in Mpumalanga are farmers and they have contributed immensely to promote food security. The objective of the study was to determine the level of climate change awareness among small scale maize producers in Mpumalanga province. Random sampling techniques was used to select two hundred and fifty one (251) farmers to be interviewed. A pre-tested questionnaire was administered to maize farmers, focusing on matters relating to climate change awareness in maize production. Data was captured and analysed using software package for social science (SPSS version 20 of 2012). Descriptive statistics were applied to analyse and describe the data. Logistic regression analysis followed to demonstrate the significance of the independent variables on climate change awareness. The results of the analysis indicated that the information received and the size of the farm had an impact on climate change awareness in the area of study. It was therefore recommended that the majority of farmers in Mpumalanga needed to be made aware of climate change in order to assist them to build the adaptive capacity, increase resilience and reduce vulnerability. Information on climate change awareness should be disseminated well to ensure that it will attract the attention of the farmers / Agriculture and  Animal Health / M.Sc. (Agriculture)

This study was conducted in the Nkangala district, in the province of Mpumalanga in South Africa. This province remains the largest forestry production region in South Africa. The majority of people living in Mpumalanga are farmers and they have contributed immensely to promote food security. The objective of the study was to determine the level of climate change awareness among small scale maize producers in Mpumalanga province. Random sampling techniques was used to select two hundred and fifty one (251) farmers to be interviewed. A pre-tested questionnaire was administered to maize farmers, focusing on matters relating to climate change awareness in maize production. Data was captured and analysed using software package for social science (SPSS version 20 of 2012). Descriptive statistics were applied to analyse and describe the data. Logistic regression analysis followed to demonstrate the significance of the independent variables on climate change awareness. The results of the analysis indicated that the information received and the size of the farm had an impact on climate change awareness in the area of study. It was therefore recommended that the majority of farmers in Mpumalanga needed to be made aware of climate change in order to assist them to build the adaptive capacity, increase resilience and reduce vulnerability. Information on climate change awareness should be disseminated well to ensure that it will attract the attention of the farmers / Agriculture and  Animal Health / M. Sc. (Agriculture)

Recurring drought conditions have always been an endemic feature of climate in South Africa, limiting maize development and production. However, recent projections of the future climate by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change suggest that due to an increase of atmospheric greenhouse gases, the frequency and severity of droughts will increase in drought-prone areas, mostly in subtropical climates. This has raised major concern for the agricultural sector, particularly the vulnerable small-scale farmers who merely rely on rain for crop production. Farmers in the Luvuvhu River catchment are not an exception, as this area is considered economically poor, whereby a significant number of people are dependent on rain-fed farming for subsistence. This study was therefore conducted in order to improve agricultural productivity in the area and thus help in the development of measures to secure livelihoods of those vulnerable small-scale farmers. Two drought indices viz. Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI) were used to quantify drought. A 120-day maturing maize crop was considered and three consecutive planting dates were staggered based on the average start of the rainy season. Frequencies and probabilities during each growing stage of maize were calculated based on the results of the two indices. Temporal variations of drought severity from 1975 to 2015 were evaluated and trends were analyzed using the non-parametric Spearman’s Rank Correlation test at α (0.05) significance level. For assessing climate change impact on droughts, SPEI and WRSI were computed using an output from downscaled projections of CSIRO Mark3.5 under the SRES A2 emission scenario for the period 1980/81 – 2099/100. The frequency of drought was calculated and the difference of SPEI and WRSI means between future climate periods and the base period were assessed using the independent t-test at α (0.10) significance level in STATISTICA software. The study revealed that planting a 120-day maturing maize crop in December would pose a high risk of frequent severe-extreme droughts during the flowering to the grain-filling stage at Levubu, Lwamondo, Thohoyandou, and Tshiombo; while planting in October could place crops at a lower risk of reduced yield and even total crop failure. In contrast, stations located in the low-lying plains of the catchment (Punda Maria, Sigonde, and Pafuri) were exposed to frequent moderate droughts following planting in October, with favorable conditions noted following the December planting date. Further analysis on the performance of the crop under various drought conditions revealed that WRSI values corresponding to more intense drought conditions were detected during the December planting date for all stations. Moreover, at Punda Maria, Sigonde and Pafuri, it was observed that extreme drought (WRSI <50) occurred once in five seasons, regardless of the planting date. Temporal analysis on historical droughts in the area indicated that there had been eight agricultural seasons subjected to extreme widespread droughts resulting in total crop failure i.e. 1983/84, 1988/89, 1991/92, 1993/94, 2001/02, 2002/03, 2004/05 and 2014/15. Results of Spearman’s rank correlation test revealed weak increasing drought trends at Thohoyandou (ρ = of 0.5 for WRSI) and at Levubu and Lwamondo (ρ = of 0.4 for SPEI), with no significant trends at the other stations. The study further revealed that climate change would enhance the severity of drought across the catchment. This was statistically significant (at 10% significance level) for the near-future and intermediate-future climates, relative to the base period. Drought remains a threat to rain-fed maize production in the Luvuvhu River catchment area of South Africa. In order to mitigate the possible effects of droughts under climate change, optimal planting dates were recommended for each region. The use of seasonal forecasts during drought seasons would also be useful for local rain-fed maize growers especially in regions where moisture is available for a short period during the growing season. It was further recommended that the Government ensure proper support such as effective early warning systems and inputs to the farmers. Moreover, essential communication between scientists, decision makers, and the farmers can help in planning and decision making ahead of and during the occurrence of droughts. / Agriculture, Animal Health and Human Ecology / M. Sc. (Agriculture)