Bitcoin is an unregulated digital currency originally introduced in 2008 without legal tender status. Based on a decentralized peer-to-peer network to confirm transactions and generate a limited amount of new bitcoins, it functions without the backing of a central bank or any other monitoring authority. In recent years, Bitcoin has seen increasing media coverage and trading volume, as well as major capital gains and losses in a high volatility environment. Interestingly, an analysis of Bitcoin returns shows remarkably low correlations with traditional investment assets such as other currencies, stocks, bonds or commodities such as gold or oil. In this paper, we shed light on the impact an investment in Bitcoin can have on an already well-diversified investment portfolio. Due to the non-normal nature of Bitcoin returns, we do not propose the classic mean-variance approach, but adopt a Conditional Value-at-Risk framework that does not require asset returns to be normally distributed. Our results indicate that Bitcoin should be included in optimal portfolios. Even though an investment in Bitcoin increases the CVaR of a portfolio, this additional risk is overcompensated by high returns leading to better return-risk ratios.

This paper examines the relationship between virtual currency, the Bitcoin, and the real economy. In the first part the description of the term virtual currency is provided with special focus on Bitcoin. Also the legal and taxation issues are discussed. In the main part the volatility of Bitcoin is inspected using various models from Autoregressive heteroskedasticity models family. We found that the volatility of Bitcoin differs significantly through time and that this relation is captured best by T-GARCH (1,1) model. Finally the relationship between Bitcoin and real economy indicators is observed to be inconsistent and mostly insignificant in time. Thus we conclude that the independency of Bitcoin cannot be rejected. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)

A crise de 2008 deflagrou uma onda de questionamentos em relação à contribuição social dos bancos dada às inovações financeiras que atendiam desejos gananciosos enquanto milhões de pessoas continuavam excluídas de crédito e de cidadania, tem-se aí um quadro de crise de legitimidade. O desafio da sustentabilidade se torna cada vez mais popular, fazendo com que a crescente preocupação com os impactos socioambientais das nossas ações seja incorporada ao conjunto de valores da sociedade com impacto, também, sobre a licença social para os bancos existirem, dado que por trás de muitos empreendimentos que devastam nossos capitais social e natural tem o financiamento bancário. O que fazer perante uma crise desta? Trabalhar para retornar ao estado anterior à eclosão do problema ou assumir a responsabilidade para a mudança? Esta tese visa a olhar como os bancos podem responder aos desafios deste cenário de convergências de crise (notadamente, uma econômica e outra ambiental). Mostramos que ao adotarem a transição para a sustentabilidade como negócio central implicando em práticas que não parecem economicamente atraentes (ou responsável), como o financiamento para atingir uma escala ótima de produção e consumo, o fomento ao decrescimento ou à estabilização para manter esta escala, o uso de moedas complementares junto a moedas convencionais e a organização de processos em rede, na verdade, estão desenvolvendo e explorando a nova fonte de vantagem competitiva e de manutenção dos bancos a longo prazo, trazendo diversos benefícios para a empresa e para a sociedade, numa verdadeira relação simbiótica. / The 2008 crisis triggered a wave of questions concerning the social contribution of banks given the financial innovations that met greedy desires while millions of people were still excluded from credit and citizenship, that brings us to a legitimacy crisis. The sustainability challenge becomes increasingly popular, that is, or growing concern about the social and environmental impacts of our actions becomes embedded in our societys set of values. That has a strong impact on the social license for banks to operate, given that many projects that devastate our social and natural capital are bank financed. What to do before such a crisis? Work hard to return to the state before the onset of the problem or take responsibility for change? This thesis aims to answer how banks can meet the challenges of this scenario of converging crises (notably, an economic and an environmental crisis). We show that by adopting the transition to sustainability as a core business resulting in practices that do not seem economically attractive (or responsible), as funding to achieve an optimal scale of production and consumption, and then promoting the decrease or stabilization to maintain this scale, the use of complementary currencies with conventional ones and creating network processes, in fact, are actually developing and exploring the new source of competitive advantage and maintenance of banks operations in the long term, bringing many benefits to companies and to society, in a true symbiotic relationship.

Práce komplexně popisuje současné alternativní možnosti on-line plateb v prostředí Internetu. Práce sleduje trendy a vývoj v oblasti e-Payment systémů, včetně praktického využití pro účely on-line obchodování v České republice. Důraz je kladen především na systémy ktyté zlatem, systém e-gold.

This work focuses on local (complementary) currencies. Their usage and appearance throughout history indicate counter-cyclicity with Great Depression and Argentine recession in 2002 as leading examples. Also previous research of Stodder (2009) proved counter-cyclicity in usage of Swiss complementary currency WIR. However, USA at the beginning of 90' and Germany after year 2000 experienced new wave of local currencies without being accompanied by any severe crisis. Have they become pro-cyclical? I tried to answer this question empirically with simple econometric model using macroeconomic indicators as explanatory variables. Results showed that number of new local currencies is in Germany pro-cyclical which supports previous works about regional distribution of currencies in Germany. Results from USA are inconclusive but indicate rather counter-cyclicity. In both countries was proved positive correlation with amount of already working currencies.

