The present thesis deals with the influnence of moisture flux and variables, it is derived from, on rainfall in Europe. Sources of this thesis are the NCAR/NCEP and the ERA-40 reanalysis and the GPCC and the ECA&D rainfall databases. A western moisture flux prevails on studied 850 hPa isobaric level, it reaches the highest intensities over the Atlantic around 55th parallel of latitude. There is the highest correlation between moisture flux magnitude and monthly rainfall in winter on the western coast of Europe and it decreases in summer and eastwards. The correlation is very weak or none in some parts of Europe, especially in the eastern Mediterranean. Extremely wet months are related with different intensive moisture flux directions in different parts of Europe, for example there is the highest correlation of monthly rainfall with the northern moisture flux in the Czech Republic. Several selected heavy precipitation episodes in Europe are presented in this thesis - during them the moisture flux anomaly is observed, but it differs in orientation and intensity. A high wind speed causes this anomaly more frequently than a humidity. This does not apply to every event, furher research is needed to draw general patterns of moisture flux during high precipitation events.

The need to establish the long-term precipitation led many authors to try to understand why regulators of interannual climate variability over the Northeast of Brazil. Fluctuations in the equatorial Pacific SST acts as a modulator of climate on various time scales and are associated with the phenomenon (El Niño / Southern Oscillation). We analyzed the patterns of monthly and quarterly precipitation in Northeast Brazil (with emphasis on the eastern part of Northeast Brazil), related to the anomalies of surface temperatures of the equatorial Pacific and south Atlantic, from the SST data obtained from the Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data System and precipitation data from the universe as we know from Delaware from 1950 to 1999. The monthly precipitation by the phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and rainfall were arranged both quarterly and lag. Were defined conditions of El Niño: positive anomaly; positive derivative; positive derivative if and only if the anomalies were positive and the anomaly index Interoceanic (AI). The best parameter for prediction of quarterly rainfall within the rainy season in NE, was the condition of positive derivative of the SST of the Pacific, one month before the rain (lag1) with positive correlation of 0.3 to 95% of significance, falling to 0.2 (lag2), from February to May versus April-July rainfall. The study confirmed the low levels of correlation, have been mentioned by other authors about the ENE and the SST anomalies in the equatorial Pacific. The monthly mean SST anomalies in the South Atlantic and equatorial Pacific combined showed best results when correlated with monthly precipitation over northern northeast Brazil. On the east of NE was positive correlation of 0.5, on the north of NE was 0.6, decreasing to 0.3 correlation over southern northeast at 95% significance. The two signals combined accounted for (r = 0.7) 49% of the variability in signal Comparable with isolated Pacific, which was correlated with seasonal rainfall. The increase in estimates of rainfall over east of NE occurred from the inclusion of the Atlantic SST anomalies and considered during the calculation of the average normal changes of signal detected in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. / Fundação de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado de Alagoas / A necessidade em prever a precipitação a longo prazo levaram muitos autores a tentar compreender os motivos reguladores da variabilidade interanual climática sobre o Nordeste do Brasil. As flutuações nas TSM do Pacífico equatorial atuam como um modulador climático em várias escalas de tempo e estão associados ao fenômeno (El Niño / Oscilação Sul). Analisamos os padrões mensais e quadrimestrais da precipitação do Nordeste do Brasil (com ênfase sobre a parte leste do Nordeste do Brasil), relacionadas às anomalias das temperaturas da superfície dos oceanos Pacífico equatorial e Atlântico sul, a partir dos dados de TSM obtidos do Compreensiv Ocean-Atmosphere Data System e dos dados de precipitação da Universidade de Delaware entre 1950 a 1999. As precipitações mensais pelas fases da Oscilação Decadal do Pacífico e as precipitações quadrimestral foram dispostas simultaneamente e em lag. Foram definidas condições de El-Niño: anomalia positiva; derivada positiva; derivada positiva se e somente se as anomalias fossem positivas e o índice anomalia Interoceânica (AI). O melhor parâmetro de prognóstico da precipitação quadrimestral, dentro da estação chuvosa do ENE, foi a condição de derivada positiva das TSM do Pacifico, um mês antes da chuva (lag1), com de correlação positiva de 0,3 a 95% de significância, caindo para 0,2 (lag2), de fevereiro-maio versus as chuvas abril-julho. Confirmaram-se os baixos índices de correlação, já foram mencionados por outros autores a respeito do ENE e as anomalias da TSM do Pacífico equatorial. As anomalias da TSM médias mensais do Atlântico sul e Pacífico equatorial combinadas mostraram melhores resultados quando correlacionadas com a precipitação mensal sobre o NEB. Sobre o ENE correlação positiva de 0,5; no NNE foi de 0,6; caindo para 0,3 de correlação no SNE a 95% de significância. Os dois sinais combinados responderam por (r=0,7) 49% da variabilidade comparado ao sinal isolado do Pacífico, correlacionado com a precipitação quadrimestral. O aumento na previsão das precipitações sobre o ENE se deu a partir da inclusão das anomalias da TSM do Atlântico e por considerar durante o cálculo das médias normais as mudanças de sinal verificadas na Oscilação Decadal do Pacífico.