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The main objective of this study is to analyze the effects cotton quality has on hedging and basis movements within the cotton market to help market participants minimize price risk. The effectiveness of using cotton futures in hedging price risk will be determined by calculating optimal hedge ratios by tenderable quality. Hedge ratios will be calculated using simple differences and error correction models (ECM) on overlapping price data, estimated under both generalized least squares (GLS) and maximum likelihood estimation (MLE). An empirical analysis shows that as cotton quality improves, the optimal hedge ratio decreases. ECMs estimated under GLS are found to be most efficient. It is also found that cotton classing data by quality has no significant effect on cotton basis. Farmers and merchandisers can take these results as a framework to better manage price and basis risk in the hedge and speculative scenarios.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-01-26T18:56:19Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao Fabio Echer.pdf: 259570 bytes, checksum: 1d7672a3038be57952859a8855197453 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2008-10-28 / An experiment was carried out on a commercial cotton crop, in Sapezal MT, in farm year 2007/2008, with the objective of evaluating the effect of different sources of potassium in cover fertilization, on biometric attributes, production components, quality of fibers, economic viability and the nutritional status of cotton plants. The outline used was complete blocks at random, with five repetitions, whose treatments were comprised of cover application of 100 kg ha-1 of K2O from sources KCl, K2SO4, KNO3 and K2SO4.2MgSO4. The nutrient content found in the cotton leaves at blooming was evaluated, being interpreted by the critical level method and by the DRIS method. Both critical level method and DRIS were efficient in detecting differences in leaf nutrient contents and, the content of S in cotton leaves was highest for applications of fertilizer with K2SO4.2MgSO4. IBN was coherent between its values and the productivity of the treatments, with the highest productivities being obtained with the lowest IBN in potassium cover fertilization with the source K2SO4.2MgSO4. Potassium based fertilization of the cover with source K2SO4.2MgSO4 afforded highest plant height and higher agricultural productivity, however, these results were not confirmed by increased fiber quality and economic profitability of the cotton crop. Given its lower cost, KCl is the most economically viable source of fertilizer K for cover of cotton crops. / Conduziu-se um experimento em lavoura comercial de algodão, em Sapezal MT, no ano agrícola 2007/2008, com o objetivo de avaliar o efeito de diferentes fontes de potássio na adubação de cobertura, sobre atributos biométricos, componentes de produção, qualidade de fibras, viabilidade econômica e sobre o estado nutricional do algodoeiro. O delineamento utilizado foi o de blocos completos ao acaso, com cinco repetições, cujos tratamentos constaram da aplicação em cobertura de 100 kg ha-1 de K2O nas fontes KCl, K2SO4, KNO3 e K2SO4.2MgSO4. Avaliaram-se os teores de nutrientes nas folhas de algodão no florescimento, sendo interpretados pelo método do nível crítico e pelo DRIS. Tanto o método do nível crítico quanto o DRIS foram eficientes na detecção de diferenças nos teores foliares de nutrientes e, o teor de S nas folhas de algodão foi maior com a utilização do adubo K2SO4.2MgSO4. O IBN apresentou coerência entre os seus valores e as produtividades dos tratamentos, sendo as maiores produtividades obtidas com o menor IBN na adubação potássica de cobertura na fonte K2SO4.2MgSO4. A adubação potássica de cobertura com a fonte K2SO4.2MgSO4 proporcionou a maior altura de plantas e a produtividade agrícola mais elevada, porém, estes resultados não se confirmaram em aumentos de qualidade de fibra e rentabilidade econômica do algodão. Em razão do menor custo, o fertilizante KCl é a fonte de K mais viável economicamente para a cobertura na lavoura de algodão.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-07-18T17:51:03Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao Fabio Echer.pdf: 259570 bytes, checksum: 1d7672a3038be57952859a8855197453 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2008-10-28 / An experiment was carried out on a commercial cotton crop, in Sapezal MT, in farm year 2007/2008, with the objective of evaluating the effect of different sources of potassium in cover fertilization, on biometric attributes, production components, quality of fibers, economic viability and the nutritional status of cotton plants. The outline used was complete blocks at random, with five repetitions, whose treatments were comprised of cover application of 100 kg ha-1 of K2O from sources KCl, K2SO4, KNO3 and K2SO4.2MgSO4. The nutrient content found in the cotton leaves at blooming was evaluated, being interpreted by the critical level method and by the DRIS method. Both critical level method and DRIS were efficient in detecting differences in leaf nutrient contents and, the content of S in cotton leaves was highest for applications of fertilizer with K2SO4.2MgSO4. IBN was coherent between its values and the productivity of the treatments, with the highest productivities being obtained with the lowest IBN in potassium cover fertilization with the source K2SO4.2MgSO4. Potassium based fertilization of the cover with source K2SO4.2MgSO4 afforded highest plant height and higher agricultural productivity, however, these results were not confirmed by increased fiber quality and economic profitability of the cotton crop. Given its lower cost, KCl is the most economically viable source of fertilizer K for cover of cotton crops. / Conduziu-se um experimento em lavoura comercial de algodão, em Sapezal MT, no ano agrícola 2007/2008, com o objetivo de avaliar o efeito de diferentes fontes de potássio na adubação de cobertura, sobre atributos biométricos, componentes de produção, qualidade de fibras, viabilidade econômica e sobre o estado nutricional do algodoeiro. O delineamento utilizado foi o de blocos completos ao acaso, com cinco repetições, cujos tratamentos constaram da aplicação em cobertura de 100 kg ha-1 de K2O nas fontes KCl, K2SO4, KNO3 e K2SO4.2MgSO4. Avaliaram-se os teores de nutrientes nas folhas de algodão no florescimento, sendo interpretados pelo método do nível crítico e pelo DRIS. Tanto o método do nível crítico quanto o DRIS foram eficientes na detecção de diferenças nos teores foliares de nutrientes e, o teor de S nas folhas de algodão foi maior com a utilização do adubo K2SO4.2MgSO4. O IBN apresentou coerência entre os seus valores e as produtividades dos tratamentos, sendo as maiores produtividades obtidas com o menor IBN na adubação potássica de cobertura na fonte K2SO4.2MgSO4. A adubação potássica de cobertura com a fonte K2SO4.2MgSO4 proporcionou a maior altura de plantas e a produtividade agrícola mais elevada, porém, estes resultados não se confirmaram em aumentos de qualidade de fibra e rentabilidade econômica do algodão. Em razão do menor custo, o fertilizante KCl é a fonte de K mais viável economicamente para a cobertura na lavoura de algodão.