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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
1

The application of PROMETHEE multi-criteria decision aid in financial decision making: case of distress prediction models evaluation

Mousavi, Mohammad M., Lin, J. 2020 May 1922 (has links)
No / Conflicting rankings corresponding to alternative performance criteria and measures are mostly reported in the mono-criterion evaluation of competing distress prediction models (DPMs). To overcome this issue, this study extends the application of the expert system to corporate credit risk and distress prediction through proposing a Multi-criteria Decision Aid (MCDA), namely PROMETHEE II, which provides a multi-criteria evaluation of competing DPMs. In addition, using data on Chinese firms listed on Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, we perform an exhaustive comparative analysis of the most popular DPMs; namely, statistical, artificial intelligence and machine learning models under both mono-criterion and multi-criteria frameworks. Further, we address two prevailing research questions; namely, "which DPM performs better in predicting distress?" and "will training models with corporate governance indicators (CGIs) enhance the performance of models?”; and discuss our findings. Our multi-criteria ranking suggests that non-parametric DPMs outperform parametric ones, where random forest and bagging CART are among the best machine learning DPMs. Further, models fed with CGIs as features outperform those fed without CGIs.

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