FOREX technical analysis indicators, their characteristics and capabilities are researched in this final master thesis. The main goal of this thesis is to determine if technical analysis indicators can recognise patterns in price movements and if they can predict future price movement. The first part of the thesis presents with FOREX theoretical aspects, its characteristics and participants. In the second part of the thesis FOREX analysis tools are overviewed, focusing on technical analysis. Most popular technical analysis indicators are analyzed. The third part of the thesis provides with the essentials of FOREX trading strategy creation using technical analysis. In the fourth part the FOREX trading strategy using technical analysis is created and tested. The results of the trading strategy are presented and analyzed. Last part of the thesis contains the summary of the thesis, conclusions and suggestions. Thesis has 6 parts: introduction, theoretical and practical sections, conclusions and suggestions, references. Structure: introduction, theoretical and practical sections, conclusions and suggestions, references. Thesis consist of: 66 p. text without appendixes, 23 pictures, 5 tables, 62 bibliographical entries. Appendixes included. / Šiame baigiamajame magistro darbe nagrinėjami FOREX rinkos analizei naudojami techniniai indikatoriai, jų savybės bei galimybės. Pagrindinis baigiamojo darbo tikslas yra nustatyti, ar techninės analizės indikatoriai gali nustatyti vaiutų kainų kitimo pasikartojančius modelius ir ar jie gali numatyti kainų judėjimą ateityje. Pirmojoje baigiamojo darbo dalyje pristatomi teoriniai FOREX rinkos aspektai, jos dalyviai bei charakteristika. Antrojoje baigiamojo darbo dalyje apžvelgiami FOREX analizės įrankiai, išskiriant techninę analizę. Aprašomi populiariausi techninės analizės indikatoriai. Trečiojoje baigiamojo darbo dalyje nagrinėjami pagrindiniai prekybos FOREX rinkoje strategijos kūrimo naudojant techninę analizę elementai. Ketvirtojoje baigiamojo darbo dalyje kuriama ir testuojama prekybos FOREX rinkoje strategija naudojant techninę analizę. Pateikiami prekybos strategijos rezultatai bei jų analizė. Paskutinėje baigiamojo darbo dalyje, remiantis gautais rezultatais, pateikiamos išvados ir pasiūlymai. Darbą sudaro 6 dalys: įvadas, teorinė, praktinė dalys, išvados ir siūlymai, literatūros sąrašas. Darbo apimtis – 66 p. teksto be priedų, 23 iliustr., 5 lent., 62 bibliografiniai šaltiniai. Atskirai pridedami darbo priedai.

Šiame baigiamajame bakalauro darbe tiriamas strategijų, paremtų technine analize, taikymas prekyboje Forex rinkoje. Pirmiausia teorinėje dalyje nagrinėjama pasaulinės valiutų rinkos sistema, aptariami privataus asmens dalyvavimo šioje rinkoje aspektai. Po to atskleidžiama techninės analizės specifika, pateikiant jos sampratą, pagrindines priemones bei teorinius, techninės analizės pagrindu sudarytos, strategijos formavimo principus. Praktinėje dalyje vertinamos, pagal teorinėje dalyje atskleistus principus, sudarytų strategijų efektyvumas Forex rinkoje analizuojant istorinius duomenis. Atliekant tyrimą buvo naudojamos šešios valiutų poros, siekiant įvertinti techninės analizės efektyvumo priklausomybę nuo valiutų poros likvidumo. Rašant darbą buvo naudotasi Lietuvos bei užsienio autorių moksline literatūra, internetiniais portalais bei Meta Trader 4 programa analizuojant istorinius duomenis. / This Bachelor's thesis analyses on technical analysis based strategies usage in Forex market. At first in theoretical part author looks into the system of Forex market, and presents it from private investor point of view. Later the particularity of technical analysis is presented by inducting it‘s definition, basic instruments and theoretical on technical analysis based strategies forming principles. In practical part the efficiency of technical analysis strategies is tested by analysing historical data. In this research six currencies pairs were used in order to value the relation between efficency of technical analysis and currency pair liquidity. In writing of thesis author used Lithuanian and foreigner authors literature, internet sites and Meta Trader 4 program by analysing historical data.

