Purpose of Review: This article reviews the evidence on optimal medical therapy (OMT) versus coronary revascularization in patients with stable ischemic heart disease (SIHD) and advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD). Recent Findings: A post hoc analysis of the COURAGE trial in patients with SIHD and CKD showed no difference in freedom from angina, death, and nonfatal myocardial infarction (MI) between OMT and percutaneous intervention plus OMT compared with patients without CKD. The ISCHEMIA-CKD trial of 777 patients with advanced CKD revealed no difference in cumulative incidence of death or nonfatal MI at 3 years between OMT and revascularization but the composite of death or new dialysis was higher in the invasive arm. Additionally, there were no significant or sustained benefits in related to angina-related health status in invasive versus conservative strategy. Summary: An initial revascularization strategy does not reduce mortality or MI or relieve angina symptoms in patients with SIHD and advanced CKD.

No description available.

<p>The primary aim was to register the incidence of surgical wound infections (SWI) in sternotomy and leg incisions and potential risk factors for SWI following coronary artery by-pass graft (CAGB) procedures. Patients’ perspectives of SWI and the subsequent treatment were also considered. </p><p>Risk factors were registered for 374 patients. Patients were contacted by telephone 30 and 60 days after surgery and interviewed according to a questionnaire about symptoms and signs of wound infections. SWI was defined according to The Centers for Disease Control. Patients with mediastinitis were also interviewed within four months about how they experienced care, how they coped and how they thought the mediastinitis would influence their future life. </p><p>SWIs were diagnosed in 30 % of the patients. Seventy-three percent of the SWIs of the leg were diagnosed within 30 days of surgery and 27% were diagnosed within 31 to 60 days. Female gender and use of a monofilament suture for skin closure were the most important risk factors for SWI of the leg. Low preoperative haemoglobin concentration was the most important risk factor for sternal SWI. Patients with mediastinitis had higher BMI and had more often received erythrocyte transfusions on postoperative day 2 or later than those without infections. Patients without a diagnosis of diabetes who had increased blood glucose concentrations during the intermediate postoperative period had an increased risk of mediastinitis. It was not possible to separate the effect of diabetes as a risk factor for SWI from that of hyperglycaemia as such. Patients’ experiences were influenced by the staffs’ medical knowledge, how care was given and how well information was provided. Perceived danger and stress influenced how they coped with the situation. The patients believed that the mediastinitis would not affect the final outcome of the CABG procedure, even though their confidence in this was influenced by uncertainties about the rehabilitation process.</p>

The primary aim was to register the incidence of surgical wound infections (SWI) in sternotomy and leg incisions and potential risk factors for SWI following coronary artery by-pass graft (CAGB) procedures. Patients’ perspectives of SWI and the subsequent treatment were also considered. Risk factors were registered for 374 patients. Patients were contacted by telephone 30 and 60 days after surgery and interviewed according to a questionnaire about symptoms and signs of wound infections. SWI was defined according to The Centers for Disease Control. Patients with mediastinitis were also interviewed within four months about how they experienced care, how they coped and how they thought the mediastinitis would influence their future life. SWIs were diagnosed in 30 % of the patients. Seventy-three percent of the SWIs of the leg were diagnosed within 30 days of surgery and 27% were diagnosed within 31 to 60 days. Female gender and use of a monofilament suture for skin closure were the most important risk factors for SWI of the leg. Low preoperative haemoglobin concentration was the most important risk factor for sternal SWI. Patients with mediastinitis had higher BMI and had more often received erythrocyte transfusions on postoperative day 2 or later than those without infections. Patients without a diagnosis of diabetes who had increased blood glucose concentrations during the intermediate postoperative period had an increased risk of mediastinitis. It was not possible to separate the effect of diabetes as a risk factor for SWI from that of hyperglycaemia as such. Patients’ experiences were influenced by the staffs’ medical knowledge, how care was given and how well information was provided. Perceived danger and stress influenced how they coped with the situation. The patients believed that the mediastinitis would not affect the final outcome of the CABG procedure, even though their confidence in this was influenced by uncertainties about the rehabilitation process.

