This dissertation investigates several business cycle relationships when economic agents are heterogeneous. The particular focus is on the interactions between the cross-section of agents and the aggregate state of the economy. The first chapter shows that, when occasionally binding capacity constraints limit the production of heterogeneous firms, demand shocks can endogenously generate a number of important business cycle regularities: recessions are deeper than booms are high, firm-level volatility is countercyclical, the aggregate Solow residual is procyclical and the fiscal multiplier is countercyclical. A baseline calibration of a basic New Keynesian DSGE model with capacity constraints shows that this mechanism can explain more than a quarter of the empirically observed asymmetry in output, and matches the cyclicality of firm-level profitability dispersion and of the measured Solow residual. The model implies fluctuations in the fiscal multiplier of around 0.12 between expansions and recessions. Chapter two takes a different approach to firm level uncertainty, exploring how recessions can cause an endogenous rise in firm risk. If heterogeneous firms face real and financial frictions, then a shock to the mean of aggregate productivity endogenously leads to countercyclical profitability risk through firms' heterogeneous responses in price setting. Additionally, the mechanism endogenously generates countercyclical credit spreads and credit spread dispersion. The model explains a large share of the observed fluctuations in profitability dispersion (69%) and in credit spreads (40%) through fluctuations in aggregate TFP holding productivity risk constant. This suggests that the scope for uncertainty shocks to explain recessions may be smaller than previously thought. The third chapter focuses on distributional effects of oil price shocks on the household side. In the model, household behavior replicates two patterns found in household-level data which show that gas consumption increases with income, but on the intensive margin gasoline consumption as a share of the household's budget decreases with income. The model includes gas consumption in household utility on top of a fixed minimum level of gas consumption. Calibrated simulations suggest that a shock to the gas price is almost twice as costly for relatively poor households than for relatively rich households. / text

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Red grouse (<I>Lagopus lagopus scoticus </I>Lath.) populations often show cycles in numbers. It has been suggested that these are caused by positive feedback between population kin structure and recruitment of young cocks to the territorial population, and by negative feedback between population density and recruitment. In previous studies of red grouse in north-east Scotland, recruitment was the key demographic factor affecting population change. Changes in recruitment were the result of changes in breeding success and changes in the proportion of young cocks establishing territories in autumn. This thesis investigates the differences between those young males which successfully established a territory and those that did not, on a heather moorland on the edge of the Cairngorm mountains, north-east Scotland. It describes the behaviour and movements of young cocks during the period of territory establishment. In particular it is shown that young cocks which had more close relatives as neighbours were more likely to establish a territory. However, investigation of the effect of relatedness on the aggressive interactions between cocks did not reveal any robust behavioural mechanism by which this relationship might have come about. Relatedness between individuals was estimated from microsatellite genetic data. Young cocks which established territories had larger supra-orbital combs than those which did not. This suggests that hormonal status is important in determining recruitment success, since comb size is an indicator of the level of circulating androgens of an individual. Territory establishment by young cocks took place rapidly in mid-September following the break up of broods. Young cocks were never observed to win encounters with old established cocks during territory establishment. Persistence in engaging in encounters may be more important than winning them.

It has long been recognised that the life cycles of the major exploited ommastrephid squid species are closely related to oceanographic features, and that environmental variability may provide a significant stimulus for variability in the species abundance and distribution. In this thesis, the relationship between oceanographic processes and population variability for the ommastrephid squid <i>Martialia hyadesi</i> in the western South Atlantic is investigated using a geographic information system (GIS) (ARC/INFO^(c) v. 7.2.1., ESRI Inc. 1999). From this analysis, it was clear that the oceanographic environment of the region does influence the abundance and distribution of <i>M. hyadesi</i>. However, the precise mechanisms by which this occurs are not determined. In the west of the study region, near the Patagonian Shelf, it appears that the distribution of <i>M. hyadesi</i> is intimately linked to that of the Falkland (Malvinas) Current, and that variability in the behaviour of this current may influence the annual abundance of the squid in the Patagonian Shelf squid fisheries. In the waters around the Falkland Islands (Malvinas), it appears that the 'population' of <i>M. hyadesi</i> may exist in two alternate states depending on its abundance. In most years, the squid occur at low densities, widely dispersed both in time and space. In exceptional years, the squid are far more abundant and are both spatially and temporarily aggregated. Although, no small juvenile or paralarval specimens of <i>M. hyadesi</i> were collected during this study, such specimens were collected for other squid species, and their distribution was successfully related to environmental factors. Both water mass type and water depth influenced the number of squid caught, and appeared to influence the species composition of the catches. Evidence was also found supporting the hypothesis that <i>M. hyadesi</i> does not occur near South Georgia during the austral summer and is extremely unlikely to spawn there.

This thesis consists of three essays in Political Economy: “China’s Political Business Cycle” uncovers the fact that the timing of China’s business cycle correlates to the timing of the Communist Party’s Congress and constructs a theory to explain the mechanism of the political business cycle. An empirical test of the theory derives a result consistent with the predictions of the theory. “A Theory of Dynastic Cycle” provides a politico-economic theory to explain the mechanism of the dynastic cycle, a repeating pattern in China’s theory. The core of the theory is the ruler’s trade-off between the political account and the economic account in choosing a successor. “A Politico-Economic Theory of Corruption in Non-Democracy” investigates the ruler’s incentive to have corrupt agents. The key point is that a corrupt agent has a bad reputation and is less likely to replace the incumbent ruler. The major implication is that unless there is fundamental institutional change, it is hard to eradicate corruption in non-democracy.