O objetivo deste trabalho é discutir a relação entre crescimento econômico e endividamento público. Para isso, o trabalho inicia com uma análise histórica mostrando a evolução do endividamento público e do sistema monetário ao longo dos últimos séculos, discutindo também alguns episódios clássicos de crises de dívida. Em um segundo momento, o trabalho discute os determinantes para a sustentabilidade da dívida pública através da abordagem de conceitos como original sin, debt intolerance, currency mismatches e sudden stops. Com a análise histórica e a definição de alguns dos principais determinantes da sustentabilidade da dívida pública, o trabalho encerra com a discussão a respeito da relação entre crescimento econômico e endividamento público, contrastando as visões ortodoxas e heterodoxas sobre o tema. Através desta análise conclui-se que não é possível afirmar que existe relação negativa entre crescimento econômico e endividamento público como defendem os autores ortodoxos. Além disso, a assimetria do sistema monetário mundial, elemento pouco presente nas análises ortodoxas, é uma fonte importante de tensões na gestão da dívida pública. / The objective of this dissertation is to discuss the relationship between economic growth and public debt. For that, this dissertation begins with a historic analysis showing the evolution of public debt and of the monetary system over the past centuries, discussing also some classic episodes of debt crises. In a second stage, this dissertation discusses the determinants for public debt sustainability by addressing concepts like original sin, debt intolerance, currency mismatches and sudden stops. With the historical analysis and the definition of some key determinants of public debt sustainability, the work concludes with a discussion about the relationship between economic growth and public debt, contrasting the orthodox and heterodox views on the subject. Through this analysis it follows that it is not possible to say that there is a negative relationship between economic growth and public debt as the orthodox argue. Furthermore, the asymmetry of the global monetary system, a little discussed element in the orthodox analysis, is an important source of tensions in the management of public debt.

O objetivo deste trabalho é discutir a relação entre crescimento econômico e endividamento público. Para isso, o trabalho inicia com uma análise histórica mostrando a evolução do endividamento público e do sistema monetário ao longo dos últimos séculos, discutindo também alguns episódios clássicos de crises de dívida. Em um segundo momento, o trabalho discute os determinantes para a sustentabilidade da dívida pública através da abordagem de conceitos como original sin, debt intolerance, currency mismatches e sudden stops. Com a análise histórica e a definição de alguns dos principais determinantes da sustentabilidade da dívida pública, o trabalho encerra com a discussão a respeito da relação entre crescimento econômico e endividamento público, contrastando as visões ortodoxas e heterodoxas sobre o tema. Através desta análise conclui-se que não é possível afirmar que existe relação negativa entre crescimento econômico e endividamento público como defendem os autores ortodoxos. Além disso, a assimetria do sistema monetário mundial, elemento pouco presente nas análises ortodoxas, é uma fonte importante de tensões na gestão da dívida pública. / The objective of this dissertation is to discuss the relationship between economic growth and public debt. For that, this dissertation begins with a historic analysis showing the evolution of public debt and of the monetary system over the past centuries, discussing also some classic episodes of debt crises. In a second stage, this dissertation discusses the determinants for public debt sustainability by addressing concepts like original sin, debt intolerance, currency mismatches and sudden stops. With the historical analysis and the definition of some key determinants of public debt sustainability, the work concludes with a discussion about the relationship between economic growth and public debt, contrasting the orthodox and heterodox views on the subject. Through this analysis it follows that it is not possible to say that there is a negative relationship between economic growth and public debt as the orthodox argue. Furthermore, the asymmetry of the global monetary system, a little discussed element in the orthodox analysis, is an important source of tensions in the management of public debt.

O objetivo deste trabalho é discutir a relação entre crescimento econômico e endividamento público. Para isso, o trabalho inicia com uma análise histórica mostrando a evolução do endividamento público e do sistema monetário ao longo dos últimos séculos, discutindo também alguns episódios clássicos de crises de dívida. Em um segundo momento, o trabalho discute os determinantes para a sustentabilidade da dívida pública através da abordagem de conceitos como original sin, debt intolerance, currency mismatches e sudden stops. Com a análise histórica e a definição de alguns dos principais determinantes da sustentabilidade da dívida pública, o trabalho encerra com a discussão a respeito da relação entre crescimento econômico e endividamento público, contrastando as visões ortodoxas e heterodoxas sobre o tema. Através desta análise conclui-se que não é possível afirmar que existe relação negativa entre crescimento econômico e endividamento público como defendem os autores ortodoxos. Além disso, a assimetria do sistema monetário mundial, elemento pouco presente nas análises ortodoxas, é uma fonte importante de tensões na gestão da dívida pública. / The objective of this dissertation is to discuss the relationship between economic growth and public debt. For that, this dissertation begins with a historic analysis showing the evolution of public debt and of the monetary system over the past centuries, discussing also some classic episodes of debt crises. In a second stage, this dissertation discusses the determinants for public debt sustainability by addressing concepts like original sin, debt intolerance, currency mismatches and sudden stops. With the historical analysis and the definition of some key determinants of public debt sustainability, the work concludes with a discussion about the relationship between economic growth and public debt, contrasting the orthodox and heterodox views on the subject. Through this analysis it follows that it is not possible to say that there is a negative relationship between economic growth and public debt as the orthodox argue. Furthermore, the asymmetry of the global monetary system, a little discussed element in the orthodox analysis, is an important source of tensions in the management of public debt.