Roughly thirty percent of coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) patients develop atrial fibrillation (AF) in the five days following surgery, increasing the risk of stroke, prolonging hospital stay three to four days, and increasing the overall cost of the procedure. Current pharmacologic and nonpharmacologic means of AF prevention are suboptimal, and their side effects, expense, and inconvenience limit their widespread application. An accurate method for identifying patients at high risk for postoperative AF would allow these methods to be focused on the patients on which its utility would be highest. The main objective of this research was to develop a Bayesian network (BN) which could model/predict/assign risk of the occurrence of atrial fibrillation in CABG patients using retrospective data. A secondary objective was to develop an integrated framework for more advanced methods of feature selection and fusion for medical classification/prediction. We determined that the naïve Bayesian network classifier used with features selected by a genetic algorithm is a better classifier to use, given our cohort. The naïve BN allows for reasonable prediction despite being presented with patients with missing data points as might occur in the hospital. This classifier achieves a sensitivity of 0.63 and a specificity of 0.73 with an AUC of 0.74. Furthermore, this system is based on probabilities that are well understood and easily incorporated into a clinical environment. These probabilities can be altered based on the cardiologists prior knowledge through Bayesian statistics, allowing for online sensitivity analysis by doctors, to perceive the best treatment options. Contributions of this research include: - An accurate, physician-friendly, postoperative AF risk stratification system that performs even under missing data conditions, while outperforming the state of the art system, - A thorough analysis of previously examined and novel pre- and postoperative clinical and ECG features for postoperative AF risk stratification, - A new methodology for genetic algorithm-built traditional Bayesian network classifiers allowing dynamic structure through novel chromosome, operator, and fitness definitions, and - An integrated methodology for inclusion of doctor s expert knowledge into a probabilistic diagnosis support system.

Neuropsychological impairment following cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) remains a serious consequence of otherwise successful surgery. The incidence of neuropsychological decline is poorly understood due to varied measurement intervals, and perhaps more importantly the use of unreliable detection and classification methods. The reported incidence varies considerably, ranging anywhere from 30% to 90% of subjects. While the nature of this impairment has not been fully elucidated, recent evidence suggests that microembolism during surgery may be the principal causative agent of postoperative cerebral dysfunction. The work described in this thesis investigates one possible source of microembolism leading to postoperative decline, namely thromboembolism arising from excessive activation of the haemostatic mechanism. Crucial to the accurate detection of significant decline in individual patients, this work also focuses on the development and use of meaningful criteria to be used when describing change in neuropsychological performance measures. The strong haemostatic activation during CPB is controlled by heparin anticoagulation. The clinical performance of the Hepcon heparin-monitoring instrument was compared to the activated clotting time (ACT), which is used in most cardiac centres. An analysis of samples from 42 elective coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) patients shows that the ACT does not detect the significant decline in heparin concentration seen upon connection to CPB, in comparison to the Hepcon. The Hepcon appears to be in satisfactory agreement with laboratory anti-Xa analysis of heparin concentration, with the mean difference for the Hepcon at -0.46 U/ml, and the limits of agreement +/- 1.12 U/ml. Further analysis shows that that for 95% of cases, the Hepcon will give values that are between 0.53 and 1.27 times the value for anti-Xa. The loss of relationship between ACT and heparin concentration was further investigated by converting ACT values to heparin concentration. The results provide data on the degree of prolongation in ACT times brought about by factors associated with CPB. A methodology is presented by which users can adjust for the loss of relationship between ACT and heparin. This work also demonstrates that under normal usage of the ACT, the user may obtain values up to 3 times appropriate for the plasma heparin concentration. The computer-administered neuropsychological testing tool (the MicroCog) was validated using 40 age-matched control subjects. Using a two-week interval, the summary score correlation coefficients ranged from .49 to .84, with all scores demonstrating significant practice effects. Also presented are retest normative data that may be used to determine significant change in a homogeneous sample using both reliable change and regression models of analysis. The performance of four different models of change analysis was then analysed using data from the clinical group. The regression technique of analysis was shown to be the most useful prediction model as it provides correction for both