This thesis is concerned with acquisition activity in the UK and, specifically the prediction of takeovers. This is an important area for research for three reasons. Firstly, acquisition activity involves a small number of companies but creates very large sums of money. Secondly, acquisition activity can alter the composition of a company or an entire industry very rapidly making it a valuable tool for business. Lastly, there are many different topics within this field, allowing for a wealth of empirical analysis. A considerable amount of early research was limited to observation leaving some theories with little empirical backing. In addition, many earlier papers do not consider economic conditions. Recently the UK has experienced a boom and a recession. Both of these events may have effected acquisition activity and will be incorporated into this study. This thesis tackles several issues concerning acquisitions. Firstly, it deals with the level of acquisition activity and determines whether this behaviour is random or predictable. If it is predictable it should be possible to model this behaviour using appropriate indicators. The second issue is the prediction of takeovers identifying the companies likely to become involved in acquisitions. This study incorporates both accounting data and macro-economic factors. Finally, there is an analysis of acquisition benefits, considering the impact on share prices. The findings here suggest that the level of acquisition activity is predictable. However, in a boom it rises to an unprecedented level, demonstrating bubble-like properties. The empirical work concerning the prediction of acquisitions suggests that takeovers increase firm efficiency and remove poor managers. Furthermore, acquiring companies seek expansion and increased investment opportunities. Examining macro-economic conditions suggests funding and cash flow are important when acquiring in a boom, whilst productivity and market protection are vital in a recession. Finally, it appears that the target firm shareholders benefit irrespective of the outcome of the takeover.

In 1938 Dunlop challenged the assertion in the General Theory that wages moved countercyclically. The resulting debate on the cyclical movement of wages deserves study as an episode in the history of economic thought. This is done in chapter 2 which reviews the theoretical issues and chapter 3 which reviews the empirical work. To understand this history requires some analysis of the meaning and significance of the debate. At one level the debate can be interpreted as the search for a 'stylised fact'. This is apparently an empirical question and part of the thesis will be concerned to use data for various countries, time-periods, cycle phases, and industries to examine whether there is any systematic cyclical pattern in wage movements. The conclusion of the empirical analysis is that there is no such empirical regularity. At a second level the debate was theoretical. The empirical observation that wages moved procyc1ica1ly was thought to falsify a prevailing theory. What is interesting about this debate is the light it sheds on the response of economists to apparent falsification. A third level of the debate is the issue of inference. Keynes tended to treat theory as prior, attacking 'pseudo natural science procedures'. Keynes was not opposed in principle to statistical work informing theory: although in practice he did not attempt the empirical investigation into cyclical wages for which he called. Thus from a different methodological standpoint Burns and Mitchell criticise the theorist who 'often stops before his work is finished'. Current econometrics would emphasise the need for identifying assumptions before estimates could be used to test hypotheses. In this framework, the implications for theory of any reduced form regularity would be ambiguous in the absence on non-data based identifying assumptions. This thesis uses the history of the debate and the empirical analysis to illustrate these themes of observation, theory and inference.

The thesis begins with a cursory discussion of the Classical literary and visual sources for Renaissance uomini illustri cycles. The conveyance of these specific Classical sources to medieval France is touched upon, which leads to the rebirth of the uomini illustri genre in the guise of the chivalric NeufPreux. The discussion of the conceptual and artistic genesis of the uomini illustri genre creates an extensive time line, with some lacuna, that allows us to visualize the development of this theme right up to Renaissance Italy. A synopsis of the many uomini illustri cycles on the Italian peninsula is then given. The significance that the cycles may have embodied in relation to the environment for which they were created, as well as the meaning that they may have held for the viewer and patron is examined. Subsequently, a biography of Francesco di Marco Datini is given, touching on his early sojourn in Avignon, his activities in Italy during the construction and decoration of the Palazzo Datini, as well as his artistic patronage as a whole. Datini's friendships with the foremost humanist thinkers of the time is analyzed. This study, as well as the analysis of Francesco di Marco Datini as a merchant and a man living on the cusp between the Tre and Quattrocento, provides the context in which to visualize the creation of the uomini illustri cycle in Palazzo Datini, although the decoration of the cortile extends beyond simply the representation of historical figures to include virtues, vices, the sciences and philosophers, a trait common in other contemporary uomini illustri cycles. The complicated and diverse stages of the construction and decoration of Palazzo Datini is closely scrutinized, so that together with documentary evidence from the fecund Archivio di Stato di Prato (much of which has not been previously published) a clear reconstruction of the building of the palazzo and its decoration can be given for the first time. I discuss the careers of artists working for Datini, particularly Niccolo v di Piero Gerini, the main artist working on the extended uomini illustri cycle of Palazzo Datini. The final goal is the physical, iconographical, and conceptual reconstruction of the courtyard decoration of Palazzo Datini.