practice effects and regression toward the mean in each individual. A novel statistical rationale is presented for the choice of criteria in the identification of patients that may be defined as overall impaired when using a battery of test scores. When using one-tailed prediction models for decline, the binomial distribution of scores was shown to be a useful descriptive statistic providing an estimate of change due to chance. When applied to a suitable selection of scores that minimise shared variance, a value +/- 20% of test scores used was demonstrated to be a rational cut-off for an individual to be classified as impaired. Using this methodology, 32.7% of patients were identified as significantly deteriorated in neuropsychological test function immediately prior to discharge from hospital. Patient age was shown to be a significant predictor of neuropsychological decline following CPB. No significant relationship was identified between thrombin generation and neuropsychological change scores, however problems with patient recruitment and retention limited the statistical power of this study. An intriguing relationship with heparin concentration was noted that might warrant further investigation. This work highlights the complex nature of post-bypass neuropsychological dysfunction and the complexities in assessing decline. The regression-based model was shown to be highly useful in the analysis of data from a suitably validated neuropsychological testing tool. The argument that no suitable criterion exists for the identification of patients as overall impaired has been challenged with the development of a rational cut-off based on the likely distribution of change scores across a series. The work presented here confirms the need for standardised testing methods based on sound statistical criteria. This work also highlights the problems associated with current methods for monitoring anticoagulation therapy during bypass surgery. Methodology is presented that allows adjustment of ACT results to account for CPB-induced prolongation of clotting times. Current techniques for heparin monitoring overestimate heparin levels on bypass by up to threefold, which may predispose to subclinical coagulation and increased delivery of protamine.

Mild cognitive deficits that negatively impact self-management education-related outcomes may be present in a proportion of cardiac rehabilitation patients and the degree of impairment may vary by the type of coronary revascularization procedure. The purpose of this study was to compare cognitive function, as measured by the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA), between coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG) and percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) patients, and to determine independent variables of MoCA score. In a cross-sectional study, 78 cardiac rehabilitation patients (CABG n = 38, PCI n = 40) completed the MoCA. Demographics were collected and disease burden was calculated using the age-adjusted Charlson Comorbidity Index (ACCI). Mild cognitive deficits (MoCA ≤26) were present in 55.3% CABG and 30.0% PCI patients. An independent Student’s t test showed that MoCA scores were significantly lower among CABG patients (mean = 24.5, SD = 3.3) compared to PCI patients (M = 26.7, SD = 2.7), t (76) = 3.15, p < 0.01. Descriptive analyses of cognitive domain scores indicated that deficits in short-term memory and language were present among CABG patients. Using a backward regression, coronary revascularization procedure (CABG vs. PCI) (p = 0.006) and disease burden (ACCI) (p = 0.015) remained significant, while heart failure diagnosis became non-significant and was removed from the model (F (2, 75) = 8.382, p < 0.001). The final model explained 16.1% of the total variance in MoCA score (adjusted R2 = 0.161). Results indicate that cognitive deficits were present in cardiac rehabilitation participants and associated with the type of coronary revascularization procedure, suggesting the need for formal cognitive screening and adaptation of education interventions in cardiac rehabilitation. A future prospective cohort study is required to establish temporality, and to measure education-related outcomes, such as health-related quality of life (HRQOL) and self-management. / Thesis / Master of Science (MSc) / Cardiac rehabilitation (CR) is a multifaceted program consisting of exercise and education that is essential to the care of post-coronary revascularization patients. While exercise has shown to improve health outcomes, education has demonstrated inconsistent effects. Since education has imposed cognitive demands, this discrepancy in outcomes may, in part, be due to cognitive deficits present in a proportion of program attendees: the degree of impairment may vary by type of coronary revascularization procedure prior to CR. This study compared cognitive function between two groups of coronary revascularization patients, post-coronary bypass surgery and post-coronary angioplasty, and determined independent variables for cognitive function. Results showed that coronary bypass surgery patients had significantly lower cognitive function than coronary angioplasty patients at program intake. Coronary bypass surgery and accumulated disease burden were weakly associated with decreased cognitive function. Cognitive screening and adapted education for patients with cognitive deficits should be considered to improve CR outcomes.

A quantitative research design for a descriptive and contextual study to determine the critical care nurses knowledge and data preferences regarding the central venous and pulmonary artery catheters management and decision making after coronary arte.y bypass graft operations and the utmzation period of the pulmonary artery catheter after coronary artery bypass graft operations. The data was collected through a questionnaire completed by critical care nurses and retrospective analysis of patient records through a structured checklist. Data analysis indicated the following: critical care nurses have a knowledge deficit in the management of the central venous and pulmonary artery catheters and felt more competent and confident in the central venous measurements. The utilization period of the pulmonary artery catheter was 48% compared to the 100% of the central venous catheter. / Advanced Nursing Science / M.A. (Advanced Nursing Science)

La fibrillation auriculaire (FA) est une arythmie touchant les oreillettes. En FA, la contraction auriculaire est rapide et irrégulière. Le remplissage des ventricules devient incomplet, ce qui réduit le débit cardiaque. La FA peut entraîner des palpitations, des évanouissements, des douleurs thoraciques ou l’insuffisance cardiaque. Elle augmente aussi le risque d'accident vasculaire. Le pontage coronarien est une intervention chirurgicale réalisée pour restaurer le flux sanguin dans les cas de maladie coronarienne sévère. 10% à 65% des patients qui n'ont jamais subi de FA, en sont victime le plus souvent lors du deuxième ou troisième jour postopératoire. La FA est particulièrement fréquente après une chirurgie de la valve mitrale, survenant alors dans environ 64% des patients. L'apparition de la FA postopératoire est associée à une augmentation de la morbidité, de la durée et des coûts d'hospitalisation. Les mécanismes responsables de la FA postopératoire ne sont pas bien compris. L'identification des patients à haut risque de FA après un pontage coronarien serait utile pour sa prévention. Le présent projet est basé sur l'analyse d’électrogrammes cardiaques enregistrées chez les patients après pontage un aorte-coronaire. Le premier objectif de la recherche est d'étudier si les enregistrements affichent des changements typiques avant l'apparition de la FA. Le deuxième objectif est d'identifier des facteurs prédictifs permettant d’identifier les patients qui vont développer une FA. Les enregistrements ont été réalisés par l'équipe du Dr Pierre Pagé sur 137 patients traités par pontage coronarien. Trois électrodes unipolaires ont été suturées sur l'épicarde des oreillettes pour enregistrer en continu pendant les 4 premiers jours postopératoires. La première tâche était de développer un algorithme pour détecter et distinguer les activations auriculaires et ventriculaires sur chaque canal, et pour combiner les activations des trois canaux appartenant à un même événement cardiaque. L'algorithme a été développé et optimisé sur un premier ensemble de marqueurs, et sa performance évaluée sur un second ensemble. Un logiciel de validation a été développé pour préparer ces deux ensembles et pour corriger les détections sur tous les enregistrements qui ont été utilisés plus tard dans les analyses. Il a été complété par des outils pour former, étiqueter et valider les battements sinusaux normaux, les activations auriculaires et ventriculaires prématurées (PAA, PVA), ainsi que les épisodes d'arythmie. Les données cliniques préopératoires ont ensuite été analysées pour établir le risque préopératoire de FA. L’âge, le niveau de créatinine sérique et un diagnostic d'infarctus du myocarde se sont révélés être les plus importants facteurs de prédiction. Bien que le niveau du risque préopératoire puisse dans une certaine mesure prédire qui développera la FA, il n'était pas corrélé avec le temps de l'apparition de la FA postopératoire. Pour l'ensemble des patients ayant eu au moins un épisode de FA d’une durée de 10 minutes ou plus, les deux heures précédant la première FA prolongée ont été analysées. Cette première FA prolongée était toujours déclenchée par un PAA dont l’origine était le plus souvent sur l'oreillette gauche. Cependant, au cours des deux heures pré-FA, la distribution des PAA et de la fraction de ceux-ci provenant de l'oreillette gauche était large et inhomogène parmi les patients. Le nombre de PAA, la durée des arythmies transitoires, le rythme cardiaque sinusal, la portion basse fréquence de la variabilité du rythme cardiaque (LF portion) montraient des changements significatifs dans la dernière heure avant le début de la FA. La dernière étape consistait à comparer les patients avec et sans FA prolongée pour trouver des facteurs permettant de discriminer les deux groupes. Cinq types de modèles de régression logistique ont été comparés. Ils avaient une sensibilité, une spécificité et une courbe opérateur-receveur similaires, et tous avaient un niveau de prédiction des patients sans FA très faible. Une méthode de moyenne glissante a été proposée pour améliorer la discrimination, surtout pour les patients sans FA. Deux modèles ont été retenus, sélectionnés sur les critères de robustesse, de précision, et d’applicabilité. Autour 70% patients sans FA et 75% de patients avec FA ont été correctement identifiés dans la dernière heure avant la FA. Le taux de PAA, la fraction des PAA initiés dans l'oreillette gauche, le pNN50, le temps de conduction auriculo-ventriculaire, et la corrélation entre ce dernier et le rythme cardiaque étaient les variables de prédiction communes à ces deux modèles. / Atrial fibrillation (AF) is an abnormal heart rhythm (cardiac arrhythmia). In AF, the atrial contraction is rapid and irregular, and the filling of the ventricles becomes incomplete, leading to reduce cardiac output. Atrial fibrillation may result in symptoms of palpitations, fainting, chest pain, or even heart failure. AF is an also an important risk factor for stroke. Coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG) is a surgical procedure to restore the perfusion of the cardiac tissue in case of severe coronary heart disease. 10% to 65% of patients who never had a history of AF develop AF on the second or third post CABG surgery day. The occurrence of postoperative AF is associated with worse morbidity and longer and more expensive intensive-care hospitalization. The fundamental mechanism responsible of AF, especially for post-surgery patients, is not well understood. Identification of patients at high risk of AF after CABG would be helpful in prevention of postoperative AF. The present project is based on the analysis of cardiac electrograms recorded in patients after CABG surgery. The first aim of the research is to investigate whether the recordings display typical changes prior to the onset of AF. A second aim is to identify predictors that can discriminate the patients that will develop AF. Recordings were made by the team of Dr. Pierre Pagé on 137 patients treated with CABG surgery. Three unipolar electrodes were sutured on the epicardium of the atria to record continuously during the first 4 post-surgery days. As a first stage of the research, an automatic and unsupervised algorithm was developed to detect and distinguish atrial and ventricular activations on each channel, and join together the activation of the different channels belonging to the same cardiac event. The algorithm was developed and optimized on a training set, and its performance assessed on a test set. Validation software was developed to prepare these two sets and to correct the detections over all recordings that were later used in the analyses. It was complemented with tools to detect, label and validate normal sinus beats, atrial and ventricular premature activations (PAA, PVC) as well as episodes of arrhythmia. Pre-CABG clinical data were then analyzed to establish the preoperative risk of AF. Age, serum creatinine and prior myocardial infarct were found to be the most important predictors. While the preoperative risk score could to a certain extent predict who will develop AF, it was not correlated with the post-operative time of AF onset. Then the set of AF patients was analyzed, considering the last two hours before the onset of the first AF lasting for more than 10 minutes. This prolonged AF was found to be usually triggered by a premature atrial PAA most often originating from the left atrium. However, along the two pre-AF hours, the distribution of PAA and of the fraction of these coming from the left atrium was wide and inhomogeneous among the patients. PAA rate, duration of transient atrial arrhythmia, sinus heart rate, and low frequency portion of heart rate variability (LF portion) showed significant changes in last hour before the onset of AF. Comparing all other PAA, the triggering PAA were characterized by their prematurity, the small value of the maximum derivative of the electrogram nearest to the site of origin, as well as the presence of transient arrhythmia and increase LF portion of the sinus heart rate variation prior to the onset of the arrhythmia. The final step was to compare AF and Non-AF patients to find predictors to discriminate the two groups. Five types of logistic regression models were compared, achieving similar sensitivity, specificity, and ROC curve area, but very low prediction accuracy for Non-AF patients. A weighted moving average method was proposed to design to improve the accuracy for Non-AF patient. Two models were favoured, selected on the criteria of robustness, accuracy, and practicability. Around 70% Non-AF patients were correctly classified, and around 75% of AF patients in the last hour before AF. The PAA rate, the fraction of PAA initiated in the left atrium, pNN50, the atrio-ventricular conduction time, and the correlation between the latter and the heart rhythm were common predictors of these two models.

Die Beurteilung der Wirkung von Cariporide auf dieEreignis-Wahrscheinlichkeit eines Herzinfarktes oder des Todes imRahmen einer Bypass-Operation ist Gegenstand der Arbeit. DasNHE-Austauschersystem in der Herzmuskelzelle induziert den unterIschämie durch den intrazellulären Protonenüberschusshervorgerufenen Na(+)- und Ca(2+)-Einstrom. Cariporide ist einNHE-Inhibitor, der den unter Ischämie durch die Ca(2+)-Überladunginduzierten Herzmuskelzelltod verzögern soll. In einer kombinierten Phase-II/III-Studie (GUARDIAN, n=11590) war derEinfluss verschiedener intravenöser Dosen von Cariporide auf dieHäufigkeit von Herzinfarkt oder Tod in ACS/NQMI, PTCA undCABG-Patientenkollektiven untersucht worden. Nur die höchstdosierteCABG-Gruppe zeigte eine signifikante Reduktion der Ereignisrate um24,7% (p=0,027) gegenüber Placebo. Diese schwacheDosis-Wirkungs-Beziehung konnte durch eine pharmakokinetische undpharmakodynamische Populationsanalyse in eineKonzentrations-Wirkungs-Beziehung überführt werden. Zur Entwicklungdes Populationsmodells waren verschiedene Submodelle notwendig: 1. Modell für den Zeitverlauf der Ereignisrate: Durch Kombination zweier Weibull-Verteilungen ist es möglich, die beobachteten Daten als Überlebenszeitfunktion nach CABG zu beschreiben. Ein akutes, unmittelbar auf die CABG-Operation zurückzuführendes Risiko wird hier von einem chronischen Risiko unterschieden. 2. Pharmakokinetisches Modell: Ein multiexponentielles populationspharmakokinetisches Modell ist notwendig zur Beschreibung der PK nach iv-Applikation von Cariporide bei Probanden und Patienten. 3. Pharmakodynamisches Modell: Über ein empirisches logistisches Modell wird die Reduktion des akuten Risikos mit der mittleren Cariporide Plasmakonzentration unter der Bypass-Operation verknüpft. In einer Substudie der GUARDIAN-Hauptstudie konnte daspopulationspharmakokinetische Modell aus der früherenPhase-I-Entwicklung mit Probanden für die Patienten validiert werden.Die mit Hilfe der individüllen Dosierung, der demographischen Datenund dem Populationsmodell für die Periode mit dem höchsten Risikowährend der CABG-Operation vorhergesagten mittlerenPlasmakonzentrationen flossen in die Analyse derKonzentrations-Zeit-Abhängigkeit der Ereignis-Wahrscheinlichkeit ein. Eine untere Schwellenkonzentration (0,5mg/l), unterhalb der mitkeinem Effekt zu rechnen ist, wurde bestimmt. Die Daten erlaubten dieSchätzung des maximalen Effekts nur unzureichend. Die maximaleRisikoreduktion von 60% wurde mit einem Konfidenzintervall von29% bis 100% geschätzt. Unter Einsatz einer linearen Näherungdes Hill-Modells wurde eine obere Schwellenkonzentration bei 0,9mg/lbestimmt. Nur 37% aller Patienten der 80mg-Dosisgruppe erreichtenmittlere Konzentrationen oberhalb der unteren Schwellenkonzentration,in der 120mg-Dosisgruppe waren es immerhin schon 75% allerPatienten. Die Infusion von 120mg Cariporide über eine Stunde gefolgt voneiner Erhaltungsdosis von 20mg/h für weitere 47 Stunden sollte bei95% der Patienten während der CABG-Operation zu mittlerenKonzentrationen über der minimal effektiven Konzentration von0,5mg/l führen. Eine auf diese Weise mittels Simulationenoptimierte Dosierungsregel sollte während der CABG-Operation zu einemerhöhten Schutz der Patienten gegen die Folgen ischämischerEreignisse führen. Eine weitere Erhöhung der Erhaltungsdosis aufbis zu 40mg/h mit einer entsprechenden Anpassung der Initialdosissollte 95% der Patienten sogar über die bisher nur unsicher zubestimmende obere Grenzkonzentration von 0,9mg/l bringen. Solltenkeine dosislimitierenden Nebenwirkungen auftreten, kann dieseErhöhung sowohl der Initialdosis als auch der Erhaltungsdosis zueiner weiteren Verbesserung während der Risikoperiode führen undeinen weiteren potentiellen klinischen Vorteil für Cariporideerbringen. / Subject of this analysis is the assessment of the effect of cariporideon the event probability of a myocardial infarction (MI) or death inthe scope of a coronary artery bypass graft. Thesodium-hydrogen-exchange system (NHE) in the myocardial cell inducesthe sodium and calcium influx caused by an ischaemia induced hydrogenoverload. Cariporide is a NHE-inhibitor which is seen to be delayingthe necrosis of myocardial cells caused by the ischaemia inducedcalcium influx. The influence of different intravenous doses of cariporide on thefrequency of MI and death in ACS/NQMI, PTCA, and CABG patients hadbeen investigated in a combined phase II/III trial (GUARDIAN,n=11590). Only the highest dosed CABG-subgroup showed a significantreduction of the event-rate compared to placebo of 24.7% (p=0.027).This weak dose-effect-relationship could be translated into aconcentration-effect relationship by using a populationpharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) analysis. To develop thispopulation model a series of sub-models were established: 1) Model for the time-to-event progression: using a combination of two Weibull-distributions, it was possible to describe the observed data following the CABG procedure by means of a survival-function. An acute risk, likely to be related to the CABG-procedure could be discriminated from a chronic risk. 2) Pharmacokinetic model: a multi-exponential population PK model was necessary to describe the PK after iv-application of cariporide in volunteers as well patients. 3) Pharmacodynamic model: using an empirical logistic model the reduction of the acute risk was linked to the cariporide plasma-concentrations. In a sub-study of the GUARDIAN-main study, the population PK model ofthe phase I development in volunteers had been be validated. Usingthe individual dosing, the individual demographic information and thepopulation PK model mean concentrations were calculated for the periodof the highest risk during the CABG procedure. Those concentrationswere then introduced into the analysis of the concentration timedependency of the event probability. A lower threshold concentration (0.5mg/l) was estimated beneath thatno effect would be expected. The data permitted the estimation of themaximum effect only insufficiently. A maximum risk reduction of 60%was estimated with a confidence interval from 29% to 100%. Using thelinear approximation of the Hill-model an upper thresholdconcentration of 0.9mg/l could be determined. Mean concentrationsunder risk were reached above the lower threshold concentration inonly 37% of all patients in the 80mg dose group, whereas in the 120mgdose-group already 75% of the patients exceeded the lower thresholdconcentration. The infusion of 120mg cariporide for an hour followed by a maintenancedose of 20mg/h for further 47 hours should maintain in 95% of thepatients during the CABG-procedure mean concentrations above theminimal effective concentration of 0.5mg/l. A dose regimen optimisedin this sense by means of simulations should lead to an increasedprotection against ischemic events during and after theCABG-operation. A further increase of the maintenance dose up to40mg/h with a corresponding adaptation of the initial dose shouldshift at least 95% of the patients above the so far impreciseestimated upper threshold concentration of 0.9mg. If no dose limitingside-effects occur, this increase of both the initial dose and themaintenance dose may lead to a further improvement during the riskperiod and may result in a further potential clinical advantage forcariporide.